'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Haegeman, K.,Scapolo, F.,Ricci, A.,Marinelli, E. and Sokolov, A. in press)‘ Quantitative and qualitative approaches in FTA:
amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
This indicates that FTA APPROACHES based on linear extrapolation or causal modelling do not suffice (Linstone 1999).
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
and to turn these into opportunities by embedding FTA in their decision-making processes. 3. 5 Reflections on the exercise Overall,
2012) consider three ideal-type models for FTA, namely:.individual projects or programmes of limited duration and with targeted objectives. dedicated units providing continuous input to their embedding
2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis',Science and Public policy, 39: 153 66. Weick, K. 1995) Sensemaking in Organizations.
For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
using FTA METHODS. One of the approaches is described in Klingner and Behlau (2008. Successful implementation of such processes achieves several goals:
FTA in this context supports Fraunhofer's strategic R&d planning. Hence, it needs to be oriented action
which led to three additional projects in mobility and security. 6. Discussion and lessons learnt 6. 1 FTA APPROACHES of other research
Therefore, the Fraunhofer experiment is unique among independent research institutions. 6. 2 Impact of the Fraunhofer future-oriented process The FTA PROCESS described in this paper produced dedicated research projects
and outlook Using global challenges as a starting point for an internal FTA PROCESS within the corporate strategic R&d planning was a new approach for Fraunhofer.
FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.
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