Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation, with new employment patterns and with the need to further upgrade research and innovation performance.
and analyses to underpin the development of an integrated, future-oriented urban research and innovation policy.
thus fostering the socioeconomic development of thevienna metropolitan area by giving those impulses a regional government can specifically provide.
4) Urban development for research. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
In this final phase, the role of the Municipal Department for EU Strategy and Economic development (MA 27) that was in charge of coordinating the entire foresight
In addition, the development of a number of new avenues of research and innovation is being promoted.
4) Vienna as a hothouse for research and innovation facilitating new developments: Further improvement of working conditions for scientists and creative individuals is called for by providing local networks as breeding grounds for invention and creativity.
His main research interests are related to regional development research performance and systemic innovation policy instruments. Barbara Grunewald has been Research Associate at Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in the Department of Foresight & Policy development since 2005.
To underline the importance of participation in the vision-building project, the project leadership drew upon a specific image of young people as stakeholders in municipal development.
for example in the context of regional, national and transnational development programmes. Visioning as an activity,
such as in urban and municipal development. Theoretical background This paper is inspired by three research areas addressing foresight as a sociopolitical phenomenon around the millennial turn.
however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;
as well as interviews with schoolteachers, politicians, municipal employees in the planning and social development department, visioning workshop participants and foresight practitioners.
The resulting visions were planned to be revised part of the municipal long-term plan regarding social development of the community (2006 2020.
and desirable future outcomes of municipal development without defining these further. This pointed towards a relative flexibility of what was regarded as possible and desirable development.
Yet these three areas were situated already around one central dotted line which led straight to the desired future vision,
which the community council desires for the development of society. In order to obtain operative power the visions
Defining young people as embodying the future made them important stakeholders in the further development of an already wealthy community.
but I am of the opinion that development in a municipality is suited not to especially deep reflection concerning all consequences...
holding a stake in the further development of their closest surroundings. The participation of young people as stakeholders in the vision project is an example of a wider legitimation movement that does not base stakeholder participation on authority but on authenticity (Brown and Michael 2002.
4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of
) 6. Slaughter (2004,92 4) sees the development of Critical Future Studies (CFS) following the traditions of STS in‘challenging the inevitability
According tovoß and Kemp (2006,4) reflexive governance‘refers to the problem of shaping societal development in the light of the reflexivity of steering strategies the phenomenon that thinking
Development and perspectives of foresight in Germany. Technikfolgenabschätzung 12, no. 2: 20 8. Cuhls, K,
Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis. In Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
imagineering sustainable urban development. Paper presented at second international Seville seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 28-29 september 2006, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
the dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd diss. University of Twente. Van Notten, P. 2005.
2. Might there be a suitable baussieq partner to work with us on this development?
whether we want to pursue joint development efforts with another organization. Fig. 2 responds to the second question,
deemed pertinent to deciding on their suitability as a development partner.!Ceramic Fuel cells'patenting trend (lower left) and patent citation tree (upper right) speak to the currency and importance of their intellectual property.!
Fig. 2 profiles one company's activity in this case for one technological development domain, SOFCS. Other variants of company profiling might compare the company's activities across technologies,
It helps devise internal R&d priorities to hit the gaps in external development efforts.!Technology assessment Again, QTIP can help scope the extent of R&d activities.
Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12 13. To close, this bnewq method brings to bear available S&t information resources
Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies theacademy of Finland
which served to inform albeit indirectly the development of the national strategy and the attendant implementation of several Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science and Technology.
when the Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system at large.
further to the recognittio that globalisation is a major determinant of the development of R&i systems.
and to facilitate the development of meaningful priorities at an appropriate level of aggregation. The following key concepts and templates were employed in Finnsight:
or a development that could contribute to the realisation of changes with significant implications for future R&i activities.
(what is the event or development about?)and separate analysis of its significance and impacts (why is this driving force relevant to R&i policy and R&i activities?.
for instance by way of innovations,(iv) through what measures the development of the focus area could be promoted best.
of which was to address driving forces that would set the stage for the development of focus areas each panellist was requested to propose through the internet three to five driving forces using the template.
(i e. how strong a basis do Finnish actors have in the development and applicatiion of knowledge pertaining this focus area of competence?)
because they could start the development of the panel reports from an extensive set of documentation,
3) The importance of cross-disciplinary synergies in the development of path-breaking innovattion suggested that explicit attention should be devoted to the opportunities offered by combinations of the focus areas that were deemed important by the different panels.
and focus areas of competences that it deemed central for the development of the R&i system.
and economic crisis of 2008 09) was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments, due to its relatively small size and the structure of its economy.
In consequence, the panel felt that it is pertinent develop competencies for the analysis of such developments in view of policy and decision making activities.
natural resources Development of bioproduction Measurement methods and diagnostics Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
d) Subsequent policy developments Because foresight is a highly systemic instrument with close linkages to other policy processes that contribute to the development of the R&i system,
Such developments often build on various processes of sense-making and negotiation that draw upon on foresight conclusions.
which contained numerous proposals towards the development of the Finnish research and innovation system (STPC 2006).
the results of Finnsight were published at an opportune moment for the development of the strategic research plans for these centres.
and 88%thought that Finnsight will be important to the development of the Finnish R&i system.
3) consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations; and (4) fixed vs autonomous management of the process. 4. 1. Instrumental vs informative use of foresight results In terms of alternative modes of harnessing foresight conclusions,
instrumental use of foresight refers to the development and deployment of results for specific and foreseen decision-making situations,
while informative use refers to the development of an improved shared understanding of the R&i system
For instance, Finnsight synthesised consensual information about overarchiin developments that were relevant to many organisations in the R&i system (e g. universities, industrial federations, private enterprises.
when making their contributions to panel work. 4. 3. Consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations Consensual development of recommendations can be understood as the creation of jointly characterrise priorities, collaborative networks and future actions,
with an emphasis on points of mutual agreement and apparent consensus. This can be contrasted with dissensual development where the emphasis is purposely on retaining the full range of diverse priorities that may be suggested by different value networks
however in the development of the final panel. Some commentators noted that this variabilitywould have been of sufficient interest to deserve publication (cf.
In hindsight, the development of novel methodological approaches in Finnsight most notably the definition of dedicated units of analysis (driving forces, focus areas of competences) and the extensive deployment of internet-based tools for engaging the panel
Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland. Science and Public policy 28, no. 6: 453 64. Salo, A,
In the development of the FTA series the notion of user engagement was to grow stronger.
and in demand-side innovation policies while also influencing the development of those policies. Schoen et al. address recent developments in foresight theory
and practice which lead them to deploy a hybrid methodological framework involving tailored approaches for specific purposes
They argue that this tailored approach should be adopted in the development of the European research area. Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
These roles are identifying promising technological pathways, engaging relevant stakeholders and creating common visions that move into action.
which analysed content driven Knowledge dynamics on the one hand and the development of institutional and governance arrangements on the meso-and macro-level of research (national and post-national) on the other.
The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.002 The first section of this paper presents the background of this new development concerning Foresight methodology and synthesises the need for a proper tailoring of Foresight.
In the next section, we will analyse the search regimes that are shaping the development of research in the fields selected for the case studies.
2) NGO and green movements have impeded strongly the development of markets for any products including GM component within Europe.
It is composed as a network of research funding organisations responsible for the development of national or regional plant genomics research programmes.
plant genomics development is based a science activity led by industrial companies. This domain displays a strong institutional (i e. inter sectoral) complementarity between industry and academia.‘‘
The immediate conclusion for Foresight is need the for consensus building among stakeholders from industry and civil society for a further development of the European research and innovation system.
Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.
accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract Every month, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments.
The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments, and changes in cultural factors and 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
from international trade flows to the development of new materials that defy comprehension, let alone quantitative analysis and prediction.
They must employ equal vigilance both in sensing developments that might enable new capabilities and in anticipating environmental changes,
are constantly aware of developments emerging beyond their own particular current domain, and recognize oncoming threats in time to turn them into opportunities.
The data points can be events, developments, opinions, research findings, or products that participants believe to be early signals that portend significant changes.
Outliers (events or developments that are off the current trend line! Items that defy conventional wisdom K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1085!
Disruptive developments or technologies. Participating scanners cast their nets broadly to bring in signals of change from various domains,
Developing an intuitive appreciation for unusual patterns and learning to distinguish between truly innovative developments
But that microchip is directly on the projected development curve of microprocessors. Moore's law predicted that chip 20 years ago not quite what we are looking for.
the same employee might submit an abstract on the development of a microchip that contains system-on-a-chip components to enable Wimax wireless broadband access to homes and offices a much more interesting development in terms of enabling dramatic
chief engineer for the development of one of Toyota's recent concept cars, complains that young people today pay more attention to cell phones than to cars.
What's the next development that will be as transformative as the Internet was? Current odds-on favorites among some scanners involve research initiatives funded by the U s. Defense Advanced Research projects Agency (DARPA;
the same group that funded early Internet development) that are looking beyond the packet-switching architecture
Software systems are even available to set up futures markets that allow employees to bet on the market success of various products a company has in development.
Scientific and technical developments are always fair game as interesting abstracts. Rapid developments in neuroimaging research have generated abstracts on neuromarketing, neuroeconomics, consumer behavior, and branding.
Continuing advances in fields of complexity, nonlinear dynamics, and chaos theory in scientific as well as business applications turn up in abstract sets on a regular basis.
unless new developments merit a resurfacing of the topic. 5. The product The most important product of the scanning process is increased an awareness on the part of planners, employees,
The likelihood of strategic plans'being blindsided by external developments increases every year with the increasing complexity and competition in the business environment.
and economic development (see for example the FOREN Guide 5) with a stronger emphasis on indigenous strengths and tapping local tacit knowledge.
Developments here also need to be tracked and better understood. Fig. 1 summarises the results of an analysis of 50 foresight exercises described in the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) database. 1 These exercises listed a total of 199 objectives
but their successful implementation may rely on complementary developments elsewhere (for example in the supply of trained people)
and a disconnection between the development and application of new technologies and the societal and business issues which are wanted by the public and their political representatives.
In this context, embedded foresight activities promote the development of internal collaboration. Cariola and Rolfo link this to an evolution from hierarchical organisational structures with tangible assets to network knowledge-based organisational forms as a backdrop to the formulation of innovation policy 36.
but also opportunities for regulation to foster the development of new markets 37. A series of methodological options, including scientometric indicators,
and developments are needed to the methodologies, both for the quality of results and to convince the regulatory bodies and other stakeholders of their utility.
''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision
This developments have important implications for foresight and particularly for foresight at a time when its utility and potential are being realised both a structuring tool and for the more traditional priority-setting.
FOREN Guide Foresight for Regional development Network A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, European commission, December 2001.6 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (3)( 2003.
it mainly provides evidence on how foresight impacts on policy-making and societal developments. The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects.
Furthermore, the focus on long-term developments and emphasis on the system level analysis, for instance, mean that it has not been easy to evaluate the impacts of the foresight project (for instance,
in order to clarify (i) different roles of foresight in the innovation system and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy and societal developments.
In both fields, in particular the development of alternative scenarios help addressing uncertainties and diverse interconnections between many drivers.
Other benefits that could be achieved through the Foresight process include creation of linkages among participants, development of a shared understanding on the various issues at stake,
Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
Building views of the Nordic potentials in ICT development among key actors. Action proposals and policy recommendations.
Also identification of ICT applications with development potentials in Nordic region; future-oriented elaboration of factors affecting the Nordic business and development environment in ICT.
Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
Instrumental The document is a source for the development of the UK Defence policy. Consensual This process aims to provide new evidence
and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.
Consensual TF2020 has set up 6 pictures of China development in 2020, and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey.
which separates development issues into social and economic factors, emphasising that material gains are not sufficient measures or preservers of human well-being 14.
They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society
but also by development of new services and new ways of doing business and of interacting with citizens 16.
in order to support the development of the Information society in Europe. In parallel with addressing regulatory aspects, the European union (EU) included in its Fifth Framework programme for Research and Technological development (FP5:
1998 2002) a specific programme for research on a"User-friendly information society"."Today, with the i2010 policy framework, the EU aims to"promote the positive contribution that information
IRRIIS Scenario work was part of the European integrated project that provided improved understanding of the developments in the security field.
since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
In the UK, the Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) a Directorate General of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) conducted a foresight process that produced as a key output a report‘‘the DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
It is one of the source documents for the development of the UK Defence policy. The outcomes of DCDC Strategic Trends are target to defence decision-makers
and lead to development of actions and therefore also its usefulness and effectiveness for supporting policy-making is more evident.
, pp. 71 88.13 World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford university Press, New york, 1987.14 Sustainable development: a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
In the last decade, FTA ACTIVITIES and in particular national and Regional foresight programmes have often been oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems.
It is oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems, and involves mutual learning processes, involving stakeholders and experts of many kinds.
and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments, and what their implications may be for future circumstances.
a supposedly expert) population anticipate various types of outcome or rates of development, what key influencing factors are seen as being, and so on.
and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects. There are quite distinct communities at work in different areas of practice, for example environmental/climatological, employment/skills, security/defence,
and methodological development of FTA 3 7. The result is a proliferation of tools. However the accumulation and integration of knowledge about different tools and approaches is very uneven.
the (i) collection,(ii) collation and (iii) summarisation of available information (trends, expected and unusual developments, etc.
and apply an effective systemic understanding of the interplay of major social and technological developments. Despite the phenomenal complexity of the contemporary world, there are possibilities for such individuals
The widening of participation in FTA reflects important social developments, and serves several associated goals (see e g. 12).
Quite often, too, there will be nobody that is really expert on the social issues connected with Emerging s&t developments,
and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology, or the location of renewable energy projects such as windfarms and biofuel plants).
We may anticipate that developments in S&t that profoundly affect our understanding of what it is to be human (e g. cognitive enhancement, artificial intelligence,
The idea that knowledge development takes place through a (typically clockwise) multi-cycle spiral movement through these different SECI cycle categories is a powerful heuristic for explicating FTA EXERCISES and activities.
There are periods where narratives are constructed about possible trajectories of development; where policy or strategy implications and priorities are elaborated;
statistics of major developments relevant to this area; Delphi or other()TD$FIG Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledgee g d e l w o n k t i c i
promote one or other sort of development, and lead to distinctive futures. Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
which provide a record of development and material for presentational purposes, for other groups to inspect, for inclusion in final reports.
Developments in text mining, visualisation, and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.
Modelling and simulation using a wide variety of different approaches and methodologies (agent-based approaches, neural network-type approaches, fuzzy approaches, etc.
Development of rapport and trust can be limited, and dialogue may correspondingly remain more superficial. We would hope that system designers
While this may be very informal codification even involving user-generated tags and the development of tag clouds and‘‘folksonomies,
toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
. Jorgensen, Technology foresight in the nordic countries, A Report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Oslo, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development, Risoe-R-1362 (EN),
While there has been a great deal of emphasis on the development and use of FTA in the public sector there has been substantial growth in foresight and FTA in business.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.006 A short overview of the development of the present situation regarding governance sets the scene for the more detailed analysis of the relationship between governance
The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.
not human, development, depends on the advancement of science and technology, has been accompanied by a growing rejection of technological determinism.
However, it was probably the use of the fission nuclear weapons to end WORLD WAR II that gave added impetus to the questioning of the role of science and technology in human development.
and has support themodern criticismof the role of S&t in human development. During the Cold war nuclear weapons strategies were emphasised by Herman Kahn
and other activist groups, continues unabated introducing more complex intrusion into developments in S&t. These concerns have been assuaged partially by the evolution of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), both
what is needed for sustainable human development and how to achieve its objectives. 3. Accountability of governmental institutions and private sector,
In Europe cohesion policy is seen as the bestway to foster regional development and convergence since itempowers citizens actively to shape their future
and encourages an integrated approach to development which promotes partnership as a key element of good governance.
but was disseminated only worldwide by the World Commission on Environment and Development 21. The concept means development that is able to meet the necessities of the present generation
and does not compromise the rights, and the possibilities of future generations to attend their own necessities.
which are driven by a national plan of between regions and within regions endogenous development. Here
The concept should be understood as the possibility of building a new era of economic development, enabled with policies 22 that keep
Sustainability emerges from the exhaustion crisis of economic development based on rational‘‘growth'economics that subjugates social, cultural, political and environmental matters towards the consequences of economic growth.
and Development in 1992 23 by representatives of 179 countries) and is at the heart of the quest for new forms of global governance. 5. Corporate industrial activity
Hence, a core issue to CSR is partnership development. 2()TD$FIG Fig. 1. The new governance landscape.
7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
what kinds of governance is needed to permit actors external to the innovation processes to become more actively involved in technological development,
At the same time, which FTA METHODS and processes could contribute to enlarge societal participation in development strategies (at local, regional, national and international levels?
Development Sustainability Environment, Newcastle Civic Centre on 27 september 2003 (available at: http://www. thegreatdebate. org. uk/GDDSEDL1. html, last visited on 03 october 2008.
Ph d. Thesis, University of Manchester, 2005.21 UN, Report of World Commission on Environment and Development:
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