Synopsis: Science:


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The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;

In 2010 she started to work as a researcher in the field of futures studies, focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends


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''As a comprehensive term, FTA is anchored firmly‘‘in the relation between science and technology on the one hand,

and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.

and management and organisation science. They believe‘‘t hese will provide a variety of interpretative lenses that offer the possibility to expand our conceptualisation of FTA,

Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law. This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind,

At a general level, the application of fta to legal research constitutes an appeal to the creativity of the researcher and to the realisation of the full potential of his or her academic freedom.

Such methods will potentially enable researchers and legislators to identify future regulatory gaps and needs.

In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,

An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,

Here we might encounter an interesting (and ultimately) dangerous mix between Law and Science, with the crafting of odd notions as‘‘science-based law''or‘‘legally-based science''!

''As mentioned previously, it is important to keep Law as Law, that is, a human activity of judgements, interpretations, opinions and values,

In this respect, future work should be conducted regarding the boundaries between Science and Law, as a way to render Law a future-oriented activity that uses scientific methods without transforming itself into one of them. 5. Conclusions This paper has proposed a new methodological approach to Law,

reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,

For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001).

and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers

''and that‘‘specific initiatives are needed to shape the collaboration between science and policy''.''As a proposed solution, De Smedt argued that‘‘f urther initiatives on IA tools should

therefore include a joint collaboration between researchers and policymakers to develop a shared understanding of what constitutes a satisfactory agreement,

Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.

Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, available at: http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/eur20137en. pdf Tuomi,


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which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.

Science and technology roadmapping; Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA.

interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,

scientists and industry representatives that nanotechnology may or will contribute to economic prosperity and sustainable development (for an up-to-date and comprehensive overview see Ref. 3). On the other hand,

When scientists, politicians, journalists or dpeople in the streetst are discussing nanotechnology, they all have their own ideas and assumptions, interpretations and examples, scientific approaches and experiences in the back of their head.

at present and in the future researchers, developers and users are faced with strategic decisions on the continuation of their efforts again and again.

4. 1. Science and technology roadmapping a brief introduction A standard definition of roadmap or droadmappingt does not exist.

To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.

a bs and T (science and technology, T. F.)roadmap provides a consensus view or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers.

and participate in the development of science and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,

and to adapt the general concept of science and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.

Enable and teach interdisciplinary communication which for nanotechnology researchers is of special importance;!Discover new research options and alternative pathways;!

science and technology roadmaps in the domain of nanomaterials will be developed. In the first phase, an international working group integrating roadmap developers

and institutes (representing basic research on nanotechnology related phenomena, material researchers and developers, systems engineering, toxicology of nanoscopic structures,

systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:

The science-driven approach is starting with the current research activities, its results and plans for their continuation and is aiming at opening

Some reflections on the role that science roadmapping can play for research organisations how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./

We propose an adaptation of the concept of science roadmapping and its application to selected segments of the overall field of nanotechnology.

some scientists are restrained somewhat about their participation in a roadmapping process. Some fear to disclose too much sensitive knowledge to potential competitors,

. so will some scientists. But who better than scientists to experiment with an experiment that can strengthen sciences'support

and accelerate its generation of knowledgeq 9. References 1 D. Bu tschi, R. Carius, M. Decker, S. Gram, A. Grunwald, P. Machleidt, S. Steyaert, R

Science, interaction, and communication, in: M. Decker, M. Ladikas (Eds. Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy.

Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha

, Science and technology roadmaps, IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 48 (2)( 2001) 132 143.7 O. Da Costa,

M. Boden, Y. Punie, M. Zappacosta, Science and technology roadmapping: from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003.

Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 1 3. 9 R. Galvin, Science roadmaps, Science 280 (5365)( 1998) 803.10 A. Grunwald, Technikfolgenabscha tzung eine

he worked as researcher at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Stuttgart. Between 1997 and 2002 he was a member of the scientific staff of the Europa ische Akademie Gmbh where he managed several TA-projects


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driven by the confluence of nanotechnology, biotechnology and materials science (Linstone 2011a, 2011b. It is these fundamental changes that give rise to the main challenges of today'sworld.

which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. He derives three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations

Guo, Ma, Porter and Huang propose an approach to address the highly uncertain dynamics of New & Emerging science &technologies (NESTS.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005. Transformational innovation: A journey by narrative.


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Natural systems are the substance matter of sciences and what technologies seek to fabricate and control.

Science makes use of logical and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 744

Although many researchers believe that methodologically sound research requires that they stick to well-known and frequently used historical data sets,

Notes on contributor Ilkka Tuomi is Chief Scientist at Meaning Processing Ltd. He has a Phd in adult education (knowledge management) and MSC in theoretical physics, both from University of Helsinki.

The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos 3 4: 285 98.

Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 16, no. 2: 105 17. Callon, M.,J. Law, and A. Rip. 1986.

Mapping the dynamics of science and technology: Sociology of science in the real world. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Macmillan. CEPT-CCH-GSM. 1982.

How the sciences make knowledge. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Lane, D, . and R. Maxfield. 2004.

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20, no. 2: 130 41. Louie, A. H. 2010. Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems.

New Science Library. Mead, G. H. 1907. Review of L'evolution créatrice by Henri Bergson.

Economics, science, and knowledge: Polanyi vs. Hayek. Tradition & Discovery, The Polanyi Society Periodical XXV, no. 1: 29 42.

American Behavioral Scientist 42, no. 3: 493 504. Ruelle, D, . and F. Takens. 1971. On the nature of turbulence.

Administrative Science Quarterly 31, no. 3: 439 65. van Asselt, M. B. A, . and J. Rotmans. 2002.


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Much depends on the conflict between modernity, with its strong attachment to science, and post-modernity with its questioning of much that modernity accepts.

In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?

In many branches of science, the future is a‘grey hole'in which some of the matter is quantitative and some qualitative.

For example, engineers often create a working artefact before its theoretical underpinning (science) is understood fully: that is simply an example of a known unknown in science.

Scenarios are used often to present the quantitative and qualitative output of FTA. Bearing in mind that a scenario is the skeleton of a play

Casti (2010) is only the most recent person to question the frequent assumption that science

Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,

and internal consistency is often characterised by a significant separation of the phenomenon from the researcher,

since the researcher uses a priori constructs or models to specify the information to be collected process is highly efficient

the broad range of sciences and technologies that any FTA has to be able to cope with:

and their meaning at scales and with methods that are unimaginable at the present time except to a few scientists.

and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.

Copernicus Books, Springer Science+Business Media. Cooke, R. M. 1991. Experts in uncertainty: Opinion and subjective probability in science.

Oxford: Oxford university Press. Funtowicz, S. O, . and J. R. Ravetz. 1990. Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A:

Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences. Dordrecht, The netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Kurzweil, R. 2005. The singularity is near:

The art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. M'Pherson, P. K. 1974.


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Yet, anticipaatio in science and technology is limited not to foresight, but occurs in many more informal ways.

which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived,

and discusses the implications for formal foresight exercises of science and technology. The central question of this paper is whether and howforesight exercises,

which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. These two reviews allow us to reflect in Section 4 on the implications for the practice

This approach studies how expectations in science and technology are structured, how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear,

It investigates how researchers, businesses and governments derive their agendas from their collectively created images of a promising technology

it creates an obligation for the researchers: they should be able to meet this specification within two years.

or researchers themselves would have chosen. Participants will reason in terms of‘not missing the boat, but the‘boat'only exists due to the collective decision not to miss it.

Second, expectations provide direction to the search processes of science and technology (Rip and Kemp 1998.

'Other researchers argue that not only the pace, but also the content of research can be influenced by expectations.

Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,

In addition, sociologiist of science and technology point to the dynamic nature of science and technology:

are performative Expectations enhance the strategic character of S&t priority-setting The efficacy of foresight as an antidote to lock in is limited Enhanced legitimation for selected priorities Foresight exercises

to be contrasted with the numerous informal articulations of futures that circulate in science and technology.

and philosophy and has published widely on the dynamics of expectations in science and technology. His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology

The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 285 98.

Science Studies 16, no. 2: 3 21. Brown, N.,B. Rappert, anda. Webster, eds. 2000.

A sociology of prospective techno-science. Aldershot: Ashgate. Brown, N, . and M. Michael. 2003. A sociology of expectations:

What you should know about science. Cambridge: Cambridge university Press. Collins, H, . and T. Pinch. 1998.

The culture of new trends in science and Technology research Policy 28, no. 1: 81 98.

Social Studies of Science 33, no. 3: 327 64. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 781 Hellsten, I. 2002.

Science as Culture 11, no. 4: 459 79. Houston, J, . and J. Turner. 2001. Developing collaborative solutions to the aging aircraft avionics problem through technology roadmapping.

Science, Technology and Human Values 3, no. 5: 559 81. Nelson, R. R, . and S g. Winter. 1982.

A sociology of prospective techno-science, ed. N. Brown, B. Rappert and A. Webster, 43 64.

Prospective structures of science and science policy. In Innovation, science, and institutional change: A research handbook, ed. J. Hage and M. Meeus, 369 90.

Oxford: Oxford university Press. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 782 H. van Lente Van Lente, H,

Social Studies of Science 18, no. 3: 483 513. Williams, R, . and Sorensen, K. H. 2002.


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These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.

and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.

In 2005, he was a visiting researcher at the Manchester Business school, University of Manchester. His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation.

Administrative Science Quarterly 2, no. 4: 409 43. Dixit, A k, . and R. S. Pindyck. 1994.

Administraativ Science Quarterly 17, no. 3: 313 27. Eisenhardt, K. M. 1989. Building theories from case studies research.

Science and technology roadmaps. IEEETRANSACTIONS on Engineeringmanagement 48, no. 2: 132 43. Lawrence, P. R, . and J. W. Lorsch. 1967.

Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 7, no. 2: 139 68. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 796 R. Vecchiato Mendonça, S m. P. Cunha, J. Kaivo-oja,


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and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21. Berg, P m. Leinonen, V. Leivo, and J. Pihlajamaa. 2002.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52. Cagnin, C.,M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, and R. Barré

Academy of Marketing Science Review 2000, no. 4: 1 16. Holliday, C. O.,Jr, S. Schmidheiny,

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31. Kwak, Y. H, . and C. W. Ibbs. 2002.

American Behavioral Scientist 47, no. 6: 740 65. Loveridge, D. 1999. On sustainability. http://phps. portals. mbs. ac. uk/Denisloveridge (accessed June 2012,


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and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.

Computational and Information sciences (CIS), Engineering sciences (ES), Electronics and Photonics (EP), Materials Science and Technology (MST),

and Pulsed Power Sciences (PP). The LDRD process occurs annually at Sandia, starting early each spring.

Year Year Year Year Year Year PIA PI PI Author Source Text Text Text Text Abstract Text a PI=principal investigator.

The two largest perceived overlaps were between CIS and the Engineering sciences (ES) and Materials Science and Technology (MST) areas,

it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.

Vis. 2001 (2001) 23 30.5 K. W. Boyack, B. N. Wylie, G. S. Davidson, Domain visualization using Vxinsight for science and technology management, J. Am.

A gene expression map for Caenorhabditis elegans, Science 293 (2001) 2087 2092.11 K. W. Boyack, Mapping knowledge domains:

Nabeel Rahal is a business intelligence researcher and analyst in the Business Development and Corporate Partnerships Center at Sandia National Laboratories.


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and experimenter), and the wider social settings (e g. geographical, organisational, political, economic, and ethical). In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.

Service Science and Business network: strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.

In order to create the Service Science and Business (SSB) network, foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process.

During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.

potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.

It roadmapped the potential for a novel development trajectory in an RTO (VTT) and it enhanced the organisational capacities of adopting a novel service science approach.

and enhanced capacities for the creation of new knowledge in an emerging service science network. It also endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research in Finland and in Europe.

to establish and strengthen VTT's organisational identity as a novel‘player'in service science. Thus, it fostered the formation of an anticipatory culture,

Notes on contributors Toni Ahlqvist is a senior scientist at VTT. Currently, he works as a postdoctoral researcher at the Academy of Finland.

His current research focusses on socio-spatial transformations induced by science, technology, and innovation policies. He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,

and socio-technical change. Minna Halonen is a research scientist at VTT. Her research focusses on foresight and socio-technical change

Annele Eerola is a principal scientist at VTT. Her research focusses on the links between foresight knowledge, corporate strategy, and innovation policy.

Sirkku Kivisaari works as a senior scientist at VTT. Her educational background is in business management.

Johanna Kohl is a senior scientist and a team leader in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.

Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT. Her current research interests are especially in sustainable energy solutions at the society.

Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 178 90. Ahola, J.,T. Ahlqvist, M. Ermes, J. Myllyoja,

International Journal of Quality and Service Sciences 2, no. 1: 128 45. Heracleous, L, . and C. D. Jacobs. 2008.

Science and technology roadmaps. IEEETRANSACTIONS on Engineeringmanagement 48, nos. 1 2: 132 43. Könnölä, T.,T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari,


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btechnology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools.

Newand Emerging science andtechnologies; Tech Mining; nanotechnology; dye-sensitised solar cells, technology intelligence 1. Introduction New and Emerging science and Technologies(‘NESTS')are studied increasingly because of their potentially important‘emerging applications'.

'However, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.

These include innovation system modelling, text mining of Science, Technology & Innovation(‘ST&I')information resources, trend analyses, actor analyses,

FTA increasingly includes science-based technologies with less orderly developmental trajectories (cf. Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004;

plus patent analyses has contributed to science and technology studies for decades (cf. Van Raan 1988. With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records

This can help researchers and research managger understand the‘research landscape'to identify what has already been researched heavily

Today's NESTS are more apt for incorporating science-based advances (e g. biotechnologies and nanotechnologies),

'Some researchers look into what kind of innovation transfer is most effective (e g. Liu, Tang, and Zhu 2008;

Web of Science (WOS), EI Compendex, Derwent World Patent Index (DWPI), and Factiva. First, we generated direct DSSC technical terms.

4104 documents (including 3134 articles) appearing in the Science Citation Index (SCI) of WOS (fundamental research emphasis;

'Engagement of our collaborating solar cell researchers helped distinguish the more important elements. Review of the TDS by several knowledgeable persons helped tune this simple conceptualisation. 4. 2. Profile R&d (Step C) This activity draws heavily on bibliometric

which they appear overlaid on a base map of science. 3 This illustrates that global DSSC research involves an extensive range of research fields concentrated in the Materials Science and Chemistry macro-disciplines.

The US National science Foundation (NSF) shows forth on 42 of 1691 publications since 2009. The swiss NSF accounts for 35 of some 41 papers with Swiss funding;

Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 851 Figure 4. DSSC science overlay map.

the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science & Technology (AIST Japan), Uppsala University (Sweden),

and Imperial College of Science, Technology&medicine (the University of London); National Taiwan University lags with 817, followed by the Korean Institute of Science

& Technology with 1013 cites; and three others have 1330 to 1717 cites (to their many publications.

9. 5 Korean Institute of Science & Technology 1. 9 5. 1 6. 3 8. 2 Korea University 2. 3 10.3 6

our collaborratin material science doctoral student helped the social science organisers identify and encourage participation by two professors and four doctoral students with expertise in nanomateriials organic solar cells,

and steps can be generalisable. 2. See Appendix 1 forwos search term. 3. These science overlay maps have been described elsewhere (Leydesdorff and Rafols 2009;

or to make your own science overlay maps, visit www. interdisciplinaryscience. net or www. idr. gatech. edu/.4. DSSCS were reported first there in a hugely cited 1991 article (O'Regan and Gratzel 1991);

Tingting Ma is a Phd candidate in Management Science and Engineering, Beijing Institute of technology of China.

Her specialty is science and technology management particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment. She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics.

Alan L. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross, GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering,

He is pursuing ways to exploit science and technology information to generate and visualise intelligence on emerging technologies.

Her specialty is science and technology management, particularly the study of technology forecasting and assessment. She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics.

References Cagnin, C.,M. Keenan, R. Honston, F. Scapolo, and R. Barré, eds. 2008. Future-oriented technology analysis:

Science 187: 707 13. Foxon, T. J.,R. Gross, A. Chase, J. Howes, A. Arnall,

A global map of science based on the ISI subject categories. Journal of the American Society for Information science and Technology 60, no. 2: 348 62.

Is science becoming more interdisciplinary? Measuring and mapping six research fields over time. Scientometrics 81, no. 3: 719 45.

Science overlay maps: A new tool for research policy and library management. Journal of the American Society for Information science & Technology 61, no. 9: 1871 87.

Forecasting innovation pathways for new and emerging science & technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change, doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2011.06.004.

Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 517 38.

Handbook of quantitative studies of science & technology. Dordrecht: North Holland. http://www. cwts. nl/.

In Science and technology policy, ed. J. Haberer, 153 75. Lexington: Lexington Books. Appendix 1. WOS DSSC search terms No.


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methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.

Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.

and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.

Science and technology policy are discussed often including the creation of values in society, social or economic conditions for their promotion,

In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.

10.1108/14636681311310105 Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada are based at the National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo, Japan.

Since 1996, science and technology policy has been carried out under the Science and Technology Basic Plans which are formulated every five years.

calling for the fruits of science and technology to contribute toward addressing global or national challenges.

solving global or national issues through the effective application of science and technology. In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out,

B the fusion of several areas in science and technology; B collaboration with the humanities and social science;

and B the promotion of science and technology viewed as an integral part of social-system reformation.

This indicates that science and technologies are becoming interrelated and need to be converged, and converging technologies focus on human performance or the social or economic dimension (National science Foundation, 2002,2005;

European commission, 2004. It is expected that converging technologies will trigger innovation and lead to the solution of social issues in the future.

Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.

Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.

The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan (see Figure 1) focuses on science and technology,

Considering the relation between science and technology and society along the lines of science in and for society, it is necessary to have a broad view from both the technological and social aspects.

The exercise was conducted by the National Institute of Science and Technology policy from 2008 to 2010.

It started with a discussion on social goals and their relation to science and technology, considering changes on a global or national scale.

Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.

is to identify the expectations for science and technology. The preliminary discussion was conducted to identify the missions of science

and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.

''They reviewed the mission of science and technology, and selected 24 priority issues (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2009).

The results of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration in other words, science and technology to be embedded in society as a socialized system.

With the discussion above and the dramatic changes occurring inside and outside Japan as a backdrop,

and it has been used in Japan as a technique for large-scale questionnaires targeted at experts in science and technology since 1971.

The Delphi survey in the 9th Foresight exercise aims to outline the future prospect of development in science

and what kind of science and technology will be expected to contribute to realize them. Participants included citizens, researchers, business persons,

and public officials from each region. This study aims to provide an initial platform on which the people in each region deepen their own independent discussions about their future vision.

and the region's place in the era of globalization. 3. Integrative study 3. 1 Advantage of combination A good public investment in research and development needs an overall picture of facets of science

A combination of the outputs from the Delphi survey and scenario building has the possibility of providing a balanced whole picture of science

and technology because they are considered complementary to each other also in regard to perspectives of development in science and technology.

Information on key areas from the Delphi survey is added to the map to discuss the overall view of science

The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.

For such themes with less matching, an out-of-the-box discussion is needed on the contributions that science

where science and technology are expected to make great contribution because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely.

ICT and infrastructure) and sociological science (e g. lifestyle and management), and it is noteworthy that they are arranged in the central part of the map,

value-adding and market creation 10-G Unpopularity of science and engineering, human resource problem,

the approach employed here aims to take a comprehensive view of facets of science and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen

Areas related to space and ocean sciences and materials science are positioned near the center and show no direct relation to the two potentialities of innovation:

The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields.

which shows that the comprehensive view of science and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science

and technology foresight clearly should define an image of the future and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.

and scenario to get a whole picture of science and technology toward the desired future. Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.

Driving Towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs, Executive Office of the President, National Economic Council, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.

Government of Japan (2001), The 2nd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.

Government of Japan (2006), The 3rd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.

Government of Japan (2011), The 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.

Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.

National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2009),‘Emerging fields in science and technology for the 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan'',Research Material No. 168, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.

National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight'',NISTEP Report No. 140-142, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.

National science Foundation (2002),‘Converging technologies for improving human performance'',National science Foundation, Arlington VA. National science Foundation (2005),‘Managing nano-bio-info-cogno innovations:

converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''''Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62-89.

Corresponding author Yoshiko Yokoo can be contacted at: yokoo@nistep. go. jp PAGE 18 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:


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