Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
the FTA COMMUNITY eponymously and in practice, takes as its anchor point the role of technology and by implication the conduct and consequences of research and innovation.
is more likely to see Grand challenges as an opportunity for innovation and new markets. An important question to ask is
Their application to innovation is increasingly taking into account the user perspective and the need for social shaping.
and to take us closer to the Holy grail of anticipated disruptive innovations and events. The next two or three years promise to be a critical period for the challenged practices of FTA,
Plenary Address to European commission Innovation Convention, 2011.8 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper and F. Scapolo op cit. 9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper
936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM
He is active in policy advice to governments and business and as Vice-president for Research and Innovation at the University of Manchester.
design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory. The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.
De Moor et al. develop the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight ''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes.
For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
On the one hand the authors explore the use of FTA in the context innovation networks and innovation management.
At the same time the authors present an approach to adapt FTA practice to the changing nature of innovation and thereby to the requirements of a specific application.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and‘‘networked Foresight''.''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
In addition the Minister of finance and the Minister for Science, Technology and Innovation participated. From April 2005 to April 2006, the Globalisation Council held 15 meetings.
‘Progress, Innovation and Cohesion Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy'31. The Globalisation Strategy had 14 focus areas.
The task of coining out the priorities that was identified in the catalogue was given to the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI.
Innovation and competitiveness Denmark's competitiveness Innovation The public sector of the future Knowledge and education Education, learning and competence development What works?
in interaction with env. factors 0 19 Innovation and competitiveness 0 10 The public sector of the future 0 15 Knowledge and education What works?
Copenhagen, 2000.31 Progress, Innovation, and Cohesion. Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy Summary, The Danish Government, Copenhagen, 2006.32 OECD-DASTI Horizon scan, 2007.33 Teknologisk Institut, Evaluering af Forsk2015.
Et prioriteringsgrundlag for strategisk forskning, Danish Ministry for Science, Technology and Innovation, Copenhagen, 2008p.91. P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 17
Another notable result from the local level case studies is that the respondents did not perceive the potential added value of foresight studies for policy innovation (see also, the conclusion by 26.
and innovation are encouraged and change is embraced rather than opposed. They also had the impression that future-oriented policy-making is by its nature a kind of well-informed policy-making.
A Study of Stakeholder participation in an Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policy in The netherlands, LEMMA Publishers, Utrecht, 2004.15 P. A. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
Hence, the further development of transnational research and innovation collaboration benefits from experiences with the vertical coordination of multilayered research and innovation systems.
The innovation roadmaps 24 highlight the main milestones of innovation activities (i e. research and development, management and policy actions) which are needed to achieve a desired vision.
and (v) innovation, competence development and education. The aim was to identify relevant research topics and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
The latter also asked for innovation ideas for IMS and required changes to have realised these. All these activities produced a total of 754 research issues to be explored further
Only after a debate on the nature of innovation and on how to solicit creative future ideas did partners achieve a common understanding and,
and innovation (RI) could encourage sustainable manufacturing. It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis and Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 1 232.24 T. Ko nno la, Innovation roadmap:
pro-actively, innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems. 3 For further information:
and a continuing reassessment of relationships with the private sector and the innovation-related Knowledge Economy agenda (e g. through third stream activities.
Towards Innovation Foresight: Two empirical case studies on future TV experiences for/by users Katrien De Moor a b, 1,,
and influenced the increased emphasis on principles such as connectedness, interaction and knowledge sharing in R&d and innovation management.
Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
and introduces the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) in this respect. IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
It is argued that a better introduction of future anticipation in inclusive innovation processes could enhance the input of users in innovation
it has propagated undoubtedly (re the belief that successful innovation requires openness, interaction and knowledge sharing. The nature of innovation in this new era is fundamentally different from the earlier technology push
and market pull approaches due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of systems, more distributed nature of knowledge creation and innovation,
and finally the recognition of the close relationship between Science, Technology and Society due to the limits to the‘plasticity'of the society,
development and innovation 7. Users are seen as important sources of knowledge and co-shapers of the innovation trajectory (cf.
However, in inclusive processes aimed at enhancing users'input into innovation, notions of the future and anticipation often tend to be introduced poorly
and discusses the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) 11 in this respect. It is argued that IF could serve as an interactive,
'IF is a basis for stimulating a future-oriented innovation dialogue that enables different types of users
and constraints of traditional market innovation research and enhance users'input into innovation. The remainder of the paper is organised as follows:
in the next section, the Innovation Foresight concept is introduced and contextualised. Thereupon, the methodological setup and results from two empirical studies in which current and future users were involved closely in the exploration,
Finally, Section 4 discusses a number of experiences and conclusions from the empirical studies in the light of the proposed shift towards more Innovation Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes. 2. Towards Innovation Foresight (IF?
A number of concepts and approaches were proposed, such as Constructive technology assessment (CTA), Participatory Design and Participatory Innovation 13,14.
CTA, for example, with its aim of broadening design and development processes and early interaction between the relevant technology and societal actors, can be considered an initial attempt at Innovation Foresight.
Development and Innovation (RDI) activities. Similarly, Participatory Innovation sought to empower people and to create an environment for user innovation in a broad sense 13.
In spite of the terminological differences, a common, explicit focus is put on dialogue, co-production, societal learning, joint agenda-building, etc.
The benefits of such user involvement and interaction are discussed widely in the literature. For instance, active and continuous user involvement have been said to lead to‘unique and valuable ideas for future development'15, to more‘socially and environmentally friendly technologies',to an increased‘quality of innovations'16
and even to societal democratisation 8, 16. The term‘hybrid fora'has also been coined in this respect.
improved acceptance and social embedding of technology, broadly supported decision-making on innovation'.'At a more tangible level, it has been argued that active involvement of users helps to create a good fit between the needs, expectations,
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 40 Although in theory, such inclusive processes aim to strengthen the role and input of users into innovation,
An integrated approach towards Innovation Foresight is thus called for. The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics.
These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty which result in failing innovations;
overaan underestimations of technological and social developments, and unanticipated use; the need for accurate insight into and anticipation of user's needs and expectations;
and the emerging necessity of diagnosing the changing innovation landscape to address these issues for‘Foresightful Innovation.'
'Such Foresightful innovation requires investigations into systems through (i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
and their social relationships, which can affect and be affected by the Foresight process, and (iii) investigation into the formal and informal networks and procedures,
the concept of Innovation Foresight (IF) 11 has been introduced as an interactive, participatory and forward-looking way to engage in the‘social shaping of technology'.
and informing decisionmakking strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory''11. Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises,
In a next research phase, these potential Lead User-ideas were evaluated by a group of 15 Flemish experts in the field of digital TV (consisting of content managers and innovation managers from Flemish broadcasters
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
and limitations to user involvement in the earliest innovation phases and the poor or even entirely lacking introduction of the future as component in traditional user innovation research,
this paper has proposed a shift towards Innovation Foresight. IF aims to go beyond the dominant‘here and now'focus in traditional user research
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
Secondly, it would be relevant to further investigate the link between Innovation Foresight and the Living Lab concept which was mentioned already in 11.
Living Labs 32 are systemic policy instruments that facilitate user-driven and social innovation in a natural, more ecologically valid research context, reflecting real life situations and conditions.
Why‘open innovation'is old wine in new bottles, International Journal of Innovation Management 13 (2009) 715 736.3 C. Cagnin, D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, FTA
2005.8 E. Von Hippel, Democratizing Innovation, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2005.9 R. Williams, D. Edge, The social shaping of Technology research Policy 25 (1996) 865
899.10 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight 7 (2005) 31 47.11 K. De Moor, O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight for living labs, in:
Proceedings of Yeditepe International research Conference on Foresight (Yircof 2009), Istanbul, Turkey, 2009.12 O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond, in:
Presentation at Vienna University of Technology, 27,september 2010. 13 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory Innovation a research agenda, in:
Lente, The Sociology of expectations in Science and Technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (2006) 285 298.18 P. den Hertog, R. Smits, The Co-evolution of Innovation theory, Innovation Practice
, Investigating user typologies and their relevance within a living lab-research approach for ICT-Innovation, in:
A Qualitative Study on the Domestication of Interactive Digital Television in Flanders,(Unpublished doctoral thesis), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2011.32 A. Følstad, Living Labs for Innovation and Development of Information
They affirm that networked learning enables a process of innovation and institutional adaptation that is participatory, interactive and in
and innovation 39. More importantly, the system outlined in Fig. 2 addresses all limitations encountered both in research
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
Exploring the use of futures research in innovation networks Patrick van der Duin a b, 1,,*Tobias Heger c, Maximilian D. Schlesinger d a Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, The netherlands b Futures research & Trendwatching at the Fontys University
of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
, Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin, Germany 1. Introduction Both innovation and futures research have been identified as being crucial for the success of companies.
The connection between futures research and innovation has been established well (e g. by Cooper 1, Tidd 2) and the use of futures research within individual companies has been studied on various occasions.
Innovation networks Futures research Foresight Networked foresight Open innovation A b s T R A c T Along with the rise of the now popular‘open'paradigm in innovation management,
networks have become a common approach to practicing innovation. Foresight could potentially greatly benefit from resources that become available when the knowledge base increases through networks.
This article seeks to investigate how innovation networks and foresight are related to what extent networked foresight activities exist
For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework and applied to three cases.
1 The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Innovation-Oriented Research program‘Integral Product Creation and Realization (IOP IPCR)' of The netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation.
and started to cooperate with others with regard to innovation 12. A way to practice open innovation are‘innovation networks'.
'Under this term, cooperations organized as inter-organizational networks with the goal to innovate collaboratively are understood.
The link between futures research and innovation networks led us to investigate the following questions:(1) How is futures research related to the context of‘open innovation'in general,
and to‘innovation networks'in particular?(2) Do activities that could be named‘networked foresight'exist?(3) How are these activities currently conducted?
by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) and by analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope,
first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research; second, by explicating the link of futures research to innovation networks.
Then, the approach for the analysis is outlined, the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained.
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
van der Duin et al. 16 distinguished between four different generations of innovation management: 1. Technology push:
and feedback and feed-forward linkages are established. 4. Innovation in systems or networks: innovation processes are distributed among different organizations
The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1
networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
In fact, substantial efforts were put into keeping the results of innovation a secret. They were shared rarely,
The last two decades have seen an increase in collaborations between different organizations driven by at least five trends in corporate innovation:
High innovation speed 33.3. Shortening product life cycles 34.4. Spread of knowledge in the value chain and concentration on core competencies 35,36. 5. Business models that integrate across various industries 9, 37.
fast technological change and innovation speed to corporate foresight through the necessity of companies to renew their strategic resources as a result of these factors.
and as an instrument to increase the number of new innovations the second of the key roles described above.
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
Second, past studies on foresight, collaboration in innovation and open innovation reveal the link between foresight and collaborative innovation,
However, systematic research about futures research in innovation networks as one form to embrace open innovation is lacking.
In this paper, this relationship is investigated by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model to three cases. Moreover, activities observable in the three cases are Table 1 Generations of innovation management and futures research (based on van der Duin 3
see also Daheim and Uerz 23. Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
4 Innovation in systems or networks Networked foresight P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role.
and innovation networks and assessing the use of networked foresight activities this study uses a multi-case design.
and its innovation partner Deltares were interviewed in addition to analyzing key documents. For analyzing the future orientation
and openness of the three networks we applied the Cyclic Innovation Model as an analytical framework.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
principles of the Cyclic Innovation Model are (1) that innovating is predominantly a cyclic interaction between different actors who exchange knowledge
and information in the‘innovation arena'and (2) that every well-functioning innovation process should be based on one or more images of the future 47,48.
which structures the partners involved in the innovation network and links them in a cyclic way.
since it comprises a direct link between futures research and innovation. Level 1 of the CIM is illustrated in Fig. 1. This future-oriented part of the CIM consists of four components:
which function as a kind of‘Leitmotiv'for all innovation-related activities. It is fed by the organization's internal ambitions for the future
Since the use of futures research in innovation networks is not yet mature it can be expected that the application of the CIM to the cases reveals that the focal networks have not explicated
Thus, RWS is continuously searching for innovations in their Fig. 1. Level 1 of the Cyclic Innovation Model:
the connection between innovation and the future. For details see 48. P. van der Duin et al./
One of the RWS's programs, the Water INNOVATION (WINN) program, aimed at detecting, exploring and developing innovations in the Dutch water infrastructure and management.
The program had two main slogans:‘‘‘‘To inspire, to challenge, to do''and‘‘Long-term thinking, short-term action''.
and the overall manager to define a set of‘themes'that together should constitute the vision for the innovations developed in WINN.
from an initially government-internal planning program to an externally supported innovation program. This program also integrated external parties starting in 2007 to a new innovation program that is facilitated
and managed by RWS but draws heavily from external knowledge starting in 2010.4.1.4. Leadership WINN operated as part of a government organization.
(2) establishing a common understanding of innovation,‘openness'and involved risks, and (3) coordinating partner expectations.
and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current
and new product development with expertise in innovation management, project management, and IT infrastructure. 2) All the founding partners had a strong international focus.
, becoming the leader in ICT innovation) as stated by the network partners emerges as the starting point for the network.
, creating a highly visible innovation center in Europe in the ICT sector. The internal ambitions of the partners involved being successful in international markets
and potential new products and services within WINN Singular activity 1. 4 Series of future workshops Determined relevant societal developments and innovation needs that the activities originating from WINN give rise to Project 5 In 2008
The full potential of networked innovation projects can only be exploited if complementary capabilities are bundled together.
Also, the risk and investments involved in taking innovations to the market can be shared. Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
and EICT as an innovation network is addressed not within the foresight activities of the innovation management unit.
EIT ICT Labs The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) is the latest attempt of the European commission (EC) to increase European innovation performance.
research and innovation. So-called Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) were to‘‘become key drivers of sustainable growth and competitiveness across Europe through world-leading innovation''52.
Each KIC had to bring together three independent partners from at least three different EU member states, with at least one partner from higher education and one private company 53.
and other studies Program 2. 2 Business field exploration Explores predefined business fields with various innovation management methods, i e.,
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 69 Innovation Agenda (SIA), reviewed and revised with support of the KICS once they were established.
and the internal ambitions of multiple companies resulted in the shared vision of an integrated organization designed to drive innovation in ICT that would benefit from the different yet complementary assets and resources of industrial and academic partners.
The EIT ICT Labs envision their operations to substantially improve various fields related to innovation in ICT:
and higher education. 4. 3. 2. Process model In the innovation framework instruments for sharing, exchanging and developing knowledge were created,
2) Innovation catalysts that aim at supporting existing activities methodological. They receive direct funding from the EIT ICT Labs
, an innovation radar 56 and best-practice benchmarking 57. The innovation radar identifies external trends
and developments in preselected fields, provides images of the future, identifies innovation opportunities and potential for commercialization,
and creates cohesion within the ICT Labs about current trends. Experts of the partner organizations provide input.
and find innovation opportunities. Thus it is aimed explicitly at establishing open innovation structures and an intraorganizzationa knowledge exchange between the network partners.
Thom provides an overview of the EIT ICT Labs Innovation Radar in 58. The best-practice benchmarking activity aims at identifying best practices for (1) disseminating innovations among the partners,
(2) overcoming innovation barriers,(3) meeting the expectations of the various partners, and (4) recommending practices to improve the activities within the network.
A project team with members from education, research and industry and from several partner organizations identifies
and support the collaborative innovation efforts 57.4.3.3. Transition path For this case, a transition path has yet to develop due to its relatively short existence of three years at this point.
the aforementioned innovation radar helps ensure that the EIT ICT Labs and the partners are engaged in domains that will drive the future.
and an annual selection process (quality assurance) add to the aforementioned foresight instruments innovation radar and best-practice benchmarking.
Interview partners from the program confirmed that the innovation teams consisting of members from the governmental agency Rijkswaterstaat,
and therefore Rijkswaterstaat as its agency was interested in unique onetime innovations whereas companies were interested more in exploiting and diffusing innovations to a broader market.
Also Rijkswaterstaat was interested primarily in innovations that addressed societal challenges while companies inherently seek to satisfy shareholders,
thus predominantly aiming for business performance. Table 5 Networked foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs. No.
and research institutes Program 3. 7 Innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT
and explore innovations for Dutch water management. While the process model was adopted to integrate multiple parties as well,
but also by the many new innovations that originate from WINN, such as‘‘The sand motor'',Energy from water,
First, external participants of WINN were chosen because of their background in innovation and their apparently open mindset.
and vision were developed based on the aim to create a highly visible innovation center in ICT in Europe.
when it comes to conducting and supporting collaborative innovation among its partners, the image of the future,
However, other large innovation networks that Fig. 2. Visualization of WINN managed by Rijkswaterstaat in terms of its openness and network orientation.
, Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS), the European Alliance for Innovation and the EIT KICS (case 3). Thus, the image of the future for EICT seems to be need in of an update. 8 The partner structure of EICT of a research institute, a university
innovation management and IT appears to be suitable to perform collaborative innovation activities in selected topics.
and IT knowledge and to provide the suitable tools for the early steps of innovation from topic identification to execution of large-scale R&d projects.
Thus, EICT appears to be well equipped to support collaborative innovation projects, including networked foresight. Fig. 3 visualizes EICT in regard to its openness
Beyond that, collaborative innovation requires a change in the mindset of the people within the organizations.
In contrast, strategic guidance, the assessment and repositioning of the innovation portfolio and vision creation are limited mostly to the network itself.
(&) & Contract partners 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar & Contract partners 2. 4 Working groups
, the innovation radar, are used to provide the basis for the process model of the network especially
(organizations) 3. 6 Technology transfer program & (&) Open (organizations) 3. 7 Innovation radar & (&) Open (organizations) 3. 8 Annual selection process (&) & Closed network
When recalling the application of the Cyclic Innovation Model to the three cases at least three issues are noticeable:
and should be used to develop a suitable process model toward an envisioned future of an innovation network.
When combining the differences in networked foresight with further research on collaboration in innovation at least two known‘process archetypes of open innovation'are observable in the cases:
and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
first, the close connection and analogies of innovation management and futures research hint at networked foresight as the logical next generation of futures research;
second, the close connection between foresight, collaborative innovation and open innovation suggests that networked foresight is already being practiced,
The application of the Cyclic Innovation Model shows that the envisioned and practiced openness of the three networks differs substantially.
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