Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010003-04 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 3 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
on being able to discern the possible shape of the future: what is likely to influence it,
and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment. The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
Score Comment Future orientation***Future orientation***Participation*(*Consultation of experts for certain parameters**Validation of modelling output in a workshop***Validation through wide consultation Participation**(Depends on size of community involved
by challenging policy-makers to look at uncertaaintie and unexpected futures, in order to deveelo more resilient policies towards sustainability.
using future mobile applications as a casestuudy The analysis is based on the results of the Reseaarc on Mobile Applications and Services project,
Futures (in press. Keenan, R and R Popper (eds. 2007. Guide to Research Infrastruccture Foresight.
In Future-Oriented Technology Analysiis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way.
this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.
This paper is reworked a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
seeking out alternattiv sources of information and challenging impliici assumptions about the future that underlie today's decisions (UK HSC).
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
In generral this means that the future horizon is divided up into a set of categories that serve as coordinaate (in parallel with the spatial coordinates used by radar
focusing on the societal needs of the future and Emerging s&t. NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005,
Finally, we are persuaded that horizon scanning gives us a tool to create a common understanding and shared awareness of a wide variety of future problems, threats and opportunities (PTOS),
and generally under-researched which might have a significant impact on our future way of living and
the aim was also to influence the framing of policies into a more future-oriented mode,
and foresight are aimed explicitly at developing resillien policies that are adaptive to changing and uncerrtai futures.
In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
to challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future. Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels,
and to envisage the future in a more systematic way. Identify new challenging issues for policy
Identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for exploiting potential opportunities). Identify possible inter-linkages (enhancers, inhibitoors multipliers) between future issues (from differren parts of the horizon) with a potentially major impact.
which for instance could be used for setting priorities for future investments but also for initiattin public debate. Development of the national horizon scans Data collection All three scans were developed in phases.
issues were collected from a variety of (future) literature and the internet and through consultation with experts (workshops, interviiew etc..
while the Delta Scan of the S&t developments was carried out by the Institute for the Future.
The primary data for the Danish scan were deliverre by the OECD International Futures Programme Unit with support from DASTI,
In the Dutch scan as well as in the UK scan, networks of future analysts were used to support the scan as a permanent soundiin board.
but also scientific discipllines The involvement of client departments and their own future analysis is considered to be mutualll advantageous:
such contacts have been encouragge by the formation of a network of future analysts (FAN club.
In this way, the future-oriented approach is disseminated through the whole of the government system, as well as the scientific communnit and society.
and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups. Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS
Issue (or PTO) selection is therefore based on likelihood and estimated impact on the future of our society.
quality of life, ecological quality (survival, health, longevity of (future) citizeens health of ecosystems; social dimension; economic financial dimension:
self-realization of (future) citizens (freedom of indiviidual and of religious and cultural expressioon) and stability of international relations (peaceful coexisttenc with the rest of the world.
and future thinking to inform the policies of (all) departments. It operatte under the government's chief scientific adviser.
and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.
and institutions that are influenced certainly by the future-oriented project work and the material provided by the scans.
In future, the way forward may be to link the broad national scan with more in depth departmental scans from other ministries
and evoking important questiion around the future than in providing clear-cut Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 17 answers (Medina Vasquez, 2006).
FUTURREG (Futures for Regional development: Report on futures tool, horizon scanning. Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation 2008. RESEARCH2015 A Basis for Prioritisation of strategic Reseaarch Available from<http://en. fi. dk/publications/publications-2008/research2015-a-basis-for-prioritisation-ofstrattegicres/research2015-net. pdf
UK government, 2006, Horizon scanning and Futures Team, Sciennc Economics and Statistics DG, 2006. Looking back at looking forwards, Next steps for Horizon scanning and Futurres DEFRA 2006.
Horizon scan Report 2007, Towards a Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda. COS. Available from<http://www. horizonscan. nl/uploads/File/COS BINNENWERK%20engels 06 (1). pdf,
All Our Futures: The challenges for local governance in 2015. Available from<http://www. communities. gov. uk/pub/326/Allourfuturestechni calannexandappendices id1165326. pdf>,last accessed 1 Octoobe 2008.
Assessing the future of futures studies in management. Futures, 40 (3), 237 246. Spring, L, R Crawhall, J Smith and K Andrews 2007.
Global Securiit Scan for Canadian Science Capabilities (2015 2020)- Report of Proceedings, Defence R&d Canada, Centre for Securrit Science.
The current and likely future dynamics of the creative content industries represent a major challeeng for the application of forward-looking methood to underpin
Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content
the EPIS project foressa the design and implementation of a combinatiio of methods to explore the future evolution of the creative content industries
and methodology used to envision the future of the European creative content sector, as well as the quality of the main results achieved.
a prospective study dealing with the future evolution of the creative content industtries She has worked also for many years in the field of electronic communications policy and regulation at Europeea level.
Among others, he has been involved in the Europeea projects FISTERA and EPIS, both dealing with the future of the information society.
In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
the picture that emerged was one of uncertainty, with two potentially dominant future situations. The first is characterised by growing opportuunitie for the sort of small,
Delphi survey We used the Delphi method to elicit views from a wide-ranging audience on current and future trends Box 1. The creative content sector on the move Figure 3 shows the various stakeholders involved and the technology trends
which they had to assess topics based on statements about the future. In a RT Delphi, the particiipant not only judge twice but they can change their opinion as often as they like
and Public policy February 2010 26 remain crucial for the future success of the creative content sector.
Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
a future in which negative effects of ICT-based media producctio and distribution (e g. spamming) have resullte in a widespread loss of popularity for the internet.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
which in turn meant that no consenssu on the future of the creative content industries could be achieved.
Key issues for the future success of the creative conteen industry Even though the scenarios reflect differrent often contradictory trends and uncertainties about the future of the creative content industry,
a number of important issues can be highlighted by looking across the scenarios. These issues may be technological,
They will be decisive for the future pathway of the creative conteen sector. It is thus important to understand those factors
(i e. envisioniin the future of a sector in disruption such as the creative content sector) with the need to derive conclussion for policy-making.
the methodological setup succeeded in generating forward-looking perspectives on the creatiiv content sector, building on a consolidated understtandin of how the sector works and likely future trends.
This is as much due to the inherent limitations of our abilities to look into the future and of the possibilities of what FTA can deliver as it is to the client's unrealistic expectations.
It is essential to accept that the future is opaque, uncertain and unpredicctable and that we must learn to handle uncertaiinty in particular in fast changing sectors like the creative content sector.
the practitionners while ensuring a plausible new picture of the future can be shaped which they themselves may not be willing to accept at the outset.
Although exploratory in nature, the latter reflect major differences of opinion among the stakeholders over the expected and desiire future of the sector.
which quality is expected to determine the future of several segments of the creative content sector.
On certain areas a consensus on their importtanc for the future was easy to reach
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:
The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35. Gordon, T J and A Pease 2006.
Futures, 38 (8), 908 924. Marcus, C 2005. Future of Creative industries: Implications for Research policy. Working Document EUR 21471.
Brussels: European commission. Mateos-García, J, A Geuna, A w E Steinmueller et al. 2008. The Future Evolution of the Creative Content Industries:
Three Discussion papers. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicatiion of the European communities (Scientific and Technical research series, EUR 23633 EN.
Futures, 36 (2), 201 218. Price waterhouse coopers 2006. Global Entertainment and Meddi Outlook: 2006 2010. Global Overview.
calof@telfer. uottawa. ca and jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
future fuels for APEC economies; animal health; bio-health innovattio and stewardship, and future professional readiness for physicians and veterinarians.
He maintains active connecttion with foresight organizations in Europe, Asia, the US and Brazil. Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
technology and innovation priorities Creating a language and body of practice for thinking about the future A source of inspiration for policy system actors More comprehensive,
and quality of social interactions Aid and help elaborate discussions of the future Facilitate thinking out of the box, challenge mindsets Creation of new networks and clusters of expertise,
repositioning of old ones Establishment of communications structures between innovation actors Support the empowerment of (innovation and futures) systems actors Contribute towards the development of actor identities Foresight provides many opportunities for enhanced
so as to gain agility and strengthen preparedness Learning effects impacts Supports system actors to create their own futures Creates a shared vision amongst diverse actors Gain insights into complex interactions
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
and a central innovation and futures committee of the parliameen chaired by the prime minister. Another difference was in the area of participants.
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
their orientation to the importance of considering diverse futures and the urgency and complexity of problems facing the national policy community.
future foresight assesssment may wish to expand the sample base in an attempt to both validate the critical success factors
Develoopin futures for agriculture in The netherlands: a systematti exploration of the strategic value of foresight.
medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career.
Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d
and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
Future measures could include a preventive vaccine and new approaches to control the vector. Surveillance and detection (S&d) is the stage aftte the emergence of EID.
Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
Future drugs could potentially be even more effective and cheaper. Prevention of spread (Pos. Pos include proceduure to limit the transmission of the parasite,
Future decisions regarding interventions should use all available information about the disease and possiibl interventions, together with current data from sensors and assays, health clinics, hospitals,
The scope and focus were developed further into the context of the future by scenario planning, in
Future Fuel Technollogy Summary Report of an APEC-wide Foresight study. Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight.
Shaping the Future of European Societies. Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.
which focused on future mobile applications in a living lab setting, we illustrate how the two challenges can be tackled.
users can for example generate unique and valuable ideas for future products (Kristensson et al. 2004). ) User-driven innovation should
A user-oriented assessment of (future) wireless applicattion in cities was conducted. Six IBBT research groups collaborated on this project and
In the first stage (opportunity identification), possibbl (future) applications and trends in consumer behavviou were explored.
and knowledge in order to identify current and future mobile applications that might not only make a significant difference to consummers everyday lives,
but also to overcome users'limited capacity to imagine future technological opportunities. First extensive desk research was conducted
Secondly, in order to generate some new (and even wild) ideas for future mobile city services, users were involved in two focus groups.
and to imagine future needs and applications. Users oftte keep referring to familiar technologies such as multimedia messaging services, phone calls etc.
and sounded out for their interest in Table 2. Final list of 80 (future) mobile applications Finding people with same interests Note taking Reader Mobile payment Traffic jam
Empirical findings from the interdisciplinary ROMAS project on future mobile applications were presented in this paper in order to illustrate how both challenges can be tackled.
the establishment of real user-driven living labs might provide a more accuraat insight into users'current and future needs.
The future of innovation research. In The Internatiiona Handbook on Innovation, L V Shavinina (ed.),pp 1094 1100.
Current and future societal challenges as well as their combination emerge from such transformations and call for appropriate forms of FTA to support
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
and the mutual positioning of innovattio system actors in relation to the future. At the same time, FTA can support
M. Boden et al. are also internal drivers for the emergence of novel forms of future intelligence
and human sciences, could play in addressing future global grand challenges. Ahlqvist Valovirta and Loikkanen describe the developmmen of a new policy instrument, innovation policy roadmapping,
They draw on the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
References Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,
Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.
It represents a merger of future methods with those of strategic management. It is defined by Habegger (2010) as a deliberate attempt to broaden the‘boundaries of perception
which the future could unfold. Strategic foresight exercises can be developed by means of different approaches, dealing with aspects that might include the following:
strategic foresight exercises (future studies; strategic evaluation of large programs and projects; information and knowledge diffusion. It is considdere to be an interface organization in the ST&I environmment having responsibility for articulating the views of the government, private sector and academia,
and a shared vision on future possibilities are all intangibles which need to be pursued. Their value exceeds
On the other hand, as the future is unpredictable, the notion that prevails is that studies of the future are not very effective.
Finally, social engagement means a change in the pattern of behavior by the citizens, much more participative and conscious of their rights.
there is the issue of the unpredictability of the future it is neither possible nor feasible to say how the future will be (De Geus 2002.
However, attempting to understand how the future may unfold and dealing with the notion of‘possible futures'(Jouvenel 1967),
and constituute a differential for organizations and countries looking forward to shaping their own future
In this sense, shaping the future from the perception of present opportunities is, broadly speaking, known as foresight.
since the choices made today are decisive for shaping the future. The participation of different stakeholders in the process of identifying possible futures creates a more democratic decision-making
looking forward to visions of the future and to what must be done to transform those visions into reality,
which needs further knowledge generation and interpretation of trends, perspectives and future possibilities. Furthermore, it is important to assemble possible futures in the same way that a puzzle is assembled
and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc. In the last three years, CGEE has conducted some relevant national strategic foresight exercises,
as well as the group dynamics of such a management team, may have prominent influence on determining how such competitive force will approach the possible opportunities, uncertainties and threats of the future business environment.
This approach considers that many forms of analysing the future of ST&I coexist and can be mobilized, individualll or in combination with others,
process which leads to a more complete understanding of the forces shaping the future and
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
thinking, debating and shaping the future. The diversity of communication channels and the need for effective coordination between these three different levels emphasizes the importance of setting up a well-structured governance body for the whole exercise.
to achieve high levels of common understanding about future possibilities and impacts associated with the theme of the main exercise.
‘Our future is now'.'This message must be interpreted as a call to explore possible futures and to adapt the agency to face potential future developmennts and,
and analysis of robustness Final report and dissemination of results Water resources Establishment of ST&I priority agenda aimed at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six predefined themes Quality
This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in agricultural and health sectors Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies;
future of plant breeding and plant breeder profile; and trends in intellecctua property rights (IPR) Mapping S&t national capacity according to data available in CNPQ/Lattes databases and Innovation Portal Expert panels to debate the following themes:
future of plant breeding and future breeder profile; and IPR as applied to biotechnology development Validation of results in workshoops final report
and disseminnatio of results Nanotechnology Mapping current situation and future trends in S&t in Brazil and in a number of selected nations,
FINEP's strategic management plan was developed in 17 months, in an intense and challenging process of looking into the future of the agency and its role in the national ST&I system.
The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,
on one hand, balanced the knowledge related to the present and a number of relevant future possibilities, and, on the other hand, compared the internal and external views about the agency,
which could impact its present and future. There were three relevant elements over which FINEP had partial or no control at all:
the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
and of the identification of drivers for future events promoting environmental changes, and alterations in the trajectories of relevant phenommena defined by national and international studies,
which emerged regarding the future, and create a fuzzier vision than scenario building permits. If we look at the past,
and the keywords indicattiv of the future-bearing facts are shown, although the complete timeline included other variables).
The views of these players were importaan elements in broadening the vision for the future of FINEP.
The final workshop,‘FINEP of the future',provided a forum for further discussions between employees and stakeholders, resulting in the construction of the key elements of the proposed plan:.
which considered future trends in ST&I and their possible long-term impacts on the agency. This was created due to FINEP's need to promote changes in its organizational and management processes,
techniques and tools is one of the characteristics of future studies, as has been highligghte by Porter et al.
The preoccupations of FINEP's staff and their suggestions about the future of the agency needed to be heard
when foresight exerccise and innovation strategies are applied to new future possibilities in academia. Some of the intangible gains must be highlighted
a case study in learning from the future',paper presented at International Conference Probing the Future:
Planning for the Unpredictable Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press. Eriksson, E. A. and Weber, K. M. 2008)‘ Adaptive foresight:
World Future Society. Godet, M. 2001) Creating Futures Scenario planning as a Strategic management Tool. Washington: Economica.
Habegger, B. 2010)‘ Strategic foresight in public policy: reviewiin the experiences of the UK, Singapore and The netherlands',Futures, 42:49 58.
Hames, R. D. 2010)‘ New windows into new worlds: The case for integral foresight',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar:
the Journal of Future Studies, 1: 5 9. Irwin, A. 2004)‘ Expertise and experience in the governance of science:
Slaughter, R. A. 1999) Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View. Sydney: Prospect Media.
supporting economic and social development (zhicheng fazhan), leading the future (yinling weilai). Priorities expreesse in the MLP include‘strategic priorities'(zhanlue Research priority setting in China. 261 zhongdian),
The 863 Program serves the goal of‘leading to the future'by supporting the development of frontier technologies.
Furthermore, the increasing research investments are expected to provide the foundattio for future economic growth, to enable the restructuring of industry from low-tech to high-tech,
Science, technology and China's politiica future: a framework for analysis'.In: Simon, D. and Goldman, M. eds) Science and Technology in Post-Mao China.
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