The sectoral systems of innovation approach which is focussing on the characteristics of knowledge production has been complemented by analysis of the properties of application domains
that research agencies and large PROS may prepare the overall strategic analysis in a field
but did not substitute the actors of this latter arena. 3. 2. Foresight objectives in the context of the three governance arenas We choose to focus our analysis on Foresight in connection with policy
Hence, we exclude from our analyses Embedded foresight or scanning activities which are performed as regular operations.
And complementarity is assessed through the analysis of intensity of relations within the network 45. As a third new element we suggest to broaden the analytical framework (originally designed for purely scientific environments) towards the realm of technological knowledge,
Moreover, the combined analysis of scientific and technological knowledge brings a more original outcome in the sense that it provides an adequate framework for analysing researchers'coactivity,
Table 3 Search regimes analysis through scientific publications and patents'network properties assessed at journal,
On a closer look the needs for Foresight can be specified on the base of the field analysis. It seems unlikely that the existence of consensual visions focussing on GM research alone will be sufficient
Two types of Foresight exercises are emerging from the analysis: firstly, exploration of multiple GM futures in the broader context of agricultural system and secondly, localisation and diversification of the GM research agenda.
Nevertheless a careful analysis of potential synergies may well reveal a number of inroads for coordinated Foresight exercises directed at priority setting
Another aspect highlighted by the analysis is need the for stronger integration of citizens'perspective into the steering arena.
To sum up the analysis revealed two types of Foresight useful for underpinning the European research and innovation system in the area of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies:(
Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.
Even though the analysis of the two cases could only be done in a very preliminary manner it proved possible to derive meaningful conclusions for the design of Foresight exercises.
which directed the first industry-wide futures research program, the Trend Analysis Program of the American Council of Life insurance.
from international trade flows to the development of new materials that defy comprehension, let alone quantitative analysis and prediction.
Although a number of dramatic new information-technology (IT) and artificial-intelligence (AI) tools are emerging to perform monitoring and analysis functions
and clusters from among the results of the brainstorming session that bear further analysis and research for potential presentation to management.
Fig. 1 summarises the results of an analysis of 50 foresight exercises described in the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) database. 1 These exercises listed a total of 199 objectives
From this analysis we may conclude already that foresight has moved on from the type of objective setting that typified the large national foresight programmes of the 1990s.
and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks
which it is used systematically to support these processes is probably at a fairly low level. 3. Structural foresight As the analysis of motivations showed,
and Kuhlmann 31, serving the function of enhancing the capability of innovation systems for self-organisation and raising the level of analysis for innovation policy to the system level.
A cluster was identified originally by means of analysis of market interactions between industries along value-chains.
The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world
Furthermore, the focus on long-term developments and emphasis on the system level analysis, for instance, mean that it has not been easy to evaluate the impacts of the foresight project (for instance,
and apply it to ex post analysis of some national and international foresight projects around the world
In this paper we focus our analysis on three areas that have been addressed increasingly by the foresight community:
The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
Informative Identification of cross-dimensional analysis of the future context of defence in the next 30 years.
It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years. Autonomous Expert group work.
Diverse Analysis of diverging views on innovation ideas among stakeholders. Fixed Robust portfolio modelling, online surveys.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
Consensual The 8th Japanese technology foresight program consists of consensual Delphi survey, scenario, bibliometrics and needs analyses.
and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.
Also, many experts of social sciences participated in scenarios analysis and needs analysis. Innovation 25 in Japan Informative The final report of‘‘innovation 25''has set out 5 scenarios for future Japan,
and find out the prior S&t topics to achieve the social goals. Instrumental‘‘Innovation 25''aims to make long-term strategy for Japan.
and the list of projects for further analysis was agreed. The attempt was not to make a global scan of the conducted foresight projects in these fields,
and/or distinctive to provide some empirical findings for further analysis and for attesting the developed framework and its usability.
The projects are described shortly in Table 1. The conceptual dichotomies of the foresight dimensions defined in Section 2 provide a structure for the analysis assuming
and the coordinate systems provide bases for further analysis of their characteristics and methodological choices. Subsequently, we discuss the impacts of the selected projects on policy in the four quadrants,
''The trend-analysis is supported by a wide external consultation of experts in order to make the information included in the report both comprehensive and independent.
The work is the product of analysis by the DCDC therefore it could be labelled as exclusive in terms of stakeholder engagement.
and explicated multiple perspectives in the evaluation and analysis of these ideas. Drawing upon these lines of thinking,
. While the framework is suitable for both the ex-ante and ex post analysis of foresight projects,
we elaborate and attest its validity in the context of ex post analysis of a number of foresight projects focusing on sustainability, security and information society and their contribution to policy-making.
Our analysis supports the thesis that different classes of foresight projects have respective different types of impacts on policy and society.
The results of our ex post analysis of foresight projects confirm the wide set of expectations laid on foresight activities.
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
This sort of knowledge may be little more than a specialised form of opinion poll analysis: many Delphi studies do take this form,
and analysis of posits and their implications for action requires examination of this underlying knowledge base,
which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
what scientific analysis itself can provide. Weinberg 8 wrote of‘‘trans science''''the need for experts to go well beyond the conclusions that can be supported substantively by research and even by well-grounded theory,
MCA=multiple criteria analysis. 5 Thus the likely incidence of disease following a radioactive leak of a specific amount can be estimated on the basis of laboratory research and epidemiology;
Unfortunately, some valuable ideas may be selected out as being too challenging sometimes they are postponed for later analysis,
Analysis and Selection: comparison of alternative futures that have been posited, and selection of what might be the preferable future given one or other sets of criteria.
Methods such as MCA, SWOT analysis, cross impact and trend impact analysis apply here. Roughly more of Horton's subtask (iv.
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
and indeed many specific methods involve cycles of data production and analysis, modelling, choice among alternatives,
apply systematic analysis, encourage unconventional thinking, and engage key stakeholders. The two dimensions might be seen as reflecting the balance between knowledge from experts and knowledge within communities,
This might include material such as a SWOT analysis related to the area of concern (how a country or organisation stands in relation to it
As well as background reading, provision of information from research and analysis is included often formally in the workshop,
The analysis of drivers and shapers may be conducted in plenary (in smaller workshops, in particular) but will often be approached by asking subgroups to elaborate lists of those falling into specific STEEPV categories
These draw upon the analysis of drivers and shapers, and the implicit model of the system under consideration;
Formal models (for example, diffusion and substitution analyses) can only go so far for example, with more qualitative analysis required to explore possible factors shaping take off points, ceilings, novel applications of the technology that is diffusing, and so on.
there is not a great deal of analysis of such issues. Our KM decisions are undertaken from a limited evidence base;
''12 The dark scenarios were developed, via workshop and expert group analysis, on the basis of posits about technology development (how realistic these are given current knowledge
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.006 A short overview of the development of the present situation regarding governance sets the scene for the more detailed analysis of the relationship between governance
strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) andconstructive TAWHILE otherprocesses include energy analysis (firstdevelopedbysoddy) andlife cycle analysis (LCA).
The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making and in implementing them as well as the formal,
The parallel emergence of the notions of industrial ecology in 1973 when Evan 40 defined industrial ecology as‘a systematic analysis of industrial operations including factors like:
Long term and systemic analysis are key characteristics of FTA, which explicitly deals with complex socio-technical systems and science society relationships.
a typology and analysis, Business and Society 36 (4)( 1997) 419 429.33 K. Davis, Can business afford to ignore social responsibilities?
and a general analysis of the five areas. We were interested more in the distribution of responses than individual response patterns.
Then, in the third section, the survey methodology and method of analysis are described. The fourth section presents the respondents'profile summary with a set of descriptive statistics including (i) the country of residence (
and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch 5. As a result of the analysis,
3. 1. 3. Further analysis Analysis of each of the Domains of Interest according to%distribution by years of experience, country of residence, affiliation;
Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.
Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics
. Analysis of trends drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities and weak signals 3. 2. 2. 1. Trends.
the analysis of trends indicated that the coverage was broad and quite deep as well; Balance was distributed well with economy-ecology leading but S&t, geopolitics,
The following observations were made from the analysis of wild cards/shocks: High number of imaginative and creative responses 217 in total;
While these lists are still innovative and worthy of more focused analysis by specialists, the strong alignment of these factors with those already cited as drivers
The following observations were made after the analysis of the Weak signals:(TD$FIG Fig. 12. Orientations of weak signals.
More data and analysis will be required to fully develop the potential of this survey but an excellent base now exists,
but a limited attempt at further interpretation of the BPS data has already been made by using social network analysis in a paper by Nugroho and Saritas 17.
even though time did not permit a full analysis of the data. Further analysis will include:(
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
Acknowledgement We are grateful to our colleague Phd researcher Ms. Graciela Sainz de la Fuente for her valuable contribution to the analysis of the Big Picture Survey data.
the EFMN issue analysis, Foresight 10 (2008) 6, 90 102.3 DCDC, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme:
4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
and in supporting the linkage between the analysis of the interviews with the overall results of the 2008 FTA Conference.
they suggest ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and its strengths for communication and stakeholder engagement.
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
cahu@zhaw. ch Peter De Smedt has a background in ecological system analyses. His professional challenge is connecting science and policy.
and the analysis of innovation and research policy with a particular focus on the civil security sector.
which led to unintended effects that had been‘‘proven''in ex post analyses (see TSU Oxford et al. 2010).
10.1108/14636681211256071 Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer are both Senior researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of technology (KIT), Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe, Germany.
Cost-benefit analyses based on advanced modelling are standard procedures in many planning processes. In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.
or cost-benefit analyses are often quite clear to decision-makers, it seems that is not always understood in which way discursive methods can contribute to the improvement of planning processes.
Another example for structurally closed methods are cost benefit analyses (CBA), which is used a widely and, in many transport projects,
Brainstorming Quantitative models Open space Cost-benefit analysis Expert workshops Multi-criteria analysis Focus groups pta methods Explorative (qualitative) scenarios VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage
A third example for this field is multi-criteria analysis (MCA), also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making.
MCA is structured a decision-making tool developed and used in complex and conflicting situations where multiple criteria are involved (Mendoza et al.,
In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.
or-from an ex post analysis perspective was proven to regularly provide obviously wrong results.
Cost-benefit analysis and Environmental policy-Making, Edward Elgar, London. Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
Mendoza, G. A.,Macoun, P.,Prabhu, R.,Sukadri, D.,Purnomo, H. and Hartanto, H. 1999), Guidelines for Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis to the Assessment of Criteria
Mishan, E. J. and Quah, E. 2007), Cost Benefit Analysis, 5th ed.,Routledge, London and New york, NY.
About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
jens. schippl@kit. edu Torsten Fleischer is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990), employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis, and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome,
and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective
and enable an environment for variation to occur 1. Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that,
The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:
Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
participatory methods that foster debate and analysis with a wide variety of stakeholders. 5. Networking.
synthesizing the findings in a SWOT analysis. Departing from a SWOTANALYSIS, it should be feasible to formulate strategies for guiding future development.
it combines intuition and rational analysis, and it requires the collaboration of a group of experts.
the provision of a more profound analysis is necessary. This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:
is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025). The‘‘green paradigm''scenario reflects a proactive social response to SD
Projections for the year 2025 are displayed using diverse tools and analysis methods. The ultimate purpose of these parameters is to translate functional implications into quantitative values,
and forestry activities 37 Economic trend analysis Electric energy consumption MWH/pc (annual) 3. 98 Medium 4 Medium-high 4. 9 Low
Findings from the implications analysis generate a SWOT matrix in which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily.
quantitative analysis can lend coherence and credibility to scenario exercises. However, modelling tools should support the process
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future,
Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted, the Law of the Future Joint Programme Action advanced to its second phase:
and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address (preferably through the support of scenario planning and/or the use of modelling analysis). In order words,
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law. In effect, the systemic collaboration between different FTA METHODS, namely between quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming increasingly popular
scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
or through data model analysis or simulation platform) captured and colonized in favour of particular interests,
Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3; Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers), as well as of the strategic implications for national legislators derived from the analysis of those scenarios,
see HIIL, 2011. Law Scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future. 14.
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
For an overview of the origins of intelligence-led policing, together with a detailed analysis of its main concepts,
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
This holds considerable methodological challenges with respect to analysis and assessment for all emerging technologies but especially for emerging enabling technologies.
Methods like Life cycle Analysis or Materials Flow Analysis are comparatively sharp swords in the analysis and assessment of ecological and economic impacts of new materials technologies.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
By serving as kind of an expert-based participatory approach to the systems analysis step of a TA,
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,
Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
Ulrich Fiedeler is a Postdoc Research Associate in the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe.
He drew the attention of the FTA COMMUNITY, for instance, to causal layered analysis, which aims to create transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures (Inayatullah 1998).
Based on the presented analysis, his paper clarifies the reasons why policy strategy and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches.
A fourth religious/mythological perspective can add to bridging the gap between the systems analysis and the real world.
‘the challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down the layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing'.
Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.
Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures 30, no. 8: 815 29. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 734 Editorial Linstone, H. A. 2011a.
The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clariffie why policy strategy,
Based on the presented analysis, it highlights some methodological implications for future-oriented analysis and policy-making. The paper aims at a conceptual contribution that builds on several disciplines,
ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution, theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems,
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
The paper then moves to a more detailed analysis of the phenomenon of ontological unpredictabbility For this
we describe and expand Robert Rosen's analysis of the nature of modelling and the relationships between natural and formal systems.
The analysis described in this paper essentially indicates that innovation and predictive models are theoretically incompatible.
The proper unit of analysis of innovation is thus‘innovation-in use'.'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 740 I. Tuomi In Bergson's analysis,
Implications for foresight and future-oriented analysis What are the practical implications of the above conceptual analysis for foresight and futureorieente analysis?
We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate. The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.
The above analysis opens important questions that deserve further study. On a theoretical level, the lack of predefined ontological blueprints means that weak signals cannot in any straightforwaar way be interpreted in a realist context,
where the‘objects'of the world provide the ultimate foundation for analysis (Hiltunen 2008). Here Nishida's (1987) analysis of the problems of objectificcation underlying the more recent work of Shimitzu and Nonaka (Nonaka, Toyama,
and Hirata 2008), still represents the state of the art. Although ontological expansion makes future an unpredictable place,
In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.
As the analysis above indicates, the reality will always surprise us. Implications for strategy and policy-making When true uncertainty and ontological expansion are important,
what if analyses, and time-series data and instead facilitate creativity and embrace innovation. Notes 1. Uncertainty, of course, has been a central theme in much of economic theory since Knight.
A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.
Comparative analysis of biogas development in Denmark and The netherlands (1973 2004. Technovation 30, no. 2: 87 99.
The analysis of economic change. Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935. In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
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