Research investment decisions made 10 and 15 years ago are having a direct impact on national security programs today.
In an effort to improve the inputs to the request for proposal and decision-making process, and given the availability of relevant data,
Of course, in a final analysis, barriers to entry would be weighted against specific competencies and the people with those competencies in making decisions about
1) the future development options in the context of anticipated and unknown challenges,(2) the past decisions that affect the organisation either explicitly or implicitly,
and (3) the present, in which all the actions and decisions are put into action. It is critical to understand that the unrealised options in the past,
as well as the potential ones in the future, also affect the present decisions. The idea of an anticipatory culture builds on this temporal tension (Figure 1). Therefore,
with strategic watersheds decision moments when the organisation has to visit its fundamentals and ponder whether it is going to continue with business as usual, try modest renovations,
The causality between decisions made and paths realised is not always linear: in other words, it is not always certain that the decisions made
and the paths realised correspond. In fact, it could be suggested that most of the decisions are realised only partially.
Therefore, it is crucial to conceptualise an organisation not as a closed node in the present,
decisions made in the past, and unrealised past options. Organisations navigate, as argued above, in the strategic landscape that increasingly requires specific systemic capacities.
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
The aim is to endorse business decisions on the basis of roadmapping. The fourth scope is systemic II
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
and to come up with related business decisions. The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 5. In the strategy space,
A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71, no. 1 2: 81 100.
Clear understanding of both sets of factors offers a valuable decision aid to inform successful NEST management.
The variability among NEST situations and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered very flexibly.
Impact on policy and decision making. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 457 61. Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
Responding to grand challenges may require some longer-term investment decisions and commitments. There is a persuasive view that that longer-term thinking
They do not constitute decisions made by Forfa's nor any other organisation involved in the research prioritisation exercise.
and influence on policy decision making. Design/methodology/approach The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal.
Findings The paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&t&i priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making.
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making. Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.
B Direct impact (medium) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at Ministry level (corresponding decisions could concern the forming of a research agenda, budget allocation, etc..
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
and to supplement the results received from the previous project. 4. The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making As can be seen above,
promising innovation projects and other information required for policy decision-making. These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework.
The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
because the results were used for decision-making at the level of the Ministry. At the same time the FS2 project showed that for full use of the priorities identified for the natural resources sector,
Table IV The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making Influence on policy-making Evaluation of influence on policy-making FS1 The foresight data were used as an information source for many political purposes:
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
which however could not be used directly in decision-making. A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.
The results of this project were strongly related to policy decision-making, and some strategic documents (Geologic Strategy, Water Strategy) were prepared on the basis of the output of the study.
So, the analysis showed the synergy of all three projects help to achieve results that had a strong influence on policy decision-making.
Therefore for better connection to policy decision-making one might conclude that a common widespread national Delphi survey for the identification S&t priorities (which was our FS1) should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources
and use it to make decisions. The context and importance of competitive intelligence is based partly on the resource-based theory,
i e. to guide R&d decisions. In looking at the timeframes associated with CTI, they are of a shorter duration to foresight
Martino, J. P. 1983), Technological forecasting for Decision making, 2nd ed.,North Holland, Amsterdam. Nelson, R. 1997), Why Do Firms Differ
and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis.
and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. The first part of this introductory paper considers the potential roles of fta in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and fundamental transformations,
when analysing the potential of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to assist societies, decision-makers and businesses to tackle fundamental, disruptive transformations, in general,
and well-reasoned decisions on its main features/elements: its geographical scope, time horizon, themes, methods, participants, budget,
Before making these design‘technical'decisions, four issues seem to be particularly relevant when considering what FTA APPROACHES
The subjectivity and associated ignorance due to the choices and decisions made will increase as the FTA begins to deal with more complex and uncertain issues
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 3. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches FTA is an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools (technology foresight,
The main objective of FTA projects is to assist decision-makers with relevant analyses, observations and new ideas to be prepared better for the future (assuming that it can be predicted)
and that is a major benefit for decision-makers, be they directors of research institutes, deans and rectors of universities, business people, or policy-makers.
The challenge for FTA lies in the fact that the unstructured nature of grand challenges may not fit with the existing thematic structures of decision-making.
To what extent the current decision-makers and other major‘gatekeepers'would be open to launch and finance such exercises,
and accept recommendations possibly leading to fundamental changes e g. in terms of a radical redistribution of decision-making power?
and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision-making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches,
They analyse whether models can be used at all in decision-making under uncertainty. In this context they claim that Exploratory Modelling
and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.
Policy-and other decision-makers should therefore devise and apply 383 C. Cagnin et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 more experimental approaches to creating new solutions
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
in order to reduce its distorting effects on the interpretation of evidence and its decision-making powers. There are two weaknesses in this claim.
Trust from policy-makers in outcomes from an FTA exercise may be undermined by differences between the expectations of decision-makers who should ultimately use the outcomes of FTA,
Similarly, decision-makers can claim that the wrong people were involved in a Delphi survey, or they simply distrust the foresight process,
On the other hand, policy-makers and stakeholders will contribute to shaping the future through their decisions and their actions.
The initial identification of issues is one of the stages where the involvement of stakeholders is essential as it allows collecting the views of those who will play an active role in the decision-making process supported by FTA.
During this stage, it is recommended also to include the wider range of stakeholders that will be affected by the consequences of these decisions.
if at all possible, the benefits derived from the foresight process itself (such as for instance network building and improved collaboration) and the improvement of the decision-making process,
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 2008.28 S w. Cunningham, T. E. van der Lei, Decision-making for new technology:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 32 D. Rossetti di Valdalbero, The Power of Science economic research and European decision-making:
foresight and decision-making, in: Deliverable 3. 1 of EFONET Energy Foresight Network, 2009, Available at:
and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the current stage of its technology life cycle (TLC).
in order to estimate future development trends to make informed decisions on whether to invest in it or not.
and to make business decisions. Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC indicator for the S-curve analysis 10,12, 13.
Technology observers can make their R&d investment decision by using the proposed approach. The result shows that NBS is in a growth stage.
If TF is to aid in decision making robustness is vital. How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques?
Technol. 43 (1)( 2008) 157 162.4 J. P. Martino, Technological forecasting for Decision making, 3rd Edition Mcgraw-hill, New york, NY, 1993.5 A t. Roper, S w
Market Manage. 21 (1)( 1992) 23 31.36 E. Hajime, The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy:
or policies, that automatically adapt to changing conditions is called adaptive decision-making, respectively adaptive policy-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty.
This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques,
Model-based decision support Deep uncertainty Adaptive policy-making Exploratory Modeling and Analysis 1. Introduction Conceptual, formal, and computational models are used commonly to support decision-making
and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
by an individual or group of actors, and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.
decision-making is more general than, and to some extent includes, policy-making. Although the approach proposed in this paper applies equally well to long-term decision-making as to policy-making,
we will, from here on, consistently refer to‘policy-making'and‘policies, 'for our work mainly focuses on policy-making
or the parties to a decision cannot agree on, (1) the appropriate conceptual models which describe the relationships among the key driving forces that shape the long-term future,(
The approach starts from a conceptualization of the decision problem and the identification of the key uncertainties.
and more generally, decision-making under deep uncertainty. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces an adaptive policy-making framework and our Adaptive Robust Design approach.
Given ignorance about the possible side effects of technologies under development, he argues that one should strive for correctability of decisions, extensive monitoring of effects, and flexibility.
In a recent special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change on adaptivity in decision-making, the guest editors conclude that Adaptive policy-making is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late.
The approach for developing adaptive policies as presented here shares characteristics with‘Robust Decision making (RDM)' 8
and to human and organizational decision-making 45. Here we focus on the competition between technologies. 3. 1. Introduction to the energy transition case
and expected values are used in planning decisions. Also, since the installation of new capacity mostly happens in large chunks,
There is a growing awareness about the need for handling uncertainty explicitly in decision-making. The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
there is also a certain degree of skepticism about the extent towhichmodels can be used for decision-making under uncertainty.
The presented case illustrates howmodels can be used to support decision-making, despite the presence of awide variety of quite distinct uncertainties and a multiplicity of plausible futures.
in order to assess the implications of these uncertainties for decision-making. The presented approach can easily be expanded ormodified For example, we used PRIMFOR the identification of both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
Other rule induction methods, such as decision tree induction, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) 60, could be applied equally well to this task.
a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support, Integr. Assess. 4 (2003) 5 17.5 G. Yucel,
C. Macharis, P. L. Kunsch, A. Chevalier, M. Schwaniger, Combining multicriteria decision aid and system dynamics for the control of socioeconomic processes.
In his Phd research, he focuses on long term decision-making under deep uncertainty using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method.
He currently works as a postdoc on the treatment of uncertainties in model-based decision support for fresh water supply in The netherlands at Delft University of Technology.
It has been developed mainly for model-based decision support. This paper investigates the extent to which EMA is a promising approach for future oriented technology analysis (FTA).
whether models can be used at all in decision-making under uncertainty. In their agenda setting paper on FTA Porter et al. 1 note that there are many irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short termand predictions need not be assumed to constitute necessary precursors to effective action.
EMA aims at offering decision support even in the face of many irreducible uncertainties, by systematically exploring the consequences of a plethora of uncertainties ranging fromparametric uncertainties (e g. parameters ranges), over structural uncertainties (e g. different
Particular attention is given to the potential of EMA in offering decision support for shaping systemic and structural transformation.
and the political sciences, are involved in providing model-based decision support. In these various fields, people are grappling with the treatment of deep and irreducible uncertainty
whose implications for potential decisions may be quite diverse. A single model run drawn from this set provides a computational experiment that reveals how the world would behave
In making policy or planning decisions about complex and uncertain problems, EMA can provide new knowledge,
the challenges associated with decision-making under deep uncertainty can largely be overcome. Instead of trying to predict,
In this way, decision-making can proceed despite the presence of deep uncertainty, for decisions can be designed to be robust across the explored range of possible futures.
By supporting the systematic exploration of the complete space of combinations of uncertainties, EMA addresses one of the often mentioned shortcomings of foresight,
and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers, and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
This finding is troublesome to decision-making, for it implies that crises may be difficult to predict based on the monitoring of various exogenous developments.
for even roughly 6000 behaviors in case of 50,000 runs are still unwieldy for supporting decision-making.
In this section, a stylized version of this decision-making problem is explored. The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
and socioeconomic uncertainty about fuel prices, investment decisions of suppliers, and load curves. Various alternative developments for these uncertainties are specified.
The short-term operation involves unit commitment decisions, and price bidding in the electricity market, which are directly related to load dispatching to take place in the market.
The long-term decisions are related to capacity investment and decommissioning, which decisions are expected mainly based on lifetime of the technology used in a generation unit.
A unit at the end of it is lifetime and/or an old unit making loss Table 5 Performance bounds of the static and the adaptive plan.
Generation companies'expansion decisions are driven mainly by profit expectations, and are dependent on forecasts about fuel prices, demand,
and implications for FTA This paper started from the observation that model-based decision support under conditions of deep uncertainty is problematic.
and decision-making by helping in anticipating and shaping future developments. The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.
That is, EMA can help organizations in preparing for and guiding their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to challenges and transformations.
Theoretically, the potential of EMA to FTA is its ability to cope with a multiplicity of deep and irreducible uncertainties in the analysis of decision-making problems
Uncertainty is recognized increasingly as being a major problem for the use of models in decision-making. The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
and models are being used to support decision-making. Where traditionally, often the uncertainties in the inputs to models are reduced as much as possible,
while focusing on the consequences decision-makers care about most: the model outcomes. EMA can for example be used to iteratively reduce the expected bandwidth of model outcomes as in the second case presented.
That is, the systematic exploration of a wide variety of uncertainties produces large datasets that need to be analyzed further using machine learning or data mining techniques in order to extract decision relevant information from it.
Science, Decision making, and the Future of Nature, Island Press, WASHINGTON DC, 2000.3 G. Smith, Newton's philosophiae naturalis principia mathematica, in:
Decisions under Severe Uncertainty, 2nd ed. Wiley, New york, 2006.10 E. A. Erikson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
His research focuses on the treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support. He has worked on cases in various domains including air transport, port planning, fresh water supply in The netherlands, world water scarcity issues,
and decision-making and by facilitating dialogues between various stakeholders 4. The value of the scenario exercise depends on the ways in
However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of a broader social process 5. Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing
-be helpful in engaging decision-makers in specific issues, legitimating a chosen course of action, and supporting fruitful debates among stakeholders.
and decision-makers uncomfortable 7. How do we know whether we have credible and salient scenarios?
and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?(ii) How can developing
and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved? The three questions represent a specific perspective linking action and decision-makingwith issues of (i) emergence,
i e. window of opportunity;(ii) legitimacy, i e. truth claims; and (iii) empowering, i e. stakeholder values 29.
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Developing and using scenarios are professional practices to support significant decisions, and therefore it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology).
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
Still, it is less obvious how these scenarios can be used for bridging today's decisions with the future images.
and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios. The legitimizing aspect of this is the creation of a common understanding of challenges
being a professional practice to support significant decisions, developing and using scenarios need to be more assured of its claims to knowledge 61.
and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?;(ii) How can developing
and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved?.By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice,
especially by decision-makers Conventional Convention Agree on common accepted probabilities of change (rejecting extreme ideas) Strong on acceptance and alignment,
What is based good scenario decision-making? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 70 (2003) 797 817.2 S. C. H. Greeuw, M. B. A. van Asselt, J. Grosskurth, C a m. H. Storms, N
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios: a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol.
New Vistas for Qualitative Research Towards a Reflexive Methodology, Sage, London, 2000.29 P. De Smedt, Interactions between foresight and decision-making, in:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (2006) 723 739.51 E. Wollenberg, D. Edmunds, L. Buck, Using scenarios to make decisions about the future:
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making Seville 16 17,october 2008, 2008.62 K. Borch, F. Mérida, Dialogue in foresight:
monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making, Futures 38 (2006) 908 924.73 C. Prell, K. Hubacek, M. S. Reed, C. Quinn, N. Jin, J
sense-making and decision-making in late modernity, Futures 38 (2006) 350 366.77 P. De Smedt, Can Negotiating the Future Influence Policy and Social change?
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
In contrast to many other developed economies where technology foresight is used to support strategic decision-making, national-level technology foresight studies are seen not as a prominent activity in the science
although the role of these processes differs significantly with regard to decision making. The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
Future oriented activities that are linked not directly with decision making in policy such as public engagement activities organized by researchers in the US
Policy Res. 28 (2011) 197 217.24 M. Powell, D. L. Kleinman, Building citizen capacities for participation in nanotechnology decision-making:
which involve government officials in making decisions about what companies should do. The result of this has been a portfolio
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In:
Both papers focus on enhancing the impact of fta on decision-making and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making. With this challenge in mind
including the specific subset that consists of conscious human efforts to use the imaginary future for making decisions.
future-intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions'.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making
Expertise is used often to support top-down decisions, provide advice and make recommendations. Expert Panels and to some extent Delphi surveys are examples of foresight methods that have a high content of expertise.
Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.
One of the conclusions of the study is that the basis for political decisions often bears the imprint of negotiation rather than systematic analyses of the problems:
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.
and improve the decision-making base for investments in technology development in Denmark. The project can be done in connection with public investments in technological service and in connection with larger interdisciplinary research groups, for example'.
political negotiations are the main basis for political decisions in Denmark 27. In the Danish context
a good decision is a decision on which everybody (or at least the key stakeholders) agrees.
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