it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
In particular, the megatrend and key drivers analyses have been important in framing and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades.
The new plan also includes commitments to engage the ICSU memberrshi in continuing foresight analysis
which the exercise had tried to incorporate major shocks or extreme events (commonly known as‘wild cards')in its analyses.
and from the EC-funded iknow project dedicated to the collection and analysis of wild cards and weak signals (iknow 2011).
2011b)‘ ICSU Foresight Analysis Report 1: International Science in 2031 Exploratory scenarios'.'Paris: International council for science. iknow. 2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit:
Analysis and Recommendations',report to the European Science Foundation. Strasbourg: European Science Foundation. van‘t Klooster, S. A. and van Asselt, M. B. A. 2006)‘ Practising the scenario-axes technique',Futures, 38:15 30.
The idea of IPRM is to integrate the analysis of technological change and the analysis of the wider societal setting and to enable systematic analysis of future-oriented ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development.
IPRM builds on two cultures of roadmapping (on roadmapping, see Barker and Smith 1995; Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
with focus on user interfaces Automatic meter reading (AMR) Basic life cycle analysis software Basic home automation systems Green ICT traffic solutions:
driving style monitoring, CO2 emission analysis, route applications High-end videoconferencing solutions and services Carbon footprint calculators Simulation solutions Services based on smart
and services Skype and social media based solutions are challenging the teleconferencing solutions Basic life cycle analysis software Ecodesign tools Integrated industrial production becoming mainstream,
and initial commitments Scoping is initiated by the systematic analysis and sense-making of the context, and followed by the identification of research/innovation topics and societal challenges.
and to show the different roles that foresiigh plays (see Table 4). A more detailed analysis of the Table 3. Dimensions of policy co-ordination
and gap analysis. The sustainability of the FPU is intended to be achieved by having the SCAR Collaborative Working group Animal Health
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
and research needs beyond initial analysis Development of scenarios for long-term urban developments Establishment of an UEF,
A gap analysis on missing future outlooks may propose additional studies at regional, national or transnational level.
and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could assess with an internet-based decision support tool.
Recomposition of smaller units of analysis was carried out in workshops, in order to first, identify similarities and interdependences between proposed research issues;
by way of using commonly agreed units of analysis. Within the modules, which are conducted in parallel,
The analysis and discussion may be of similar relevance to forms of transnational research programming between nations outside Europe
For an analysis of the link between innovation strategies and economic performance, see Dahlman (2008. 4. The four steps used by ERA NET (European research area-NET) are:.
systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
often supported by regional foresigght Such strategies also include the analysis of potential partners in other regions
A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated.
while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.
methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor
Section 3 provides a comparative analysis of the two scanning approaches and the associated tools that were used in SESTI.
It comes close to the concept of future narratives as used by Van der Steen (2008) in his political discourse analysis. Van der Steen (2008) sees future narratives as‘stories about what the future,
where text-mining can be used as a tool for analysis. It is important is that the search profile is focused on the selection of sources to be used (wiki,
scientific articles, statisttica analysis, trend reports and foresight exercises. The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects.
Search engines and text-mining can be applied without the involvement of wider groups outside the project core team (nonparticiipatory) The second way of grouping involves the identification, processing and analysis of weak signals and emerging issues with the help of various levels of automation.
The disadvantage is that the publicly available text-mining software is not yet useful for analysing audiovisual material. 3. Comparative analysis of tools for exploratory
In order to place the analysis of the different approaches and tools that were used in their correct context,
Phase 3 is devoted to the analysis and interpretation of emerging issues with relevance for policy-making.
Policy-makers interviewed at the start of the SESTI project noted that it is important that the analysis of emerging issues considers the possibilities to manage emerging issues
in order to draw conclusions about the implications for policy. 3. 2 Comparative analysis of methods and tools applied during the SESTI project The focused expert review could be used for the entire scanning process.
and analysis phases where there is an explicit focus on certain fields and issues. Comparing the SESTI experience with experiences from other horizon scanning processes,
However, online software tools for clustering Twitter tweets are necessary, especially for the processing and analysis phases,
This is particularly relevant for the analysis and interpretation phase. Text-mining, as noted above, needs more sophisticated tools to capture the emerging and novel nature of weak signals.
Timing seems to be a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak
Analysis and interpretation Focused expert review High High High Wiki Low Low Low Twitter High low Low Surveys Low High High Conferences Low Medium High
while others fit better into the analysis phase (cf. Table 2). In this regard an evaluation across the different approaches and methods is difficult as their success is highly contextual.
or even create new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integration of scan data.
and through interactions and discussions within experts and networks about implications Text-mining enables either‘bottom-up'analysis (from scratch)
Selection of which documents to include is crucial especially in‘bottom-up'analysis. Focused expert review is predefined based on reference frame Predefined criteria reflected in survey questions,
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
as well as to maintain close interaction between the clients of the analysis (e g. decision/policy-makers) and those undertaking the scanning task.
University School of Science, Department of mathematics and Systems analysis, PO BOX 11100,00076 Aalto, Finland 3eu DG JRC-IPTS, Seville, Spain;
and propose the use of narrower‘units of analysis'that are more amenable to subsequent analyses.
Seen from this perspective, sense-making can be supported partly by defining units of analysis that facilitate the collection of individual observaation and,
Scanning systems may comprise quantitative methods such as bibliometrics, cybermetrics and patent analysis, which may also convey patterns of emerging issues.
or network models in the analysis of interrelationships), whereby the role of such methods is to foster sense-making
which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
and policy implications. 3. 1 Identification of Issues BEPA and JRC-IPTS initiated the analysis in six broad areas following the structure of previous work that had been delivered to BEPA by other EC services.
JRC-IPTS and BEPA refined these areas through close interaction to accommodate a more comprehensive analysis across all economic sectors and responsibilities of BEPA.
and outlining them for further analysis..Bilateral and collective discussions between experts and JRC-IPTS helped to synthesize relevant issues into an interim report.
4 3. 3 Analysis of issues In order to support the identification of most pertinent issues, the expert assessments were synthesized with the RPM tool (Liesio et al. 2007;
Specifically, based on a comparative analysis of the overall values Vjðwþ for different criterion weights, the RPM analysis helps identify.
Three different analyses were conducted to highlight different aspects of relevance: mean-oriented analysis, variance-oriented analysis and rare event-oriented analysis. In each analysis, attention was given particularly to the top-10 issues with the highest core index values among all
issues in a given area (there were 42 90 issues in the areas. 3. 3. 1 Mean-oriented analysis. Mean-oriented analysis helped identify issues that were considered relevant, novel and probable by the majority respondents,
whereby the criterion-specific scores v j i were obtained by taking the means of the respondents'assessments.
the core issues identified in this analysis seemed to be the most relevant for EU policy-making. 3. 3. 2 Variance-oriented analysis. Variance-oriented analysis was conducted
This analysis helped identify issues that the respondents did see similarly, which provided interesting inputs for debate in the final workshop. 226.
T. Ko nno la et al. 3. 3. 3 Rare event-oriented analysis. Rare eventorieente analysis was carried out to identify those issues that the respondents considered improbable but still novel
the scores for relevance and novelty were similar as in the mean-oriented analysis, but v j 3 was defined such that the issues with the lowest occurrence probabilities received the highest scores,
As a rule, this analysis helped to identify issues which were deemed unlikely but potentially of high significance in terms of their consequences.
All in all, the three complementary RPM analyses helped to highlight issues which were seen to merit attentiio from different perspectives
and by develoopin their own proposals for crosscutting challenges through interesting combinations of issues that were highligghte in the RPM analysis. With the help of the RPM web-applet,
and the borderline issues that had a core index value of>50%in one or more of the three analyses.
A major war by 2020, for instance, was a core issue in the rare event-oriented analysis
At least one of the three issues had to be among the top-10 core issues in one of the three different analyses,
the RPM analysis assisted in focusing on the most pertinent issues among which the workshop participants created novel interlinkagge by formulating crosscutting challenges and by envisioonin corresponding EU policies and actions in domains such as:
A reconsideration of the policy agenda of BEPA, together with a collective analysis of all issues
=mean-oriented analysis, V=variance-oriented analysis, R=rare eventorieente analysis Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 227 the individual crosscutting challenges proposed by workshop participants into five categories and then, on the second day of the workshop,
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
font styles of issue codes refer to results obtained in different RPM analyses(<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/survey issues. pdf,
2012) concluded that the analysis of signals and emerging issues as well as ensuing workshops need to be structured around specific policy challenges
Megatrends are used also as a part of the evaluation in market studies and analysis (Frost and Sullivan, 2010.
and multicultural for early alert and analysis of long-range issues, opportunities, challenges and strategies. The information generated is made available through a variety of media for consideration in policy-making, advanced training
Methodologically, the analysis of different foresight activities in different countries was at the forefront. From these analyses, a core team composed of Fraunhofer
and external experts identified and described 50 technology trends and discussed them in a workshop with experts (see Fig. 1). A total of 12 future perspectives were identified for publication
In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
The careful analysis and illustration of the impact was indeed a hurdle for the proposal writer:
A factor analysis approach',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 68: 131 49. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
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