Then, the approach for the analysis is outlined, the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained.
Second, different cases can be used to cover the extremes of the unit of analysis, in our case‘networked foresight'.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
In this analysis, level 1 of the CIM is applied since it comprises a direct link between futures research and innovation.
The CIM provides a common basis for the analysis of the three cases and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases.
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
including methodologies combining scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies.
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,
Fig. 1 visualizes the analysis of WINN in terms of its openness and network orientation. 5. 1. 1. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities were limited to workshops, moderated discussions and other meetings either as stand-alone events or as series of events (activity 1. 4). Predominantly,
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
(&) & Contract partners 1. 3 Business case analyses & (&) Contract partners 1. 4 Series of future workshops & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
& Contract partners 2. 6 Business case analysis & (&) Contract partners 2. 7 Networking on demand & Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
and analyses and the illustration above the following observations can be made. In the WINN program a set of short-term,
the analysis implicates that networked foresight activities are more likely to be activities with a certain degree of continuity, i e.,
empirical and quantitative analyses are needed in order to ensure reliability and generalizability of any conclusions. References 1 R. Cooper
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
, complex adaptive systems modelling, chaotic regimes modelling, technology diffusion or substitution analyses, input output modelling, agent-based modelling Logical/causal analyses
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
Decker and Ladikas, 2004) Valuing/decision-aiding/economic analyses Cost-benefit analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
The analysis leads to specific process recommendatiion for national horizon scannings related to how data are gathered, analysed, synthesised and used.
Their analysis is based on the results of two surveys of selected international foresight practitiioner and leading foresight organisations, conduccte by Canada's Office of the National science Advisor and the Telfer School of management at the University of Ottawa,
The methods combined bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a scenario building in order to better understand the factors involved in the initiation and spread of emerging diseases.
using future mobile applications as a casestuudy The analysis is based on the results of the Reseaarc on Mobile Applications and Services project,
This paper is reworked a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
There is deeper analysis of weak signals and of the possible interaction of all scanned issues and their relevance for strategic decision-making.
The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
and create a common corpus for further analysis a joint database was developed on basis of the Sigma Scan of the UK Foresight HSC.
Policymakker are encouraged to expose their analysis to possible future trends to prepare themselves better. Alert policy-makers to forgotten
Part of the HSC engagement with the client will be an analysis of scan data (and data from other speciaalis sources) relevant to the client's policy domaain Depending on the issues encountered in this analysis,
workshops may be organised with different stakeholders, providing a broad range of inputs to the policy and creating relevant new networks that cross not only policy domains
but also scientific discipllines The involvement of client departments and their own future analysis is considered to be mutualll advantageous:
and public policy high-impact issues Further Communication events New material Issue analysis and synthesis Workshop Cross-linkages With policy Themed Scenarios Extranet Peer review Discussion groups Updated database Finalised Themed Scenarios Final database Reports and multimedia Output data analysis phase
Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February
but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.
The distribution of the issues over the different categories in each scan is shown in Table 3. Analysis of the joint data
We can conclude with an example of an analysis by the joint scan. The growing energy demand and uncerttaint in energy supply is not only related to the scarcity of some of these resources,
Foresight analysis. Available at<http://www. icsu. org/Gestion/img/ICSU DOC DOWNLOAD/371 dd file foresight analysis. pdf>,last accessse 1 june 2009.
A Comprehensive analysis of Science and Technollog Benchmarking and Foresight, NISTEP report 99. Tokyyo NISTEP. Available from:<
As a result we have focused our analysis on the following sub-sectors (Mateos-Garcia et al.
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
The sector analysis was carried out by the project team through literatuur review and expert interviews. The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
In the initial sector analysis, impact chains were studied, although not in a systematic way, so as to gain an in depth understanding of the sector and its transformation.
The Delphi was meant to help reduce the uncertainntie associated with some of the impacts we came across in the analysis. Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Policy analysis Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC
Sector analysis The first step in our process is the analysis of the sector in terms of the actors, business models, technollog trends, societal developments,
we completed our understanndin with an assessment of the European positiio both in qualitative and quantitative terms, based on the analysis of company documents, business and policy reports.
The first phase of our analysis gave us an understanndin of ways in which ICT innovations challeeng traditional value chain structures and business models,
but further analysis was required to assess the role and impact of technology trends and user behaviour.
The analysis was successful in providing a picture of emerging trends that impact the creative content sector.
On the demand side our analysis revealed the contrras between the relatively stable, unchanging nature of consumer demands and the radical changes brought into the creative content sector by digital technologies,
However, the uncertainntie over the direction of change and the radically different consequences this could have on social and economic sustainability of the sector in Europe made it impossible after the analysis stage to draw any initiia conclusions upon
A similar analysis was carried out for books, music, audiovisual and cultural spaces. The results show variations in the interactions between technologies
Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
and analysis to ensure that the research focus reflected their main priorities. However, practitioners may try to preserve the status quo,
research and more particulaarl their analysis of the creative content sector, and Michael Rader for his overall contribution to the EPIS project.
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:
calof@telfer. uottawa. ca and jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
followed by our analysis and synthesis of the results. Conceptually, this study seeks to find the most successsfu foresight programs and study them.
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
The second study aimed to extend the analysis by asking the following questions: What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
Key success factors applied to Canadian foresight Key success factor Application analysis Significant and clear client:
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput, Greg Tegart and Chatri
and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were built then.
More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of informatiio generation and collection, information managemment information analysis,
and the use of such analysis. Each of these covers a number of discipliine and requires the application of different technoloogies Furthermore,
a combinatiio of literature review/bibliometric analysis and online surveys were conducted to preliminarily captuur the trends of infectious diseases.
, Genomic Analysis, Biomedical Imaging) Bio-Info-Nano Converging Tech. e g.,, NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source:
and the key research domains Aim to get experts involved in verifying the trends of emerging infectiiou diseases resulted from bibliometric analysis Aim to capture the trends of emerging infectious diseases from the publication trends Phase
I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention
Automated data collection and analysis Technology Lateral flow and other point of care devices, low cost Low cost tests of greater sensitivity, gene amplification Screening technologies
multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center,
Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
Increased effort is needed to improve the automaate analysis of surveillance data to enable early detection of outbreaks.
The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA.
Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights which provided scope and focus to the study.
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis Katrien De Moor, Katrien Berte, Lieven De Marez, Wout Joseph, Tom Deryckere and Luc Martens The shift
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed, although‘the consumer'has always been important,
Her research interests and publications lie in the field of quantitative survey analysis, new media and advertissing She is currently working on a Phd thesis on advertisiin in a digital media environment based on the IBBT research project ADME (website<http://projects. ibbt. be/adme>).
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.
from various disciplines (e g. design, foresight, fault tree analysis, anthropology etc. in order to support user-driven innovation.
and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.
i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.
evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life
from home to work Avoid traffic jams Buy petrol Take the children to school Travel abroad Book airline tickets Leisure travel Go on holiday User involvement in future technology analysis Science
Secondly, the clusters were ranked to identify the most promising application (s)/ cluster (s). A factor analysis (using the principal component analysis technique) of the interest shown by the 312 respondents in the 80 mobile city application (s) showed that this interest can be summarized in 21 factors,
Further and deeper analysis is certainly necessary in order to reach definite conclusions about the appeea of each of these applications.
the analysis yielded valuable insights into the appeal of certain types of application to certain user clusters, by means of profound analysis of interest,
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.
and conjoint analysis. The latter is used to determine which product features or attributes are considered to be most important
54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February
Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user
Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 13 (1), 32 49. De Marez, L and K De Moor 2007.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.
and Innovation (CTI) on the innovation performance of the supported firms based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supported by the CTI in the period 2000 2002.
To show this, we used matched-pairs analysis for a set of firms supported by CTI
The new elements in our analysis were: the use of innovation data for the subsidized firms, collected by means of a survey;
Jaumotte and Pain, 2005), a finding also confirmed by the meta-analysis by Garcia-Quevado (2004)
Switzerland Programme of promoting use of CIMT (CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Matched-pair analysis (several alternative methods) Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996):+
+for small firms no effect for large firms Czarnitzki and Fier (2002), Germany Public innovation subsidies in German service sector 210 Matched-pairs analysis (nearest
+Almus and Czarnitzki (2003), Germany R&d subsidies to East german firms (1994,1996, 1999) 622 Matched-pairs analysis (calliper matching) R&d intensity:+
b) matched-pair analysis Change in CIMT intensity (1992 1998:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
no effect Bérubé and Mohnen (2007), Canada R&d tax credits versus R&d tax credits+R&d grants 584 Matched-pairs analysis (nearest neighbour matching) Firms with tax credits
Results of the matched-pairs analysis Comparison of the innovation performance of subsidized firms depending on the subsidy quotient Table 4 provides a qualitative summary of the resuult of the comparison of the innovation performannce as measured by six different
Conclusion Based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supporrte by the CTI in the period 2000 2002 and a control group of 996 firms that were supported not by the CTI,
The present analysis yields some information on three policyrellate issues: the type of enterprises that received subsidies from the CTI;
'Finally, see OECD (2006a) for an analysis more from the point of view of the policy-maker; Polt et al.
Lepori (2006) gives a longteer analysis of public research policy primarily with respect to universities and public research organizations.
an economic analysis based on Swiss micro data. Small Business Economics, 19 (4), 321 340. Arvanitis, S, H Hollenstein, N Sydow and M Wörter 2007.
Matched-pair analysis based on business survey data to evaluate the policy of supporting the adoption of advannce manufacturing technologies by Swiss firms, KOF Working Paper No. 65, July 2002.
A meta-analysis of the econometric evidence. Kykloos 57 (1), 87 102. Georghiou, L and D Roessner 2000.
a long-term analysis for The swiss case. Science and Public Policcy 33 (3), 205 216. Nelson, R R 1959.
This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
and collection and analysis of weak signals and wild cards has been facilitated by the rapid expansion of social networking capacities and online tools,
and lack of adequate analysis of the knowledge generated an illustraatio of the tension between the managed expertise of scientific processes,
and it combines analysis of enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with empirical analysis of the policy instruments that are utilised currently.
The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
The authors provide an analysis of the effectiveness and limitations of a number of different horizon scanning approaches applied in a European commission funded Framework programme project (SESTI).
A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers to identify areas to intervene in by formulating appropriate policy.
and how to facilitaat collective sense-making in their analysis which is relevant to policy recommendations?
Recent progress in the use of horizon scanning and weak signal analysis indicate there is very considerable potential for establishing fast and effective‘sense-making'mechanissm
This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
which will support further analysis in the future. The main phase is where most information interpretattio will take place
and understand possible futures associated with the main issues under analysis. In this phase, it is vital to apply collective intelligence procedures,
using Delphi technique and considering four dimensions of analysis: techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
identified technological topics were evaluated using hierarchical criteria and analysis of robustness Final report and dissemination of results Water resources Establishment of ST&I priority agenda aimed at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six predefined themes Quality
of superficial water; rationalization of use of water in rural areas; quality of underground water; products and equipment;
discussion and prioritization of results in an integrated format Analyses of recommendations of each panel compared to previous Brazilian foresight studies and international information Final report and dissemination of results Biotechnology Mapping
Analyses and synthesis of the information obtained were made and the results were discussed with FINEP's senior management,
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
studies and analyses related to specific issues directly or through consultants. The process was, indeed, very participatory and involved internal and external stakeholders in a continuoou process of adding value to the information obtained,
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
>References Brummer, H. L. 2005)‘ A dynamic competitive analysis model for global mining firms',Doctor of commerce thesis, University of South africa.
a modest connection between research and commercialization (for analyses of the transition see Feigenbaum 2003;
The Development Research center under the State Council (DRC), a think tank, also contributes to setting overall policy directions through its analyses.
a framework for analysis'.In: Simon, D. and Goldman, M. eds) Science and Technology in Post-Mao China.
but follow Malerba's analysis (Malerba 2005) and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time.
as well as their analysis of the role of national institutions in the development of an innovaatio system.
Technological generatiion diffusion and utilization are at the core of the analysis. Comparing the energy innovation systems of Germany, Sweden and The netherlands,
was applied for the deeper analysis of the medical functions (e g. chemical activities) of single herbal extracts.
Their rigorous and constant support fundamentaall incentivized the writing of this paper and considerabbl increased the depth of the analysis of the innovation systems.
A scheme of analysis',Research policy, 37: 407 29. Boschert, K. and Gill, B. 2005)‘ Germany's agri-biotechnology policy:
Concepts, Issues and Analyses of Six Major Sectors in Europe, pp. 9 35. Cambridge: CUP..(
and Analyses of Six Major Sectors in Europe, pp. 73 119. Cambridge: CUP. National Taiwan University (2000)‘ The history of Medical College in National Taiwan University'(.
A Comparative analysis. Oxford: OUP. Nelson, R. and Rosenberg, N. 1993)‘ Technical innovation and national systems'.'In: Nelson, R. ed.)National Innovation systems:
A Comparative analysis, pp. 3 20. Oxford: OUP. NSC 2010. Background of National science and Technology Program for Bio agriculture.
Innovation system analysis often takes as its starting point the system's structure. It is here that innovation system failures that demand policy attention tend to be identified,
Bergek et al. 2008) have recommended the functions of innovation system as an alternative point of analytical departure. 1 Such functional analysis,
which is intended to supplement rather than substitute for more traditional structural analysis, implies a focus on the dynamics of
A comparative analysis of the dominant paradigms'.'In: Matt, M. and Llerena, P. eds) Innovation policy in a Knowledge Based Economy:
A scheme of analysis',Research policy, 37: 407 29. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Edquist, C. 2008)‘ Design of innovation policy through diagnossti analysis: Identification of systemic problems (or failures)',CIRCLE Electronic Working Paper Series 2008/06.
In order to conduct a systematic analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of different organisational models of FTA,
the individual level of analysis will not be addressed in this paper. This simplified conceptual frame allows consideration of variants of FTA
The analysis will clarify the potential of different institutional models for tackling different types of future requirements.
Capturing new types of FTA systems in the light of specific circumstances This section introduces the conceptual framework for subseqquen analysis of recent empirical research on FTA systems.
and organisational models of FTA) a conceptual frame is developed for analysis in the empirical part of this paper. 2. 1 The fast-changing context:
In our analysis these basic‘forces'are transposed to the societal (governance) level, allowing a deeper understanding of how governance exercises influennc in the system.
and strategies for, handling disruptive and structural transformations. 2. 4 Framework for analysis of FTA systems The three dimensions introduced in the previous sections constitute the conceptual framework for analysing the suitabiilit of different types of FTA systems
The analysis identifies the types of transformations addressed, the governance modes in which FTA is embedded and the organisational Table 2. Framework for analysis of FTA systems Dimensions Transformation types Organisational models of FTA Governance modes Sub-categories.
Disruptive. Ongoing processes. Gradual by design. Rapid by design. External services (projects and programmes. Networks. Institutionalisation. Co-existence.
While the number of papers selected for analysis is limited, the FTA conferences3 repressen focal points for addressing issues of how FTA is embedded in governance processes,
The analysis of the selected papers on FTA attests to the richness of approaches in relation to different types of transformatiions governance modes
and consequent models on organising FTA ACTIVITIES (see Table 4). Our analysis of the selected papers indicates an increasing emphasis in FTA objectives on improved understanndin of transformations.
-and supply-side) approaches and the comprehensive analysis of possible measures in view of their combined effects on differren governance modes.
our analysis shows increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA and exploitation of FTA networks to provide agile and strategic support for decision-making. 3. 2 Reflecting on the way forward with FTA systems The above review of recent research work indicates a consideerabl diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems with coexisting diverse
A faster and continuous analysis and translation into actions of future challenges and opportunities is needed thus.
Based on this, a framework of analysis was developed for tracing the evolution of FTA systems. Empirical research highlights a diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems in practice,
Calof, J. 2012)‘ Towards developing an instrument to evaluate Future technology Analysis A Canadian case study',Technological forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming.
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011