future

ART89.pdf

Global foresight: Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,

Examples range from the European commission through the Framework programmes and its Joint research Centre, the OECD through its International Futures Programme, UNIDO through its Technology foresight Initiative, the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Centre for Technology foresight, the UK Foresight

less attention has been paid to the theory and Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

an international FTA project addressing the future of intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS). Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing

how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 28 In the design phase is important to structure aspects such the interactions between people (e g. participants, stakeholders, policy and decision makers,

whereby future-oriented expectations are produced jointly, combined and assimilated through various inputs and critical reflection.

instead of less focused future-oriented statements. Salo et al. 13 agree when they claim that an effective communication process with all stakeholders involved,

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 29 of results. Conducting the investigation this way makes it possible to address multiple levels

and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,

Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed. Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.

T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations

6. Developing the selected snapshots highlighting how their main features interact within each possible state of the future by 2025.

and to allow partners to think freely without trying to connect these possible states of the future with the desired IMS2020 vision,

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 32 After the snapshots were developed within each of the four groups they were circulated to all project partners and IMS

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 33 1 3 years and to be concluded in 3 7 years;

Results are currently being used to develop further framework programme (FP) 7 calls and in shaping future RI calls from 2014.

This generated momentum for shaping globally the intelligent manufacturing industry of the future 27. At the same time, new schemes and frameworks to support manufacturing systems research are being developed.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 34 calls, as well as workshops with industry.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 35 The use of online tools was important to enable partners to collaborate across the project within dedicated spaces

T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 36 devoted to the joint selection of variables to be used

and future EU calls after 2014. At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision,

therefore critical for shaping future customised RI calls for project collaboration and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research

and innovation (RI) could encourage sustainable manufacturing. It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises.

when the use of such tools is an integral part of the design of the whole exercise a finding that deserves further research in order to advance the field of future studies.

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 37 Acknowledgements The views expressed are those of the author

C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Ko nno la, Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders

integrated foresight management model, Foresight 5 (2)( 2003) 33 45.4 A. Alsan, M. A. Oner, Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model, Futures

Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, Futures 36 (2004) 45 65.10 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R

new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011. 13 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:

insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004

C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 38

ART9.pdf

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc

The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,

the future sponsorship of FTAACTIVITIES (and certainly their wider diffusion and expansion) is likely to bemore difficult and places the whole activity under threat.

The last article in this Special issue entitled‘Devising Futures for Universities in a Multilevel Structure: a methodological experiment'by Havas, is a contribution to the Higher education theme.

However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(

ART90.pdf

Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,

(and even hyped) in the literature is a Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes

IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in which users and other stakeholders are involved systematically to detect future opportunities and risks.

This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.

the IF process calls for future-oriented, continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.

This paper discusses two empirical studies that closely involved users in the exploration, imagination and creation of future TV experiences.

Study 1 aimed to identify users'specific (future) needs and possible Lead User ideas concerning digital TV (DTV) in Flanders through an online survey (N=11.802 digital TV users.

which focused on‘Future TV experiences, 'consisted of a multi-method research approach in three phases,

that help to provide an understanding of users'daily practices and futures aspirations. It is argued that a better introduction of future anticipation in inclusive innovation processes could enhance the input of users in innovation

and contribute to the detection of potential user/societal needs and possible unexpected forms of use. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.009 good example in this respect. Although the principles underlying the open innovation concept have been subjected to critical analyses,

One approach that may be effective at enabling the desired inclusive knowledge creation is to use the future as a catalyst for precipitating the collective intelligence of users and stakeholders 10.

notions of the future and anticipation often tend to be introduced poorly or lacking completely. This paper proposes a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes

'IF is a basis for stimulating a future-oriented innovation dialogue that enables different types of users

Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research

Thereupon, the methodological setup and results from two empirical studies in which current and future users were involved closely in the exploration,

imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences are presented in Section 3. Study 1 focused on the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to interactive digital TV;

Study 2 investigated‘Future TV experiences'.'A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'imaginative potential.

CTA drew strongly on the inclusivity of broader social constituencies and interaction with current and anticipated future users in Research

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 40 Although in theory, such inclusive processes aim to strengthen the role and input of users into innovation,

In this paper we argue that this limitation is to an important extent due to the insufficient or even lacking introduction of the future and future anticipation as components into the user-driven knowledge creation process.

probable futures and to make a relevant and meaningful contribution. The point that we want to raise in this paper,

little attention is given to unexpected or unanticipated forms of use of a (future) product/technology,

despite the potential impact of unanticipated use on future success or failure (e g.,, in terms of user adoption.

Lead User methods for example, represent a specific category of methods that do include the future as a component

Although it is unknown in the present who the future users of a technology or product will be,

forecast studies allowing to develop anticipatory assumptions with regard to future user behaviour, future needs, expected profiles of adopters, etc.

the introduction of the future in inclusive processes aimed at enhancing users'input into the innovation process remains problematic.

and develop visions of the future, current or expected future users are involved rarely actively in this anticipatory process.

(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives

and other relevant stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process in view of discovering future opportunities (and risks),

and more specifically current and anticipated future users are consulted not only, but are engaged actively in the process and share their‘future'experiences and aspirations in an interactive and iterative way.

IF introduces an inclusive vision development process with longer-term perspective and a strong future component.

Such an inclusive approach requires participation and involvement of different stakeholders on equal terms, hereby empowering users as key stakeholders

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 41 IF aims to go beyond the‘here and now 'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design.

We now zoom in on two empirical studies in which current users have been involved closely in the exploration, imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences.

a‘Lead User'approach for digital TV Study 1 aims to identify users'specific (future) needs concerning interactive digital TV in Flanders.

namely the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to the (future) use of DTV. 3. 1. 1. Methodological approach An online survey was set up

and behaviour and to identify users'specific (future) needs concerning digital TV. A large group of 46.000 Flemish DTV-users as key stakeholders were invited to fill in the survey by email.

%For the identification of these future user needs, we adopted an approach based on the first steps of Lead User-market research 23,25 and inspired by the idea of‘crowdsourcing'26.

In crowdsourcing on the other hand, an unsolved problem or question in this case what are (future) needs concerning digital TV is submitted to a large‘crowd'of users, drawing on knowledge that is available in the crowd.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 42 survey was taken (end 2009) in percentage of Flemish digital TV-viewers.

A visual EPG that synchronises with other devices, ratings and recommendations of content and community-features is considered also a Lead User-idea with an estimated future potential of 1/3

First of all, user surveys are used traditionally rarely at the early, exploratory stages of the development process and with the purpose of detecting future needs or opportunities.

whereas In traditional market research, the involvement of current or future users is often still cross-sectional and not based on a continuous interaction 7. In this respect,

future TV experiences Study 2 was set up in collaboration with a‘Philips Consumer Lifestyle'group2 and explicitly focused on‘Future connected TV experiences'.

'Current and prospective users (i e.,, TV viewers) were involved actively. Television is one of the most widely adopted and domesticated media,

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 43 the TV AUDIENCE, this simplicity is however under pressure. As a result, it is crucial to reflect on current and future viewing practices

and on how the TV of the future should address these evolving practices in order to stay close to the users.

In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:

2030). ) 3. 2. 1. Methodological approach A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'creative and imaginative potential in the IF process.

and asked for their expectations concerning the future of TV and their vision on the future TV user and TV SET of the future.

2). Each of these types was divided further into a positive and negative profile, based on current viewing practices, positive or negative attitudes and behavioural intentions towards current/future viewing possibilities.

concrete representations of target users'that are used for conveying information about a (future) user population in product design and innovation processes 27.

imagine and create‘future TV experience'-scenarios. The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 44 thoughts, comments and ideas (see Fig. 1 on the right.

On the 7th and last day, the participants sent a postcard to the future describing their ideal future TV experience

and context. 3. 2. 2. Results 3. 2. 2. 1. Phase 1. The main aspects and trends mentioned by the experts in phase 1 in their vision on future TV experiences

and TV SET of the future viewer, included the increasing convergence between TV, PC and the internet, the shift from 3-dimensional television (3d TV) to holographic TV and 4-dimensional television (4d TV), in

which even more immersive TV experiences will be created by adding additional sensory effects to television viewing and the TV SET of the future.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 45 Fig. 2. Schematic overview of the developed positive and negative personas.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 46 in it, but considers herself as a non-expert.

and simplicity should still be key in the development of future TV experiences. This was the case for all 6 personas, both the positive and the negative personas.

For the internet and connected TV personas finally, the biggest difference that was found between the positive and negative persona was that the former is ready and eager to experience future TV now and that the latter emphasises the importance of gradual change

future TV should be multi-screen, flexible and mobile according to the participants. Especially for TV connected to the internet, this multi-screen aspect was found to be of crucial importance.

The third key aspect in our personas'expectations and visualisations of future TV experiences referred to the social character of the medium:

and co-experiences (as opposed to future TV a personalised and individual). This idea of shared TV was evaluated not as very innovative,

users as well as other relevant stakeholders were involved in an inclusive and future-oriented process, based on a combination of traditional and more creative methods.

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 47 stimulate users'imagination and to empower them to reflect on possible and preferable future developments in the context of TV experiences.

, through the identification of future innovation opportunities or threats and through the detection of explicit as well as more latent future needs.

However, in future anticipation and visioning as part of such trajectories, the actual role and contribution of users is limited often

and constrained as the introduction of the future as a component is often insufficient or even completely lacking in traditional user research.

Lead User methods form an exception in this respect as they involve users with clear and distinct future needs.

and stimulate those users that are traditionally not behind the steering wheel to voice their expectations, needs, visions with regards to possible, preferable and probable futures.

and needs with regard to future TV experiences, implying that it is insufficient to only rely on expert users.

and limitations to user involvement in the earliest innovation phases and the poor or even entirely lacking introduction of the future as component in traditional user innovation research,

It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred

Such a classification could be a first step towards an integrated framework comprising different ways to introduce the future

Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.009.

new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2010) 279 291.4 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 48 7 L. Haddon, E. Mante, B. Sapio, K.-H. Kommonen, L. Fortunati, A e. Kant

Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 49

ART91.pdf

The roles of fta in improving performance measurement systems to enable alignment between business strategy and operations: Insights from three practical cases Sidnei Vieira Marinho a,,

despite the awareness that both researchers and executives have that organisational performance is linked directly to an alignment between Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 A r T I C L E I N F O

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jo u rn al ho m epag e: ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures

and competencies needed in relation to the trends that ought to mould the future of the business.

The combination of SWOT and GBN stimulates joint reflections on the future in terms of scenarios i e. the way in which strengths and weaknesses, both internal (firm) and external environment, including value chain),

These actions S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 51 together represent the strategy translated into operational actions,

C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 52 into account the availability and facility to access information,

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 53 system followed the designed phases and steps.

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 54 attending the communities which depend on such social projects.

The analysis of strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis) stimulated an important reflection in terms of the future via the application of the Global Business Network scenarios.

when imagining and preparing for the future, it was possible to see that the institution was not able to shape a process to build a shared understanding of stakeholders'views as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes.

These are critical to enable it to become flexible S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 55 and adaptive,

and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail or where they see themselves both individually and collectively.

and (iii) a common vision to be pursued across the system based upon the mutual positioning of value chain actors in relation to the future.

and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail. Also, it considers where all actors see themselves both individually and collectively within these alternative futures.

However, such common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of value chain actors in relation to future needs 52.

It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions

C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 56 Foresight also supports the firm's and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision

and define where each one would like to position itself within a range of likely futures

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 57 intelligence systems, direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation, marketing, organisational change,

Such an application of the system in practice shall be subject of future work to be developed by the authors. 5. Conclusions The system proposed was developed based on perceived gaps in the process of implementing the BSC The guiding objective was to combine characteristics inherent to PMS, such as participation

33,58 60,67 Performance Prism 33 Independent variables (nonfinancial ones) are identified incorrectly as primary drivers of future stakeholder satisfaction 58 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 There is no criteria

) S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 58 Annex 2. Casual relationship diagram.

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 59 5 S v. Marinho, L. M. S. Campos, P m. Selig, Critical analysis

and Performance Measurements to Chart Your Company's Future, American Management Association, New york, 1993.22 U s. Bititci, A s. Carrie, L. Mcdevitt, Integrated performance measurement systems:

past, present and future, in: Performance Measurement Conference, Cambridge, 2000.31 S. Tonchia, Linking performance measurement system to strategic and organizational choices, International Journal of Business Performance 2 (2000) 15

new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning

2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future: Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018

49 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, E. Vilkkumaa, Facing the future:

lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 60 63 H. Akkermans, K. E. van Oorschot, Developing a balanced scorecard

Research and Action, Boston, MA, 17 19,july 2002), pp. 85 92.68 A. Fink, B. Marr, A. Siebe, J. P. Kuhle, The future scorecard:

S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 61

ART92.pdf

Toward networked foresight? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,

as firms look to advance their technology''6. Since Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jo u rn al ho m epag e: ww w. els evier. c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures

Since the 1940s, the way people and organizations have looked at the future has changed from a technology-oriented attempt to predict the future toward a more exploratory perspective that incorporates many different societal aspects (e g.

Subsequently, futures research focused on identifying possible and preferable futures instead of trying to predict the future 21.

and developments that are likely to impact the future of the focal firm and the preparation of adequate measures to react to the various possible futures 22.

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 63 was redefined as‘‘a set of organizational routines and processes by

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role. The goal is to identify

For analyzing the future orientation and openness of the three networks we applied the Cyclic Innovation Model as an analytical framework.

the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main

and information in the‘innovation arena'and (2) that every well-functioning innovation process should be based on one or more images of the future 47,48.

which links‘the'future to innovation processes and level 2, which structures the partners involved in the innovation network and links them in a cyclic way.

Level 1 of the CIM is illustrated in Fig. 1. This future-oriented part of the CIM consists of four components:

1. The image (s) of the future, which function as a kind of‘Leitmotiv'for all innovation-related activities.

It is fed by the organization's internal ambitions for the future and by an awareness of external developments that may influence the organization's future goals

and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership

links the other three components. The management is responsible for consistent interconnected and balanced links between the other components.

It also includes setting out an inspiring vision of the future, while ensuring that this future vision is aligned strategically with a sound process model that allows managing

and executing the innovation processes adequately and the actual transition to the envisioned image of the future.

image of the future, process model and transition path. For instance, the transition path aims at realizing the 2 Critics argue that the active involvement in day-to-day work creates bias in the participant-observers in that they may partly

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 65 once-set image of the future. At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted

just as the strategy might need to be updated. 3. 2. 2. Applying the CIM for analyzing the preferences on networking

If that is not the case the transition path might lead to a‘wrong'image of the future, i e.,

the connection between innovation and the future. For details see 48. P. van der Duin et al./

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 66 field and carries out various foresight activities organized in separate programs and projects.

but also architects, people from advertising and art, secondary school children and students to provide a‘‘fresh perception of an appropriate future water policy''49.4.1.1.

However, a mixed image emerged with regard to the presence and use of an image of the future regarding the innovation processes of WINN in the past.

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 67 to act as guards against defective outside political influences while also making sure that the internal components of the network were aligned. 4. 1. 5. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities inside Rijkswaterstaat

The future of WINN itself was addressed not within these activities (Table 3). 4. 2. Case 2:

Activity Short description Type 1. 1 Inspirational workshop Identified future‘themes'for inspiration and to structure innovation processes for WINN Singular activity 1. 2 Business modeling Addressed

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 68 innovation process, from futures research, topic identification and business field exploration to consortia building,

roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.

The future of the partners involved and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.

Activity Short description Type 2. 1 Future studies Continuously identify future trends in an industry based on Delphi

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 69 Innovation Agenda (SIA), reviewed and revised with support of the KICS once they were established.

and educate the CIOS of the future, 7 which is subsidized by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).(

Since then, proposals for future activities have to meet a set of predefined criteria and are evaluated

Several collaborative instruments were established to support the identification and selection of activities for the future of the network, e g.,

provides images of the future, identifies innovation opportunities and potential for commercialization, and creates cohesion within the ICT Labs about current trends.

and the partners are engaged in domains that will drive the future. The aim is explicitly to‘‘establish a common outlook on the future of ICT to create cohesion

and a strong community across nodes and partner organizations''56. The best-practice benchmarking ensures the implementation of state-of-the-art instruments

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 70 executive steering board and a chief executive officer (CEO), who leads a management team with 12 members.

Eventually, the assessment of the outcome (network performance versus original expectations) will determine the partners'future commitment.

trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 71 Given the doubtful existence of a clear vision at the beginning of the program the transition path was lacking direction.

the foresight activities were used to develop strategic guidance for the future in water management, to identify new business opportunities

being enthusiastic and very active does not necessarily promote (1) contemplation about the future, (2) structuring,

and analyzing thoughts about the future and (3) analyzing the possible impact of future developments. Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results

when it comes to conducting and supporting collaborative innovation among its partners, the image of the future,

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 72 provide frameworks for open innovation emerged in the last few years, e g.,

, Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS), the European Alliance for Innovation and the EIT KICS (case 3). Thus, the image of the future for EICT seems to be need in of an update. 8 The partner structure of EICT of a research institute, a university

and future orientation based on the CIM. 5. 2. 1. Networked foresight activities The partners use EICT's competences in foresight mainly on a project basis and for specific thematic topics;

adjusting the image of the future and the vision and strategy of EICT quarterly board meetings,

EICT's own foresight competences could complement these meetings. 4. The existing foresight activities could be utilized to capture external developments adequately to guide EICT prepare it for the future. 5. Foresight would benefit from additional network partners that add to the existing knowledge base.

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 73 5. 3. Case 3: EIT ICT Labs The EIT ICT Labs have an elaborate mission

and vision for the network based on the image of the future of an open network of partners that fosters research and business opportunities.

Fig. 4 visualizes the EIT ICT Labs in regard to its future orientation and openness. 5. 3. 1. Networked foresight activities In the EIT ICT Labs 10 foresight activities with varying roles

Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 2. 1 Future studies & (&) Open (organizations and end-users) 2. 2 Business field exploration

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,, the innovation radar, are used to provide the basis for the process model of the network especially

and guide the future of the network. 5. 4. Cross-case evaluation 5. 4. 1. Toward networked foresight within the three cases In Fig. 5 the classification of the foresight activities in terms scope

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.

and should be used to develop a suitable process model toward an envisioned future of an innovation network.

Second, foresight and especially networked foresight can also be used to guide the transition path toward the envisioned future.

shaping and modeling the future of the network itself, i e.,, in terms of the CIM especially the image (s) of the future, the vision and the process model of the network.

From the perspective of the network this is a coupled (outside-in and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:

Furthermore, the use of foresight within the networks could be increased (1) to address the future of the networks themselves

. Zook, Open-market innovation, Harvard Business Review 80 (2002) 80 89.12 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel, H. Chesbrough, The future of open innovation, R&d

a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips, On s-curves

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 77 33 E. H. Kessler, A k. Chakrabarti, Innovation speed: a conceptual model of context, antecedents,

DIME Conference Organizing for Networked Innovation, Milano, 2010.60 P. van der Duin, M. Sule, W. Bruggeman, Deltas for the future:

/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 78

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