. Introduction Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action, especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making.
The whole point of FTA is to better inform our decisions, and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments,
and their use to support decision-making. Posits are such‘knowledge surrogates, 'for Bell and Olick 2. We can have knowledge about the posts themselves.
or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,
often stemming from the fact that much FTA work is conducted under pressure to provide results to inform urgent decisions.
which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
in order to provide the sorts of advice decision-makers require. 5 FTA users and practitioners are in the same situation themselves,
and a set of rapid decisions being made, as the need for concrete plans becomes pressing.
Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;
creation of plans to inform decisions in the present day and near future concerning actions to shape the future.
This can be seen as a reflection of the growing complexity of S&t decisions, which is associated with such factors as the combination of multiple scientific and technological knowledge bases in many 7 Naisbitt 36,
and those which involve controversial decisions about risks and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology,
and who often have an almost innate suspicion of politicians that make decisions affecting them.
Policymakers thus sought more transparency in decision-making, with foresight, technology assessment, and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
Since these decisions and actions involve many actors, there is often need for concerted action, and shared visions of what futures to seek
working to create decisions and action within it that can contribute to the construction of the future.
as decisions are made about how to represent current activities and how far to retain material produced in earlier phases of the programme.)
and in turn used for formulating explicit priorities, recommendations and decisions. In the Nordic H2 energy foresight, the appropriation of the knowledge from the foresight process into various stakeholder organisations was seen as being accomplished through such activities as pilot projects
so that they can seriously incorporate the thinking of the workshop in their own decision-A. Eerola,
the assumptions and decisions that have gone into the posits, than could be gleaned from reading reports.
Our KM decisions are undertaken from a limited evidence base; we do not know how far the quality of FTA EXERCISES is impaired,
and the logic underpinning specific decisions in more detail. There are also opportunities for action (and action research.
Create Knowledge and Make Decisions, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.36 J. Naisbitt, Megatrends, Warner Books, New york, 1982.37 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
However, the discussion about multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making has received very little attention from the FTA COMMUNITY who have taken for granted that FTA ACTIVITIES are participative.
Available online 26 november 2010 A b s T R A c T FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies.
The need for more participative and inclusive decision making is due to themove from the technocratic nature of decision making towards more democratic processes,
regulation and public policy 8. The shift from technocratic decision making towards more democratic processes can be captured in the concept of governance.
economic and juridical decisions in a dialogue process with the political authorities. Governance and regulatory concepts imply a modified description of what regulation is and how it works, where the regulatory limits of state authority and the potential of society to influence
According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by which decisions are implemented
(or not. The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making and in implementing them as well as the formal,
and informal structures that have been set in place to arrive at and implement such decisions. Good governance assures 9 that corruption is minimised
the views of minorities are taken into account and that the most vulnerable in society are heard in decision making,
in ways that are responsive to the present and future needs of society. Sheng 9 claims that there are eight major characteristics to good governance:
and civil society organisations to the public or those who will be affected by decisions taken and consequent actions,
which means that decisions taken and their implementation are done in a manner that follows rules and regulations.
and directly accessible to all who will be affected by such decisions, and their implementation 5. Responsiveness which means that institutions
and coherence all of which aim at a reorganisation of decision making structures with the objective of reasserting social legitimacy.
-Help meet societal expectations of increased transparency and involvement in decision making. In order to achieve a genuine,
or are affected by the policy decisions taken''(p. 3). The newgovernance and stakeholder approach has various implications for the relationships between the society, corporate industrial activities and public governance.
quality of social life has given rise to pressures from a number of activist groups for social participation in decisions
and society Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a critical cross-connecting theme regarding democracy and participation in shaping corporate decisions.
CSR brings wider societal concerns and values, such as human rights, ethics and corruption, into business strategy and decision making.
and make decisions about them through constructive dialogue with regulators, the local community and activists.
when making investment decisions. SRI plays an important part in creating corporate and public awareness about CSR issues
The assumption that CSR can be defined as business decision linked to ethical values 37 presupposes that stakeholders
or at least to understand the strategic decisions of a company so that the eight criteria of good governance are met:
and openness of decision making procedures to stakeholders while acknowledging the relevance of knowledge other than science,
rather than by a genuine desire to involve the public into decision making. Hence, it is important to reflect on how FTA METHODS
may be ready and willing to exert their own right in decision making processes and at the same time contribute to firms,
and public decision making. But what would then be the role of government and industry in developing human capacity and enabling the literacy of citizens at large?
and processes lead to more participation in overall decision making? 7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
so that their needs are taken into account. Therefore it is critical to reflect on how FTA METHODS
Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
quality decision making processes and the ability to exert corporate controls. This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
One of the main challenges for the FTA COMMUNITY is to support such a shift by embedding forward-looking participatory practices into strategic decision making. 8. Conclusions:
FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
towards that of embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making. Being able to respond to the questions posed in Section 7 of this paper is critical to making such a shift.
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, New york, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
Wild cards may also be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
all drugs allowed Human decisions change because of the Internet advisory capacity Slow down in the world population from development Science
Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.
''If the program has built-in channels such that decision-makers feel ownership and are ready to take notice it seems to have a greater impact.
-and decision-making to attend and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
Many decision-makers remain ignorant of or unpractised with these tools, and may well resort to other guides to the future,
There is therefore an urgent need for even greater efforts to inform decision-makers of the potential value of FTA APPROACHES.
and persuading decision-makers of the value of FTA APPROACHES. This signals a need for the major focus of FTA to be moved from the twin goals of methodology refinement
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
and to reduce risks and uncertainties in transport decision-making. In a second paper, Horton argues that policy-making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
it has to be noted that using numerical values to support decision-making may be preferred a procedure but that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets,
to provide knowledge for decision-making. Potential effects of policy interventions should be assessed; risk and uncertainties should be reduced;
Decisions therefore need to be taken. In general, these can be gathered based on information by using a broad range of advanced tools
In general, the decision to undertake a trip is motivated by very different factors drawn from all fields relevant in daily life,
or cost-benefit analyses are often quite clear to decision-makers, it seems that is not always understood in which way discursive methods can contribute to the improvement of planning processes.
So, a broad range of rather different FTA METHODS is used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness and legitimacy of decisions.
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
and risks in decision making is the object of academic study and scientific debate (see for example Renn 2008) for a long time.
Generally speaking, the scholarly literature shows consistently that all decision making takes place under conditions of uncertainty
and that certainty in decision making is idealized only an limiting case. However for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application.
which is rooted often in the knowledge-base of decision making 1. 3. The methods:‘‘‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
and as a web of Table I Knowns and unknowns in decision-making Category Unknown unknowns Known unknowns Knowns Description Most features of the situation neither known nor well-defined (options, their possible consequences, reliability of information,
But these methods aim at improving the epistemic basis of decision making by focussing mainly on the categories of known unknown
also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making. MCA is structured a decision-making tool developed
and used in complex and conflicting situations where multiple criteria are involved (Mendoza et al.,1999). ) It is considered often as an alternative
Scenarios help to reflect on the consequences of decision-making. They can serve as arenas, where certain policy interventions are tested''to get a better understanding of the related causal relations and of the anticipated effects.
a crucial basis for the political decision to realise the project, would have been worsened significantly. A structurally closed method alone, here the CBA, is not able to cope with such a known unknown.
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
a decision was made on what to include or what to exclude. This decision is always based on an explicit or implicit prioritisation,
a step that is based invariably on normative positioning, on preferences, values, norms, and their changes over the course of time.
For transparent decision making procedures it is crucial to make preferences values and normative assumptions visible as far as possible.
Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
Kleindorfer, P. R. 2008),‘Reflections on the decision making under uncertainties'',Faculty and Research Working Paper, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, available at:
-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward
and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
This method fits very well for the use of public decision-makers since it allows comparing and reflecting between different policy alternatives that all are able to produce the determined development goals.
The decision-makers have a huge variety of issues to deal with and one cannot expect the politicians
and master all aspects of the decisions they make. Here, however lies a hidden risk in using numerical values to describe possible future events.
available information might lead to hasty decisions. Some alternatives might be disregarded altogether and the decision-makers might be tempted to focus on a particular scenario.
Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example, energy use of some industrial processes,
Using numerical values to support decision-making is preferred a procedure but it has to be noted that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets,
Using scenarios in decision-making is ideally a continuous process rather than a onetime exercise. External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed
This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,
and decisions taken earlier 6. These emerging irreversibilities reduce the complexity of the situation 7. How do emerging irreversibilities affect the actors operating in the field?
In fact, one of the core objectives of a city plan is to take decisions in the present time in order to correctly guide urban activities in the future for the benefit of its citizens.
When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers. In spite of the above-mentioned advantages, territorial foresight has clear limitations.
Likewise, several articles by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies have drawn attention to the potential of territorial foresight for decision making at the regional level (IPTS
On the one hand, most foresight exercises by social scientists are usually based on general narratives that are intellectually stimulating but rarely of much help to the physical planner for making decisions in the urban realm.
or just perceived as a trivial set of tools that do not provide much added value to the urban decision making processes.
which most citizens participate in public decision-making. In this scenario, Spanish society gives priority to human and social requirements over purely consumption-oriented needs.
Progress is reflected by transparent decision-making, effective public participation, public-private co-operation and better coordination among different levels of administration.
In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.
its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority
the scope of legal research supporting policy decision-making tends to be rather restrictive, looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
and to support the political decision-making process 6 which, only after a series of political iterations, culminates in the enactment of pieces of legislation.
in order to give decision-makers a better, integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011).
and allows one to study the impact of different possible decisions, i e. to explore various future scenarios at different degrees of detail,
i e. to create a greater awareness of the possible implications of human-decision making''(Helbing, 2011).
Finally, Futurict will also build a‘‘Global Participatory Platform''in order to support the decision making of policy makers, business people and citizens,
and assist decision making and political participation processes. In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
as complementary and supportive instruments of discussion and decision. FTA should help Law and not transform itself into Law.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 other hand, decision support and policy making require information on the potential consequences of the introduction of new technologies before they are implemented widely,
or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
and their results are expected to find consideration in practical decisions. It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,
at present and in the future researchers, developers and users are faced with strategic decisions on the continuation of their efforts again and again.
Are there approaches to let it become part of decisions which are taken already at early stages of an R&d project about its objectives,
and are intended to serve as decision aids for strategy building and planning in organisations that depend on
The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions
and new governance structures are evolving, reflecting growing interdependence and complexity and the need for decision-making under uncertainty.
whose results can be fed back into the scientific, technological and also societal decision-making and agenda-setting processes.
Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),
3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson
and increasing turbulence in their external environment in order to explore how decision makeer select and use foresight practices and techniques for handling environmental uncertainty.
and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making through inclusive dialogue. They see a key role for FTA APPROACHES and methods in this.
'4. Probably the most well-known example is the Decision Theatre at Arizona State university, which constitutes a large research infrastructure (www. decisiontheater. org).
Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
Hames, R. 2011a. Grand societal challenges beyond civilization metamorphosis as intentional evolution, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville.
Knight maintained that most business decisions are made in unique contexts that make statistical inference impossible and
In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.
Retrospective narratives make decision-makers believe that future has been predictable before and that they are able to predict the future also now (Bukszar 1999).
As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process, it is believed often that conflict can be reduced by decision processes that emphasise data and facts.
and decision-makers have to learn to maintain an agnostic attitude and simultaneously apprehend alternative scenarios.
Weak signals as a flexible framing space for enhanced management and decision-making. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 307 20.
A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integrated Assessment 4, no. 1: 5 17.
Management Decision 43, no. 1: 86 101. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014
Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A: Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences.
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
and relevance of foresight. 2. Foresight exercises Various forms of foresight have been developed to support strategic decision-making amongst firms
The basic idea is that decision-making in firms and policy-settings will benefit from explorations of the future (Gordon,
This is the domain of strategic decision-making. Business studies have developed a set of techniques to assess the future for strategic decisionmakkin (Kappel 2001;
and how this affects the decisions of engineers, businesses and governments. It investigates how researchers,
since decisions and activities are framed by intentions and ideas about a future situation. People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
but the‘boat'only exists due to the collective decision not to miss it. Such response may be amplified by foresight reports,
Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,
matching environmental uncertainty Riccardo Vecchiato*Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy This paper explores how strategic decision-makers select
Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
and processes that assist decision-makers in the task of charting the company's future course of action (Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010;
In this context, some scepticism arose in the academic community regarding the reliability of foresight efforts and their soundness and appropriateness for supporting strategic decision-making (Bradley Mackay and Costanzo 2009;
and strategic decision-making, we performed a multiple-case study of corporate organisations. In this paper, we focus on BASF in the chemical industry, Daimler in the automotive industry, Philips in the consumer electronics industry,
and shed light on their implications for foresight and strategic decision-making. Environmental uncertainty and strategic foresight Conceptualisation of environmental uncertainty Early conceptualisations of uncertainty go back to pioneering management scholars such as Knight (1921) and March and Simon (1958),
Milliken (1987) distinguishes between three types of uncertainty that act together to determine the overall uncertainty faced by strategic decision-makers.
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
(and divestment) decisions for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 789 expanding
A notable corporate-level example has been the decision to withdrawfrom the pharmaceutical industrry Notwithstanding the positive outlook of both demography and demand growth,
Foresight and decision-making The main goal of strategic foresight at Philips is to drive the renewal of the organisation by figuring out how to exploit the new market opportunities enabled by emerging technologies or in response to changing customer needs.
our findings offer the broad outline of a conceptual framework regarding how decision-makers match strategic foresight with environmental uncertainty.
Managers at BASF and Daimler could be quite confident about the key decisions they would have to make in the next 20 years or even more
In this context, the key decisions themselves to be tackled by the organisation for future growth were not clear.
and decision-makers have gained a sound grasp of the main components of their industry, they might start using traditional foresight techniqque (e g. roadmaps in the case of Philips)
our findings suggest that decision-makers facing discontinuous drivers of change and boundary uncertainty are more likely to focus their predictive efforts on environmental scanning
The definition of the boundaries of the business serves exactly to fix the key decisions for future growth,
Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
which previous scholars have suggested as the main contribution of foresight to strategic decision-making (van der Hejden et al. 2002;
The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
and also suppliers in the decision-making process and the operational procedures needed to carry out the necessary value activities to achieve the ultimate goal of satisfying the end-customer.
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
and works as a source of trust as well as of transparency and legitimacy of options and decisions, clarifying the pros
to change in attitudes and behaviours and to joint-up decisions for change in order to steer solutions to emerging challenges through an inclusive approach as well as further experimentation
Foresight can also expose a range of equally likely paths into the future that may permit more insightful decisions to be made by a business.
and inform aspects of these decisions is considerable, but it does not remove the element of judgement
and risk that accompanies any form of decision-making. Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
of which bring an element of legitimacy and transparency to the overall decision-making process. Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;
comply with speed requirements-Individual learning to comply with functional roles-Information improve decisions-Team learning promoted to improve decision-making
and allow data-sharing stimulus to support decisions-Information based; IT used to build applications centred on processes rather than on functions,
and support decision-making effectively by using models, such as sympoiesis, that emphasise the creative aspect of living systems which,
and interactions to take place across business networks to support effective decision-making: this is paramount. Consequently, firms will be enabled to anticipate
The implications for policy and decision-making are manifold. Regardless of seeing the world based on three interdependent pillars businesses,
and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue, which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008).
Management Decision 41, no. 8: 782 90. von Zedtwitz, M. 2002. Organizational learning through post-project reviews in R&d.
and reviewing past and present decisions and performance to decide whether or not to be in business (changes needed) according to competitive
so it can establish future capability of analysis and decision making processes. Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities.
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