, agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a‘supply-driven'point of view, by
With respect to the policy cycle, we draw a distinction between the phases of agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making,
Apparently, when the time to make a decision comes closer, other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well.
They are used not to make decisions about different strategic options. Overall futures research appears to play a role in the early phases of the strategic policy processes, agenda setting and (in part) policy preparation.
Generally speaking, it is difficult to assess the impact of a foresight exercise by making a direct connection with a specific strategic decision.
especially when it comes to connecting national foresight studies to decision-making. 3. 5 . Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes?
and skills in the organisation An important barrier with respect to the decision to use foresight methods at all,
This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,
Decision-making practices have to be deconstructed in order to‘prepare the field'.'According to Da Costa et al. it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building
Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van
This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures. Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
for instance, regarding the decision-making power of stakeholders due to the bottom-up aspects of the process. It is important
regional, and national systems that it is also important for the people making decisions to be involved in the process and feel ownership of its results.
and the format by which decision-makers are approached and engaged in the exercise. The same is true
This means that there is a need to combine open participation with closed decision making processes. Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
thus flexibly accommodate diverse stakeholder interests. 6 Open and collective stages are those based on processes of collective information gathering, sense making, decision making, dissemination or implementation of results.
clarifying decisions already taken and, most importantly, showing how elements would fit together within a bigger picture
Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, 2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
These would require long-lasting decision processes within the public, the political decision structures, and the public administration.
and provide knowledge on the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making: It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate,
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
improved acceptance and social embedding of technology, broadly supported decision-making on innovation'.'At a more tangible level, it has been argued that active involvement of users helps to create a good fit between the needs, expectations,
this knowledge is crucial in view of strategic planning and decision making within innovation research. Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge,
However, the adoption decision is being postponed because of the associated costs and because of the assumed lack of skills to use the technology.
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
organisational learning, critical analysis of strategic processes, alignment between strategy and its implementation in the value chain, participation in decision making,
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
if needed, to enable one to return to previous steps to refine prior decisions. Therefore, the above combination enhances the potential capability of a firm
and was critical to support the decision making process. 3. 1. An example from the Brazilian State of Parana 3. 1. 1. Rationale The Government of the State of Parana'was selected
since these enabled the State representatives to understand the citizens'perceptions regarding political decisions. 3. 1. 3. Positive results To break the strategy defined by the State into operational actions a number of meetings
the mutual learning process between State and citizens'representatives enabled the development of shared decisions, which resulted in the design of more robust and consistent policies that were aligned with local needs.
community satisfaction and participation in decision making. The former increased from 46%into 72, %and the later from 30%to 60%in relation to implementation of public policies. 3. 1. 4. Negative results The main problem occurred in the translation of
and citizens'representatives was converted not directly into input for policy design due to the fact that such decisions required the acceptance of governmental bodies.
and interpret alternative options to support decision making. Also, in combining robust measures with learning and knowledge while monitoring the system and enabling it to become operational.
51 to support decision making. All this is critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis 45. Also, to link learning
this process is critical to increase legitimacy, ownership and transparency of decisions. Hence embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
These include the coordination and mobilisation of required resources across the value chain. Hence, it supports the system to undertake systemic transitions
and its partners in the value chain considering alternative futures and building upon increased participation in decision making processes for applications such as:
owne rship and t ran spa ren cy of decisions. FTA PROCESSES le ad t o mu tua l experimen tatio n and le arnin g. Th is increa ses commun icatio n
Ultimately, this process shall lead to increased legitimacy, ownership and transparency of decisions across the value chain.
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
Management Decision 44 (2006) 1441 1460.2 M. Beer, R. A. Eisenstat, The silent killers of strategy implementation and learning, MIT Sloan Management Review
Annual British Academy of Management Conference, 2008.6 F. Okumus, A framework to implement strategies in organizations, Management Decision 41 (2003) 871 882.7 D c. Hambrick, A a
combining external and internal scenarios to create strategic foresight, Management Decision 43 (2005) 360 381.69 M. J. Epstein,
dynamic capabilities for managing strategic fit, Management Decision 45 (2007) 518 538.71 G. Walker, R. Macdonald, Designing and implementing an HR scorecard, Human Resource
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns,
in order to suit better the needs of decision-makers and their changing environment, and that there is an urgeen need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).
Therefore, the aim of this special section is to refine FTA METHODOLOGIES in order to increase their impact in policy-making.
identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making. It then formulaate a set of general recommendations with the intentiio of improving the policy impact of fta.
and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
and decision-making requires a clear definition of what this impact can be. At first sight, the degree of action-orientation of any FTA is likely to determine the degree of its impact on policy and decision-making.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
Decker and Ladikas, 2004) Valuing/decision-aiding/economic analyses Cost-benefit analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
and decision-making With a view to improving the impact of fta on policy-making and thus on the extent to
Translate and transfer FTA outputs into policy and decision outcomes. What has been accepted by many FTA practitioners as‘post-foresight,
seeking out alternattiv sources of information and challenging impliici assumptions about the future that underlie today's decisions (UK HSC).
to support strateggi considerations, decisions and actions. In generral this means that the future horizon is divided up into a set of categories that serve as coordinaate (in parallel with the spatial coordinates used by radar
and of the possible interaction of all scanned issues and their relevance for strategic decision-making. A repetitive character:
but fits well with the observation that there is an increasing need for more holistic approaches to informing strateegi decision-making (e g. environmental scanning,
-and decision-makers (by supplying systematically gathered and analyyse data on opportunities, challenges and optioons to provide the basis for resilient
Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,
and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting. COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight
who might wish to use it to inform their strategic decision-making processes. The network should not only deliver a joint scan base to serve national and EC policy and research,
to clarify the picture of the most relevant relationnship in a shared process (with the involvement of decision-makers) on a much earlier moment than usual
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Schwarz, J O 2006.
or guide policy decisions. Thus, program impact via policy appears to be the most important macro-objective for foresight.
not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
Given the range of defined goals and measures of success, one of the objectives of the research was to look at how the practitioners of foresight defined primary program success. After a comprehensive reviie of foresight evaluation
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
and bridge building to move forward New decision-making structures, processes: i e. demonstrating new ways of governance
i e. more comprehensive policy content, more evaluation of policy through debate and higher perception of democratic legitimacy Decisions taken:
What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures? What is the foresight funding model?
or guide policy decisions. So we concluded that achieving program impact via policy appears to be the most important macroobjeectiv for foresight:
A key requirement is to develop foresight capacity amongst senior decision-makers so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government.
advanced technollog firms or private sector advisors connected in some way to the national policy agenda and/or senior decision-makers.
and websites devoted to key stakeholders to an approach of getting in the elevator with key decision-makers to give them 60 second elevaato speeches.
medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career.
Future decisions regarding interventions should use all available information about the disease and possiibl interventions, together with current data from sensors and assays, health clinics, hospitals,
no need to refrigerate Long shelf life Rapid test Gives result rapidly Easy to use in the field Small sample consumption Reliability Individual Information for decision at national level Sharing intellectual property and experience
has proposed a decision model to identify and evaluate an optimum mix of interventions and measures for a specific disease, such as improvements in health infrastructure,
so that decision-makers in each member economy of the APEC could invest in their R&d programs
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed,
this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.
At this stage in particular, other factors were considered to be of greater importance to the decision to be taken by the project's industrial partneers These factors included some of the following:
A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
which are linked to the need to achieve coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate change to be embedded centrally in policy-and decision-making,
and pro-active policy action which can assist policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
which aimed to support decision-makers in their activities, providing for increased confidence and credibility throughout the process.
decision-making; strategic intelligence; communication; mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,
as they allow for foreseeing breakthroughs, technology leaps, trends and discontinuities, new perspectives and opportunity maps present themselves to a corporation through identifying its challenges
and decision-making by developing a range of possible ways in which the future could unfold.
stakeholders'decision-making culture and management styles. These are aspects in relation to which a good communication approach may help make the difference between good and bad final results.
This paper discusses this decision-making environment and a relevant Brazilian Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 245 257 doi:
The process of sharing experiences, collective learning and understanding, creation of shared commitmeen to the main decisions to be made
From this paper's point of view, the target is always the best combination between stakeholders and decision-maker involvement and intangible generation
they are willing to participate in decisions which will affect their lives and also claim their rights.
Thus, not only discussions about the need for social engageemen in the decision-making process emerge, but also the concepts of governance, macro-coordination and develoopmen of vertical communication channels in the governnmen area return to the forefront.
The participation of different stakeholders in the process of identifying possible futures creates a more democratic decision-making and incorporates different visions into the foresight process, different points of view, contributing to the success of the entire exercise and to the quality of the final results.
decision-makers mainly those from the government tend to consider themselves confident enough to start making decisions.
and knowledge necessary to support the decision-making process, which needs further knowledge generation and interpretation of trends, perspectives and future possibilities.
A better reasoning process to support decision-making and strategy formulation. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 247.
156) The idea is thought a-oriented process aiming to make decisions or share perceptions, free from prejudice, cultural influence,
On account of its being strategically positiione very close to decision-making at the highest level, it displays a high capacity to mobilize experts, within and outside Brazil.
In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
which must be considered in the formulation of policies, planning and decision-making. Martin, cited by Cuhls
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.
The basis for a good decision-making process is laid out in this phase, providing for clarity and making it as comprehensive as possible.
which the main recommendations are fine-tuned with decision-makers in all their aspects, an implementation strategy is designed first,
resultiin from discussion and commitment among key stakeholdders expanding the perception of strategic options among the decision-makers.
because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
in order to support decision-making and the drawing up of policies and strategic plans. The focus provided by the differential use of the timeline in prospective studies arises from the fact that these elements are likely to occur in the medium-and long-term,
and had attempted to make it possible for voices to be heard at all levels of decision-making..The quality of the contributions, at all levels, by far surpassed initial expectations..
taking into consideration the three types of decision-makers normally involved in these activities: governmment private sector, and academia.
when precompetitive technological programs reach government decision-making at high levels. Academia: representatives from universities and research institutions tend to impose barriers to accepptin strategic foresight activities.
Government representatives frequently start making decisions before interpreting the material which was obtained in the first phase of the exercise (informatiio and data gathering),
which could result in a better decision-making process. Note 1. CGEE's website Delphi and survey tool allows for gathering experts'opinion using questionnaires tailored to the investigation of both broad and narrow topic domains.
However, so far, little academic attention has been paid to how decisions are taken and priorities set in Chinese research policy.
Thirdly, the process of setting research priorities is characterized by a combination of central goal articulation top-down decision-making and decentralization
however, to how decisions are taken and priorities set in Chinese S&t policy (see, however, the primarily quantitative policy analysis in Liu et al.
the system for allocating funding is suscepttibl to various forms of rent-seeking and even corruptiio in lieu of transparent decision-making mechanisms.
Today's mechanism for priority-setting in these countries is therefore a hybrid, sometimes drawing upon scientific expertise not only in low-level decision-making but also in the framing of societal challenges underlying science policy priorities (Pielke 2007),
A decision on accelerating the progress of S&t was launched in 1995, proposing a national strategy entitled‘strategy of revitalizing the nation through science and education'(kejiao xingguo).
The decision on‘acceleration of progress in S&t'marked a further step towards orienting S&t towards China's social and economic needs
2. 2 Governance of the S&t system An important element characterizing the governance of China's S&t system throughout the phases identified before is the strong involvement of China's top leaders in S&t decision-making.
The role of experts, public consultation and debate Once the decision is taken that something should be done,
and 2005 decisions and plans to strengthen the S&t infrastructure, linking investments in S&t to broader societal goals
-and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations which are required either as a solution to
Fig. 2 illustrates the inter-relatedness of these FTA roles with the innovation system functions outlined earlier in the paper (see Table 1). The inter-relations are summarised in the sub-sections that follow. 5. 1 Informing decision-making
which decisions are made, thereby resulting in better informed public policies or organisational strategies Provide anticipatory strategic intelligence to innovation system actors,
when products and services based on new technologies are rejected Creating new capabilities Improve decisions by meeting societal expectations
and helping these to steer solutions to emerging challenges through joined-up decisions, thereby enabling the system to undertake systemic transitions and new configurations Figure 1. Some common uses of FTA.
or novel combinations of existing knowledge that can inform formal decision-making and priority setting processes. This can be thought of as the information role of FTA.
and allow decisions to be shaped within wider settings through new inclusive and participatory governance approaches. With regards to its capacity-building role FTA can contribute to the articulation of strategic visions that can guide search and selection processes,
Ultimately, decisions are still somewhat top-down. With very few exceptions9 the design of or decisions around such programmes neither foster the creation of spaces for experimentation and learning,
nor allow for new knowledge to be developed or diffused as usually, very few actors (usually termed experts) take part in the dialogue or creative process.
which decision-makers could then use to underpin their choices, by defining strategic research agendas, and by providing recommendations on the availabbl alternatives.
In the latter case decision-makers should work together with specialists, potential users and concerrne representatives of civil society.
strategic politiica decisions, assisted also by the Voluntary Guidelines, the next waves of JPIS have the potential to fully exploit the different roles of fta.
not only for the European Institute of technology's decision on the new KICS to be launched, but also on the design of its first Strategic Innovation Agenda. 10.
The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
in order to understtan how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions.
Van Rij 2010) together with the downscaling of national exercises and the embedding of FTA functions in organisations and their respective decision-making structures and processes.
i e. configurations of different elements required to deliver forward-looking intelligence in support of decision-making. FTA systems cover three levels of elements and the interdependencies between them
Driven by the need to explore certain technological, economic or societal developments of major concern to decision-makers,
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
However, in principle institutionalised FTA has the advantage of being embedded firmly further in policy and decision-making:
it can draw on a close and trustworthy relationship with decision-makers and gives access to insider knowledge of the embedding organisation that allows them to bring their FTA insights fully to bear
whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
there is a risk of cooptation of incumbent positions rather than exploring novel alternatives for decision-making.
in order to help FTA move closer to decision-making. As a consequence, the absorptive capacity in decision-making bodies needs to be enhanced,
calling for a change in organisational culture. Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
and exploitation of FTA networks to provide agile and strategic support for decision-making. 3. 2 Reflecting on the way forward with FTA systems The above review of recent research work indicates a consideerabl diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems with coexisting diverse
because they underlie key scoping decisions on scanning emerging issues and thus shape both implicit and explicit expectations that influence scanners and their behaviour.
and the level of coordination needed to achieve coherent decisions adds to this. Institutionalised FTA capacities are required to support this type of coordination.
As a consequence, there is a growing need to embed this anticipatory capacity in policy and decision-making quickly,
and the accumulation of FTA knowledge needed to translate advice into political and administrative decision-making.
FTA in support of organisations'and institutioons embedding in decision-making is needed in the light of a fast-changing turbulent environment.
Exploring the balance between these three forms of FTA ACTIVITIES in empirical terms helps to improve our understanndin of how effectively different combinations of activities work in their respective decision-making context and governance modes.
an intelligent combinaatio of FTA models needs to be put at the disposal of decision-makers,
Nehme, C. C.,de Miranda Santos, M.,Fellows Filho, L. and Massari Coelho, G. 2012)‘ Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy
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