Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
The pluralistic nature of the US R&d system, the diverse, dynamic nature of US national political bodies and the limitations of US foresight history makes centralized goal-setting across many
Participation The NNI fulfilled the functions usually associated with foresight initiatives 59. The NNI's early nanotechnology assessment studies indicated to the public that policy was based on scientific knowledge information
Acknowledgements This paper builds on earlier research on the governance of nanotechnology in Germany funded by the German Research Foundation DFG and also on studies for an AIT funded project on the impact of foresight (Sufo Sustainable Foresight.
, 2009.26 P. Dannemand Andersen, B. Rasmussen, M. Strange, J. Haisler, Technology foresight on Danish nanoscience and nano-technology, Foresight, J. Futur.
International Handbook on Foresight and Science policy: Concepts and Practice, 2008, pp. 154 169.33 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2003) 93 111.34
foresight, engagement, and integration, in: O. A. Edward, J. Hackett, Michael E. Lynch, Judy Wajcman (Eds.
Her current research focuses on foresight, governance of emerging technologies, and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Received 14 may 2011 Revised 25 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations.
In many cases mode 1 foresight 1 that fosters the recognition of intra-systemic alternatives, underpins the optimisation of robust strategies within the existing paradigm,
Section 4 presents conclusions for future applications of transformative foresight. 2. INFU methodology The INFU project envisioned
foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations. Four methodological innovations were adopted in the project and contributed in a specific way to opening up newperspectives for thinking about the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes:
The value of the contributions of actors from different perspectives was exploited much better than in conventional workshops where participants'contributions are documented by the foresight team.
, L a. Smits, Foresight in Action: Developing Policy-oriented Scenarios, Earthscan Publ. Ltd. London u. a.,2010.19 F. Liebl, Rethinking trends
She has been Deputy Head of the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight between 2009 and 2011.
Philine Warnke is a researcher in the Foresight & Policy development Department of the Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in Vienna.
In the past ten years she has worked on Foresight at Fraunhofer ISI and at the European commission's institute for prospective technological studies JRC-IPTS.
this essay reflects on the implications of the current period of instability and discontinuity for the practice of FTA or foresight.
In the past the demand environment for foresight on research and innovation policy favoured application to priority-setting and articulation of demand.
Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
of the conference series and foresight as the label for most of the activities it presents.
and presentations discussed use the term foresight interchangeably. Let us then set the scene against
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy, Futures 43 (3)( 2011) 243 251.10 L. Georghiou, Europe's research system must change, Nature 452 (2008) 935
T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber
His research interests are demand-side innovation policy, foresight and evaluation. He is active in policy advice to governments and business and as Vice-president for Research and Innovation at the University of Manchester.
Her research interests are foresight and STI policy with a particular emphasis on small and transition economies.
She is active in foresight and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467
and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
and assess differences between policy foresight at the local/regional and national levels. By evaluating six Dutch Foresight exercises from the point of view of policy makers as‘‘users''of foresight studies they highlight the importance of taking into account differences between the national and local level when designing an FTA PROCESS.
and Ko nno la, can also be allocated to category (a). This paper suggests that endogenous improvement to FTA PROCESSES is about tailoring Foresight design to the specific applied context.
De Moor et al. develop the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight ''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes.
For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
Like De Moor et al. this paper uses established Foresight theories applied to selected cases that provide evidence in support of their hypotheses.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and‘‘networked Foresight''.''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
and suggest that networked foresight is‘‘the logical next generation of futures research.''''The time it has taken to edit
‘‘constant tension between foresight and FTA, with conflicting views on which is a subset of the other.''
On the foresight side not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods,
As a result the foresight voices often appeared internally contradictory, starting out from the premise of the unknowability of the future
as if FTA TOOLS and Foresight more generally are used just to respond to policy and business questions as they arise,
and implementation of FTA and foresight avoid incoherence or even contradictions between methods and outcomes.
, Denmark 1. Introduction This paper originates from two issues that are being discussed in the current academic literature on foresight and in the international foresight community.
The first issue concerns the integration of foresight into national policy-making processes. Foresight projects have often been carried out as stand-alone activities
and have been partly decoupled from the processes into which the results of the foresight must feed.
focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
and concepts such as adaptive foresight 5 and systemic foresight 6 have been suggested for the development of more tailored foresight processes.
Among the contributions to this discussion, the key conclusion is that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to foresight.
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
There is no doubt that each foresight exercise must be adapted narrowly to its actual context. Nevertheless, both practitioners who are carrying out foresight processes
Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
The literature has suggested several simplified contexts for foresight. Some of the literature has suggested that a decisive context for national foresight exercises relates to the size of the country.
The seminal book Foresight in Science by Irvine and Martin analysed processes in France, West germany, the United states and Japan
In a paper titled‘Foresight in Smaller Countries',Crehan and Harper analysed foresight in Malta, Cyprus and Estonia 8. In another example, Glod,
Duprel and Keenan recently published a paper entitled‘Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
In line with this regional approach to contextual categorisation, Keenan and Popper have discussed regional styles of foresight for six regions 11.
and using foresight in policy-making. The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
Hence, the aim of this paper is to contribute, in general, to the discussion of national (or political, governing,
In the paper, we broadly adopt the European foresight Platform's definition of foresight as‘a systematic, participatory,
'In parallel with the term‘foresight',the term‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)' is used by the European commission's Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), for example.
As, in practice, both foresight and FTA draw on, by and large, the same methodological foundation, this paper draws on the literature for both terms.
and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning. Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture
and discussed. 2. National traditions and governance culture as context for foresight In this section, we introduce a conceptual framework of national traditions
and governance culture for analysing foresight and priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies. 2. 1. Sociologists'and anthropologists'perception of culture Cultural differences and styles are very hard to quantify,
These two dimensions are of interest in foresight because, as Hofstede notes, these two dimensions have obvious consequences for the way in
both the power distance and uncertainty avoidance might affect the use of foresight in at least three areas:
the use of longer-term planning tools such as foresight in general, the selection of foresight methods, and the inclusion of experts and citizens.
In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight: types of planning, meaning of time, and tolerance for deviant ideas.
The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,
Keenan and Popper discussed regional styles in foresight. In their context, the term‘‘regional''refers to geographical clusters of countries 11.
Keenan and Popper focus on foresight as a political instrument, and naturally, make some simplifying assumptions about political traditions.
The second factor is the history of foresight diffusion and adoption. The key point of view here is that history matters in the sense that foresight activities are inspired often by earlier activities in other countries.
it challenges the role of the history of foresight diffusion and adoption across and within the regions of many countries.
sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style
''foresight based on the socioeconomic and cultural features described above. 3. 1. Danish traditions and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
this section contains background information for understanding the use of governmental foresight and long range planning.
Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight and similar systematic processes in policy making in science, technology and innovation policies or other policy areas.
This late adoption may be due to several reasons. First, during the 1970s, Denmark had some rather negative experiences with prospective planning.
Consequently, there was less need for policy mechanisms like foresight to define priorities for the governmental expenditure on r&d.
The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
In conclusion, historically, Denmark has had a weak tradition of applying foresight and similar systematic, forwardloookin processes in national-level policy making.
This changing context has created a need for foresight understood to be political priority-setting for strategic research. 3. 2. Danish experiments with technology foresight In a green paper from 1995,
A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001. The allocated budget consisted of DKK 24 million (ca. EUR 3. 2 million) for the period of 2001 2004.
Although Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight explicitly, it must be noted that over several decades,
Denmark has carried out foresight-like processes and strategic planning within individual sectors. For example various energy action plans have many similarities to foresight, both with regard to the processes and results.
Another example is the widespread use of futures workshops and citizens panels in municipal and regional planning.
and negotiations among societal stakeholders mirror the‘mobilising joint actions'content of the European foresight Platform's definition of foresight,
and using foresight in policy making. To qualify the concept of national governance culture, we have suggested drawing on the classical work of Geert Hofstede.
Most of the academic foresight literature is of a descriptive and normative type and reflects the practice of foresight in different contexts.
We have shown an improved framework for comparing and analysing national differences on foresight. However, there is still much to be understood about national governance cultures'effects on foresight,
and there is a need for more systematic research on this topic. Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
The authors are thankful to Doris Schartinger from the Austrian Institute of technology for comments on the early version of the paper and to the anonymous reviewers who,
References 1 EFP,‘‘Foresight and forward-looking activities exploring new european perspectives,''summary of major findings, in:
http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.
2 T. Ko nno la, F. Scapolo, P. Desruelle, R. Mu, Foresight tackling societal challenges:
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Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a‘supply-driven'point of view, by
We compared the findings of the case studies in the local public domain with two studies on the use of foresight at a national level (see 23,24),
The first study conducted by the authors examined how Dutch departments use foresight to develop policy and strategy 23(‘policy foresight'.
1) an analysis of what foresight means to the interviewees and (2) an analysis of the way policy and strategy processes take place.
However, since the aim was to explore how foresight and strategy are related in policy processes at a national level,
In addition, a survey was conducted among civil servants involved with foresight policy and strategy. The response rate was over 40%(120 surveys completed) with a large majority of the respondents (88%)working for Dutch Ministries (such as Justice and Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.
The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.
'In each Department (thirteen in total), one interview was conducted to obtain a broad view of how Dutch ministries deal with foresight and organisational development.
and serve as a source of inspiration for new dialogues within the foresight research community. 3 Results The insights from the local
'The‘policy foresight'analysis showed that, in addition to scenarios (with which 99%of the respondents were familiar),
people are more familiar and experienced with foresight for policymakkin purposes than at the local level.
Nevertheless, at both levels, there are reasons for outsourcing foresight. However, at the national level, the motive is to increase objectivity,
When we compare these motives to the foresight functions proposed by Da Costa et al. 25,
The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(1) signalling new developments,
In all case studies, external organisations specialising in foresight assisted in developing and/or applying the future analysis,
and/or by delivering content for the foresight analysis. One of the lessons learnt with respect to external assistance was that,
If this‘foresight champion',i e.,, the initiator and main developer of the foresight study, should decide to leave the organisation,
The national level analysis also shows that foresight is a‘human affair, 'meaning that, despite the importance and wide range of methods,
There were also similarities with regard to the implementation of foresight studies and the use of foresight insights, for example the important success factors of leadership and confidence in the process.
Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers
whether foresight is identical at both levels, and the prefixes‘local'and‘national'do not serve any purpose with regard to foresight studies.
Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available, different reasons and motives for setting up a foresight study may be legitimate,
evaluating foresight that fits, Futures 44 (2012) 475 486.30 S. A. Van't Klooster, M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,
the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:
Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,
This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
Foresight has been applied at global and regional levels to support the design and implementation of policies and strategies.
Examples range from the European commission through the Framework programmes and its Joint research Centre, the OECD through its International Futures Programme, UNIDO through its Technology foresight Initiative, the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Centre for Technology foresight, the UK Foresight
Four principles for global foresight design and management are identified. The ways in which these have been dealt with in practice are outlined in Section 3 on the basis of a case study,
Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
Our contention is that these design requirements can be met on the basis of four guiding principles for global foresight.
and a‘glocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed
when they affirm that one of the defining features of foresight is the creative generation of synthetic knowledge
In the international setting, those involved in the discussions may not be acquainted with foresight, or have different interpretations of it.
The latter claims that foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process to that of individual actors'strategies.
The basic idea is to add a process cycle to complement foresight with a phase of‘strategic counselling'.
Such flexibility can also serve diverse users of foresight results, thus leading to diverse impacts in different regions and conditions. 3. Case:
Fig. 2. IMS2020 modular foresight design. 4 A large community closely supported the project across its lifespan,
and an edited book. 4. Revisiting the principles for global foresight The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise
The modular foresight design described in Fig. 2 (Section 3) allowed engagement of numerous participants in different roles and with different kinds of contributions.
This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.
Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
and has proved useful to kickoff discussions with diverse stakeholders with different or no understanding of foresight.
The identification of four principles for global foresight design and management, and the ways in which these have been dealt with in practice,
we conclude that online working tools offer major support for efficient and participatory management of global foresight.
view of foresight: integrated foresight management model, Foresight 5 (2)( 2003) 33 45.4 A. Alsan, M. A. Oner, Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model, Futures
36 (2004) 889 902.5 O. Saritas, M. A. Oner, Systemic analysis of UK foresight results:
joint application of integrated management model and roadmapping, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 27 65.6 O. Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight,(Ph d. thesis), Manchester
Institute of Innovation research, 2006.7 TFAMWP (Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group), Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:
Developing National Priorities for the Forest-Based Sector Technology platform, International Journal of Technology management 54 (4.)(2011.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008.11 T. Ko nno la, K. Haegeman, Embedding foresight in transnational research programming, Science and Public policy 39
reflections from the Finish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.14 T. Ko nno la, T
, Diversity in foresight: insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
glocalization/grobalization and something/nothing, Sociological Theory 21 (3)( 2003) 193 209.22 M. Weber, Foresight and adaptive planning as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making:
id=3982.23 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, Foresight's impact on policy-making:
Poster presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2011.29 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, Foresight within era nets:
and to ensure a better link between Foresight and its impact on decision-making processes. The paper discusses Adaptive foresight
and underlines that Foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process and get to the level of individual actors'strategies.
In parallel, a‘logicmodel'approach is used also to provide checklists of the foresight inputs and activities likely to lead to the attainment of both lower and higher level system goals,
She was in charge of different projects aiming at reinforcing the position of the JRC-IPTS as a centre for Foresight at European and international level.
Amongst the projects she was leading there were targeted activities supporting mutual learning on Foresight among practitioners
and users across European countries and advancing the application of Foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
and introduces the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) in this respect. IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in
continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.
This paper proposes a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes and discusses the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) 11 in this respect.
It is argued that IF could serve as an interactive, participatory and forwardloookin process towards the‘social shaping of technology'.
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
in the next section, the Innovation Foresight concept is introduced and contextualised. Thereupon, the methodological setup and results from two empirical studies in which current and future users were involved closely in the exploration,
Finally, Section 4 discusses a number of experiences and conclusions from the empirical studies in the light of the proposed shift towards more Innovation Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes. 2. Towards Innovation Foresight (IF?
CTA, for example, with its aim of broadening design and development processes and early interaction between the relevant technology and societal actors, can be considered an initial attempt at Innovation Foresight.
An integrated approach towards Innovation Foresight is thus called for. The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics.
These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty which result in failing innovations;
the concept of Innovation Foresight (IF) 11 has been introduced as an interactive, participatory and forward-looking way to engage in the‘social shaping of technology'.
'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design. It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,
and creative, generative methods. We now zoom in on two empirical studies in which current users have been involved closely in the exploration, imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences.
this paper has proposed a shift towards Innovation Foresight. IF aims to go beyond the dominant‘here and now'focus in traditional user research
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight and the Living Lab concept which was mentioned already in 11.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 71 87.5 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight
899.10 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight 7 (2005) 31 47.11 K. De Moor, O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight for living labs, in:
Proceedings of Yeditepe International research Conference on Foresight (Yircof 2009), Istanbul, Turkey, 2009.12 O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond, in:
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