when stating that foresight can be seen as a governance process, whereas 43 claim that this happens through shared
foresight can help actors to anticipate and manage emerging challenges. It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions
(thus supporting phases 3 and 4). Enabling spaces like this through foresight embedded within the proposed system to formalise this collective process of mutual learning and experimentation would enable increased communication across the value chain.
C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 56 Foresight also supports the firm's and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision
and includes FTA elements into this structure to empower the organisation to appropriately apply foresight in business 39 using a PMS.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed 10.11). 47 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Phd thesis), Manchester Institute of Innovation research, 2006.48 E
50 C. Bezold, C. Bettles, C. Juech, E. Michelson, J. Peck, K. Wilkins, Foresight for Smart Globalization:
Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, Institute for Alternative futures, Alexandria, VA, 2009.51 C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la, Global foresight:
Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,
and how corporate foresight affects companies'innovative capabilities 5. In 2003, Chesbrough coined the term‘Open innovation'to describe the paradigm‘‘that firms can
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks.
and foresight are related to what extent networked foresight activities exist and how they are practiced. For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework
‘Networked foresight'is clearly observable in all three cases. Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight.
However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly. The advantages that‘networked foresight'entails could be exploited to a much higher degree for the networks themselves, e g.,
, the broad resource base and the large pool of people with diverse backgrounds that are available.
2) Do activities that could be named‘networked foresight'exist?(3) How are these activities currently conducted?
In the next section the concept of networked foresight is approached in two ways: first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research;
and the categorization of foresight is explained. This is followed by the description of the three cases according to the CIM concepts.
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
fast technological change and innovation speed to corporate foresight through the necessity of companies to renew their strategic resources as a result of these factors.
one of the previously listed three roles that corporate foresight should play within a company.
Rohrbeck, Ho lzle and Gemu nden discuss the role of futures research for corporate innovativeness in the form of foresight workshops 8. These workshops are identified as one instrument of Deutsche telekom for embracing the open innovation paradigm
Thus, the project filled the third key role of foresight as described above while clearly embracing the open approach by using outside sources within the corporate innovation process.
In this section we have shown two paths that led us to believe that networked foresight is the next generation of futures research:
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
Second, past studies on foresight, collaboration in innovation and open innovation reveal the link between foresight and collaborative innovation,
also suggesting that networked foresight will indeed become increasingly important. However, systematic research about futures research in innovation networks as one form to embrace open innovation is lacking.
4 Innovation in systems or networks Networked foresight P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role.
The goal is to identify and characterize‘networked foresight'as the basis for further research. 3. Methodology 3. 1. Study design For analyzing the link between futures research
and innovation networks and assessing the use of networked foresight activities this study uses a multi-case design.
in our case‘networked foresight'.'The cases in this article allow the focal phenomenon to be described
the conclusion would be networked that systematic foresight is practiced not. Additionally, the application of the CIM can reveal various system failures that can limit the effectiveness of the use of futures research.
or formalized networked foresight concepts or processes. Also, that it might be that components of the CIM are linked not to each other in a cyclical way.
Thus, the cases will show different levels of networked foresight. In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized,
In this article the network orientation of foresight is described and analyzed, but not formalized. The CIM provides a common basis for the analysis of the three cases
and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases. In the case evaluations
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
and opponent (Table 2). When foresight is implemented to contribute through these three roles 5, expect the ability of the firm to innovate
the network manager had Table 2 The three roles of foresight as described by Rohrbeck
and Gemu nden 5. Foresight role Impact Initiator role Identify new needs Identify emerging technologies Identify competitors'concepts early Strategist role Assess
and an annual selection process (quality assurance) add to the aforementioned foresight instruments innovation radar and best-practice benchmarking.
and networked approach to foresight to identify and explore innovations for Dutch water management. While the process model was adopted to integrate multiple parties as well,
Beneficiaries of foresight were primarily the innovation activities originating from WINN and partly WINN itself. The latter in terms of identification of relevant developments and strategic guidance.
The partner network could be used to a higher degree within mid-to long-term foresight instruments and recurring activities.
including networked foresight. Fig. 3 visualizes EICT in regard to its openness and future orientation based on the CIM. 5. 2. 1. Networked foresight activities The partners use EICT's competences in foresight mainly on a project basis and for specific thematic topics;
therein pooling the knowledge and information of several partners. Thus, it is expected that the outcome of foresight is enhanced due to the partner network of EICT.
The project-based approach reduces the risk of failure and keeps investment levels low. However, the partners do not use the full potential of the network.
and matched to the three roles of foresight. Based on the CIM evaluation and the analyzed foresight activities the following conclusions can be drawn for EICT:
1. EICT applies foresight instruments mostly on a project basis for its network partners. Within the projects EICT's network is leveraged for information collection
EICT's own foresight competences could complement these meetings. 4. The existing foresight activities could be utilized to capture external developments adequately to guide EICT prepare it for the future. 5. Foresight would benefit from additional network partners that add to the existing knowledge base.
Table 6 The scope of the foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
and to a lesser degree competitors'concepts at an early stage (initiator role of foresight). Several instruments consolidate opinions
and to scan for disruptions (opponent role of foresight). In Table 8 the foresight activities are matched to the three roles defined by Rohrbeck and Gemu nden 5. Additionally,
1. Within the EIT ICT Labs foresight that utilizes the network on various levels is practiced. 2. Beneficiaries of these activities are the network partners and the network itself.
Table 7 The scope of the foresight activities in the EICT and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
and business results. 5. The existence of a management team within the network facilitates the use of results from networked foresight to define
and guide the future of the network. 5. 4. Cross-case evaluation 5. 4. 1. Toward networked foresight within the three cases In Fig. 5 the classification of the foresight activities in terms scope
and foresight role are shown on a grid for each case. Additionally, the shape of the boxes represents the type of activity in the sense of long-term program,
The emphasis of WINN activities is on the strategist role of foresight: first, to assess
In the sense of this article the WINN activities can be characterized as foresight supported by a loosely linked network.
EICT predominantly creates a platform for networked foresight‘on demand 'and on a project basis. When one of the network partners requests futures research for a selected topic EICT creates a network tailored for that topic
and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.
The activities in this case can be described as project-based networked foresight. The EIT ICT Labs are a network as such.
Networked foresight is driven endogenously in selected fields with dedicated funds. Foresight activities are longer-term activities than in the other two cases.
Thus, although the activities belong to the strategist role of foresight, they initiate, consolidate and evaluate new ideas, technologies, etc. as well.
Futures research in the EIT ICT Labs can be characterized as thematically driven networked foresight conducted by equal partners. 5. 4. 2. Networked foresight linked to open innovation
first, foresight can and should be used to develop a suitable process model toward an envisioned future of an innovation network.
The networks can benefit from networked foresight especially due to its varying perspectives, diverse backgrounds of the involved people and broad information base.
Second, foresight and especially networked foresight can also be used to guide the transition path toward the envisioned future.
When combining the differences in networked foresight with further research on collaboration in innovation at least two known‘process archetypes of open innovation'are observable in the cases:
The role refers to three known roles that foresight plays: the initiator, strategist and opponent role.
Fig. 5. Foresight activities from the cases matched to foresight roles, scope and type of activity.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
first, the close connection and analogies of innovation management and futures research hint at networked foresight as the logical next generation of futures research;
second, the close connection between foresight, collaborative innovation and open innovation suggests that networked foresight is already being practiced,
EICT and the EIT ICT Labs implicate that networked foresight is indeed in use. The application of the Cyclic Innovation Model shows that the envisioned and practiced openness of the three networks differs substantially.
Furthermore, the use of foresight within the networks could be increased (1) to address the future of the networks themselves
The smaller networks of RWS and EICT concentrate on foresight with a focus on strategic implications, ideation or initiation of new business activities thus the strategist and initiator roles of foresight. 9 In contrast,
the opposition role of foresight is strengthened in the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. This appears to be explicable with the inevitably added new perspectives and consolidation of unconnected information through the network.
In contrast, the role of foresight is limited not. On the contrary, foresight that serves all three roles is facilitated
when conducted in the networks. It should be noted that this article is based on data from three cases.
Although these give important impulses for research addressing foresight and implicate networked foresight as a new generation of foresight,
empirical and quantitative analyses are needed in order to ensure reliability and generalizability of any conclusions. References 1 R. Cooper
results of a quantitative benchmarking study, R&d Management 37 (2007) 383 397.5 R. Rohrbeck, H. Gemu nden, Corporate foresight:
I. L. Darkow, Corporate foresight and innovation management: a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips,
and tipping points, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 715 730.19 K. Cuhls, Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan, Technology analysis & Strategic management 13 (2001) 555 569.20 K
G. Uerz, Corporate foresight in Europe: ready for the next step? in: 2nd International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
of foresight appears to be need in of further research:‘‘‘‘consolidation of opinions''and‘‘identification of new business models''appear to initiate new activities instead of altering strategy.
Labs, 2012.58 N. Thom, Foresight in innovation networks: the EIT innovation radar example, in: ISPIM Innovation Symposium, Wellington, 2011.59 R. Rohrbeck, L. H. Pirelli, The European Institute of Innovation and Technology:
This biannual conference provides a common platform for user communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges.
Dr Jennifer Cassingena Harper is the director of policy within the Malta Council for Science and Technology with responsibility for national research and innovation strategy and foresight.
What has been accepted by many FTA practitioners as‘post-foresight, 'and hence not their responsibility, should now be recognised as an integral part of the FTA PROCESS.
The paper by Calof and Smith contributes to the definition of successful foresight studies by identifyiin a set of critical success factors for governmentlle foresight
They conclude that foresight prograamme need a clearly identified client, a clear link with today's policy agenda and propose some reseaarc questions to further analyse these critical succees factors.
Their analysis is based on the results of two surveys of selected international foresight practitiioner and leading foresight organisations, conduccte by Canada's Office of the National science Advisor and the Telfer School of management at the University of Ottawa,
Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight. Brussels: European commission. Popper, R 2008. Foresight methodology. In The Handbook of Technology foresight:
Systems thinking for foresight, Phd thesis. PREST, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester. Scapolo, F and A l Porter 2008.
Foresight in a nonprofit organisation: a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis,
which combined the foresight activities of at least 3 5 of the foresight programming bodies. To achieve this a pilot project
it was envisaged that it would be less difficult to create a joint approach in contrast to foresight activiitie with a more specific focus.
and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda (this definition has been derived from the UK Foresight Horizon scanning Centre (HSC) and Horizon scan Netherlands),
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
Departmental Victor van Rij is senior advisor foresight of the Knowledge Directtorat of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science in The netherlands.
The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
and create a common corpus for further analysis a joint database was developed on basis of the Sigma Scan of the UK Foresight HSC.
An attempt was made also to select some issue clusters with estimated high impact to investigate the usefulnees of joint horizon scanning as preparation for more in-depth foresight to design common policies
and foresight are aimed explicitly at developing resillien policies that are adaptive to changing and uncerrtai futures.
In addition to the scanning and foresight there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society.
Horizon scanning can therefore be seen as an adapttiv foresight (Eriksson and Weber, 2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
and sets of issues which cross policy domains for further focused foresight (improving the scoping of these foresiigh activities) and research.
more focused foresight and the formulation of recommendations for research and policy. Next to this, a more client-oriented‘scan proof'approach was developed
and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups. Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS
An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting.
COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight and identifying crosscutting departmental themes; the horizon scan started in 2004 to guide this search in a systematic way.
Available at<http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20scanning%20centre/index. asp>,last accessed 1 june 2009.7.
Available at<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/keytechnoologiesreport. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
<http://cordis. europa. eu/foresight/kte expert group 2005. htm>,last accessed 1 Februuar 2010.10. The European Information Network on New and Changing Health Technologies.
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Foresight analysis. Available at<http://www. icsu. org/Gestion/img/ICSU DOC DOWNLOAD/371 dd file foresight analysis. pdf>,last accessse 1 june 2009.
A Comprehensive analysis of Science and Technollog Benchmarking and Foresight, NISTEP report 99. Tokyyo NISTEP. Available from:<
Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
The impact of the foresight on policy was limited as it did not lead to direct policy measures,
Matthias Weber is at the Austrian Institute of technology, Departtmen Foresight and Policy development, Donau-City-Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria;
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
Much of his research work builds on foresight-type of approaches which aim to support the formattio of policy strategies and associated governance models.
adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
where the fast pace of change can rapidly make any foresight outcomes obsolete. As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
Finally, the creative content sector foresight becaam a particular challenge because of the high degrre of uncertainty in all (technological, economic, social and structural) dimensions,
Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35. Gordon, T J and A Pease 2006.
Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decisiionmaking. Futures, 38 (8), 908 924.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Critical success factors for government-led foresight Jonathan Calof and Jack E Smith This paper reports on an integrated
It analyzes the key factors that appear to determine whether or not foresight, once launched by a government,
and as the growth of the foresight function. Taken together, the results should help organizations establish the parameters for a successful foresight program.
ANADA HAS DEVOTED considerable enerrg to understanding the whys and wherefoore of foresight, largely as a prelude to asking what would be useful to do
and the rationale for foresight but little about the factors that lead to foresight success. As will be reported later in this paper, even the concept of
It analyzes the key operational success factors that appear to determiin whether or not foresight,
all interviewees mentioned the importance of the results of foresight being used to inform or guide policy decisions.
Thus, program impact via policy appears to be the most important macro-objective for foresight.
in the present era of public funding accountability, remaining viable in the long term seems to be a critical indicator of success. In terms of critical success factors it was interestiin to note that all the studies showed that foresight delivery
and so best methods practiic is spreading rapidly within the foresight communnity Thus, although the methodology of foresight study and focus is important,
Establish a clear link between foresight and todaay'policy agenda. C Jonathan Calof (corresponding author) and Jack E Smith are at the Telfer School of management, Desmarais Building, Universiit of Ottawa, 55 Laurier Avenue East, Ottawa K1n
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
which enable foresight to be launched successful once by government, we are less clear about the necessary preconditions for initiating foresight that can be positioned for success. Thus,
we conclude the paper by identifying a series of questions that will require further research to confiir the influence of political-foundational
and mandate factors on foresight structure, delivery strategies and operational positioning. Methodology The primary study methodology was interviews with the directors of successful foresight programs to learn from them what factors led to success and, of course,
and asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations, and which factors were instrumental in their assessment of those organizations.
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institutions'perception of what constitutes foresight success. Organizations
and representatives interviewed incluuded Forfas in Ireland, the National Institute for S&t policy (NISTEP) in Japan, the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Center for Technoloog Foresight in Thailand, Finnsight 2015 (encompasssin a mix of Nokia
In the next phase, nine foresight institutions identiffie during the first study were contacted, direct contact was established then
The results of the interviews were examined by an expert group who in turn selected commonly recurring comments made by the foresight directors that appeaare to be critical success factors.
Foresight: how is defined success? At the most basic level, success can be defined as attainnmen of the foresight programs goals.
one of the objectives of the research was to look at how the practitioners of foresight defined primary program success. After a comprehensive reviie of foresight evaluation
he combines research and consultiin in competitive intelligence, foresight and management insight in the creation of the university's management insiigh program.
He maintains active connecttion with foresight organizations in Europe, Asia, the US and Brazil. Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
as well as the integrity of the processes employed: e g. debates, inclusiveness, actor alignment etc. and foresiigh impact in terms of learning effects,
and articulate the intended direct benefits of foresight. Georghiou and Keenan (2004) recognized this when they wrote that:
Despite the spread of foresight experience across Europe and beyond, there has not so far Table 1. Foresight:
FTA objectives reported by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN)* A review by the authors of reports on mapping foresight by the EFMN reveals the wide range of objectives that different nations
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
repositioning of old ones Establishment of communications structures between innovation actors Support the empowerment of (innovation and futures) systems actors Contribute towards the development of actor identities Foresight provides many opportunities for enhanced
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
*See the website of the EFMN<http://www. foresight-network. eu, >last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
In particular, foresight has not been evaluated as an instrument of science and innovation policy. Thus the real effect of foresight on priorities may be difficult to determine.
This concept of direct impact was identified also by Van der meulen et al. 2003): ) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
Carlson (2004) also echoed these sentiments. Foresight success: what factors are associated with foresight success? We did not find much literature that looked at foresiigh success factors.
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
and they remiin us that FTA is also a sociopolitical activity and should be understood as such.
the objective of this paper and the study in general is to better understand exactly what foresight success is and the factors that lead to this success. Essentially,
it involves asking a series of strategic questions to national foresight expeert identified through global foresight networks,
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
The objective of this phase was to identify the organizations that the experts in foresight felt were the most successful.
and implementation of a successful Foresight progrram Are there pitfalls to be avoided? What are the critical differences in national foresiigh program models?
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institution's perception as to what constitutes foresight success. Foresight organizations
Finnsight 2015 (encompassing a mix of Nokia plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES and SITRA) and Helsinki University of Technologgy in Finland UK Foresight, third phase 2004 2008;
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures? What is the foresight funding model?
What levels of resources has received foresight? How are allocated foresight resources? What is the foresight project selection process?
How has evolved the foresight program over time? Do you have a foresight wish list? In the final phase, senior representative (s) from the nine foresight institutions identified during the first study were contacted by email and/or through direec telephone conversations to request additional information,
to confirm the results from the first study and to seek additional information and claritty This study involved various qualitative and quantitative research methods including:
a detailed literature review; a short email questionnaire; interviiew with foresight practitioners, managers responnsibl for national foresight efforts in various countries, and;
reviews of foresight project level summaries and overviews from the EFMN (part of the European foresight Knowledge sharing Platfoor which monitors
Table 4. Criteria for improving the impact of foresight studies Foresight content criteria Plausibility; convenience and usability of results;
inspiration and appropriate temporal perspective Foresight process criteria Structured way of production and deliverance of foresight thinking;
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(What were the specific needs? What were the challenges?
novel policy initiative (s), greater public foresight awareness, increased networkking new programs, direct impact on the innovaatio infrastructure etc.
or foresight support in your country? What amount? How many full-time equivalent staff per year work in the national foresight program?(
2007) Is financial support for foresight in your country stable, growing or decreasing in 2007 2008?
Is there a central foresight web page? are included web links? Is there a foresight support agency (or departmeent in your government?
are centralized the foresight activities or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
or culture? What do you think are the critical success factors? What has done your country in various foresight initiatives (national, supranational,
regional or sector) to promote public participation? So much data was collected during these studies than it could not all be reported in one paper,
All interviewees mentioned the importance of the results of foresight being used to inform or guide policy decisions.
So we concluded that achieving program impact via policy appears to be the most important macroobjeectiv for foresight:
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
critical success factors What is interesting to note from all the studies was that the foresight delivery
but comes out on par on spending in sector or industry foresight efforts; Methods used: Four methods were particularly popular:
and foresight center established and supported by APEC, through active co-operation of Thailand and other APEC member economies,
what is required for foresight success Focus (es) on a clearly identified client: In all cases these successful functions were housed within a ministry responsible for innovation.
this was identified as the primary client for the foresight results. Clear link between foresight and today's policy agenda:
Using the most advanced foresight methodds matched to the specific task, ensures an effecctiv link to current government actions.
A key requirement is to develop foresight capacity amongst senior decision-makers so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government.
The UK seems to have developed this capacity the most where the science advisor has repeatedly been able to engaag key ministries as joint sponsors and receptoor for the results.
the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
Excelleen foresight is both time sensitive and attractive to those motivated to detect change ahead of its appearance,
because they were an important part of validating the advantage of foresight to new clients and new topic areas.
A clear need at the start is a national local academic receptor capability for foresight skills and training.
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
nevertheless some appreciation for the contributions that foresight can make to general S&t preparedness. Based on the studies that were done,
Canada's foresight progrram based in the National science Advisor's (NSA) Office was disbanded in March 2008
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
as early as in 2005 2006, it enabled the authhor to predict the demise of the Canadian foresight effort.
or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time. If this Table 6:
Key success factors applied to Canadian foresight Key success factor Application analysis Significant and clear client:
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
being clearly more receptive and supportive of foresight initiatives. The result has been projects which align with some of the areas where policy will be required,(e g. health technology, agricultural innovation,
evident but not strong enough to counter inside government weaknesses The various foresight initiatives all involved private sector leaders
and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
somewhat, but little capacity existed in Canada for academic foresight in 2005 2008 Canada has limited only a number of foresight focused academics,
however, most professors who could be aligned with foresight in Canada had some connection to ONSA or to the Foresight Directorate,
and the program as initially formulated did not survive Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
Further studies should validate these factors by applying them to different foresight organizations, both those that succeeded and those that failed.
In addition, this study focused on a small set of foresight practitioneer (30) and organizations (9
future foresight assesssment may wish to expand the sample base in an attempt to both validate the critical success factors
what we hope will be a stream of other research that helps identify factors leading to foresight success. Finally,
For example, while we learned that a clear communicatiio strategy was felt to contribute to foresight succeess exactly how should these strategies be designed?
The foresight literature is rich on the issue of different methodologiie and project selection but not on the seven factoor identified in this study.
what should be the key measure of foresight progrra success. Unfortunately, as was described by Barré
survival and the dynamics of managing regime transitions that remain a continuing challenge to foresight advocates
Interpreting foresight procees impacts: steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.
Available at<http://www. foresight-network. eu>,last accessse 3 february 2010. Georghiou, Luke and Michael Keenan 2004.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
a systematti exploration of the strategic value of foresight. Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2/3), 219 213
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