Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology.
The article presents the background, methodology and results of technology barometer, discusses its impacts on national discussion,
albeit the most important data is related to outcomes and impacts of inputs, like embedding of ICT into private
which have an impact on research and on societal development in general. The third part examines innovative societies,
and related indicators are the level of investment, entrepreneurial activity and the impact of technology development on the quality of life.
the possible impacts of results of barometer on government policy-making are rather indirect than direct ones.
Section 4. 1 draws conclusions of the experiences and observable impacts of technology barometer as an instrument supporting innovation policy-making
and have an impact on strategic policy-making all the way up to the highest levels in the decision-making processes.
One new approach to be integrated in the barometer structure in the future can be oriented the future concept of impact assessment
This approach seeks to combine evaluative ex-ante impact assessment risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence.
and impacts of globalization on enterprise R&d, innovation systems and innovation policies. He holds A m. Sc. in economics from Helsinki University.
The process had impacts along the six functions of Foresight for policy-making that recently emerged in the Foresight debate (informing policy,
and informal talks to arrive at an impression of the importance and potential impact of the huge number of topics under consideration.
Therefore, this paper focuses on expected impacts and the conceptual design. We analyse the expected impacts along the five functions of Foresight for policy-making that recently emerged in the Foresight debate 1
18.4. Expected output and impact of the process What are expected the outputs and impacts of the BMBF Foresight process?
and how does expected the impact relate to these conceptual developments? Direct outputs in the sense of deliverables were three reports to BMBF as well as a scientific report at the end of the whole process.
and there are many more impacts and outputs in-between. One impact is by informing BMBF about things to come.
The interesting objective here is to achieve an overview in more detail all the departments (Fachreferate) are informed even better in their specific areas.
In these cases, the expected impact of the process will be an addition to the research agenda,
Another impact is expected in the first definition of new strategic partnerships. Strategic partnerships (objective no. 3) are defined very broadly
Therefore, every foresight exercise has an impact on the system the foresight is performed in, in this case the BMBF and the policy as well as the innovation system.
In the BMBF Foresight process, an impact is expected on the interdisciplinary or interdepartmental collaboration concerning new
But it is definitely too early in the process to exhaustively evaluate the impacts according to these five dimensions.
a particular challenge is to ensure impact beyond the general elections: in 2009, general elections will be held in Germany.
there is already an impact on some of the ministerial departments. Nevertheless, the question remains, how this kind of impact can be demonstrated, traced and measured.
References 1 Forlearn, http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/1 why-foresight/functions. htm, access:
Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050
less attention has been paid to studying the use, impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making. This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature
Their use and impacts in the realm of public policy is treated, however, often perfunctorily. Environmental policy-making is a good example.
a systematic analysis of its use, impacts and effectiveness in environmental policy-making is still missing. This article aims to contribute to this discussion through a review of
Which impacts can be observed? 2. Which lessons can be drawn from current practices? How can those in charge of setting up a scenario planning exercise in public policy effectively proceed?
and weaknesses of several different exercises and assessments of the impacts scenario planning approaches can have on decision-making processes Fig. 1. Forms of scenario-based decision support. 1200 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting
when using scenario planning. 3. Synthesizing the available evaluative scenario literature 3. 1. Types of evaluative scenario studies The literature attempting to assess the impacts of scenarios employs different types of evaluative methods.
some reporting specific laboratory tests of the impact on decisions and some referring to observations of decision processes within organisations 19 21.
since impacts might take a long time to become evident or are difficult to single out from the complexity of influence factors. 3. 2. Impacts of scenario planning The few studies that attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of scenarios find them useful 29,30.
We only identified one empirical study that concretely assesses the effects of scenario use on organisational performance:
and could have a decisive impact on the topic at hand) and plot them on two axes to structure the subsequent development of four diverging scenario stories.
The main impacts of scenarios often result more from the process of developing them rather than from any published product describing the scenarios that were created.
Workshop participants also acknowledged the general difficulties of evaluating impacts of scenario planning. However, there was a common agreement among workshop participants that the potential of scenario planning is currently underutilized in dayttoday policy-making.
The European commission's requirements for extended regulatory impact assessment provide for an example. Here different ex-ante evaluations procedures have been integrated into one regulatory policy appraisal approach to improve the quality of regulation,
when it comes to understanding the impacts of scenario planning on overall organisational performance. The literature does not report too many differences between public and private sector applications.
Having an impact on the design and choice of policies remains a litmus test for the relevance of scenario planning.
It is not remarkable to diagnose a limited impact on political decision-making when the governance conditions for scenario planning are developed not rightfully.
Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;
and process of scenario creation affects their impacts. If and how probabilistic information should be used with scenario planning in public policy would be another concern.
In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.
ethical and social impacts of nanosciences,-technologies, and-artifacts. The paper suggests that Inclusive foresight, reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes.
The future of nanotechnologies and their impacts on society require widespread participation in elucidating their acceptability in society.
but that this landscape is shaped actively in response to anticipations on development and impact of the novelties.
and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
There was a widely recognised uncertainty about the potential impacts and risks, whilst in the meantime proposals for regulation were being formulated
and impact on unforeseen or sub-optimal trajectories of socio-technical developments. This reflexivity allows for a trying out of different possible paths,
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Impacts and implications of futureorieente technology analysis for policy and decision making Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.
Also that a more formal use of foresight elements could improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.
and immediate impacts of a recently completed two-year national technology foresight exercise conducted in Luxembourg. The paper covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span,
Weber et al. discusses the trade-offs between policy impacts of FTA with the experience gained from the innovation policy foresight
The paper gives a comprehensive review of the foresight and the assessment of its impacts on policy.
10.1080/09537320903262272 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014 916 Editorial authors conclude that the short-term success of the policy impact was at the expense of mediumtt long-term impact
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ian Miles Note 1. Reflecting the 2008 FTA Conference emphasis on impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making
We also argue that a more formal use of foresight elements might improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.
Foresight and similar future-oriented technology analysis methodds such as trend extrapolation, scenarios, Delphi analysis, focus groups, cross-impact analyses and roadmapping, can be found in traditional business-school
but quite a few also included thoughts on education and on the potential industrial and societal Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 925 impacts of the suggested research.
but implementation and impact must be measured in other ways. Second, as illustrated in our case studies,
assessing rationale, process and impact. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73: 761 77. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 932 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup Gibbons, M.,C. Limoges, H. Nowotny, S. Schwartzman, P. Scott,
bmanchester Institute of Innovation research (PREST), University of Manchester, M13 9pl, UK This paper sets out to review the conduct and immediate impacts of a two-year national technollog foresight exercise
Section 6 considers the impacts of the foresight exercise, while a final section draws some summary conclusions and highlights lessons for future foresight practice. 2. STI Policy in Luxembourg Before the 1980s,
to manage expectations of (policy) impacts; to identify and mobilise champions to drive the process forward
A word on impacts of foresight: first, there may be impacts from the process alone, which means they can conceivably appear before an exercise produces its findings;
second, distinction needs to be made between foresight outputs and impacts and it should be acknowledged that there is rarely a direct cause effect link between the two;
third, just as impacts might appear before the generation of final results, they also often appear a long time after the exercise has been completed
and the questionable ownership by the relevant stakeholders. 6. 2. Impact on FNR One of the main objectives of the Foresight was to inform new FNR programmes
developing a new clearly defined strategy in order to sharpen its impact on the Luxembourg research landscape.
thus familiarising the wider public with the stakeholders as well as with the role of science in a modern society. 6. 3. Impacts on the research community As mentioned in the previous section,
and technology priority setting in a small country 947 6. 4. Impacts on the private sector It is unclear
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthias Weber a, Klaus Kubeczko a, Alexander Kaufmann a & Barbara Grunewald a a Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight
K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
8 november 2009,953 969 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthiasweber*,Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann and Barbara Grunewald Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight and Policy development, Vienna
This process undoubtedly had a major impact on policy; in fact, several of the recommendations of the process were translated immediately into policy decisions,
a more critical and systematic assessment of the process shows that the apparent short-term success of the process seems to come at the cost of limited medium-to long-term impact, associated with a low degree of novelty and the avoidance of controversy.
The impact assessment is based on a framework that focuses on three key functions of foresight in relation to policy making:
only the short-term impact assessment can rely on empirical observations, but there are also several indications of likely shortcomings with respect to the medium-and long-term impacts.
Moreover, evidence can be given of process mechanisms that have been conducive to the generation of rather conservative outcomes.
After introducing the impact assessment framework and the general process design, objectives and results of the Viennese innovation policy foresight and strategy process and the different impact dimensions will be analysed
and assessed for different time horizons. The reasons for success in terms of shortteer policy impacts will be highlighted
but also the factors that seem to hamper mediumaan long-term impacts from arising. Finally, some generic lessons learned from the Viennese experience will be discussed.
Keywords: foresight; strategy process; innovation policy; policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
The aim was to develop, in a participatory process, a comprehensive strategic framework as well as concrete proposals for*Corresponding author.
This experience looks very much like a successful foresight process in terms of the impact it had and still has on policy and decision making,
at least as far as short-term impacts are concerned. However, in this paper, we would like to take a more systematic look at the impacts the process already has had
and is still likely to have in the future. For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.
The foresight experience of the City of Vienna will be discussed against this framework. First, we introduce the impact assessment framework (Section 2). Then the main features of the process design (Section 3)
and the objectives and results of the process (Section 4) will be described, including a brief overview of the state of their implementation.
Subsequently (Section 5), the impacts will be discussed along the lines of the impact assessment framework. Obviously, only the immediate and some of the intermediate impacts can be discussed on empiricca grounds,
given the fact that the process ended only in 2007. However other medium-and longer-term issues can be discussed on the grounds of the process design
and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making
However, the growing complexity of innovation processes is recognised also by stressing the bottom up Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 955 component of networking
but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
it is now possible to summarise the potential policy impacts of foresight by drawing first of all on the three main functions of foresight in relation to policy-making processes,
at which an impact occurs3 (Table 1). This framework will be taken as the background against which the experiences and impacts of the innovation policy foresight of the City of Vienna will be assessed,
but let us now turn first to the process itself. 3. Process design and implementation Vienna is the key centre for science and research in Austria as well as in the wider central European area to
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 957 Table 1. A Framework to classify the impacts of foresight activities.
Function Time lag Targeted and/or unintended impact Informing Immediate Increased recognition of a topic area Awareness of science,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 961 4. Objectives,
between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 963 life sciences, information technologies and the creative industries) will be promoted actively. A first call in this new area was launched in the first half of 2008, focusing on Arts&sciences.
and it is the firm intention to maintain the momentum of the participatory process by consolidating some of the communication channels that had been established in the context of the strategy process. 5. Impacts of the process
Although only the short-term (and some first medium-term) impacts can be discussed on empirical grounds,
the experience of the process lends itself also to some more speculative observations regarding the medium-to long-term impacts of the foresight process. 5. 1. Immediate,
short-term impacts The short-term impacts of the foresight process look quite impressive. In terms of its informing function, it certainly contributed to giving research and innovation more prominence and visibility in the context of urban policy.
and the impact of the foresight process in making these options real. Overall it is justified certainly to assess the impacts of the process positively in the short term. 5. 2. Intermediate,
medium-term impacts While it may be too early to assess the sustainability of the medium-term impacts that have become apparent 18 months after the end of the process,
the innovation policy strategy has certainly become a point of reference for many new policy initiatives. Reference is made regularly to the strategy to lend legitimacy to new initiatives and document their compatibility.
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 965 boundary-crossing initiatives are difficult to realise.
as well as between local government and other research and innovation actors. 5. 3. Ultimate, long-term impacts Integrating suitable new actors in the community dealing with research and innovation is one of the key long-term impacts expected from foresight exercises.
‘Wien denkt Zukunft'promises to have limited a impact only, and it is likely to remain rather limited.
Giving an assessment of longer-term impacts is difficult after just a year since the completion of the process.
and strategy process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'had a number of clearly identifiable impacts on policy agendas and initiatives.
and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,
and strategy process had a quite significant impact on guiding the future research and innovation policy in Vienna, but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable
and issues only rather than aiming at solutions. 3. See the study on methods and dimensions of impact assessment by Rhomberg, Steindl,
The targeted and unforeseen impacts on innovation policy: the eforesee Malta case study. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 2, no. 1: 84 103.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 969 Smits, R,
the future visions were redirected'to being used by the young people themselves, arguably with less political and operative impact.
Publications are weighted according to disciplinary journal impact criteria. Journal Citation Reports provide the basis for calculating the merits of individual and unit outputs.
and perceived technological impacts can further support TA activities. In sum, tech mining offers partial,
with the aim of enhancing the impacts of public R&i funding and facilitating the formation of larger research units.
and separate analysis of its significance and impacts (why is this driving force relevant to R&i policy and R&i activities?.
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
assessing rational, process and impact. Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77. Havas, A. 2003.
and emphasis was placed on the delivery of concrete and valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES.
but crossed this with an interest in the evaluation of impacts and in the use of FTA in two domains, business and higher education 9, 10.
The 2008 FTA Conference continued the focus on the‘‘impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.
Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
Saritas and Smith invited attendees to answer a number of questions about shaping forces, sources of change and their impacts, particularly in terms of new challenges and opportunities.
The conference will seek to understand further how far the institutionalisation (i e. embeddedness) of FTA supports both the achievement of measurable impacts and the strengthening of interaction s between research, higher education and innovation.
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.
or topic will have widespread impact (see Fig. 3). The second part of the meeting consists of identifying the topics
and bspeculativeq simply as a means of providing a perspective on a time frame for projected impacts.
but has limited its impact by internal resistance 26.4. Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent
status and impact of international future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Impacts and implications on policy-making§T. Ko nno la A f. Scapolo b, 1, P. Desruelle c, 2, R. Mud, 3 a Impetu Solutions
and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
for instance, mean that it has not been easy to evaluate the impacts of the foresight project (for instance,
in order to clarify (i) different roles of foresight in the innovation system and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy and societal developments.
of which results are discussed in view of impacts on policy-making. Section 4 provides some conclusions and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
it is beneficial to identify different types of foresight activities. The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
The first dimension addresses the type of main outcomes of the foresight project referring to its different kinds of impacts on the policy and society at large.
informative vs. instrumental outcomes Foresight outcomes consist of outputs, results and impacts of the project. Outputs refer to the products and services, tangibles and intangibles.
and impacts refer to consequences affecting beneficiaries during and after the project. For the purposes of the paper we consider instrumental and informative outcomes that are defined as follows:
Fixed Strategic environmental scan based on experts'view was used assess probability and impacts of projected threats.
Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental Sustainabilityh 22 Informative Explore how ICTS will influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
Diverse Description of a large degree of uncertainty of impact of ICTS on the environment. The scenarios developed during the project accommodated a diverse range of views
Consensual The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''has analysed the impacts of 19 megatrends & issues,
Subsequently, we discuss the impacts of the selected projects on policy in the four quadrants,
but direct impacts to policy-making have not been recorded. In the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight the major challenge was to create shared understandings on future hydrogen-based energy systems between different stakeholder groups representing five different countries.
In terms of indirect impact the‘‘Technology Trajectory''concept developed by FISTERA was used by industry and academia as a‘‘thinking tool''.
but it could also have wider impacts in society and be used to stimulate a wider discussion among stakeholders. 3. 4. Agora foresight (diverse perspectives
the European project‘‘Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental sustainability''aimed to explore (qualitatively) and to assess (quantitatively) the ways in which ICTS would influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
) The findings of the project showed that a large degree of uncertainty existed on impact of ICTS on the environment,
and that‘‘rebound effects''could lead to opposite impacts to that desired (e g . if transportation becomes cheaper and faster thanks to ICTS,
Hence, it was planned not to have direct impacts to decision-making. However, the participants from different sectors of the society benefited from the project.
Our analysis supports the thesis that different classes of foresight projects have respective different types of impacts on policy and society.
Tracing the impacts of foresight is often very difficult. In many cases, policy-makers do not refer to the sources used
Projects with the focus on instrumental outcomes have often important informative impacts, including indirect or unexpected impacts.
Foresight influences all participants in the process as well as their networks. Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase.
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
impacts and implications for policy and decision making, in: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at:
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