Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology.
In The Finnish association of graduate engineers (TEK) this discussion led to a decision to develop an own comparative exercise together with VTT.
Gradually this debate led in The Finnish association of graduate engineers (TEK) to the decision to develop an own national performance comparison.
i e. the members of the Finnish association of graduate engineers TEK, young people studying at the senior secondary school level, political decision-makers and business decision-makers.
young people studying at the senior secondary school level, political decision-makers, and business decision-makers. The member group of TEK consists of the organisation's elected union representatives, the council members of the board of trustees,
and its results can be utilized as an aid and support for long-term decisions concerning science, technology, innovation and education.
Political decision-making takes place in an environment characterized by ambiguity of problems and a multitude of conflicting interests between different stakeholders,
IMD or European commission, are valuable for decision-makers in innovation policy, but furthermore the related national comparative examination gives additional and more detailed insights into the discussion of the future development of the national economy and innovation system.
Despite the somewhat different premises of these stakeholder groups the barometer concept has proven to be capable of casting some light into the black boxes of innovation system by focusing decision-makers attention to core subjects,
However, merely drawing the attention of decision-makers is not sufficient for transforming vaguely expressed visions into concrete actions.
Implementing change and guiding desired actions through the decision-making chain requires sound analysis based on quantifiable data that is presented in an understandable format.
thus have a strong operational role in fostering the necessary decisions and providing the necessary facilities for the decisions in order to become materialized.
Despite the political nature of these decision-making processes, the experience gained so far frombarometer clearly indicates that the instrument providing this kind of qualificationsmay influence
The feedback and requests from policy-makers for further information regarding the results of the barometer indicate that there is a call for means of bringing the expertise of the technoscienntifi community to the use and utilization of political decision-makers.
Adaptive foresight is designed to help decision-makers develop strategies. You can do a research project using many of the ideas from AF
Of course, BMBF and its different departments will have the last word in the decisions. But this time,
and is geared mostly towards indirect decision support such as agenda-setting and issue-framing. The slim evidence base aggravates the assessment,
and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized.
Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty does not only require rigorous analysis, but also political will
Scenario planning Decision support Political and institutional context Evaluation 1. Introduction Policy-makers and business leaders often face strategic decisions with uncertain future outcomes.
Decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty is a consequence. Scenario planning has been developed as a method to represent
Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty requires not only rigorous analysis. Even well-constructed, thoroughly analysed scenarios can be of little use and relevance,
and Section 6 synthesizes implications for the future development of the evaluative scenario literature. 2. Functions of scenario planning in the policy-making process The scenario planning literature highlights a wide range of decision support functions 8,
which political decisions are made. One conceptual framework to structure the oftentimes messy processes of policy-making is the concept of the policy cycle 14.
The different functions of scenario planning can be distinguished into indirect and direct forms of scenario-based decision support (17,
is geared it more towards indirect forms of decision support or more geared towards direct forms of decision support,
or is there no clear picture? Which impacts can be observed? 2. Which lessons can be drawn from current practices?
and weaknesses of several different exercises and assessments of the impacts scenario planning approaches can have on decision-making processes Fig. 1. Forms of scenario-based decision support. 1200 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting
some reporting specific laboratory tests of the impact on decisions and some referring to observations of decision processes within organisations 19 21.
A limited relevance for decision-making in policy processes is recognized by a review of practice in the broader area of foresight:
One example is the study of Groves et al. who presented decision aids incorporating scenario concepts in a series of workshops to managers
Treatment of surprise and discontinuities A reason often quoted for using scenario planning as a decision support tool is its ability to reduce overconfidence about the future 35.
while four were decision support exercises. All but one exercise with surprises was developed via an intuitive rather than formal process.
and success of direct and indirect forms of decision support To validate and extend the findings from our literature review,
On the basis of their personal experience, workshop participants were asked to rate the direct and indirect forms of scenario-based decision support both on a scale from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high) with regard to the specific relevance (importance)
Overall, participants identified a higher relevance of more indirect forms of scenario-based decision support. Stimulating wider debates about possible futures and clarifying an issues importance were ranked as the objectives of highest relevance.
Framing a decision-making agendawas scored to be quite relevant butmore difficult to achieve, whereas getting stakeholder engagement and buy in was described as easier to achieve,
Scenario planning can easily clash with established routines of political decision-making which are informed by policy path-dependencies.
The level of political difficulty is higher for these forms of scenario-based decision support, as they touch upon a number of vested interests around policies,
Resulting decisions might appear irrational when evaluated against the framework of scenarios. Another argument concerned a potential mismatch of scenario formats
but fail to contain real value to the decision-making process 35. Our process came to similar conclusions.
and support decision-making include the 5 The Future Analyst Network (FAN-Club) has been established as a permanent network of people dealing with future-related issues in different departments, agencies and the private sector. 1203
Demanding a check of important decisions against a set of more alternative, long-term scenarios could help to broaden the focus of assessments,
Scenario planning is geared more towards indirect forms of decision support in the early phases of the policy cycle,
The compartmentalized structure of modern governments is a key barrier to more integrated policy thinking and decision-making
Does this assessment mean that future efforts should concentrate rather on indirect forms of scenario-based decision support,
Current conditions in many governments and public administrations constrain the ability to effectively pursue direct forms of scenario-based decision support.
and the role and purpose within the decision-making process is not always clear. It is not remarkable to diagnose a limited impact on political decision-making
when the governance conditions for scenario planning are developed not rightfully. The struggle of balancing requests for open-minded
and targeted input into processes of decision-making is apparent. Scenario planning needs to conform to a variety of information demands,
adapt structures and decisions to new insights and trigger more long-term changes in the organisations'overall awareness for constant anticipation, learning and adaptation 12,43.
Ministries can be obliged by regulation, cabinet decision or voluntary agreement, for example, to undertake scenario planning regularly
and recommended decisions than do private sector applications. Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;
or to drive specific decisions (and either might be the case) scenario practitioners need to pay more attention to windows of opportunity, the areas of maximum uncertainty and doubt,
The Prima Approach to Decision support, Springer, Berlin, 2000.25 United states Commission on National Security in the 21st century, New world Coming:
in Decision making, Millennium Project publication, 2001, download at: www. millennium-project. org/millennium/applic-exsum. html (accessed 10/02/09). 30 P. C. Light, The Four Pillars Of high Performance:
and Wild Cards in Global Politics, Brookings Institution Press, WASHINGTON DC, 2007.38 T. Ling, Decision making in the public sector, in:
As a result, there are two general shapes to Foresight studies that flow from early decisions about their procedures and management structure.
and there are no claims from experts The first three enable study by non-expert policy and decision-makers;
that require direct public participation Help meet societal expectations of increased transparency and involvement in decision making.
CSH also seeks to give a voice in the decision making process to those who suffer the consequences.
which the programme managers operate ought to include ways that enable any participant to challenge anonymously decisions relating to their participation,
in all decisions made in the polity in creating the future, a feature pointed out in the 1970s).
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, NY, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
to enhance the reflexivity of actors regarding strategic decisions which can modulate these developments, and larger lock ins (irreversibilities)
entanglements due to sunk investments (Finnish policy), collective decision on technology developer side for soft law, etc.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Impacts and implications of futureorieente technology analysis for policy and decision making Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.
and outcomes of the foresight and strategy process were translated successfully into policy decisions immediately after the exercise.
Jenssen discusses the challenges of inclusivity in a participative foresight process in terms of achieving genuinely democratic decision making.
Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
and by involving different stakeholder groups at corporate decisions. The ability to design adaptive processes is linked
and business decision making a much stronger orientation and capability to address the future in a more systematic way.
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ian Miles Note 1. Reflecting the 2008 FTA Conference emphasis on impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making
2) The use and impact of fta for policy and decision making;(3) FTA in research and innovation;(
and decision-making are two key issues in the field of foresight studies. Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
strategy definition processes supporting the practical decision making on funding. In some form or another there are always strategy processes in national research councils and research programmes.
whether foresight or strategy processes can be designed as a so-called decision machine, which, if designed well enough
and provided with enough information, is able to produce the right strategic decisions. Both the environment-scanning and competence-based approaches are based on the assumption that rational-analytical processes are used in strategic decision-making.
Also, the definition of foresight given by Martin 1995, cited above, gives probably unintentionally the impression that he understands foresight as a rational-analytical process,
but the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists (Lindblom 1959;
Foresight processes form a rational-analytical decision machine, capable of identifying areas that yield the greatest economic and social benefits.
Foresight practitioners (process consultants or core groups) play a major role in these processes, feeding results to decision-makers in charge of implementing the choices.
As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
Decision-making in organisations is often a result of political negotiation between different interests or powers.
Stakeholders and decision-makers in charge of implementing the choices are the major players in these processes; foresight practitioners (process consultants or core groups) and formal processes play relatively minor roles.
A significant amount of the interactions of these actors, including the decisions on how to advance in the process,
and decisions Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 928 P. D. Andersen
The same groups of people also take decisions on the funding activities. Table 1. An overview of the two case studies.
Our study indicates that the impact of foresight exercises on strategic decisions in research councils and programmes can be improved
the process needs to include decision-makers at the national policy level government, politicians and key civil servants at least if implementing the results is important.
and process elements of decisions based on the analyses. The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.
Decisions and organizations. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. March, J. G. 1994. A primer on decision making. How decisions happen.
Newyork: The Free Press. Martin, B. R. 1995. Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 7, no. 2: 139 68.
Martino, J. P. 1983. Technological forecasting for decision making. Newyork: Mcgraw-hill. Miljø-og Energiministeriet. 1996a. National Strategi for Dansk Miljø-og Energiforskning.
Copenhagen: Miljø-og Energiministeriet. Miljø-og Energiministeriet. 1996b. Miljø-og Energiministeriets forskningsstrategi. Copenhagen: Miljø-og Energiministeeriet Miljø-og Energiministeriet. 1996c.
The internal decision bodies of the FNR were satisfied quite with the results presented at the end of the exercise
in fact, several of the recommendations of the process were translated immediately into policy decisions, others are planned to be implemented in the years to Come in spite of this apparent success,
and still has on policy and decision making, at least as far as short-term impacts are concerned. However, in this paper, we would like to take a more systematic look at the impacts the process already has had
Since the turn of the millennium we can observe a shift in policy-making practices from shaping framework conditions and structural settings towards strategic decision making:
and networked character of political decision making and implementtatio (Smits 2002; Smits and Kuhlmann 2004. Initially, the prevailing technocratic and linear process models of policy making (e g. in terms of formulation implementation evaluatiio phases) were replaced by cycle models,
More recently, it has been recognised that the effectiveness of policy depends also on the involvement of a broader range of actors than those formally in charge of policy decisions.
but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors
This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.
This may have been a wise decision in order to ensure the widespread agreement to the strategy, if this is seen as a first step only towards establishing a more strategic and open governance culture. 6. Conclusions The innovation policy foresight
when the decision was taken to launch a participatory foresight and strategy process. To conclude, it is certainly true that the foresight
and politically legitimised, except with reference to the demand for more genuinely democratic decision-making. Drawing on fieldwork studies of a Norwegian municipal vision project conducted in 2006 it is shown how a specific image of young people was constructed
and strategic decisions. 3 In their seminal paper on‘Inclusive foresight'Loveridge and Street (2005) argue that the credibiilit of foresight is dependent on extending participation to social stakeholders, especially those not normally seeking participation themselves.
‘How are these inclusion procedures publically and politically legitimised, other than by the continual demand for more genuine democratic decision-making?'
'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,
and decision-making by emphasising the complexity of organising and organisations. Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;
and Lau (2003,2) refer to‘reflexive social institutions'as central agents charged with the responsibility to make‘reasonable decisions about the future...
and aggression'associated with the strongest driving forces in future decision making. They were assumed to have no capitalist aspirations.
which they constructed an image of this group as authentic stakeholders regardless of their knowledge or possibilities to influence political decision making.
longteer planning and decision-making. 19 If the young were authentic stakeholders, what perspectives and insights were they to contribute to the project?
as steering and decision-shaping and of politics as decision-making (Johnston 2002). Foresight as well as governance is seen often as consisting of networking
3. About the relationship between foresight and decision making see Brown et al. 1999), Ringland (2002), Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000), Böhle (2003), Genus (2006), Georghiou (2001), Johnston (2001), Berkhout and Hertin (2002.
guide choices and influence decisions. As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in
and that the voices of the most vulnerable in society are heard in decision-making. It is also responsive to the present and future needs of society. 20.
Decision making in the public sector. In Scenarios in public policy, ed. G. Ringland, 124 31. Chichester: Johnwiley.
or policy decisions relying primarily upon intuitive sources of knowledge. That need no longer be the case.
and 4) decision process standardization. The first QTIP factor concerns information availability. A defining characteristic of the binformation Economyq is enhanced access to information.
Stagegaat approaches set forth explicit decisions to be sequenced toward particular ends (e g.,, new product development. Furthermore, we see organizations going the next step to require specific analyses and outputs at each stage.
which to base particular technology management decisions comes to know them. S) he develops understanding of their strengths and limitations,
and, thus, how best to use this derived knowledge to make better decisions. In this way technology intelligence gains credibility as a vital decision aid.
The Model T analogy carries over here too (loosely) the availability of this standard vehicle enables an efficient infrastructure to develop around it.
Likewise, the established technology decision framework constitutes the fourth factor needed for QTIP-decision process standardization.
That implies bworking backq from the decision support requirements to the data. It makes less sense for a bdata miningq mindset in
Suppose we have systematized a decision process that calls for answers to particular technology management questions. Imagine a scenario in which our organization is an American company initiating operations in Australia.
Credible information gets put to use in decision-making.!Information that is used gets requested bnext timeq.!
From this digest of the company's open R&d face, we pose the action question for managerial decision.
What the technology focus and organizational focus profiles hold in common is a compilation of empirical information to help answer a particular MOT question. 3. Discussion This paper illustrates how to compose informative decision support from empirical information concerning various
decision-makers (e g.,, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
Mandate explicit technology information products be provided for decision stages in such processes.!Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies theacademy of Finland
and the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation (Tekes) to carry out Finnsight 2015, a joint foresight exercise that would provide inputs to this strategy,
group decision support 1. Introduction As an instrument of strategic policy intelligence (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), foresight must often serve multiple objectives that are shaped by its policy context.
In addition to one-of-a-kind exercises, important elements of foresight activity are ingrained in policy processes at the highest level of decision making:
when the Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system at large.
In this decision, the Government emphasised that the research system is to be developed in its entirety, with the aim of improving the quality and relevance of research and development activities.
Furthermore, this decision obliged the Academy of Finland2 and the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation3 (Tekes) to deepen their collaboration in the context of funding activities and other R&i instruments,
Finally, the Decision stated that the Science and Technology policy Council of Finland (STPC) should develop by the end June 2006 a national strategy for establishing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Research and Innovation.
In effect, the Government's decision ascribed new tasks to the Academy of Finland and Tekes.
when the Government's decision was known to be forthcoming. At this stage, Raimo Väyrynen the President of the Academy of Finland,
and decisions on key matters (e g. approval of project plans, definition of panel titles and appointment Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 990 A. Salo et al. of panel chairmen).
Second, a deliberate decision was taken not to establish panels based on traditional industry clusters (i e. forest industries, construction), partly in view of earlier cluster-oriented studies:
however, the decisions as to which candidates would be invited were taken by the Core group. This made it possible to ensure that several dimensions of balance (including gender, regions, representation of scientific fields, technological areas,
In consequence, the panel felt that it is pertinent develop competencies for the analysis of such developments in view of policy and decision making activities.
instrumental use of foresight refers to the development and deployment of results for specific and foreseen decision-making situations,
and possibilities for improving it (but not necessarily with close links to any particular decision-making situation).
when the Government took decisions towards the implementation of a national strategy in which the establishment of Strategic Centres of Science,
the reports were possibly more amenable for instrumental uses in decision making. Yet there were methodological steps that retained dissensual perspectives as well.
By the time of the second conference, the‘‘impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making''had become the core theme
and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.
The need for more participative and inclusive decision-making is emphasised also by Cagnin et al. As with Ko nno la et al.
they see a shift from technocratic to wider democratic processes of decision-making as societies respond to globalisation
the paper concludes by advocating the need for embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making.
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
objectives and policy functions on the one hand and nature of decision making structure and their relation to the Foresight process on the other. 2. 2. Why more tailoring?
since the decision will belong to the political arena. It can simply be considered that the actors of the programming arena have contributed to the tasks of the strategic orientation arena
and 12th 2009 in the framework of the ANR-OGM COBINA research project. 10 Decision announced by Ilse Aigner, federal ministry for agriculture, on April 14th 2009.
Available from the Science and Technology studies Unit, University of York, UK, 2001.21 E. Grande, The state and interest groups in a framework of multilevel decision-making:
critical decisions in real time. Q David Snowden, director of IBM's Cynefin Centre for Organisational Complexity in Cardiff, Wales, advocates a form of what he calls bimmunizationq against the shocks of a constantly changing business environment.
and imports the knowledge that he or she develops into the decision-making process intuitively. Scanning processes are tools for systematizing the collection of early signals of change
when making technology decisions may be an appropriate strategy. The abstract is valuable because it questions conventional wisdom
Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns), and junior staff must feel comfortable in expressing themselves.!
and to use the results in planning and decision making. Although the Scan process serves most effectively as an early warning-system system,
and by whatever decision process is agreed a list is arrived at. Often the process of list generation is interactive with the later stage of resource allocation.
Some sophisticated techniques exist for decision making, for example the analytical hierarchy approach 11. A review of some of these methods concluded that most are used rarely in practical situations of R&d resource allocation 12.
In the process of generating the list it is likely that the types of information needed to make decisions will also be collected.
This has made use of foresight in the form of internet-based decision support tools. As an example of embedded foresight, Brummer et al. indicate three roles for such an application of foresight:(
and provide support to current decision-making. Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society,
but also to the use of foresight to support the specific foreseen decision-making situation, for example relatedto resource allocationor the formationof strategicpartnershipsor joint actions.
In view of societal challenges, there is a need to provide outcomes to support targeted decision making situations.
and expectations of the participants but can also ensure the relevant outcomes useful for further application in decision-making.
An action plan for the Nordic key actors without a direct link to any decision process.
The positioning of individual projects in the framework clarifies the methodological decisions and the rationales of stakeholder engagement.
and instrumental outcomes) Priorities foresight can be characterised as consensual and instrumental processes that create common understanding on priorities, networks and/or future actions as well as support the specific foreseen decision-making situation.
Among decision-makers this is likely to lead to interests in the results. However policy interests may also enter in the foresight process
The outcomes of DCDC Strategic Trends are target to defence decision-makers but it could also have wider impacts in society
This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making which provides opportunities for creative thinking
Hence, it was planned not to have direct impacts to decision-making. However, the participants from different sectors of the society benefited from the project.
which support the specific foreseen decision-making situation or for the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions.
in order to support the decision-making process and lead to development of actions and therefore also its usefulness and effectiveness for supporting policy-making is more evident.
when decisions are made. Almost all the analysed projects have outcomes that can be characterised as consensual.
and communicating this characteristic to stakeholders may create difficulties in attracting those stakeholders who wish to be closer to decision-making.
The exploration of alternative forms of participation for decision-makers and other participants with serious time constrains can
but mainly to draw conclusions on how foresight can be improved as an instrument contributing to knowledge creation for policy and decision-making in more general.
impacts and implications for policy and decision making, in: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at:
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