Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis
and cognitive sciences because all analysis is influenced heavily by opinion and all models and surveys are, to an extent,
and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
ICT Mid-1990s Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 787 The unit of analysis was twofold.
Analysis began with detailed written accounts and schematic representtation of the historical evolution of the industry of each firm.
we conducted a within-case analysis, whichwas the basis for developing early constructs and hypotheses.
Cross-case analysis and theory triangulation with different bodies of literatuur on environmental uncertainty, foresight,
and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues. Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social,
the foresight analysis highlighted increasing operating costs due to social and political concerns, as well as the likelihood of strong pressure to reduce prices to consumers,
Data collection and data analyses were designed in order to improve the construct and internna validity of our conceptual framework.
The analysis of value within a firm (Porter 1980, 1985a, 1985b,1991, 1997), through the integration of customers into the chain (Mcstravic 1999) and later the incorporation of suppliers/deliverers as well as customers (Bovet and Martha 2000
perform cost and efficiency analysis, and identify sources of interrelationships between business units (O'sullivan and Geringer 1993).
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
PDCA cycle and Life-cycle Management system analysis ISO 14001 AA 1000 SIGMA Decide to be in business Environmental policy definition P Design the business Objective
and scope Planning Planning Planning D Run the business Inventory analysis Implementation and operation Accounting Delivery C Monitor the business Impact evaluation Verification and corrective action Auditing
review and report A Sustain the business Interpretation Critical analysis by leadership Embedding Leadership and vision Source:
Cagnin and Könnölä, forthcoming) to support decisionmakking All these are critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis (Shelton 1997;
and rational analysis become complementary (Continued) Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 808 C. Cagnin
and where intuition/creativity/emotions and rational analysis reconcile and become two complementary parts of the decision-making processes
systems (IS), strategic, managerial and operational technologies analysis and selection Operations Marketing and/or commercial;
what it had hoped originally to accomplish was achieved actually (gap analysis) so it can establish future capability of analysis and decision making processes.
Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities. It depends of being able to meet everything that was defined in the earlier plan stage
and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
and sample analyses and validation activities associated with the mapping of Sandia's LDRD IAS. 2. Project plan The original plan associated with this assessment activity consisted of several steps,
Latent semantic analysis (LSA) 2, 3 was used on the titles and descriptive text for each record to generate a document document similarity matrix.!
Clearresearch produces link analyses at multiple levels of detail. The steps involved in producing these maps are as follows:!
Both types of visualizations, the landscapes and the link analyses, were used for both the Sandiaspeccifi and DOE LDRD analyses,
for our analyses one for the Sandiaspeccifi visualizations and one for the DOE LDRD visualizations.
and analysis. Vxinsight is a tool that allows visualization and navigation of an abstract information space,
and presentation have yet to be developed. 4. Analysis and discussion 4. 1. Landscape mapping of IAS As mentioned above,
and potential future directions. 4. 2. Link analysis of IAS The analyses of the visualizations in Section 4. 1 tend to strongly convey the patterns
This analysis added value in that the IA leads obtained information that assisted them in the evaluation and redirection of their R&d activities.
The first level of analysis consisted of identifying relationships between technologies and multiple IAS. The relationships exposed by this analysis were intended to reveal potential overlapping
or complementary technology spaces that can be leveraged jointly in future LDRD calls. Fig. 5 is an example of the link analysis visualizations that were created
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1130 The first level of analysis identified a macroscale understanding of the overlaps as well as the unique competencies and capabilities that each IA possessed.
The second level of analysis consisted of the identification of specific relationships between IAS. Fig. 5 depicts a very strong relationship between EP and MST.
The third level of analysis consisted of a technology-to-technology relationship assessment within a single IA.
One can carry the analysis even further by looking at the distribution of projects in the bpotentialq spaces by laboratory.
Of course, in a final analysis, barriers to entry would be weighted against specific competencies and the people with those competencies in making decisions about
The next step was to take the localized knowledge extracted from the IA analysis and compare the strengths and weakness with the rest of the DOE complex.
The first analysis in this section consisted of only using LDRD projects, in addition to Fig. 7. Vxinsight view of the dashed inset from Fig. 6 of the area comprising most of the CIS IA.
The second analysis consisted of analyzing each IA in the context of the entire DOE complex.
The data used for this analysis consisted of LDRD calls, proposals, and projects for the IAS,
. Although there are several laboratories in the original analysis, only the strongest links between technologies and laboratories were extracted and visualized.
Drilling down into a technology is a powerful analysis technique, and provides greater detail for the laboratory and IAS.
The value of this analysis lies in its ability to identify the technological capabilities of each laboratory,
The second analysis consisted of linking each individual IA to other laboratories in the DOE complex through common technologies.
The analysis was conducted by selecting each IA in turn and exposing all laboratory and technology relationships associated with it.
We have learned that it is important not to saturate the IA leads with the information from these analyses,
It is only as those with funding authority internalizing the results of such analyses, integrating them into their mental models,
The current approach of applying information visualization tools to the analysis of the LDRD portfolio enables a comprehensive assessment of the technological development trends occurring within our IAS.
by latent semantic analysis, J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. 41 (6)( 1990) 391 407.3 T. K. Landauer
and the integration and analysis of multiple data types. Nabeel Rahal is a business intelligence researcher and analyst in the Business Development and Corporate Partnerships Center at Sandia National Laboratories.
In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
for example, through the application of life cycle analysis. The second aspect was to open the field towards more efficient use of ICTS in the processes, such as solutions for distance-based monitoring, the use of building information models,
The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.
or weak signal analysis could be useful in charting the visionary space. The results provide strategic directions for companies
The lessons of the article could be ennobled by putting them in a dialogue with other foresight methodds such as scenario and weak signal analysis.
Second, systemic transformation capacities could also be catalysed by integrating novel ICT-based analysis tools. For example
and historical analyses would benefit from the deeper engagement with how the contextual future perspectives are manifested in the past presents'.
Analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no 3: 381 405.
Lee, S.,andy. Park. 2005. Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules.
These include innovation system modelling, text mining of Science, Technology & Innovation(‘ST&I')information resources, trend analyses, actor analyses,
Such technology opportunitiie analysis (Porter et al. 1994) for NESTS poses notable challenges. FTA increasingly includes science-based technologies
plus patent analyses has contributed to science and technology studies for decades (cf. Van Raan 1988. With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records
NEST analyses often concern economic opportunities, with significant concern to identify and mitigate potential‘unintennded indirect,
To facilitate the analysis of technological change, Hekkert et al. 2007) articulate‘functions of innovation systems'.'Some researchers look into what kind of innovation transfer is most effective (e g.
including bibliometric analyses, social netwoor analyses, and trend analyses. We adapt these to facilitate our study as a function of the state of development of NESTS.
We seek innovation indicators (i e. empirical measures to gauge technological maturation and prospects for successful applications.
Most importantly, we found a willing Phd student (Chen Xu) to collaborate in our analyses. Early formulation of the TDS with pointers towards key institutions can help illuminate needs for special expertise.
Within the context of ongoing empirical analyses of nanotechnology(‘nano')R&d, we focus here on how nanomaterials are being used to enhance the performance of solar cells,
This analysis treats DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on these searches: 4104 documents (including 3134 articles) appearing in the Science Citation Index (SCI) of WOS (fundamental research emphasis;
we focus selectively as such analyses are fairly well known (Porter, Kongthon, and Lu 2002). We begin by showing trends based on the annual activity from each database in Figure 3. It is clear that the research publications drawn from the SCI
and business activity compilations, one can enable social network analyses within and among organisations. 4. 4. Determine potential applications (Step E) We introduced a new technique called‘cross-charting'to explore the links from technological attributes (e g. particular nanomaterials or nanostructures and particular technical advances) to functional
In this paper and in companion analyses of nanobiosensors, we found value in subdividing the technical elements (e g. distinguishing among various nanostructured materials;
The face-tofaac interview with him provided input to allow a first evaluation of our analyses.
With a doctoral student's cooperation, we continued our analyses to FIP. A second round of contacts focused on identifying workshop participants.
Figure 7 raises the desirability of life-cycle Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 857 analyses to consider likely life span, maintainability, material transformation
We are investigating DSSC technical component developments through patent analyses that combine text mining, semantic/syntactic analyses,
Figure 7 notes possible impacts and issues worth further analyses. The variability among NEST situations and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered very flexibly.
Based on factor analysis, these are grouped into macrodisciipline (the labels shown in Figure 4). For more information,
Towards a combined framework for the analysis of innovation processes. Understanding processes in sustainable innovation journeys, Utrecht. van Merkerk, R. O,
Technology opportunities analysis: Integrating technology monitoring, forecasting & assessment with strategic planning. SRA Journal (Society of Research Administrators) 26, no. 2: 21 31.
) Meta-analysis on foresight methods shows the trends of combination (Popper, 2008: B scenario is used often with literature review, expert panel,
) According to the meta-analysis mentioned above, around 20-39 percent of Delphi exercises are combined with scenario.
and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.
Figure 2 The procedure of analysis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 11 4. 2 Overall view Relations between the scenarios
Their analysis is relevant because the motivation and the challenges of those dialogues tie in with those of transferring foresight results,
Hence, step 5 of a PAGE 24 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 strategic dialog might be a survey of earlier national funding activities and a gap analysis between those activities and the potential support
and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise. The paper analyses the implementation of The irish foresight exercise
which combined analysis of global changes with a participatory process involving national stakeholders. The exercise was designed to assess the implications of global changes for research.
context and methodology 3. 1 Introduction to the case study analysis The presentation and analysis of the case study below is based on my role as part of the research
and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.
An iterative methodology, consisting of different stages of analysis of the drivers and trends, and a series of meetings and workshops, served to validate
Global drivers and trends analysis. The first main phase of the exercise consisted of an initial analysis of global drivers and trends across the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legislative, and Environmental.
This meta-analysis used an assessment framework, which formed the basis of the subsequent project catalogue,
from drivers and trends to grand challenges 4. 1 Catalogue of global drivers and trends from the national context The third level catalogue is a substantial volume that analyses global trends and drivers from a‘‘national
a contextualist analysis and discussion'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 74 No. 8, pp. 1374-93.
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
The analysis of these three Foresight projects is presented below. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 41 2. Methodology The methodology of the paper includes several steps:
B analysis of the interconnection of the projects'structures and their results; and B an assessment of their impact on policy-making.
and levels of analysis, is characterised in the next step. Then we present the project's methodology (methods used, stages,
number of experts engaged and main criteria for analysis). Finally the main results are described and illustrated.
In the second step of the analysis the interconnection of the structures of the projects is explored.
and 3. questions for further investigation on the basis of the main results and conclusions of the project we identify directions for further analysis in order to increase the impact of the project's results on policy-making.
So, in the framework of this analysis we show how the results of one project are added to the results of the following project,
''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
B socioeconomic objectives analysis; B selection of experts; B identification of thematic areas; B Delphi topics;
A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.
So, the analysis showed the synergy of all three projects help to achieve results that had a strong influence on policy decision-making.
this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping
and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes.
Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross-compared
Findings By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are mapped systematically
if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports.
This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions.
and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
Te-Yi Chan and Cheng-Hua Ien are based in the Trend Analysis Division, Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI), National Applied research Laboratories (NARL), Taipei
With this perception, conventional strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analyses are informed by the need to maintain these core competences in the face of the development by competitors of their own core competences and key assets (Hax and Majluf, 1996.
including content analysis, patent analysis, bibliometrics, competitor profiling, early warning assessment, scientometrics, science mapping, scenarios, network analysis and so forth (Calof and Smith, 2010).
In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate
or standard classification system will make it easier to take a cross-foresight comparison and for analysis. Therefore, a structured mapping method that uses a worldwide accepted international classification system i e.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
Also, patent documents are used widely as a source for technology forecasting, CTI and for analysis of technology convergence (Kayal, 1999;
statistics regarding the code or advanced analysis can be done easily to compare development or the trajectory among different technology domains.
while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view. Also, survey results of Delphi topics are collective intelligence from the expert interaction of scanned countries
while patent analysis provides a more evidence-based view (Popper, 2008. 2. 3. 2 Overall procedures of the mapping.
or terms in each Delphi topic through content analysis Step 4 Assign the corresponding IPC codes (main-group level
or social network analysis PAGE 58 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 For converting and aggregating to the 35 WIPO technology classifications in Step 6,
or can be visualized in advance by social network analysis. 2. 3. 3 Examples of Delphi topic mapping.
''The keywords extracted by content analysis are‘‘polymer electrolyte''and‘‘fuel cells''.''By using the IPC subclass code for mapping, the IPC Table III WIPO technology classification No.
for management 8 Semiconductors 9 Optics 10 Measurement 11 Analysis of biological materials 12 Control 13 Medical technology 14 Organic fine chemistry
the source/application technology for the Delphi topics are identified through causal effect analysis, namely the source IPC code and the application IPC code are distinguished by the judgment of a domain expert.
‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
and the interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) with a tool named Nodexl 1 in Figure 3
and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 3. In total,
and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 4. In total 50 linkages are identified from these 46 Delphi topics.
and the deduced linkages for the selected topics are demonstrated also by a directional social network analysis (SNA).
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Circulating fluidized bed flue gas desulfurization'',Coal gasification-based poly-generation technology'',Energy consumption analysis for construction and building environmental systems and energy saving optimization technology,
and the corresponding technology development will be an important priority. 4. Conclusion The main objective of this paper has been to address a structured analysis method.
and the interaction between technologies is identified through a causal effect analysis. Similarities and discrepancies in future technology options among countries are analyzed successfully,
One is to help solving the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies,
Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
Therefore, not only policy makers at the national level but also researchers who are conducting a research agenda can use such a structured analysis result to see the future trends in their proper scope
The result of the analysis is based on the foresight activities of three large Northeast Asian countries and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries.
Note 1. Nodexl is an online free tool for social network analysis, which can be accessed at http://nodexl. codeplex. com/References Aichholzer, G. 2001),‘Delphi Austria:
Orwat, C. 2003),‘WP 1 Review and analysis of national foresight; D1. 1a Case study: Austria Delphi Austria'',FZK-ITAS Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Institut fu r Technikfolgenabscha tzung und Systemanalyse, available at:
issues and analysis'',International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, pp. 353-75. Rowe, G.,Wright, G. and Bolger, F. 1991),‘Delphi:
Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis. Hai-Chen Lin is the corresponding author and can be contacted at:
Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 73 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
The main objective of FTA projects is to assist decision-makers with relevant analyses, observations and new ideas to be prepared better for the future (assuming that it can be predicted)
which require crosscutting analysis and intervention across policy domains 11,12. It is even more so when one tries to tackle the so-called grand challenges.
We need further theoretical analyses and practical work to establish what FTA METHODS would be useful and feasible to facilitate co-ordination of tools/actions used in various policy domains,
and Analysis) and to assess multiple scenarios to support the design of dynamic adaptive policies.
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies in the USA and in Germany,
and QT approaches does lead not only to a richer analysis of possible futures, but also to a wider view on possible directions of future developments.
and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies. She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
7 L. Gao, A l. Porter, J. Wang, S. Fang, X. Zhang, T. Ma, W. Wang, L. Huang, Technology life cycle analysis method
12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.
as well as on foresight and prospective analyses, and been a member of several EU expert groups. He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues.
at the same time, the improved availability of S&t and innovation indicators and the advances in quantitative methods provide more input for quantitative analysis;
and analysis on the consequences and outcomes of applying specific techniques in the course of FTA. 5 Scapolo
and Porter 27 argue that this absence of stocktaking analysis is mirrored also in the lack of guidance on how to evaluate FTA projects that combine different methodologies.
In some cases, the interactions between the two approaches are limited to cross-checking of assumptions and findings of the same analysis
Output of quantitative approaches that feeds into qualitative FTA Use of bibliometric and patent analysis as an input for further qualitative FTA:
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
or for the quantitative analysis of qualitative data (such as statistical analysis of stakeholder opinions or networking behaviour. Such exercises push experts in quantitative and qualitative techniques closer to each other,
Online analysis of data and creation of knowledge repositories: Cooke and Buckley 7 believe that web 2. 0 tools can be used to make data of all sorts accessible to respondents and researchers:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Other tools and disciplines that can serve as interface to facilitate the use of qualitative and quantitative approaches and data Social network analysis:
Social network analysis has attracted attention in the past years allowing quantitative analysis on relationships and links that make up various social processes.
network analysis can be used to enable robust analysis of foresight data, which are often complex to present
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 are brought not always together in the analysis 62 and qualitative and quantitative tasks are carried out by different teams,
where the future is the object of analysis, as there are different ways of exploring the future, based on e g. differences in beliefs or educational backgrounds.
Cost Benefit Analysis or similar tools that require the valuation (or at least some form of quali-quantitative estimation) of a variety of factors including the social costs
(and in fact are adopted in the framework of quantitative analyses as well. On the other hand, qualitative approaches have been adopted for many decades (e g. scenarios) with no other involvement than that of the FTA EXPERTS.
methods research and data analyses, J. Mixed Methods Res. 4 (4)( 2010) 342 360.60 R. B. Johnson, A j. Onwuegbuzie, Mixed methods research:
)( 2012) 56 68.75 H. White, Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches in poverty analysis, World Dev. 30 (3)( 2002) 511 522.76 C. Ansell, A. Gash
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