referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years. In an ideal situation the risk analysis is performed continuously to check all appearing changes and situations.
exploration, analysis and anticipation. In the exploration stage, main issues, trends and drivers as well as key stakeholders'frames are explored.
Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues, trends and drivers influence one another, and synthesising knowledge.
Anticipation considers previous analysis and aims at defining possible and/or desired futures. Methods like Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking
and expert panels are used widely in the generation phase to generate new knowledge. In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.
‘risk analysis'is mentioned in the‘analysis and selection'section of the framework. This will be discussed further in Section 2. 2. Joint research Centre (JRC)
The scope and context of the analysis, as well as the examination of the technology, its impacts and related policy,
Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.
but also economical analysis. This section describes the methodological developments of risk assessment in the context of industrial safety,
and also methods for a very detailed analysis, such as index methods and strict quantitative modelling.
o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,
they may be investigated further by applying a consequence analysis. A consequence analysis may consist of dispersion models
and dose-exposure analyses. Risk is defined as the combination of probability (frequency) and consequence of a certain scenario.
The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight
INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis
SWOT analysis is used then to deepen the knowledge of strengths opportunities, threats and weaknesses of the new innovation.
In INNORISK project PPA (Potential Problem analysis) is seen as an example of a brainstorming method that can be used to explode the prevailing mind-set in the opportunity recognition and analysis 29.
The link between the opportunity analysis and strategy works of a company becomes evident in the roadmapping process 29.
Active involvement of the decision makers in the analysis allowed them to have a broad and realistic image about opportunities and risks related to the new (potential) business.
concept elaboration and business potential analysis. The criteria used forced to take into account various kinds of uncertainties
and dominate the analysis, while on the strategic decision making level the autonomous methods are convenient. The analysis of this small amount of project material indicates that systematic risk assessment methods tend to direct the analysis towards instrumental, consensual and exclusive analysis of the future.
As resulted in the IRRIIS project, it is also challenging, and therefore not always productive, to apply systematic risk assessment methods together with more loosely formulated foresight approaches
where the scope and objectives of the analysis are defined. Recruitment phase of the FTA is included also in the scope definition phase in risk assessment,
and accuracy of the analysis. The foresight process as well as the risk assessment process is a knowledge making process.
and more detailed analysis are applied in the later phases. In practice it seems that wild card
and weak signal analysis are very near to risk analysis ideology. Wild cards and weak signals can be compared to early warnings
Risk assessment methods require detailed description of the analysis target, at least a plan. The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail.
and networking approach of different expert analyses. Since future and risks are always ontologically unknown to us,
Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.
Roadmap, SWOT analysis and Signpost foresight methods were integrated in the risk assessment process. Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated.
Scenario building was based on large and vague trend analysis. The innovation process was seen as a whole. No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al./
Hence, fixed component by component way of doing the analysis may give place to other kinds of methods,
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.3 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, Int. J. Foresight Innov.
SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,
a tool for situational analysis, J. Long Range Plann. 15 (2)( 1982) 12 14.33 M. Reunanen, Potential problem analysis, in:
Quality Management of Safety Analysis, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1993, pp. 71 78.34 SME Risk management Toolkit. SME vulnerability analysis, Booklet, http://www. pk-rh. com/(Read 5. 4. 2007), VTT, 2002.35 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala
, T. Luoma, S. Toivonen, Managing uncertainty in the front end of radical innovation development, Proc. of IAMOT 2007 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, May 13 17,2007, Florida
44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,
but also the methodological approaches used in their analysis vary greatly. There are few attempts to aggregate futures data
Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty,
8. New sources of social data As large scale data bases become available in the future it will be possible to perform cluster analyses
With increasing statistical sophistication, the analysis tools will be able to isolate causal relationships and social model building will get a needed boost.
In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors.
Technology barometerwas developed in order tomeasure the scientific technological and socioeconomic state and development level of the nation and formaking related comparative analysis to other nations.
Both parts are structured in a similar way enabling the linking of ex-post and ex-ante analyses mutually
and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,
Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.
In addition to the three development phases of a modern society, technology barometer considers sustainable development as a fourth object of analysis,
). Besides the indicator-based comparative analysis the technology barometer includes a forward-looking survey of future expectations of relevant target groups.
Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.
The combination of the indicator-based comparative study and the future-oriented survey into one instrument creates a unique platform for the further analyses of the economic
The significant mutual differences in the profiles of compared countries are definitely calling for a detailed analysis of the underlying causes,
and the barometer publications consist of a lot of complementary and comparative data and analysis of considered indicators.
Technology barometer provides a vast amount of processed and organized information for further analyses and its results can be utilized as an aid and support for long-term decisions concerning science, technology, innovation and education.
Implementing change and guiding desired actions through the decision-making chain requires sound analysis based on quantifiable data that is presented in an understandable format.
A bibliometric analysis provided further input in this process. For this stakeholder analysis, key words were defined by the topic coordinators.
According to the key words, literature from the Web of Science was counted on the one hand and qualitatively analysed on the other hand 9,
Systems and complexity analysis (including research on technological and scientific convergence; security research) 14. Services Science In a first workshop with 110 participants in November 2007, these 14 thematic fields were discussed with respect to emerging topics
bibliometric analysis and a new approach of inventor scouting to bring in new ideas. In this second phase, the most interesting (crosscutting) topics from the starting phase were elaborated further by the topic coordinators with specific expertise.
and could be used for analysis. Most of the topics were estimated to be very relevant to medium relevant in the future.
The results were calculated on SPSS basis. Different kinds of analyses were made but in general, relatively simple charts (mainly in percent) had to be used in order not to over-interpret the database.
Some special analyses looked at the different behaviour of the participants but their judgements were plausible.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP (Ed.),Comprehensive analysis of Science and Technology Benchmarking and Foresight report no. 99, Tôkyô:
and since 2004 in the Department of Research Analysis, Research Communication and Science Coordination. Walter Ganz is director and member of the Leading Circle of the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) in Stuttgart, Germany.
not only require rigorous analysis, but also political will and more stable institutional settings and organisational capacities to build up trust
We synthesize our analysis with a discussion of further research needs. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Part of the analysis presented in this paper is based on two internal reports 3. We would like to acknowledge the work of Tom Ling
a systematic analysis of its use, impacts and effectiveness in environmental policy-making is still missing. This article aims to contribute to this discussion through a review of
Our analysis is informed predominantly by a focus on scenario planning in environmental policy and other environmental relevant policy fields.
too 6. Our analysis underlines the need to treat political context factors and the institutional embedding of scenario planning with greater care than it has been done so far.
Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty requires not only rigorous analysis. Even well-constructed, thoroughly analysed scenarios can be of little use and relevance,
and leading questions for the analysis. Section 3 synthesizes the findings from the review of evaluative scenario literature.
and sketches a first analysis of success factors and barriers to scenario planning in public policy. Section 5 discusses the main findings
However, the concept provides a useful orientation frame for our analysis. It helps the observation that information needs of policy-making,
As part of this analysis we organised a two-day international workshop gathering thirty environmental scenario practitioners from governments
A comparison of four scenario exercises related to global change applications suggests climate scenarios are used mostly to support further modeling and analysis,
and extend the scenario building process to introduce seemingly paradoxical elements to force a sensitivity analysis on the assumptions underlying claims of inconsistency 36.
Oftentimes, external experts are commissioned by governments and public administration to produce forward-looking analysis, leading to problems of lack of ownership and trust and a greater motivation to ignore
or treat the analysis superficially. Workshop participants also acknowledged the general difficulties of evaluating impacts of scenario planning.
First, analysis can be conducted by actors within the public administration, or by external parties. Secondly, the organisational mandate of the actors responsible can be either permanent or temporary.
For example, the UK Foresight programme both develops own analysis and commits external analysis. Its mandate is temporary,
and it is based on a cross-sectoral approach. On the other hand, the strategy unit in the Department for Agriculture in The netherlands is an example for an actor in charge of long-term sectoral analysis. A number of other procedural options can be utilized to strengthen the role of scenario planning.
Using specific requirements for ex-ante, ex-post or midterm policy evaluation could make long-term scenario planning become a more integrated component of the policy cycle.
Notwithstanding the context dependency of scenario planning two key conclusions can be drawn from our analysis for further developing the evaluative scenario literature.
and to synthesize this knowledge base within a comparative analysis. Sound process management needs to exploit existing routes to influence, such as policy networks, the media, business schools or schools of government.
Scenario development and Analysis for Forward-looking Ecosystem Assessments. In: MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (in prep. Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, 2007.18 J. Rosenhead, Robustness analysis: keeping your options open, in:
J. Rosenhead (Ed.),Rational analysis for a Problematic World: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty, and Conflict, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989.19 P. J. H. Schoemaker, Multiple scenario development:
towards a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling, Environ. Res. Lett. 3 (2008) 045015.22 W c. Clark, R. B. Mitchell, D. W. Cash, Evaluating the influence of global environmental assessments, in:
and the Programme Analysis Unit (PAU) in the UK. In this sense, the issue of inclusivity is not new. 1. 3. Some challenges to Inclusive foresight Creation of trust between all the parties involved is one of the major requirements of an effective Foresight programme, especially between the‘expert'community and the general public,
This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution. 2009
this complexity increases as we shift from retro-to prospective analysis of potential paths to innovation
and assessment tools for the analysis and improvement of the societal embedding of innovations. Socrobust emphasised the difference between hot unarticulated, open-ended (fluid/hot) situations and more structured and well articulated, stable (cold) situations 22.
Green et al. 16 in their comparison of the techno-economic networks (micro-level analysis stemming from sociology)
and techno-economic paradigms (macro-level analysis stemming from evolutionary economics similar to Nelson & Winters natural trajectories) critique both analyses for missing the interplay between both.
They suggest the quasi-evolutionary approach citing that Constructive TA could act as a middle point. Robinson and Propp made a first step through exploring path dynamics 6 They developed a multi-path mapping approach
It is here that analysis comes in: of evolving patterns, of dynamics extending into the future,
The creation of visions of possible futures in Constructive TA is based on analysis rather than brainstorming.
and case analysis to find expectations of various actor groups and entanglements between groups and particular elements of RRI.
A full analysis of the workshop interactions will be given elsewhere. 33 In the following section I will give a full scenario (Scenario 3) with annotations showing the key elements in the narrative.
and based on expectations analysis and the concept of emerging irreversibilities, show how actors interactions and reactions would co-evolve with the broader IC+landscape. 6. 1. A new member to the socio-technical scenario family
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
Delft University (NL) on multilevel analysis of body area networks (to be published in 2010). Also the multilevel approach similar to 2 was used in one of the Frontiers Constructive TA exercises on the drug delivery sector,
Analysis, participation and power in the social appraisal of technology, in: M. Leach, I. Scoones, B. Wynne (Eds.),
The case analysis indicates that the outputs and outcomes of the foresight and strategy process were translated successfully into policy decisions immediately after the exercise.
and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.
The actors'understanding of strategy was included also in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved
The analysis in this paper builds on the basic observation that all research councils and research programmes foresight or not do strategic thinking and set up smaller or larger, formal or informal,
and analyses the strategy processes in national research councils and research programmes and the challenges that they are facing.
Our analysis makes a departure in the contemporary foresight literature and the discipline of strategy.
Foresight and similar future-oriented technology analysis methodds such as trend extrapolation, scenarios, Delphi analysis, focus groups, cross-impact analyses and roadmapping, can be found in traditional business-school
Many of these methods were developed between the 1940s and 1970s, often in the USA and often in affiliation with defence-related analyses or strategic intelligence in large firms.
trend analyses and the use of learning curves. As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
The methods used in this approach to strategy formulation are, among others, stakeholder analyses, networks, negotiations, political games, alliances and power bases in expertise (i e. academic reputation.
Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
The resource-based approach does not replace analyses of an organisation's strateggi environment, but supplements these by analysing internal competencies.
Empirically, the analysis was based on: Studies of relevant texts, such as strategy plans, background notes and other available internal texts prepared in affiliation with the studied strategy plans;
1) Analysis of the state of affairs in the area, leading to draft proposal of a strategy plan;(
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
Our analysis shows that research councils and research programmes do carry out strategy processes and that the processes are based not only on scientific excellence (peer review,
and process elements of decisions based on the analyses. The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.
Nordich2energy foresight complementary contribution of expert views and formal analyses. In Proceedings from the EU US Scientific Seminar:
Technology future analysis: towards integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
The current paper extends this analysis to the second and third phases of the exercise
followed in Section 5 by a more detailed analysis of the conduct of the exercise.
Workshop Exploratory Workshop‘Long list'of research domains Initial assessment Selection of broad research fields Stakeholder workshops No formal input General Challenges for Luxembourg Expert workshops per field SWOT Analysis Initial
and validate the emerging analysis and ranking of the research domains. Phase 2 of the exercise was devoted to establishing possible priorities for public research in Luxembourg.
Later on, it even requested the Fund to broaden the scope of the analysis from the‘mere'definition of new FNR programmes to the identification of nationwide research priorities, i e.‘
but with so little time to work with, they decided to rely upon a single deliberative forum the Exploratory Workshop (EWS) near the end of the process to validate the domain rankings derived from analysis of the online survey. 12 This was always going to be problematic as it left too much to be achieved in a single one-day
and analysis. Similar shortcomings have also been noted by Meyer 2008 who comments that Luxembourg's‘current science policy appears to be almost too ambitious,..
and a greater emphasis placed upon validating priorities with the necessary analysis and discursive processes built in.
The exercise also helped the FNR to better comprehend the Luxembourg STI environment while strongly highlighhtin the dearth of statistics and analyses.
and their methodology had to be adapted to the degree of progress made up to that point. 8. Other elements included the review analysis by the OECD on Luxembourg's public research apparatus, the multiannnua development programmes of the public research centres and the University of Luxembourg,
its analysis and preparation in order to capture its essence; and its introduction into the foresight process at specifically designed points in order to supply participants with the necessary data as and when required.
and analyses to underpin the development of an integrated, future-oriented urban research and innovation policy.
The preliminary results from the various analyses from different perspectives were brought together during a forward-looking integration phase in spring 2006,
report Public Forum Panel 2 Focus on research Panel 3 Science and Panel 4 Urban Panel report Panel report RTI-strategy Vienna Analysis of RTI
The panel reports had to provide an analysis and outlook on future challenges in their respective areas,
6) Rate of female researchers in the business sector is to increase by 100 per cent. 4. 2. Five main challenges A cross-panel analysis revealed five main challenges that would need to be tackled until 2015
Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development ed. J.-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp.
'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,
it is difficult to imagine deeper analyses of possible visions. Therefore we rather call it future pictures,
According to the UNIDO textbook on Foresight methodologies‘expert panels should not stray into the realms of wishful thinking their analyses
Social Analysis 41, no. 3: 107 38. Jenssen, S. 2007. The demand for dialogue: studying the influence of organisers in public foresight.
All told, this wealth of information enables potent technological intelligence analyses. The second QTIP factor consists of expedited analyses using one form of btech miningq software.
This paper employs Vantagepoint, but the specifics are less important than the principles. Namely, many aspects of data cleaning, statistical analyses, trend analyses,
and information visualization can be done quite briskly. The third contributing factor, automated routines, makes a huge difference.
The fourth factor profoundly changes the receptivity to empirical analyses. A major impediment to the utilization of FTA results is their unfamiliarity to managers and policy-makers.
Furthermore, we see organizations going the next step to require specific analyses and outputs at each stage.
this analysis was done not in the target time of b1 dayq. Instead it derives from analytical work that has been ongoing for 2 years as illustrative material for a book 1. But,
perform elementary analyses to gain a quick sense of what those records include! get a subject matter expert to scan those results
Furthermore, the further the analysis probes into advanced technologies, the more critical it becomes to obtain inputs by substantive experts.
The SOFC topic map (upper right, based on factor analysis of keywords appearing in multiple papers) shows an intriguing bcluster of clustersq in the upper region.
Note that this example analysis does not focus on bnano-surfaces and rare-earth materialsq, but addresses SOFCS generally.
For instance, these analyses might point to key research centers; we could then seek their websites to learn more about their interests, contact information, etc.
We know of a major corporation that reduced its time to provide a key set of competitive technological intelligence (CTI) analyses from 3 months to 3 days.
We mutually recognized that certain preliminary analyses could be done in 3 minutes enabling refinement of information searches that would drastically upgrade subsequent FTA work.
They would not be expected to perform the analyses themselves. In contrast, the second b3-minq example indicates that others engaged in technology analyses have special needs too.
and analysis. Design of QTIP tools and functions must address the diverse needs of all the players.
but do not perform the analyses personally). Process management calls for explicit attention to how the analyses and their outputs can best be organized to enhance utility.
Technology analysts need to think beyond what constitutes valid and impressive analyses to what their target users want and
what mechanisms can best communicate to them 7, 8. A key principle is to maximize engagement and ongoing interaction of the QTIP players with each other.
Recognition of the potential for speedy analyses should lead to rethinking the bases for technology management (MOT.
There would be no bsix Sigmaq quality standards without empirical manufacturing process data and analyses thereof.
Technology Forecasting QTIP can provide empirical measures for certain trend analyses to support growth model fitting
Particularly for academic researchers, we have an inclination to say bwe can deliver a fine analysis;
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Axes of balance in foresight reflections from Finnsight 2015 Ahti Salo a, Ville Brummer a & Totti Könnölä b a Systems analysis Laboratory
8 november 2009,987 1001 Axes of balance in foresight reflections from Finnsight 20151 Ahti Saloa*,Ville Brummera and Totti Könnöläb asystems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University
in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.
In our analysis, we discuss the policy context, management structure, methodological execution and key results of Finnsight.
units of analysis characterised by key concepts were defined to provide structure to the panel discussions and to assist in the explorattio of future developments and their implications for scientific and technological competences.
and separate analysis of its significance and impacts (why is this driving force relevant to R&i policy and R&i activities?.
This meant that the examination of these sectors, for instance, called for the analysis of panel interfaces:
First, the modular process design ensured that the panels produced their analyses using the same concepts (cf.
In consequence, the panel felt that it is pertinent develop competencies for the analysis of such developments in view of policy and decision making activities.
Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
In hindsight, the development of novel methodological approaches in Finnsight most notably the definition of dedicated units of analysis (driving forces, focus areas of competences) and the extensive deployment of internet-based tools for engaging the panel
Notes on contributors Ahti Salo is a professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory of the Helsinki University of Technology.
Ville Brummer is a researcher at the Systems analysis Laboratory of the Helsinki University of Technology.
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 381 405.
Martin, B. R, . and J. Irvine. 1989. Research foresight: priority-setting in science. London: Pinter.
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