when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
This sort of knowledge may be little more than a specialised form of opinion poll analysis: many Delphi studies do take this form,
and analysis of posits and their implications for action requires examination of this underlying knowledge base,
which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
what scientific analysis itself can provide. Weinberg 8 wrote of‘‘trans science''''the need for experts to go well beyond the conclusions that can be supported substantively by research and even by well-grounded theory,
MCA=multiple criteria analysis. 5 Thus the likely incidence of disease following a radioactive leak of a specific amount can be estimated on the basis of laboratory research and epidemiology;
Unfortunately, some valuable ideas may be selected out as being too challenging sometimes they are postponed for later analysis,
Analysis and Selection: comparison of alternative futures that have been posited, and selection of what might be the preferable future given one or other sets of criteria.
Methods such as MCA, SWOT analysis, cross impact and trend impact analysis apply here. Roughly more of Horton's subtask (iv.
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
and indeed many specific methods involve cycles of data production and analysis, modelling, choice among alternatives,
This might include material such as a SWOT analysis related to the area of concern (how a country or organisation stands in relation to it
As well as background reading, provision of information from research and analysis is included often formally in the workshop,
The analysis of drivers and shapers may be conducted in plenary (in smaller workshops, in particular) but will often be approached by asking subgroups to elaborate lists of those falling into specific STEEPV categories
These draw upon the analysis of drivers and shapers, and the implicit model of the system under consideration;
Formal models (for example, diffusion and substitution analyses) can only go so far for example, with more qualitative analysis required to explore possible factors shaping take off points, ceilings, novel applications of the technology that is diffusing, and so on.
there is not a great deal of analysis of such issues. Our KM decisions are undertaken from a limited evidence base;
''12 The dark scenarios were developed, via workshop and expert group analysis, on the basis of posits about technology development (how realistic these are given current knowledge
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.006 A short overview of the development of the present situation regarding governance sets the scene for the more detailed analysis of the relationship between governance
strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) andconstructive TAWHILE otherprocesses include energy analysis (firstdevelopedbysoddy) andlife cycle analysis (LCA).
The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making and in implementing them as well as the formal,
Long term and systemic analysis are key characteristics of FTA, which explicitly deals with complex socio-technical systems and science society relationships.
a typology and analysis, Business and Society 36 (4)( 1997) 419 429.33 K. Davis, Can business afford to ignore social responsibilities?
and a general analysis of the five areas. We were interested more in the distribution of responses than individual response patterns.
Then, in the third section, the survey methodology and method of analysis are described. The fourth section presents the respondents'profile summary with a set of descriptive statistics including (i) the country of residence (
and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch 5. As a result of the analysis,
3. 1. 3. Further analysis Analysis of each of the Domains of Interest according to%distribution by years of experience, country of residence, affiliation;
Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.
Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics
. Analysis of trends drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities and weak signals 3. 2. 2. 1. Trends.
the analysis of trends indicated that the coverage was broad and quite deep as well; Balance was distributed well with economy-ecology leading but S&t, geopolitics,
The following observations were made from the analysis of wild cards/shocks: High number of imaginative and creative responses 217 in total;
While these lists are still innovative and worthy of more focused analysis by specialists, the strong alignment of these factors with those already cited as drivers
The following observations were made after the analysis of the Weak signals:(TD$FIG Fig. 12. Orientations of weak signals.
More data and analysis will be required to fully develop the potential of this survey but an excellent base now exists,
but a limited attempt at further interpretation of the BPS data has already been made by using social network analysis in a paper by Nugroho and Saritas 17.
even though time did not permit a full analysis of the data. Further analysis will include:(
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
Acknowledgement We are grateful to our colleague Phd researcher Ms. Graciela Sainz de la Fuente for her valuable contribution to the analysis of the Big Picture Survey data.
the EFMN issue analysis, Foresight 10 (2008) 6, 90 102.3 DCDC, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme:
4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
and in supporting the linkage between the analysis of the interviews with the overall results of the 2008 FTA Conference.
they suggest ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and its strengths for communication and stakeholder engagement.
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
cahu@zhaw. ch Peter De Smedt has a background in ecological system analyses. His professional challenge is connecting science and policy.
and the analysis of innovation and research policy with a particular focus on the civil security sector.
which led to unintended effects that had been‘‘proven''in ex post analyses (see TSU Oxford et al. 2010).
10.1108/14636681211256071 Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer are both Senior researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of technology (KIT), Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe, Germany.
Cost-benefit analyses based on advanced modelling are standard procedures in many planning processes. In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.
or cost-benefit analyses are often quite clear to decision-makers, it seems that is not always understood in which way discursive methods can contribute to the improvement of planning processes.
Another example for structurally closed methods are cost benefit analyses (CBA), which is used a widely and, in many transport projects,
Brainstorming Quantitative models Open space Cost-benefit analysis Expert workshops Multi-criteria analysis Focus groups pta methods Explorative (qualitative) scenarios VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage
A third example for this field is multi-criteria analysis (MCA), also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making.
MCA is structured a decision-making tool developed and used in complex and conflicting situations where multiple criteria are involved (Mendoza et al.,
In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.
or-from an ex post analysis perspective was proven to regularly provide obviously wrong results.
Cost-benefit analysis and Environmental policy-Making, Edward Elgar, London. Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
Mendoza, G. A.,Macoun, P.,Prabhu, R.,Sukadri, D.,Purnomo, H. and Hartanto, H. 1999), Guidelines for Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis to the Assessment of Criteria
Mishan, E. J. and Quah, E. 2007), Cost Benefit Analysis, 5th ed.,Routledge, London and New york, NY.
About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
jens. schippl@kit. edu Torsten Fleischer is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990), employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis, and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome,
and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,
The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that,
The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:
Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
participatory methods that foster debate and analysis with a wide variety of stakeholders. 5. Networking.
synthesizing the findings in a SWOT analysis. Departing from a SWOTANALYSIS, it should be feasible to formulate strategies for guiding future development.
the provision of a more profound analysis is necessary. This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:
is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025). The‘‘green paradigm''scenario reflects a proactive social response to SD
and forestry activities 37 Economic trend analysis Electric energy consumption MWH/pc (annual) 3. 98 Medium 4 Medium-high 4. 9 Low
Findings from the implications analysis generate a SWOT matrix in which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily.
quantitative analysis can lend coherence and credibility to scenario exercises. However, modelling tools should support the process
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future,
Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted, the Law of the Future Joint Programme Action advanced to its second phase:
and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address (preferably through the support of scenario planning and/or the use of modelling analysis). In order words,
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law. In effect, the systemic collaboration between different FTA METHODS, namely between quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming increasingly popular
scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
or through data model analysis or simulation platform) captured and colonized in favour of particular interests,
Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3; Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers), as well as of the strategic implications for national legislators derived from the analysis of those scenarios,
see HIIL, 2011. Law Scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future. 14.
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
For an overview of the origins of intelligence-led policing, together with a detailed analysis of its main concepts,
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
This holds considerable methodological challenges with respect to analysis and assessment for all emerging technologies but especially for emerging enabling technologies.
Methods like Life cycle Analysis or Materials Flow Analysis are comparatively sharp swords in the analysis and assessment of ecological and economic impacts of new materials technologies.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
By serving as kind of an expert-based participatory approach to the systems analysis step of a TA,
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,
Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
Ulrich Fiedeler is a Postdoc Research Associate in the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe.
He drew the attention of the FTA COMMUNITY, for instance, to causal layered analysis, which aims to create transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures (Inayatullah 1998).
Based on the presented analysis, his paper clarifies the reasons why policy strategy and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches.
A fourth religious/mythological perspective can add to bridging the gap between the systems analysis and the real world.
‘the challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down the layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing'.
Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.
Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures 30, no. 8: 815 29. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 734 Editorial Linstone, H. A. 2011a.
The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clariffie why policy strategy,
Based on the presented analysis, it highlights some methodological implications for future-oriented analysis and policy-making. The paper aims at a conceptual contribution that builds on several disciplines,
ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution, theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems,
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
The paper then moves to a more detailed analysis of the phenomenon of ontological unpredictabbility For this
we describe and expand Robert Rosen's analysis of the nature of modelling and the relationships between natural and formal systems.
The analysis described in this paper essentially indicates that innovation and predictive models are theoretically incompatible.
The proper unit of analysis of innovation is thus‘innovation-in use'.'The same artefact Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 739 can be used for many different purposes in many different social practices, each with its own developmental trajectories.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 740 I. Tuomi In Bergson's analysis,
Implications for foresight and future-oriented analysis What are the practical implications of the above conceptual analysis for foresight and futureorieente analysis?
We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate. The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.
The above analysis opens important questions that deserve further study. On a theoretical level, the lack of predefined ontological blueprints means that weak signals cannot in any straightforwaar way be interpreted in a realist context,
where the‘objects'of the world provide the ultimate foundation for analysis (Hiltunen 2008). Here Nishida's (1987) analysis of the problems of objectificcation underlying the more recent work of Shimitzu and Nonaka (Nonaka, Toyama,
and Hirata 2008), still represents the state of the art. Although ontological expansion makes future an unpredictable place,
In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.
As the analysis above indicates, the reality will always surprise us. Implications for strategy and policy-making When true uncertainty and ontological expansion are important,
what if analyses, and time-series data and instead facilitate creativity and embrace innovation. Notes 1. Uncertainty, of course, has been a central theme in much of economic theory since Knight.
A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.
The analysis of economic change. Reprinted from Review of Economic Statistics, May 2 10,1935. In Essays on entrepreneurs, innovations, business cycles and the evolution of capitalism, ed. R. V. Clemence, 134 49.
Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis
and cognitive sciences because all analysis is influenced heavily by opinion and all models and surveys are, to an extent,
and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
ICT Mid-1990s Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 787 The unit of analysis was twofold.
Analysis began with detailed written accounts and schematic representtation of the historical evolution of the industry of each firm.
we conducted a within-case analysis, whichwas the basis for developing early constructs and hypotheses.
Cross-case analysis and theory triangulation with different bodies of literatuur on environmental uncertainty, foresight,
and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues. Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social,
the foresight analysis highlighted increasing operating costs due to social and political concerns, as well as the likelihood of strong pressure to reduce prices to consumers,
Data collection and data analyses were designed in order to improve the construct and internna validity of our conceptual framework.
The analysis of value within a firm (Porter 1980, 1985a, 1985b,1991, 1997), through the integration of customers into the chain (Mcstravic 1999) and later the incorporation of suppliers/deliverers as well as customers (Bovet and Martha 2000
perform cost and efficiency analysis, and identify sources of interrelationships between business units (O'sullivan and Geringer 1993).
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
PDCA cycle and Life-cycle Management system analysis ISO 14001 AA 1000 SIGMA Decide to be in business Environmental policy definition P Design the business Objective
and scope Planning Planning Planning D Run the business Inventory analysis Implementation and operation Accounting Delivery C Monitor the business Impact evaluation Verification and corrective action Auditing
review and report A Sustain the business Interpretation Critical analysis by leadership Embedding Leadership and vision Source:
systems (IS), strategic, managerial and operational technologies analysis and selection Operations Marketing and/or commercial;
what it had hoped originally to accomplish was achieved actually (gap analysis) so it can establish future capability of analysis and decision making processes.
Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities. It depends of being able to meet everything that was defined in the earlier plan stage
and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
and sample analyses and validation activities associated with the mapping of Sandia's LDRD IAS. 2. Project plan The original plan associated with this assessment activity consisted of several steps,
Latent semantic analysis (LSA) 2, 3 was used on the titles and descriptive text for each record to generate a document document similarity matrix.!
Clearresearch produces link analyses at multiple levels of detail. The steps involved in producing these maps are as follows:!
Both types of visualizations, the landscapes and the link analyses, were used for both the Sandiaspeccifi and DOE LDRD analyses,
for our analyses one for the Sandiaspeccifi visualizations and one for the DOE LDRD visualizations.
and analysis. Vxinsight is a tool that allows visualization and navigation of an abstract information space,
and presentation have yet to be developed. 4. Analysis and discussion 4. 1. Landscape mapping of IAS As mentioned above,
and potential future directions. 4. 2. Link analysis of IAS The analyses of the visualizations in Section 4. 1 tend to strongly convey the patterns
This analysis added value in that the IA leads obtained information that assisted them in the evaluation and redirection of their R&d activities.
The first level of analysis consisted of identifying relationships between technologies and multiple IAS. The relationships exposed by this analysis were intended to reveal potential overlapping
or complementary technology spaces that can be leveraged jointly in future LDRD calls. Fig. 5 is an example of the link analysis visualizations that were created
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1130 The first level of analysis identified a macroscale understanding of the overlaps as well as the unique competencies and capabilities that each IA possessed.
The second level of analysis consisted of the identification of specific relationships between IAS. Fig. 5 depicts a very strong relationship between EP and MST.
The third level of analysis consisted of a technology-to-technology relationship assessment within a single IA.
One can carry the analysis even further by looking at the distribution of projects in the bpotentialq spaces by laboratory.
Of course, in a final analysis, barriers to entry would be weighted against specific competencies and the people with those competencies in making decisions about
The next step was to take the localized knowledge extracted from the IA analysis and compare the strengths and weakness with the rest of the DOE complex.
The first analysis in this section consisted of only using LDRD projects, in addition to Fig. 7. Vxinsight view of the dashed inset from Fig. 6 of the area comprising most of the CIS IA.
The second analysis consisted of analyzing each IA in the context of the entire DOE complex.
The data used for this analysis consisted of LDRD calls, proposals, and projects for the IAS,
. Although there are several laboratories in the original analysis, only the strongest links between technologies and laboratories were extracted and visualized.
Drilling down into a technology is a powerful analysis technique, and provides greater detail for the laboratory and IAS.
The value of this analysis lies in its ability to identify the technological capabilities of each laboratory,
The second analysis consisted of linking each individual IA to other laboratories in the DOE complex through common technologies.
The analysis was conducted by selecting each IA in turn and exposing all laboratory and technology relationships associated with it.
We have learned that it is important not to saturate the IA leads with the information from these analyses,
It is only as those with funding authority internalizing the results of such analyses, integrating them into their mental models,
The current approach of applying information visualization tools to the analysis of the LDRD portfolio enables a comprehensive assessment of the technological development trends occurring within our IAS.
by latent semantic analysis, J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. 41 (6)( 1990) 391 407.3 T. K. Landauer
and the integration and analysis of multiple data types. Nabeel Rahal is a business intelligence researcher and analyst in the Business Development and Corporate Partnerships Center at Sandia National Laboratories.
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