we are led typically to think of the‘‘obvious catastrophes''and more or less wild cards mass epidemics, asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, accelerating climate change, and the like.
and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).
and trend impact analysis apply here. Roughly more of Horton's subtask (iv. Transformation: examination of what the relationships would be between the present
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
The later discussion intends to enable the FTA COMMUNITY to reflect on how FTA ACTIVITIES can support the move towards more democratic societies and the potential impacts of FTA in governance.
Technology assessment (TA) has diverged into environmental impact analysis (EIA), strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) andconstructive TAWHILE otherprocesses include energy analysis (firstdevelopedbysoddy) andlife cycle analysis (LCA).
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
prioritise and address the social issues that matter most or the ones on which it can make the biggest impact. 5. 1. Research on corporate social responsibility The business case for CSR can be divided into theoretical and empirical categories 30
measuring the impact or effect of sustainability on the reporting organisation. The indicators have emerged from the combination of the GRI
which integrates value chain social impacts and investments in competitive context; it is developed the means by a firm to build a proper dialogue with stakeholders
Generic social impacts Value chain social impacts Social dimensions of competitive context Good citizenship Mitigate harm from value chain activities Strategic philanthropy5 that leverages capabilities
Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
and other stakeholders taking into consideration social impacts and social dimensions of its value chain in a competitive context as well as its relationships with employees, customers, governments and society at large.
the social impacts of all firm unit's activities in each location where it operates.
however, is to understand how FTA can support companies in anticipating impacts which are recognised not yet well
or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?
and also they can be adapted both by and/or strongly impact stakeholders, sometimes rapidly. Driver of change examples Climate policies and resource practices;
Major S&t developments and their societal impacts; Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
or those having both great uncertainty and potentially high impact. These are structured then into a matrix of 4 cells (2 drivers with high and low situations for each)
Solar flare, asteroid impacts, discovery of an alien; Autonomous computers; The attacks of September 11, 2001, which created significant shocks to the global security, airport screening and intelligence systems and practices;
so but if they do their impact is very high. These situations tend to alter the fundamentals,
and potential for impact might be considered‘Wildcards'.'He defines wild cards as‘Low Probability, High Impact events that, were they to occur,
would severely impact the human condition'.'Steinmueller 8 also has an excellent overview of wild cards in the 2008 RAHS Booklet on Foresight:
tool called a‘‘Reference Impact Grid''(RIG) which helps strategists and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system
practicing medicine and computation-making calculations, with pervasive societal impacts. The definition suggested by the authors of the current paper is as follows:
‘‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
1. Impact: rating of the trends, drivers, discontinuities as low, medium or high; 2. Likelihood:
Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.
Impact assessment. Overall, the respondents considered the impacts of the trends they identified high. Over 70%of the trends identified by the participants have high impact on Society and Culture;
Science and Technology; Energy; Ecology and Economy; and Geopolitics and Security (STEEP. Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of the trends were considered to be medium to high probability of occurrence.
Impact assessment. The majority of the respondents around the globe considered that more than 75%the trends will have high impact on the STEEP systems.
Impact assessment. Almost all respondents from different Foresight affiliations stated that over 70%of the trends identified will have high impact on the STEEP systems.
Impact assessment. Almost all the survey respondents considered that the drivers will have medium to high impact on the STEEP systems with the large majority of the experienced respondents (73%)considered high impact.
Likelihood assessment. Similarly a large number of respondents considered the likelihood of occurrence high for the drivers identified,
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment. There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact
and the remaining 35%will have medium impact on the STEEP systems. The figures were 75%high and 25%for medium for the Australasian respondents.
Impact assessment. Similar to the patterns observed regarding trends no significant differences were encountered regarding the impact assessment based on Foresight affiliation.
The majority of respondents (around 68%)consider that the drivers will have high impact on the STEEP systems,
whereas the rest expect medium level of impact. Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.
, interrestrial visitors, alliance, eco-collapse, biotech Increased impact of converging technologies on social life Natural language codifications becomes available allowing people communicate globally New s&t paradigms for knowledge society
%Impact assessment. The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.
Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The likelihood of occurrence for about 50%of the discontinuities identified was considered to be medium.
Impact assessment. The impacts of the discontinuities identified were considered to be high by most of the respondents around the globe.
The figure went as high as 75%among the North american respondents. Likelihood and time horizon assessment.
Impact assessment. Around 70%of all respondents from various Foresight affiliations that assessed discontinuities expect high impact.
The rest of the respondents stated medium impact. Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Regarding the likelihood of occurrence of discontinuities, the responses from Academia,
NGOS and Students were identical, where about 52%of the respondents suggested medium level of likelihood. 50%of the respondents from Government and Business stated high likelihood of occurrence.
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House Publishing, New york, 2007.11 P. van Notten, A m. Sleegersb, M. van Asselt, The future shocks:
with the recognition that demonstrating impact is probably the greatest hurdle to the wider acceptance and use of FTA.
and are ready to take notice it seems to have a greater impact. If it is sponsored by an organisation that is out of favour then regardless of the quality of the foresight work there may be little impact.
As in so many other areas, the impact of a particular finding may occur long after the project is completed,
and not uncommonly in unexpected applications. Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
focussed on measuring impact, and normative evaluation, which ismore concernedwith howto improve impact. While bettermetrics are obviously useful,
and should be pursued, there is a case that at this stage of the evolution of FTA,
the greater emphasis should be on improving the processes that influence impact. 3. The contribution of the FTA Conference A particular feature of the FTA Conference series is that it‘‘acts as a magnet to bring people interested in FTA together
and had a special emphasis on the delivery of policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES on policy and decision-making processes.
A clear demonstration of high-impact FTA studies such as the UK coastal flooding 10 and obesity reports 11,
and capacity building towards a much greater emphasis on achieving highly visible and well documented impact.
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
to analyze and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical laws, contributing to the modernization of current legislative processes,
but also various impacts outside the transportation sector. Not least because of this complexity, the effects of policy interventions in the transport sector are not entirely predictable,
The question then is how to provide policy making with the best available knowledge about the impacts of interventions (that achieve the intended goals
and the nature of its impact, are understood well Related concept Great uncertainty Uncertainty Riska Strategies Build awareness about reasons for fundamental limits to knowledge Attempt to anticipate,
identify and reduce the impact of‘‘surprises''Build awareness for limits to identify causal relationships Reduce the role of a potentially hazardous development
as a quantitative characterization of adverse effects in terms of the probability of its occurrence and the level of its impacts VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 285 nodes that are interlinked.
The other examples are environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA. Both instruments are related to the assessment of the environmental consequences of an activity.
In preparation for the action plan, an ex ante impact assessment was conducted to examine the options for action regarding ITS
The impact assessment combined structurally open and structurally closed methods in a careful and transparent manner. 5. Conclusions Policy interventions in the transport sector have to consider risks and uncertainties,
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
''Environmental Impact assessment Review, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 650-66. Renn, O. 2008), Risk governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World, Earthscan, London.
He serves as Deputy Head of the Department of Innovation processes and Impacts of Technology at ITAS.
and that tiny, often trivial actions can have huge, irreversible, impacts. 5. Non-equilibrium. Complex systems are not at equilibrium
trivial actions can have huge, irreversible impacts. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 297 B Enable practitioners to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level
and that tiny, trivial actions can have huge, irreversible impacts. They must also recognise that even the most basic rules
a cross-impact analysis to see the possible implications that changes in major elements of each of the scenarios might bring,
and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report. Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
it is very hard to foresee the social impacts of the technology, but the course of development can still be altered easily.
social impacts can be observed. However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult. This dilemma highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of technological developments even at very early stages.
and thus, will have an impact in all areas of economic activities (examples are the materials production industry, pharmaceutical industry, electronics industry).
bbig markets, apart from materials, in which nanotubes may make an impact, include flat panel displays (near-term commercialisation is promised here),
Functional implications should provide plenty of clues for the establishment of a set of parametric indicators that will measure urban development impacts.
This scenario generates strong environmental and social impacts due to a model based on strong economic growth and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,
The study area reflects a fragile environment whose ecosystem could be disturbed irreversibly by the increasing impact of human pressure.
Area of primary-production land needed to support the resource use of the dwellers on urban land VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 327 difficult to decouple the increasing environmental impact.
or minimize the generation of heavy environmental impact: B Satisfy social needs in a context where individualism
and allows one to study the impact of different possible decisions, i e. to explore various future scenarios at different degrees of detail,
the impact promises to be even greater. In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
for instance, the potential impact that different legal reforms can have applied when to different and prospective world conditions.
assessing the impact of different regulatory options. Modelling techniques would allow legislators and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.
The effects of legal changes and reforms could thus be anticipated and tested in safe and experimental environments.
and to the need to produce better accounts of effective and demonstrable impact of legislation.
not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society, it would also render legislators
and legal practitioners more attentive (and also more accountable) to the outcomes and impact of enacted or revised legislation.
In this context, the incorporation of FTA METHODS and tools to lawmaking activities accompanies the growing interest in Regulatory Impact assessment (RIA) by European policy makers.
The, the impact of these laws could be reviewed, evaluated and forecasted in greater depth and accuracy.
FTA, in this respect, could also reinforce the development of ex ante impact assessments (the ones performed prior to the enactment of a new legislation,
Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions and to evaluate the likelihood of their realisation and their strengths.
Ex post impact assessments are able to evaluate the efficacy and the efficiency of regulatory instruments by measuring
together with the use of scenarios, models and simulations to anticipate the set of possible implications that a new proposed law may produce, bear important similarities with the combination of ex ante with ex post impact assessments.
to analyse and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 345 laws, contributing to the modernisation of current legislative processes;
as a result of a scoping study comparing a series of Impact assessment (IA) exercises and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4
If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology, it can be performed only at later stages of technology development
widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,
which makes it difficult to even determine relevant impact categories. Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.
because impact identification and assessment have to be carried out at an extremely early stage and their results are expected to find consideration in practical decisions.
The first one is the assessment of the impacts of its production. Although there are many knowledge gaps
Methods like Life cycle Analysis or Materials Flow Analysis are comparatively sharp swords in the analysis and assessment of ecological and economic impacts of new materials technologies.
In this situation, is it possible to find ways to consider knowledge about the potential impacts of a technology which admittedly is gained with high uncertainty and its assessment with regard to sustainability already in early phases of technology development?
or to even avoid negative impacts on sustainability? Wanting to do this completely ex ante certainly means to overstrain the ambitions of this intention.
which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
'and‘user'and a directed linear model of impact and causality that makes these categories salient.
and socially and economically important innovations are invented often several times before they eventually start to have real impact.
How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology, when we only retrospecttivel know what we are talking about?
allowing future to have an impact on the present: To take a transparent example: if I am walking in the woods,
or predict the impact of causality in the natural system by using the rules of inference in the formal system.
there is little reason to believe that conventional‘impact analysis'models could lead to useful insights if innovation matters.
The impact of cognitive biases on strategy. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 16, no. 2: 105 17.
Actionable future visions Timely mitigation of negative impacts or adaptation to new situations and exploitation of positive outcomes Guidance and support for the policy process identifying impacts on society and implications for policy,
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
The impact of the highly improbable. Newyork: Random House. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014
Hambrick 1982) and to investigate their likely evolution and impact on the organisation (foresight techniques:
for example, Delphi, relevance trees, trend-impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems dynamics, and game theory (Glenn 1999; Porter et al. 2004;
which focuses on the evolution, impact, and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006). Such system aims at encompassing
this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).
Wild cards are low-probability, high-impact events (Mendonça et al. 2004. Continuous and discontinuous drivers might have either low or high probability and either high impact or low impact:
what matters (compared with wild cards) is the nature of their impact on the boundaries of the business. 7. Of course,
we do not mean that mature industries might not be affected by‘discontinuous'drivers of change: a new technological paradigm might be established in mature industries as well,
and scope Planning Planning Planning D Run the business Inventory analysis Implementation and operation Accounting Delivery C Monitor the business Impact evaluation Verification and corrective action Auditing
management directives and cost of accidents and impacts-No processes or controls in place and no support from leadership/senior management-Success depends on individual efforts;
firm's target is to gain product/service quality and main objective is to enhance the firm's image-Negative impact prevention driven by processes-Balance between emotions
individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
Research investment decisions made 10 and 15 years ago are having a direct impact on national security programs today.
‘black swans'(utterly unsuspected phenomena that have significant impacts), and unlikely futures (futures that are seen not as credible,
First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
and impact evaluation. She has an MSC in Applied Geography from La Sapienza University of Rome.
Her research interests are especially in future-oriented research in linking ecological and social aspects of sustainability and in social impact assessment.
Impacts of European RTOS. A study of social and economic impacts of research and technology organisations.
A report to EARTO. Technopolis Group Ltd. Barker D.,and D. J. H. Smith. 1995.
and the anticipated (disruptive) impacts on markets and on society are difficult (although not impossible) to foresee.
and to compile mentions of possible applications and developmental or impact issues. We also identify active organisations
and foresee societal impacts beneficial, as well as undesirable while the course of technology development remains more malleable (Collingridge 1980;
If possible, it can also be valuable to obtain the views of the participants on impact assessment:
This leads us to the second type of technology assessment impact assessment. We especially would like to identify potential hazards
Laying out alternative pathways also raises impact assessment needs. Figure 7 notes possible impacts and issues worth further analyses.
The variability among NEST situations and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered very flexibly.
Impact on policy and decision making. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 457 61. Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
Impact ionisation solar cells Tio2, Zno...Totally new principle (by nanotechnology) Enlarged the effective optical path for absorption DSSCS Is coming to market Organic materials Shorten the path that electrons
B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development and the required social conditions toward addressing the challenges;
Events that may have implicit impact and base or general-purpose technologies tend to have little chance of being mentioned. 3. 2 Procedure of combination Text mining is employed to combine information from two sources, i e.
it is a crucial element in ensuring that such activities have maximum impact. Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
including the call for greater impact of results as well as greater accountability for the generation of those results.
and impact of these activities on the innovation system strategic dialogues are used, both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
''although‘‘societal''has been used in some of the initiatives to emphasise the social scale and impact of the challenges (European commission DG Research,
and 2. a more explicitly problem or impact-oriented approach. In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
their potential impact and the opportunities (including market opportunities) they present for Ireland and the research areas that will be required to address the challenges and meet the opportunities''(Project Terms of Reference).
and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.
rationale and evidence 2 Potential impact (global and national; emerging indications; timescales 3 Potential disruptive factors trend breakers, accelerators, wild cards 4 Connectivity and contingencies links with other drivers and trends 5 Challenges that this presents
the potential impact they might have on The irish national context over the coming ten to 15 years,
With what impacts and challenges? 3 What are the implications, if any, of these drivers for Ireland's research needs and opportunities?
anticipation of likelihood and impact Participants in the roundtable discussions were given time individually to appraise the drivers
A scale of 1-5 was used for likelihood and impact. There was an average of 29 responses for each question, with a range of 19-35 responses.
There was broad agreement on the most likely and highest impact trends (Table IV. Six of the trends appear in the‘‘Top 10''both for likelihood and impact:
1. ageing populations; 2. renewable energy; 3. peak oil; 4. converging technologies; 5. increasing pace of change;
Figure 1 shows the distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix.
For illustrative purposes, an example is given of a high impact and high likelihood trend (converging technologies; there is one example of a high impact
but lower likelihood trend‘‘global trade falters''.''PAGE 34 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 4. 3 An emerging set of grand challenges for Ireland research needs and implications A set of 12 challenges was provided for consideration
Consequences of climate change adaptation Acidification Demographic pressures Global population growth Ageing populations Urbanisation Migration impacts Mobility and transport Traditional transport modes Infrastructure
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 35 Figure 1 Distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix Table IV Most likely and highest
impact trends (identified by roundtable participants) Ten trends most likely to happen Ten highest impact trends Rise of BRICS Converging technologies Ageing populations Knowledge economy Global population
while renewable energy makes an impact on energy supply The challenge for Ireland is to achieve greater energy security
and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
the challenges varied in scale and impact, where some appeared to be narrower and more specific for the national RTDI system.
impacts and implications on policy-making'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 252-64. Martin, B. R. and Johnston, R. 1999),‘Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system.
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