and technology (S&t) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization,
and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering,
and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes.
Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross-compared
Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity
Competitive intelligence is also important to retain a dynamic understanding of the technology trajectories of the surrounding industrial environment (Nelson, 1997.
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
Given the importance of investing in the right technology for companies and staying abreast of technological change, acquiring an advanced understanding of technology and its potential market shifting effects,
competitive technology intelligence (CTI) has been generated and popularized (Calof and Smith, 2010). In general, CTI is competitive intelligence within the R&d arena (Herring, 1993;
and technology (S&t) activities in time to permit appropriate responses; and 3. to anticipate and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.
A new integrated domain strategic intelligence and foresight on technology (SIFT), a combination of CTI and Strategic technology foresight (STF) was proposed recently by Calof and Smith (2010).
where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
During the input phase or preparatory phase of many different foresight activities, technology or research topic mapping by reviewing existing foresight activity is becoming more and more popular.
''which is a large-scale technological foresight study that was designed to benchmark current information society technologies (ISTS) and develop strategies for future ISTS
In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry
The mapping dimension of EFMN, especially for the science and technology field and socioeconomic sectors which the collected foresight activity explicitly address, are fingerprinted based on the Frascati Manual classification and the NACE code classification,
The IPC, established by the Strasbourg Agreement of 1971, provides for a hierarchical system of language-independent symbols for the classification of patents and utility models according to the different areas of technology to
, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan The Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of korea Ministry of Science and Technology agency or organization responsible for the foresight activity Science and Technology foresight Center, National Institute
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
Patents are oriented towards the legal protection of technologies and therefore the classification of patents is based on technologies or products that use specific technologies (Schmoch, 2008).
There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
Also, patent documents are used widely as a source for technology forecasting, CTI and for analysis of technology convergence (Kayal, 1999;
statistics regarding the code or advanced analysis can be done easily to compare development or the trajectory among different technology domains.
as a classification system for the state-of-the-art technology, provides a route for linking mid-to long-term technology,
as described in the technology vision of a Delphi topic, to the present or near future technological trajectory.
which the technology is ensured to be feasibility, while Delphi topics describe a technology that can be in any stage between research exploration to commercialization,
with the description being relatively short. In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities.
especially the technology/product term should be extracted, and the extracted or identified keywords are mapped for their corresponding IPC code.
The more specific the technology/product keyword described in the Delphi topic the lower level of code (i e. more digits of the code) can be given to these keywords.
Select topics related to sustainable energy based on the original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by domain experts Step 3 Identify the technology/product keywords
or above) for these technology/product related terms in each of the Delphi topics analyzed Step 5 Distinguish with the identified IPC codes as a source
or an application of technology Step 6 Convert these IPC codes to the WIPO technology classification based on the WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table Step 7 Map the technology distribution
WIPO technology classification and demonstrate by a matrix table or social network analysis PAGE 58 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 For converting
and aggregating to the 35 WIPO technology classifications in Step 6, IPC subclass/main-group level mapping
To get more information on technology interaction from the Delphi topic descriptions, especially for the identification of technology linkages or causal effects,
the keywords and their corresponding IPC codes are distinguished between source/application technologies in Step 5. In Step 6,
In addition, Table IV shows part of the WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table utilized during Step 6. After each Delphi topic is mapped to the IPC code
and aggregated to the WIPO technology field, the linkage or interaction between the technologies can be demonstrated by a matrix table,
or can be visualized in advance by social network analysis. 2. 3. 3 Examples of Delphi topic mapping.
especially from keyword extraction, IPC code mapping, source/application technology identification, and mapped result aggregation to WIPO technology classification.
The Delphi topic in the example is from Japan, and involves‘‘Polymer electrolyte fuel cells for automobile use''.
''By using the IPC subclass code for mapping, the IPC Table III WIPO technology classification No.
Field 1 Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy 2 Audiovisual technology 3 Telecommunications 4 Digital communication 5 Basic communication processes 6 Computer technology 7 IT methods
for management 8 Semiconductors 9 Optics 10 Measurement 11 Analysis of biological materials 12 Control 13 Medical technology 14 Organic fine chemistry
metallurgy 21 Surface technology, coating 22 Micro-structure and nanotechnology 23 Chemical engineering 24 Environmental technology 25 Handling 26 Machine tools 27 Engines,
the source/application technology for the Delphi topics are identified through causal effect analysis, namely the source IPC code and the application IPC code are distinguished by the judgment of a domain expert.
the IPC codes identified are converted into the WIPO technology classification as part of the Concordance Table shown in above Table IV.
Table IV Examples of WIPO IPC technology concordance table Field IPC codes 1. Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy F21#,H01b, H01c, H01f
which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,
South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
The summary results of the mapping for technology interaction prospected by Japan, South korea and China is shown in Figure 2. The y axis denotes the source technology
and the x axis denotes the application technology. Interactions between source and application technology that can be identified in Delphi topics in either the Japan,
South korea or China reports are labeled with symbols. Different symbol represent different meanings. For example,‘‘O''means the technology interaction can be identified simultaneously in Japan (JP), South korea (KR) and China (CN),
'''means the technology interaction can be identified only in Japan (JP) and China (CN), and so on. Interactions within the technology field are shown not in Figure 2. By viewing the union result of the mapping from the application technology side, conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is a hot technology application before the year 2020, where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management),
12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology
), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 31 (Mechanical elements) and 35 (Civil engineering.
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) is prospected also by these three countries as second hot application technology before the year 2020,
where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32
(Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering). The third hot application technology before the year 2020 is technology 32 (Transport),
and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
) Topics Ratio (percent) Topics Ratio (percent) Japan 26 74.3 6 17.1 3 8. 6 South korea 75 98.7 1 1. 3
0 0 China 83 100 0 0 0 0 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 61 source technologies are derived from technologies 1
(Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 12 (Control), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering.
From the source technology side, technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is the hottest source technology for application to other technologies before 2020,
where the possible application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 3 (Telecommunications), 8 (Semiconductors), 10 (Measurement), 13 (Medical technology), 20 (Materials
Technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is prospected also as a hot source technology, especially by South korea,
and the corresponding application technologies comprise technologies 3 (Telecommunications), 6 (Computer technology), 13 (Medical technology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32
Also, technology 23 (Chemical engineering) is prospected as a source technology for other seven technologies, comprising technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 13 (Medical technology), 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy
), 21 (Surface technology, coating) and 24 (Environmental technology). When technology 24 (Environmental technology) is as source technology,
the prospected application technologies will be technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering).
The overlapping result for technology interaction mapped by the Delphi topics from the three countries can also be seen in Figure 2. The overlapped interactions identified among the three countries include source technology 12 (Control) to application technology
1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), technology 15 (Biotechnology) to technology 1 Figure 2 Summary result of the mapping in three countries PAGE 62 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Electrical machinery
, apparatus, energy), technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), technology 35 (Civil engineering) to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
and technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) to technology 32 (Transport. The keywords extracted from the content of the Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping are summarized in Table VI. 3. 1. 2 Mapping result of Japan.
From the mapping result of Japan, nine Delphi topics of the total 26 Delphi topics (34.6 percent), show interaction within single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 17 Delphi topics, and the interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) with a tool named Nodexl 1 in Figure 3
. If more than one interaction can be deduced from a single Delphi topic content, more than one linkage will be given.
A total of 20 interactions were identified from these 17 Delphi topics. The Delphi topics that show only interaction within a single technology are demonstrated by a loop symbol.
Table VI Keywords of Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping in the technology interaction Source technology Application technology Country Key words in Delphi topics 12
(Control) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Energy management technology/electricity storage technology/efficiently use distributed generation;
new grid technology/micro grids/stability of distributed generation South korea Distributed electric power/solar power China Ultra-large scale/power system security and defense;
advanced and reliable distribution network and system technology for electricity; distributed power generation systems; next-generation SCADA technology;
heat, electricity, cooling cogeneration/building use 15 (Biotechnology) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Artificial photosynthesis technology/solar energy conversion efficiency;
technology for electric power generation/synthetic fuels manufacturing/gasification of biomass South korea Verified in vivo photosynthetic/organisms convert energy;
bio-energy/battery technology China Biofuel; biomass gasification power generation 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large capacity combined cycle power generation
/large scale gas turbines; micro cogeneration systems/residential use; ceramic micro gas turbines/thermal efficiency; ocean-thermal conversion/electric power generation South korea Cogeneration fuel cell/residential use;
ocean energy; very large (5mw) wind power generation equipment design; ocean energy/seawater desalination China Integrated gasification combined cycle 35 (Civil engineering) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large-area thin-film solar cells;
conversion efficiency South korea Solar and fuel cell power system China Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions; large and very large grid-connected/photovoltaic power plant development in desert 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) 32 (Transport) Japan Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is targeted the main application technology by other technologies before the year 2020. The source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental
technology), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering. The most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
The second most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
3. 1. 3 Mapping result of South korea. In South korea, 25 of the total 75 mapped Delphi topics (33.3 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 50 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 3. In total,
57 linkages are identified from these 50 Delphi topics. A shown in Figure 4, the technology interactions of the Delphi topics before the year 2020 are much more divergent.
From the application technology point of view, technology 1 (Electrical machinery apparatus, energy) receives technologies from technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 31 (Transport
) and 35 (Civil engineering), especially technologies 23 (Chemical engineering) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) show higher linkage with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) also shows as a hot application technology, the source technologies include technology 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 Figure 3 Technology
interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from Japan PAGE 64 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Civil engineering).
Technology 23 (Chemical engineering) shows higher linkages with technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry. Technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) can also be a source technology;
the application technologies comprise technologies 3 (Telecommunications), 6 (Computer technology), 13 (Medical technology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32 (Transport
), 34 (Other consumer goods) and 35 (Civil engineering. Technologies 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering) especially show higher linkages with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is also a hot source technology; the application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 3 (Telecommunications), 8 (Semiconductors), 10 (Measurement), 13 (Medical technology), 20 (Materials, metallurgy
), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) and 32 (Transport. The linkages are especially more intensive on technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 10 (Measurement) and 32 (Transport.
3. 1. 4 Mapping result of China. In China, 37 of the total 83 mapped Delphi topics (44.6 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 46 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 4. In total 50 linkages are identified from these 46 Delphi topics.
As shown in Figure 5, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is a hot application technology.
Source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry
polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) and 35 (Civil
Figure 4 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from South korea VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 65 engineering;
and 12 (Control) and 35 (Civil engineering) show especially higher linkages with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Another hot application technology is technology 35 (Civil engineering. The possible source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 25 (Handling) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines;
12 (Control) and 25 (Handling) reveal especially higher linkages. Technology 12 (Control) is a hot source technology in China.
The possible application technologies comprise technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering),
but technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) and 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) reveal higher linkages.
Another hot source technology is technology 23 (Chemical engineering. The application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy) and 24
(Environmental technology; technology 24 (Environmental technology) especially has more linkages with technology 23 (Chemical engineering. 3. 2 Mapping interactions across technologies from the top 25 percent important Delphi topics in each country Since the foresight results of these three countries were intended to be used for reference in priority setting
or in the R&d agenda setting process, it may therefore be strategically important to identify what kind of technologies are rated as important for these three countries;
this may provide a CTI value. Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
and the deduced linkages for the selected topics are demonstrated also by a directional social network analysis (SNA).
The analyzed results for Japan, South korea and China are demonstrated in Figures 6-8. In Figure 6 (Japan's result),
seven Delphi topics and ten linkages are identified. Most of the interactions are related to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, Figure 5 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from China PAGE 66
jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 energy. The important source technologies comprise technologies 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 24 (Environmental technology) and 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Technology for electric power generation and synthetic fuels manufacturing using the gasification of coal, biomass,
and waste'',Polymer electrolyte fuel cells for automobile use, ''and‘‘Large-area thin-film solar cells with a conversion efficiency of at least 20 percent''.
''Other linkages are source technology 24 (Environmental technology) to application technology 20 (Materials, metallurgy), or source technology 25 (Handling) to 31 (Mechanical elements).
Technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is interacted self. The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘CO2 recover, sequestration and storage technology'',Hydrogen supply infrastructure networks for fuel cell automobiles'',Geologic disposal technology for high-level radioactive waste,
''and‘‘Technology to drastically reduce waste through nuclear transformation of radionuclides in high-level nuclear waste''.
''In Figure 7 (South korea's result), 19 Delphi topics and 22 linkages are identified. One of the main focuses is technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) since many other source technologies will contribute to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) and simultaneously technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is also a means for application to other technologies. The source technologies contributing to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) comprise source technologies 12 (Control), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering),
while the content of the Delphi topics contain‘‘Distributed power generation with energy conversion efficiency of more than 40 percent and large-scale solar power in practical use'',
''‘The commercialization of high efficiency and ultra-low price thin film solar Figure 6 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from Japan
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 67 cells'',Solar and fuel cell power system in practical use,
''and‘‘Residential cogeneration fuel cells in practical use''.''The application technologies for source technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) comprise technologies 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32 (Transport), 34 (Other
consumer goods) and 35 (Civil engineering. Higher linkages are demonstrated in technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) to application technology 32 (Transport),
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Development of high energy density of the large battery materials for electric vehicles and various transportation use'',Fuel cell vehicles for practical use,
''and‘‘Hybrid power system with alternative energy in practical use''.''In the rest of the linkages, some technologies are interacted self,
examples being technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental technology) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines),
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Verify the principle of superconductivity at room temperature'',High-efficiency power generation equipment (efficiency 90 percent) commercialization,
''‘Development of distributed power technology with large-scale use of alternative energy supply'',Development of low-cost and high-purity hydrogen mass production Technology'development of zero emission power generation system
combined energy plant, ''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
and effectively recycle and reuse''.''Other cross-interacted technologies include source technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to application technology 10 (Measurement;
technologies 23 (Chemical engineering) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 13 (Medical technology; technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 20 (Materials, metallurgy;
and Figure 7 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from South korea PAGE 68 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013
technology 24 (Environmental technology) to technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines. The related topics contain‘‘Development of bio-information technology that can use Terahertz in biomedical operation,
''‘Development of simulation technology than can simulate the interaction of living organism with micro-plasma for medical equipment'',The ultra-high-temperature air-cooled nuclear reactors in practical use
which can be used to generate clean energy the economic mass production of hydrogen, ''and‘‘Maximization of nuclear reactor safety/economic in operation, optimization of the new nuclear reactor design and efficiency of monitoring/lowering the risk by optimization and actively use of information technology''.
''The mapping distribution of the Delphi topics of China shows that about half of the important topics are interacted self (Figure 8;
examples include technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 19 (Basic materials chemistry) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines.
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Large-capacity long-distance transmission of electricity'',Deep-sea oil and gas mining'',Coal (direct, indirect) liquefaction,
''‘Coal gasification by pressurized fluidized bed'',deep coal mining technology'',advanced million-kilowatt pressurized water reactor technology'',Nuclear safety and radiation safety'',Chinese
prototype of fast reactor nuclear power plant design and verification technology'',High level radioactive waste geologic disposal technologies,
''and‘‘MW level wind turbine and the key technologies of main components and industrialization, ''‘Advanced spent fuel reprocessing technology,
''and‘‘Heavy-duty gas turbine technology''.''Meanwhile, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is a hot application technology.
The possible cross-interacted source technologies come from source technology 12 (Control), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), and 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of these topics comprise‘‘Large scale network security and defense system for electricity'',Effective supercritical/ultra supercritical power generation technology'',Key Figure 8 Technology interactions across WIPO
technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from China VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 69 technology of solar cells,
''and‘‘Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions''.''In the rest of the linkages, technologies with cross interactions include source technology 23 (Chemical engineering) to application technology 24 (Environmental technology;
technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) to technology 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus; and technologies 12 (Control) and 25 (Handling) to technology 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Circulating fluidized bed flue gas desulfurization'',Coal gasification-based poly-generation technology'',Energy consumption analysis for construction and building environmental systems and energy saving optimization technology,
''and‘‘Low permeability reservoir to improve oil recovery''.''In summary, by mapping the important topics from the Delphi survey results of Japan, South korea and China,
differences in technology development focus or portfolio strategy can be identified. From Japan's result, technology development is focused more on using different source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
reflecting of the‘‘select ''and‘‘focus''technology strategy used in the 3rd Basic Plan on S&tof Japan.
South korea seems to be employing a different strategy; it focuses not only on possible source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
but also tries to explore the possibility for supplying technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) as an important source technology,
and it shows a convergent/divergent dual technology development strategy. In mapping of China's important topics, almost half show interactions within a single technology,
and technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) shows a key position. Also, technology 23 (Chemical engineering) is emphasized especially in China's important topics,
and is to be used as a source technology to technology 24 (Environmental technology). This technology linkage reflects that the challenges faced by China,
i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal, must be solved,
and the corresponding technology development will be an important priority. 4. Conclusion The main objective of this paper has been to address a structured analysis method.
The proposed method can help to identify future technology trajectory and interaction by mapping and associating the future technology themes described in strategic foresight reports from selected countries with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system.
The technology concept in future technology themes is mapped by the classification framework and the interaction between technologies is identified through a causal effect analysis. Similarities
and discrepancies in future technology options among countries are analyzed successfully, and important technology trajectories for each country are highlighted specifically
and compared. In summary, there are some operational and methodological benefits that can be provided by the integrative analytic method of this study.
One is to help solving the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies,
with the aim of anticipating future S&tchanges and shifts in the competitive environment. By providing a consistent classification framework
the mapping and comparison of future technology options from different countries/regions become more effective. Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
For example, The Inspec Database, produced by the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), contains records from the world's technical
demonstration of the future technology trajectory and intelligence in different level of technology scope is possible.
and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries. The difference in technology options or prospects may be derived from the different context of energy use
and specific intentions that these countries want to achieve. Therefore, regional characteristics may bias the results of the research.
Also, the IPC code has some limitations in mapping the content of Delphi topics in describing a system innovation in which technology
or in cases where the the Delphi topics describe a technology with vague scope. Third, since the mechanism of incorporating of foresight results into research
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and learning technologies. Cheng-Hua Ien received A MS degree in Food Science and Technology from Taiwan University in 1983.
She is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
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