Frontiers of futures research: What's next? Theodore J. Gordon, Jerome C. Glenn*,Ana Jakil American Council for the United nations University, 4421 Garrison Street N w.,WASHINGTON DC 20016, United states Received
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1065 So, given these circumstances, how can the domain of the unknowable be reduced?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1066 nonlinear (that is, input and output are related not in a one-to-one fashion) and, through excessive feedback or bgain,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1067 6. Judgment heuristics People often make irrational decisions.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1068 9. Conclusions This paper has identified several frontiers
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1069
The role of the technology barometer in assessing the performance of the national innovation system Torsti Loikkanen a,,
and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.011 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change general public than finding a common trend among many separate indicators.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 The theoretical framework of technology barometer is based on various economic development stages since the first barometer exercise in 2004.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 composite indicators to avoid datamanipulation andmisrepresentation 1. OECD publications 1,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 3. 2. Survey study of future visions In addition to indicator-based comparison the technology barometer instrument includes a survey about people's expectations regarding the future development trends.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 272, were 2nd year students sitting for their matriculation examination.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 most notably in terms of social needs and innovation policy interest, for the kinds of insights that the technology barometer exercise can deliver.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 indicators. Moreover, the process of developing Finnish national strategic centres for science, technology and innovation is underway in the technology fields with future importance for businesses and the society.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Appendix B. Technology barometer 2007 Technology instrument for measuring citizens'attitudes and the nation's orientation towards a knowledge-based
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 References 1 M. Nardo, M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, A. Hoffman, E. Giovannini, Handbook
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186
The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany Kerstin Cuhls a,, Amina Beyer-Kutzner b, Walter Ganz c, Philine Warnke d a Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author. E-mail address: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de (K. Cuhls.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.010 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change 2. Objectives of the national foresight process The BMBF itself in a call for tender formulated four specific targets.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topics were handled, internally assessed and reassessed several times via an internal database and scientific papers.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topic fields were: 1. Life sciences and biotechnology 2. Information and communication technology 3. Materials and their production processes 4. Nanotechnology 5. Optics/photonics/optoelectronics 6. Industrial production processes
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 2. Search phase of the process The second phase of the foresight process encompassed a further national and international search, interviews with Monitoring Panel participants,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 For the survey, in September 2008 altogether 19.365 persons from German companies, academia, associations and single persons (consultants or persons
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 4. Some results In the end, eight new future fields (broader fields) with a different perspective as well as single future topics in all 20
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 How are organisations or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 divisions (Abteilungen and Referate) and experts in BMBF were organised very cautiously
An Attitudinal Perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 25,1984, pp. 281 292.16 K. Cuhls, K. Blind, H. Grupp, Innovations for our future.
Navigating the Complex Landscape of Policy strategies, Technological forecasting & Social Change, vol. 75,2008, pp. 462 482.20 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 22 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197
Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050
and international organisations 1. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 This article does not represent any official opinion of the European Environment Agency,
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.009 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change Methodological approaches to scenario planning are covered well in the academic literature.
and vice versa 13.1199 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 The limitations of the policy cycle concept have been discussed widely.
and weaknesses of several different exercises and assessments of the impacts scenario planning approaches can have on decision-making processes Fig. 1. Forms of scenario-based decision support. 1200 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting
The value in close collaboration between scenario 1201 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 developers and users, particularly at the beginning and ending stages of a scenario exercise,
T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 4. Reviewing practitioners'perspectives 4. 1. Relevance
A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 UK government's strategy on flood and coastal erosion risk management,
T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 made, however, towards getting scenario planning more fully incorporated into processes of policy design, choice and implementation.
From this point of view, some general rules of 1205 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 conduct can be agreed on,
2005.15 T. R. Dye, Understanding Public policy, Prentice hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1984.1206 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198
She is a member of the Global Agenda Council on Strategic foresight of the World Economic Forum. 1207 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207
Despite this belief, almost all Foresight implied wider dimensions Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.013 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change stretching into social, ecological, political and value matters.
which has undergone such a marked erosion in recent years with the shift towards a postmodern world 1209 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221-A dissatisfaction
great patience and extremely good communication skills will be needed. 1210 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 clime.
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 2. 3. Coping with social inclusion Wider participation in Foresight faces severe but not insurmountable obstacles.
and society 1212 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. Participants from the fields of ethics, theology, social theory
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 but usually rate themselves as‘familiar,
1214 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Widespread participation Inclusivity explicitly needs widespread participation and, because of the breadth of the behavioural traits
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 CSH claims to recognise existing inequalities of wealth, status, power, authority, gender, race and sexual orientation
O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 4. 1. 2. Sources of power 4. The management process of Inclusive foresight ought to be open for all to see
23.1217 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 5. Foresight's democratic deficit and nano artifacts The root of Foresight's deficit lies
technological feasibility and artifact desirability of a nano artifact. 1218 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 participation in Foresight relating to these issues.
VALS is a consumer Fig. 4. Growth of a critical mass favouring public acceptance. 1219 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208
Critical systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers, Working Paper No. 23,1998. 1220 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 23
both are at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at the Manchester Business school, the University of Manchester. 1221 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221
Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Tel.:++33 621 716 728 (mobile. E-mail address:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2009.07.015 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change 1. 1. Anticipatory coordination for the responsible development of nanotechnology These general challenges become very specific in the case of nanoscience and nanotechnology.
and was led by the author. 1223 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 There is increasing recognition that innovation emergence is a nonlinear process,
I will call selection environments. 1224 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Sociologically inclined innovation scholars have focused on analysing
and be shaped by the journeys. 1225 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 1. Innovation chain+as a mosaic of co-evolving arenas of innovation and selection with innovation journeys showing coupling, shifting,
deadends etc. 1226 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 For structuring the co-evolutionary scenario narratives,
and the role of technology platforms which came about through institutional entrepreneurship between the framing conditions, the bubbles and the coordinating bodies. 1227 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222
1228 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Fig. 3. Evolution of governance, 2000 2008.1229 D. K
. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 It is not in the scope of this paper to detail the case history of the emergence of RRI for nanotechnology,
while probing and modulating participants'worldviews. 1230 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 3. 2. The scope of the workshop and the nano context at the time From the situation outlined in Section 3. 1,
and so no further tacking possible) enabled wider uptake. 1231 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 These elements provide building blocks to create three scenarios each of them a plausible story about how they might play out (including twists and turns).
The further effect is that this medical option becomes available only to those who can obtain it in another way through private clinics. 1232 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009
and recalled pending certification. 1233 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 option emerges
(and flourish) to take the university research to the market, 1234 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 with the prospect of takeover by larger firms in 3 to 4
attempts to regulate through voluntary initiatives 1235 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 aimed at temporary governance of developments are expected to reduce pressure on regulators so not supplanting regulation but inhibiting it all the same (regardless of good intentions).
while some nanomaterials will be produced below that level. 1236 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 standards causes complication:
and interact within multi-stakeholder workshops. 1237 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 The scenarios use endogenous futures,
33 1238 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 30 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:
Alongside this, he is also a part-time Technical Analyst at the Institute of Nanotechnology (UK) focusing on nanotechnologies in the agrifood sector. 1239 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239
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and co-directs the Technology policy & Assessment Center there//tpac. gatech. edu. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081
But, even more importantly, it familiarizes users with data-based technology analyses The manager who gets the prescribed FTA A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1071 outputs upon
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1072 Innovation indicators are rooted empirical measures in models of how technological innovation proceeds.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1073 Whatever the route the key is that,
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1074! The SOFC topic map (upper right, based on factor analysis of keywords appearing in multiple papers) shows an intriguing bcluster of clustersq in the upper region.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1075 o three companies each show 7
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1076! Within the Scorecard, the Capabilities Spectrum synthesizes information to draw implications regarding this company's relative strengths.!
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1077 bprocess managementq factors should be considered for all types of QTIP players:!
This paper explores the potential to expedite certain technological intelligence functions. btech A l. Porter/Technological forecasting
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1079! 8: 40 am: I search a compilation of Georgia Tech publication records to augment the VP's awareness of who is active in fuel cells.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1080 But it is worth the effort.
J. Watts, A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technological forecasting and Social Change 56 (1997) 25 47.4 N c. Newman, A l. Porter, J. Yang, Information professionals:
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1081
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:11 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
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Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26. Könnölä, T.,Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari,
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toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303, in press. 2 T. J. Gordon, J. C. Glenn (Eds.
and the long wave, Futures 34 (3 4 april 2002) 317 336.5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU-US seminar, Technological forecasting
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.10 B.-A°.Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation:
refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:
industrial activities in wireless communications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (9)( 2004) 897 912.41 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, in:
kpatton@sric-bi. com, www. sric-bi. com. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 public opinion means that highly structured strategic plans are limiting if not downright dangerous.
Q The K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1083 marketplace is a turbulent confluence of commercial, cultural,
Dorothy Leonard-Barton, in K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1084 her Wellsprings of Knowledge 5, maintains that the process of introducing external streams
Items that defy conventional wisdom K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1085!
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1086 month the database administrator closes off submissions for the month and directs the continuing stream of abstracts into a new set for the next month.
Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa
The facilitator keeps the discussion reasonably close to K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1088 the abstracts'data points to make sure that the meeting does not degenerate into a discussion unrelated to the real-world marketplace
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1089 backgrounds, from technology to specialties in consumer behavior, from engineering to anthropology,
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1090 Employees participate primarily on a voluntary basis
and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1092 8 Jessie Scanlon, Big business:
Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005
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which are rooted in technological forecasting although it is claimed that FTA ACTIVITIES are inclusive, but the‘quality'of such inclusion is arguable.
On discontinuity and scenario development, Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 2, 175 194.12 S. Mendonc¸A m. P. Cunha, F. Ruff, J. Kaivo-oja
and a special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change 5. The second Conference in 2006 enlarged the geographical base of participants,
This led to a book published by Springer 6 and special issues in Technological forecasting and Social Change 7,
The 2004 EU-US Seminar, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (9)( 2005. 6 Cagnin, et al.
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9
introduction to section 2'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, pp. 917-23. About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
A brief look backward and forward'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78 No. 9, pp. 1712-9. PAGE 314 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Mannermaa, M
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1. Introduction Assessing emerging technologies is a necessary,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1095 2. Method:
because it R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1096 has changed the perception
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1098 3. Case: nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1100 Nantero (US Patent No. 20030165074.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1101 However, there are other voices that agitate against this.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1102 (Korea) did just that.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1104 3. 2. Tracing agenda building
and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1106 These insights and empirical findings give the opportunity to trace emerging irreversibilities
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1107 As mentioned in Section 2,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1109 5 H. Van Lente, Forceful futures:
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1110 35 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios
H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1111
Linking territorial foresight and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity
such as the special editions of Technological forecasting and Social Change vol. 75 (4); Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3;
Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
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