and B an assessment of their impact on policy-making. For characterisation of the projects, several dimensions are used.
and 3. questions for further investigation on the basis of the main results and conclusions of the project we identify directions for further analysis in order to increase the impact of the project's results on policy-making.
Finally, the impact of the projects on policy-making is assessed. For this assessment the following scale is used:
B Indirect impact This means that the project results (such as lists of priorities, the most important research topics, policy recommendations) were used for informing policy-makers.
To identify the impact of the projects considered according to this scale, different documents (like project materials,
Therefore, we can conclude that the results of FS3 had a high direct impact on policy-making.
Schmoch (2008) Figure 1 Example for Delphi topic mapping PAGE 60 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 3. Results, impacts and policy options
Calof, J. and Smith, J. 2010),‘The integrative domain of foresight and competitive intelligence and its impact on R&d management'',R&d Management, Vol. 40 No. 1, pp. 31-9
Transformations can occur as a result of disruptive events (i e. unexpected, short-term and sudden events, with immediate and ongoing impacts, for
since change is gradual, with slow diffusion and with medium to long-term impacts), or transformation by design (i e. change processes that are planned,
the higher/more favourable impacts of FLAS can be expected (assuming an appropriate quality and methodological rigour of conducting FTA) 6. Against this backdrop,
and surprises with disruptive impacts on their domains. Therefore, it is the task of FTA to
6 M. Weber, A. Havas, D. Schartinger, Exploring the Potential impact of FLA on National Innovation systems.
'and to contribute to the robustness of FTA, in terms of process, content, and impacts. Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
Agami et al. 29 show the use of fuzzy logic for trend impact analysis combining surprise-free forecasts and consensus-based experts'judgments.
Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
Thorleuchter et al. 35 demonstrate that patent-based quantitative approaches to cross-impact analysis for the identification of relationships between technologies can be used instead of,
specifically in ex-ante (and ex-post) impact assessment. 5. 1. 2. Misconceptions In order to avoid getting stuck in the circle of epistemological barriers, lack of skills and lack of trust,
as well as guidance for the 16 If forecasting is used to compare the impact of alternative policy options,
validation could consist of comparing forecast results of the selected policy with the ex-post impacts of that policy. 394 K. Haegeman et al./
Change 76 (2009) 1037 1050.29 N. Agami, M. Saleh, H. El-Shishiny, A fuzzy logic based trend impact analysis method, Technol.
and patent-based cross-impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 1037 1050.36 R. Popper, Foresight methodology, in:
J. Educ. 100 (1992) 236 256.54 T. D. Jick, Process and Impacts of a Merger:
Anal. 14 (2006) 227 249.64 M. K. B. Lüdeke, Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2006.
He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
It includes two dimensions the competitive impact and integration in products or process and four stages.
According to Arthur's definition, the characteristic of the emerging stage is a new technology with low competitive impact and low integration in products or processes.
In the growth stage, there are pacing technologies with high competitive impact that have not yet been integrated in new products or processes.
and maintain their high competitive impact. As soon as a technology loses its competitive impact it becomes a base technology.
It enters the saturation stage and might be replaced by a new technology. According to this definition, Ernst 10 developed a map to illustrate TLC (Fig. 1). The dominant approach to analysing TLC with an S-curve is to observe technological performance,
And according to the definition of TLC, in a technology's growth stage, there are pacing technologies with high competitive impact that have not yet been integrated into new products or processes.
Indeed, explicit analyses of what factors and forces are apt to alter projected developmental trends are worthwhile note Ted Gordon's Trend Impact analysis (TIA) especially 34.
or delayed impacts on society of introducing new technologies i e.,, technology assessment but that is beyond the scope of this study.
This means that there are pacing technologies with high competitive impact that have not yet been integrated into new products or processes.
Technol. 20 (2009) 1 18.34 T. J. Gordon, Trend impact analysis, in: J. C. Glenn, T. J. Gordon (Eds.
to assessing future technological impacts, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 79 (1)( 2012) 16 29.40 A l. Porter, Technology foresight:
or reduce the negative impacts of uncertain adverse effects of a policy; seizing actions to profit from opportunities;
understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207.19 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Examples include learning effects, the impact of shortage on price, and substitutions in case of shortages.
The factors chosen for the axes should be high-impact, high-uncertainty, and to ensure that the four spaces defined by their intersection are differentiated clearly.
Comprehensive and well-designed roadmaps linking today's experiments with future images can improve the impact of the scenarios.
and the multi-axes method using factors of high uncertainty and high impact. Based on our reflexive inquiry used to analyze scenario exercises in their context
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making Seville 16 17,october 2008, 2008.62 K. Borch, F. Mérida, Dialogue in foresight:
Especially the inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
and vision building which impact the complex interplay of factors governing innovation trajectories 27.1 http://www. iso. org/iso/iso technical committee. html?
The small section of the IWGN workshop report on the social impact of nanotechnology contains a vision on the future
safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
but focus predominantly on economic issues and impacts. The BMBF commissioned several forecasting studies on nanotechnology-related fields starting in the early 1990s.
The forward-looking activities of the US nanotechnology initiative have had a major impact on the future orientation within the US political realm with regard to nanotechnology governance
Both in the US and Germany, actors conducting early FTA did not claim to have a broad impact on public policy,
The inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology.
& Social Change In such mission-oriented STI strategies the socioeconomic impact becomes the key criterion for STI priority setting.
Common ground of almost all the approaches is the consideration of impact and uncertainty as the main criteria for selecting the factors to be used for actually constructing the scenarios 18.
No impact/uncertainty analysis was conducted. Instead after discussing all signals each project member selected the most surprising and interesting signals according to their personal opinion.
For each signal of change a possible impact on the future of innovation was estimated in an intuitive manner by the project members
Based on these short descriptions the signalswere clustered according to their possible impact. As a result 19 clusters of signals of change were identified.
In subsequent phases of the INFU project, the findings were assessed by actors from various stakeholder groups with respect to impacts for society, economy and ecosystems 29.
and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix
Acknowledging the impact of mindset filters (even when working in a project consortium) 31 the assessment of coverage of dimensions of change supported the project teamin looking for specific signals of change that had at first been neglected due to perception filters.
which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
As indicated above there has been a steady increase in the application of criteria of relevance and impact, particularly but not exclusively in terms of working with business.
'A key problem with horizonscanning is that it normally adopts a scattergun approach which leaves each topic treated superficially and in isolation, with little guidance on interlinkages and cross-impacts,
For science the need to demonstrate impact dominates the policy agenda in some countries and even the most responsive-mode oriented of European programmes,
and with great impact having been preceded by little or nothing in the way of prior signals.
A running theme in the world of FTA is need the to address evaluation and impact.
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In:
and methods for appreciating global impact. The Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
and connecting‘the future'as an aspect of reality (ontology) with its impact on choice.
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
Many foresight exercises have had no impact on policy-making. This lack of impact has led policy-makers to require that the content of foresight exercises relate to current political agendas
and that their processes relate to policy making processes 1. Academic research has explored also this issue, focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.
However, according to Hofstede, organisational behaviour is supposed only to have a small impact on national culture. 2. 2. Hofstede's dimensions of national culture Hofstede takes a bipolar and multidimensional approach to the measurement of national culture.
impacts and implications on policy-making, Futures 43 (April 3))(2011) 252 264.3 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:
not only in the impact of using scenario analysis methods in the different phases of the policy cycle,
but also in the factors that affect the potential impact on the policy process, we look at the perceived levers and barriers as well.
Generally speaking, it is difficult to assess the impact of a foresight exercise by making a direct connection with a specific strategic decision.
and politically sensitive factors that can have a major impact on the way the results of the studies are used.
the impact of a future study depends to a significant degree on who is Involved with regard to the initiator and coordinator,
task force or ambassador is required to make sure that the foresight study has an impact. To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
and have a greater impact on strategic policy processes. The lack of experience at the local level can be related to some of the barriers mentioned above.
The fourth and last principle is‘glocal'impact orientation. This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures.
and a‘glocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed
form an important core capability that impacts on the ability of organisations to undertake strategic foresight.
can provide a relevant starting point. 2. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation Many researchers specialised in international management 20,21 have argued for‘glocalization'as the transformation of global and local interests into a new
thus leading to diverse impacts in different regions and conditions. 3. Case: intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS) 2020 IMS2020 was an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European commission within the IMS Framework, conducted by an international consortium of 15 core partners and a large group
The compiled results were discussed in a workshop with all project partners to select the main impact dimensions which influence all the KATS;
3. Defining the main features of all identified variables and their possible behaviours related to the selected main impact dimensions;
4. Devising a framework, according to Fig. 3 (below), based on the main impact dimensions which were used to select the snapshots to be developed.
The selected main impact dimensions were:(i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability;
and show the possible impacts or benefits that they could deliver in a timeline towards the IMS2020 Joint Vision (see Fig. 4 below).
and implementation of the project by bringing together the identification and discussion of intended impacts with efforts to define each operational step and question related to guiding the process.
From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),
Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
in order to attain the results and impacts intended. The modular design of the exercise was conducive to accommodating diverse stakeholder expectations.
which was critical to build ownership of results. 4. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation The management of the exercise integrated discussions on the outcomes of the exercise from the very first project meetings.
The objectives of the exercise as well as the expected impacts on industry and policy were discussed also in meetings with the European commission.
During the kickoff meeting the JRC-IPTS framework (Fig. 1) was used to present different alternatives to achieve the intended impacts,
and were expected to have a greater impact in terms of sustainable manufacturing 33 and IMS. This understanding of potential needs at the local level which influence IMS at EU
id=3982.23 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, Foresight's impact on policy-making:
Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
Furthermore, expectations of outcomes and impacts tend to be context-dependent, and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,
and expected impacts can somehow be related to different contexts and conditions. The first paper from Eriksson and Weber, presents the methodological concept of Adaptive foresight.
and to ensure a better link between Foresight and its impact on decision-making processes. The paper discusses Adaptive foresight
The concept is based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises. Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
and learning Another very important theme addressed by the FTA 2006 International Seminar relates to FTA evaluation, impact and learning.
The objective of tackling this issue was to address sponsor concerns for better accounts of demonstrable impacts.
without better and fuller accounts of impacts, the future sponsorship of FTAACTIVITIES (and certainly their wider diffusion and expansion) is likely to bemore difficult and places the whole activity under threat.
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
the impacts of new technologies (e g. the impacts of the internet on teaching; demographic change; increased competition and the need to do well in national and global rankings;
In order to have an impact and be effective, it is important that FTA practitioners understand the policy-making process.
since mainly on the impacts of information and communication technologies. Attachment to the Secretariat of the German Bundestag's Enquete Commission on Technology assessment prior to the creation of the German Parliament's Office of Technology assessment (TAB),
despite the potential impact of unanticipated use on future success or failure (e g.,, in terms of user adoption.
both very advanced users as well as non-expert users are capable of reflecting on possible future developments, their possible impact,
24 (2007) 53 75.21 R. W. Veryzer, B. Borja de Mozota, The impact of user-oriented design on new product development:
here the results of the Strategic Diagnosis (second phase) will be analysed in terms of its impacts on alternative scenarios.
in this article scope, type and the impact of its results. Finally the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
and Gemu nden 5. Foresight role Impact Initiator role Identify new needs Identify emerging technologies Identify competitors'concepts early Strategist role Assess
and analyzing thoughts about the future and (3) analyzing the possible impact of future developments. Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
Therefore, the aim of this special section is to refine FTA METHODOLOGIES in order to increase their impact in policy-making.
The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
Defining FTA and its impact on policy and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
Refining FTA METHODOLOGIES with the aim to imprrov their impact on policy and decision-making requires a clear definition of
what this impact can be. At first sight, the degree of action-orientation of any FTA is likely to determine the degree of its impact on policy and decision-making.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
Refining FTA for more impact on policy and decision-making With a view to improving the impact of fta on policy-making and thus on the extent to
the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis arrived at various general recommendations for increasing the impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in policy-making,
Do not think of impacts at the end. Rather, start with the impacts and their larger implications early enough to engage clients
and stakeholders in the strategic question of how FTA can improve both their preparedness and ability to move fast
and keep improving it through rigorous pursuit of impact. Dedication to quality, insights, effective communications and innovation are also important.
Apart from these general recommendations, individuua papers presented at the conference proposed a wide variety of methodological approaches that could improve policy impact.
Methods and Impacts. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008. Methods and tools contributing to FTA.
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
or prevent these problems or to diminnis the negative impacts of these problems. Horiizo scanning does not replace the more focused FTA ACTIVITIES
A focus on all signals that might have significant impact on the strategic missions and underlying values of the actor (s). No particular time frame (try to look forward as far as we can see or imagine),
and generally under-researched which might have a significant impact on our future way of living and
Results policy impacts and implications Comparison of national horizon scans Rationales for governmental horizon scanning All three scans can be considered as very broad-scope foresight processes that look well beyond the preseentday horizon for new
Identify possible inter-linkages (enhancers, inhibitoors multipliers) between future issues (from differren parts of the horizon) with a potentially major impact.
Within the UK scan and The netherlands scan, attemmpt have been made to rank the issues according to estimated overall impact (on implicit
and impact (taking into account the sustainability dimensioon) At the end of the 2007 round, the issues were published in a final report.
In The netherlands the approach used can be descrribe as the cluster approach (see Figure 2). This started with the assembling of clusters of issues with potentially impact-rich interactions.
Issue (or PTO) selection is therefore based on likelihood and estimated impact on the future of our society.
Issuue were selected on the basis of indications in the literature of either positive and/or negative impact on these values.
and stakehollder will also have indirect impacts among this group. Within The netherlands the preliminary results of the horizon scan (COS) were used also as input for the strategic planning
It is expected that widening the cooperation may reveal more issues of high impact that are overlooked in the scans that are now combinned especially
the identification and significaanc of faint or weak signals and wild cards, how to deal with complexity, the learning function of horizon scanning, stakeholder participation and how to increeas impact.
or weak signals for strong impact developments to come. Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government
technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities
because issues may cause very high positive impact on one or more of these values but at the same time very negative impact on one or more of the others. 15.
Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
The impact of the foresight on policy was limited as it did not lead to direct policy measures,
The growing adoption of ICT is having a momentous impact on all areas of the economy,
The high degree of uncertainty and the flexibility of the methodological approach also demanded that impact assessment
(or even impact identification) became a crosscutting rather than a separate task in order to be able to adjust the methood to be used in the light of the deeper understanndin of likely impacts.
This paper describes and assesses the FTA procees and methodology used to envision the future of the European creative content sector,
we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
She is also invollve in research on the impact of ICTS on sustainability. She was responsible for the European Perspectives on the Information society (EPIS) project,
We further draw some lessons about the impact of using this particular FTA APPROACH on European commission policy-making,
with its focus on the impact of ICTS on the production and distribution of creative content goods. We therefore defined the creative content sector as the collection of activities involving the creation and distribution of goods with an intrinsic cultural, aesthetic or entertainment value,
An impact assessment was possible (and necessaary to a varying extent at every stage of the process:
In the initial sector analysis, impact chains were studied, although not in a systematic way, so as to gain an in depth understanding of the sector and its transformation.
The Delphi was meant to help reduce the uncertainntie associated with some of the impacts we came across in the analysis. Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Policy analysis Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC
experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010
23 The scenarios aimed to synthesise the insights about potential impacts (including the differences in opinion about the impacts of some trends.
'which in the end made up the main dimenssion for the overall impact assessment. In our case, these were mainly sub-dimensions of two sustainability dimensions, namely of the‘sociial and the‘economic'ones.
any attempt at environmental impact assessment would have gone far beyond the scope of the project. The policy analysis phase aimed to look not only at the issues as such
and identify the impacts of digitisation and other trends on the various steps in the value chain,
but further analysis was required to assess the role and impact of technology trends and user behaviour.
The analysis was successful in providing a picture of emerging trends that impact the creative content sector.
The key point about these issuue is that impacts will differ according to scenarioos as illustrated in more detail in the subsequent section.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
Consequently, our impact assessment focused on four categories of issues (technology, regulatory, market and user related), each encompassing a number of sub-issues.
and Figure 5. Creative content goods, impact on industrial structure and key technologies Source: Mateos-García et al.
and measure impacts; promoting further innovation-oriented public procureement and adopting further measures to encourage new entrants.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
when dealing with a sector in flux and where uncertainties are so high that even experts have trouble imagining impacts (as the strong discrepancies in trend impact assessments show).
In this sense, addressing emergiin issues and their potential impact throughout all stages makes sense as it helps improve our understanndin step-by-step.
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisionmakking held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. References Aho Expert Group 2006.
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