The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
Thus, program impact via policy appears to be the most important macro-objective for foresight.
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
and Decker (2004) similarly identified the broad impacts of foresight exercises which they divided into technological/scientific aspects
and socieeta impacts (see Table 2) . However, there are some who feel that success should not be based on program impact.
For instance, according to Hennen (2000: 154) technology assessment is:..not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
Conceptually, this would be multifaceted a complex evaluation based on the broad impacts of an FTA PROCESS. Similarly, Amanatidou and Guy (2006) have pointed out the direct and indirect benefits of FTA:
Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts.
so as to gain agility and strengthen preparedness Learning effects impacts Supports system actors to create their own futures Creates a shared vision amongst diverse actors Gain insights into complex interactions
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
This concept of direct impact was identified also by Van der meulen et al. 2003): ) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
and Table 2. Foresight impact dimensions Dimension Impact issue Raising knowledge Forming attitudes and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment:
What tools/metrics/parameters work best to measure impacts? Can you point to any major policy,
economic or scientific impacts that you believe can be attributte to a national foresight program? Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey.
So we concluded that achieving program impact via policy appears to be the most important macroobjeectiv for foresight:
survival is difficult without a visible and positive impact on policy. This suggesste two dominant criteria for success:
impact and survival. Table 5. Foresight objectives Main objective Sub-objectives Increase societal and economic well-being Economic growth and national competitiveness Societal well being, covering social, environmental, cultural
and so many experts indicated that this presented constant hurdles to creating the leveel of appreciation and support necessary to assuur strong policy impacts.
According to most interviewees, success creates impact, and impact creatte survival. In looking at the critical success factors it was clear that they go beyond methodology.
Together the two studies provide plenty of guidannc and a list of considerations that are relevant for designers of foresight systems,
discernible impact on government policy has been low and the program as initially formulated did not survive Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
Finally, this study has identified policy impact as what should be the key measure of foresight progrra success. Unfortunately,
Pleas from sponsors of FTA ACTIVITIES for better accounts of demonstrable impacts are as old as FTA itself.
Yet, little work has been done in this area, with most accounts of impacts confiine to individual case study descriptions.
Interpreting foresight procees impacts: steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.
Evaluation, impact and learning. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
and bioterrorism that impacts the economy, environment, and public health. More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of informatiio generation and collection, information managemment information analysis,
Compromising biosecurity can have a far-reaching impact on many other social infrastructures and many aspects of human activities, population structurres or even the survival of humankind (in the event of a global pandemic.
and changing food supplies due to the impact of climate change on land and water supplies. Emerging infectious diseases While severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza have attracted major attention in receen years,
Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
and have impacts on decisionmakkin and actions in the private and public sectors through cooperation over a wide geographical area, specifically the Asia-pacific region in the next decaad and beyond.
the trends of potential infectious diseases, the timing of the emergence of those diseases, the level of severity of the impacts from the spread of those infectious diseases to communiitie etc.
or reduce the impact of the crisis as described in each scenario. Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al.
and management of EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology applications that have high impact to combat EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology research domain
Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
as having a high impact on combating EID and achieving biosecurity. Resuult were analyzed and presented as shown in the following tables.
suggesting potential activities that could have a high impact in efforts to combat EID. The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF,
Assessing vaccine-preventable diseases burden and immunization impact. Available at<http://www. who. int/immunization monitoring/burden/en/>,last accessse August 2008
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed,
The impact of userorieente design on new product development: an examination of fundamental relationships. The Journal of Product Innovatiio Management, 22 (2), 128 143.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Impact of Swiss technology policy on firm innovation performance: an evaluation based on a matching approach Spyros Arvanitis, Laurent Donzé and Nora Sydow This paper investigates the impact of the promotional activities of The swiss Commission of Technology
and Innovation (CTI) on the innovation performance of the supported firms based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supported by the CTI in the period 2000 2002.
A further finding was that the magnitude of the impact correlated positively with the relative size of the financial support
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 64 avoids the functional form restrictions implicit in running a regression of some type.
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.
i e. estimations of the impact of policy, proceed by means of an ex post assessment of the activities of the firms that have received subsidies.
In this study we apply matching methods to evaluate the impact of R&d subsidies on the innovatiio performance of subsidized firms.
we review studies at firm level that aim to measure the impact of public fiscal support on some performance measure
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio
and is the only study that compares the impact of two different policy instrumments Six out of ten studies use R&d intensity,
Most studies Table 1. Summary of selected empirical studies Study/country Policy instrument being evaluated Number of firms Approach Impact on target variable Sakakibara (1997),
+-positive (negative) and statistically significant effect at 10%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 67 find a positive policy effect but in some cases
-and-a-half years until the end of the reference period to realize some impact of these projects on their innovation performmanc (e g. introduce new products);
Hence, for the large majority of the projects there was enough time to have a measurable impact of R&d on their innovation performance.
it is possible that only part of the impact could be realized before the end of 2002.
In this sense our estimations of the impact of CTI promotion would thus represent a lower bound on the possible effects.
%Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 68 significantly lower than the respective share of projeect of these scientific fields.
CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out
G g a-=0 N a Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 70 (6) where and is the kernel7 at the point In a fifth step,
we interpreted this result as empirrica evidence that the impact of the CTI subsidies was correlated positively to the magnitude of the subsidy quotient.
Hence,‘high-subsidy'firms would show a larger impact than the‘low-subsidy'ones. Results of the matched-pairs analysis Comparison of the innovation performance of subsidized firms depending on the subsidy quotient Table 4 provides a qualitative summary of the resuult of the comparison of the innovation performannce as measured by six different
5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 71 innovation performance than non-subsidized firms (at the 5%test level.
5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 72‘low-subsidy'firms from that of the respective groups of non-subsidized firms.
Hence, for these cases we have some empirical evidence that the impact on innovation performance is dependent on the relative magnitude of the subsiid granted.
according to our results the larger the subsidy (in relative terms), the larger the impact effect for a series of indicators that measure the economic success of innovation (sales shares of products with different grades of innovativeeness reduction
'A further finding was that the magnitude of the impact correlated positively with the relative size of financial support as measured by the quotient of the volume of financial support to the volume of a supporrte firm's own R&d expenditures.
if an amount of about CHF60 million in 2004 (meanwhile CHF100 150 million of additional R&d support per annum) could have a discernible impact on an economy that invested about CHF19 billion in R&d in 2004.
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 73 Appendix Table A1.
Italian (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 74appendix (continued) Table A3.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 75 Appendix (continued) Table A5.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 76 Appendix (continued) Table A7.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science
'Transformations can occur in the form of disruptive events (i e. unexpected, short-term and sudden events, with immediaat and ongoing impacts, for
since change is gradual, with slow diffusion and with medium to long-term impacts), or transformation by design (i e. change processes that are planned,
a practical understanding that not every idea will achieve immediate impact, but may be used at a later date,
and impacts associated with the theme of the main exercise. The basis for a good decision-making process is laid out in this phase, providing for clarity and making it as comprehensive as possible.
This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in agricultural and health sectors Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies;
economic impacts of GMOS; national and international legal and regulatory biosafety framewoork access to genetic resouurce and traditional knowledge;
which considered future trends in ST&I and their possible long-term impacts on the agency. This was created due to FINEP's need to promote changes in its organizational and management processes,
and it is imporrtan to stress the possible influence and impacts from other business segments.
In the last decades, the rise of new public management within state administration has had also a major impact on science policy-making,
A related debate centered on the impact of foreign direct investment, which had been encouraged strongly by Chinese official policy,
The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
But the impacts of FTA in this respect have fallen somewhat short of expectations up until now. The central question in this paper is
when exploring the nature and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions. The knowledge developed under FTA helps to articulate visions and expectations
and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,
2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
Similarly, in many respects, breakthrough technologies due to developments in information and communiccatio technologies and nano-and biotechnologies have disruptive impacts on economies, markets and innovative consumer goods and services.
Increased mobility, the instantaneoou impact of events through social media and the socioculttura interconnections linking Europe to the rest of Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 153 165 doi:
which can have equally significant medium-to long-term impacts (consider the convergence of technologies, as discussed by Nordmann (2004)).
high-impact issues that challenge societal and economic health. Recognised grand challenge areas are‘grand'in the sense that they are instantly recognisable as representing a major aspect of human
unprepared for short-term and sudden but with immediate and ongoing impact (s). Secondly, ongoing processes of transformation change may be difficult to detect due to the gradual nature of the process
and the medium-to long-term impacts associated with them, for example in the case of climate change or environmental change.
and the impacts they generate immediately and in deeper, more pervasive, but less obvious ways over time (Ko nno la et al. 2012a).
technology and innovation (STI) policies and achieving impact on national innovation systems (NIS). They argue that external FTA services are useful
Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
and generate a range of impacts: building a continuous and shared approach to understand the present,
The Impact of Highly Improbable. New york: Random House. Thompson, M.,Ellis, R. and Wildavsky, A. 1990) Cultural Theory.
Weber, M.,Havas, A. and Schartinger, D. 2011)‘ Exploring the potential impact of FLA on national innovation systems,
particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges. One such international organisation is ICSU.
they can have a considerable impact on the funding and structuring of science. Nevertheless, the vast majority of financial support for science continues to be at the national level.
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
which trends over the next 20 years are more or less clear at least in their direction of evolution, if not in their precise impacts, as follows:.
from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
The relationship between science and society is likely to have a significant impact on the future of international science.
there could be a range of different impacts on international science, especially around security concerns.
The impact of emerging economies and possible new collaborations will see a changing international science landscape.
Such changes could have impacts on the approaches to science and the balance between national-scale versus international-scale science.
This is also likely to have impacts on those countries with limited scientific capacity at present. International collaborative research infrastructures:
The types of future international collaborative research infrastructures will have a significant impact on international science, presuming that there is an ongoing commitment to such structures at all.
The move to open-access publishing is likely to have a number of impacts, in particular,
which would have impacts for international science. Scientific careers: The nature of the‘scientific career'could change.
which are summarised in Box 3. 4. Impacts and lessons In this final section, the impacts of the exercise and its reception are reported
and the peculiarities specific to conducctin international foresight exercises are discussed. 4. 1 Reception and impacts The exercise is expected to have impacts both inside and outside of ICSU.
Internally the results of the exercise have had already an impact in shaping ICSU's new strategic plan (ICSU 2011a.
In particular, the megatrend and key drivers analyses have been important in framing and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades.
The internal impacts of the success scenario are less certain at the time of writing,
3 The impacts of selected wild cards can then be analysed by‘running them through'the success scenario.
the level of study (e g. does the study focus on the generic impacts 180. T. Ahlqvist et al. of ICT in society or specific applications in a defined sector) and the nature of the process and its participants. 3. 2 Policy rationales of IPRM A key aspect of IPRM is that it links the results
The structure of the systemic transformation roadmap is presented in Fig. 1. This roadmap depicts the impacts of the objects under scrutiny (e g. new industrial practice and emerging service business) in an overall systemic level.
Verification of environmental impacts SOLUTIONS: Zero energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. cooling, air conditioning, heating;
public funding for research and technology development, technoloog validation and the verification of environmental impacts. Financial support for collaborative Industrial r&d will provide the basis for an innovation-driven construction industry,
management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,
In the medium term, ecodesign tools are used widely to minimize the environmental impacts of products over their life cycle.
and processes for the environmental impact assessment of products and services, including carbon footprinting. The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available.
Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77. Heiskanen, E.,Kivisaari, S.,Lovio, R. and Mickwitz, P. 2009)‘ Designed to travel?
Weber, M.,Kubeczko, K.,Kaufmann, A. and Grunewald, B. 2009)‘ Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
evaluation and impact assessment are being discussed in Europe (European commission 2010a). At the level of innovation clusters the recently established first knowledge
and offer the opportunities to attain creative results faster with significant societal impacts. Finally, transnational programming in a non-European context may benefit even more from the capacity of foresight to act as an integrator,
2008)‘ Summary of the Impact assessment',Commission Staff Working Document. Accompanying document to the Towards Joint Programming.
2009)‘ Evaluation and impact assessment of the ERA NET scheme and the related ERA NET actions under the 6th Framework programme Volume 1:
The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,
and anticipate as well as discover emerging issues that could have a strategic impact on Singapore. It combines tools,
based on interlinked possible impacts. 2. 2 Exploratory and issue-centred scanning There are different approaches which underpin the scanning process.
innovation, emerging, issues, impact, change, future, emerging, promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns,
‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
or social signals (Uskali 2005) Wild cards Wild cards are events with a surprising character, a low probability and a high impact (Van Rij 2011).
Signals are sought then that give a full or substantial future narrative with high impact for a certain policy level.
which describe a future narrative with a foreseen great impact on future science, society or economy in combination with a need for present-day (policy) decisions to prevent,
mitigate or stimulate the foreseen impact. The storyline is based on their observations of breakthroughs, discoveries and/or events
or multiple future storyline leading to the impact. The story often contains some recommenddations or at least suggestions,
on the way the positive impact could be reached or the negative impact could be prevented. Only items (articles websites and videos) with more or less full storylines that connect factual findings
or plausible assumptions in a logical way with a foreseen future high impact are considered. These high impact items are supporrte by reliable sources such as:
scientific articles, statisttica analysis, trend reports and foresight exercises. The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects.
Rather it provides tools to alert for potential impact-rich issues that need policy attention. In order to identify and assess the primary signals,
described impact, desirabilitty factual basis, plausibility, novelty to policy-makers, interests at stake, emotional aspects and critical aspects (if the issue appeals
and changeability (if the story or its impact can be altered by human action and how the issue relates to present-day decision-making and action).
plausibility or impact. This is particularly relevant for the analysis and interpretation phase. Text-mining, as noted above,
After discussing the issues participants were asked to vote on the terms of the perceived impact, plausibility, novelty, policy relevance and strength of each of the emerging issues.
while the impact may be tremendous. Thus, their dissemination may encounter scepticism or be ignored totally. Once evidence is built up the claim for
and the ability to prevent negative impacts may be lost. As the signal starts to have visible negative impacts on its environment
possible controversies and disruptions may emerge alongsiid a general frustration about the lost opportunity to be informed earlier about the potential upcoming developmennts This forms a difficult challenge for scanners who Table 2. Comparison of tools
which may include huge-impact wild cards like the surprisinngl strong earthquake which occurred in Japan in March 2011.4.
or international organisation Positive and negative impacts and associated policy implications Policy recommendations 216. E. Amanatidou et al.
Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
which included both evidence-based and new emerging trends, wild cards and even brief descriptions of anticipated impacts and prospective policy recommendatiions Here,
and immediately see the impacts of these changes on the results: indeed, one reason for adopting the RPM approach was that it admits incomplete information about criterion weights
Is the challenge likely to provoke impacts that require urgent actions at EU level?.Tractability:
Impact: Are the actions to be taken by the EU expected to have a major global positive impact?
A reconsideration of the policy agenda of BEPA, together with a collective analysis of all issues
and other impacts such as migration 1 DI04 Massive migration due to climate change 3 ENV03 Global underpricing
and its impacts will be felt more intensely in the period 2025 50. According to the OECD (2008), 2. 8 billion,
Impacts and implicatiion on policy-making',Futures, 43: 252 64. Kuosa, T. 2010)‘ Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF:
The Impact of Highly Improbable. New york: Random House. du Toit, A. 2003)‘ Knowledge: A sense making process shared through narrative',Journal of Knowledge management, 7: 27 37.
and solutions and that they will have a huge impact if no solutions are found to solve the‘problems
They made use of different trend lines from historical data and identified longlasstin developments, sometimes in combinations of more than one line, with large impacts that were identified additionally.
and scientifically accepted description and monitoring of the large challenges that have global impacts (global
When assessing the scope and impact of these activities, it is useful to consider the specifics of the‘Fraunhofer innovation system
and results should be quickly implementable to create the maximum impact in the organisation in the shortest possible time. 3. 2 Former future-oriented processes at Fraunhofer (technology-driven) In 2004,
therefore as a‘means'to direct Fraunhofer's collaborative research into a direction with societal impact.
The anticipated impact of the project on the challenge had to be quantified as well as the market potential for Fraunhofer that would be opened up through the project.
First impact More than 130 Fraunhofer research teams participated in a first call and provided project ideas (see Fig. 1). Full project proposals were submitted by 20 consortia.
Therefore, the Fraunhofer experiment is unique among independent research institutions. 6. 2 Impact of the Fraunhofer future-oriented process The FTA PROCESS described in this paper produced dedicated research projects
so it is too early to evaluate their concrete impacts. Nevertheless, all the projects are expected to address a small part of a global challenge
problemorieente proposals require more general thinking, e g. about the impact aspect. Which result leads to a maximum impact in solving the problem?
A single researcher with one core competence is often not able to have an overview of the spectrum of alternative solutions.
Impact-orientation: a goal of the competitive call was to find the most convincing collaborative solution Fraunhofer could provide for the specific challenge.
Institute consortia were required to quantify the impact of the anticipated results of the projects. The careful analysis and illustration of the impact was indeed a hurdle for the proposal writer:
it was difficult to quantify an estimated impact..Moderation of problem-solving: conceptually, the bottom-up generation of the solution approaches should induce collaborative problem-solving
and was organised self by the institutes. But in most cases, one single institute took the lead in the problemsollvin with a certain technological focus and a solution concept.
in order to identify solutions with high impact and to foster collaborative aspects. Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
we expect this new demand-driven approach to have an impact on other Fraunhofer future processes:
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011