and uncertainty as the main criteria for selecting the factors to be used for actually constructing the scenarios 18.
No impact/uncertainty analysis was conducted. Instead after discussing all signals each project member selected the most surprising and interesting signals according to their personal opinion.
and expresses the remaining uncertainty. The sketchy style of the drawings underlines that the story-scripts express only a very rough idea of what a situation in the future could look like.
and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix
The main exception to this anchorage in the mainstream has been the emergence of horizonscanning where in the face of uncertainty the goal is to uncover the Rumsfeldian‘unknown unknowns'2
This could be interpreted as a response to uncertainty an attempt to facilitate those most likely by their track record of excellence to achieve breakthroughs that may have a transformative effect.
in order to constrain uncertainty to the point where traditional tools may be used. The rub would be that by concealing the full scope of a highly complex problem in both social and technological dimensions,
instead of seeking to manage away uncertainty, can accommodate it. Their application to innovation is increasingly taking into account the user perspective and the need for social shaping.
and uncertainty-avoidance as the key dimensions of national governance culture and thereby critical for FTA design Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin take a less interdisciplinary approach,
power distance and uncertainty avoidance, are useful in the characterisation of the context in which national foresight exercises are carried out.
power distance and uncertainty avoidance. These two dimensions are of interest in foresight because, as Hofstede notes, these two dimensions have obvious consequences for the way in
both the power distance and uncertainty avoidance might affect the use of foresight in at least three areas:
The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures. In particular, three of these implications relate to foresight:
The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
In countries with more uncertainty avoidance, such as France and Japan, short-and medium-term scheduling
and planning receive more attention than in countries with less uncertainty avoidance, such as Great britain and Denmark.
Conversely, strategic planning presupposes a distancing from the certainties (and known uncertainties) of the past and a significant amount of tolerance for new uncertainties.
but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
A more careful investigation might reveal that societies with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance might be less willing to launch significant foresight exercises
The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
In countries such as France and Japan with a high uncertainty avoidance indexes, time and the future are considered to be something that should be mastered and exploited.
In contrast, in countries with lower uncertainty Table 1 Hofstede's cultural dimensions 19. Dimension Description Power distance The extent to
and expect that power is distributed unequally Uncertainty avoidance Tolerance for uncertainty and ambiguity Masculinity Refers to the distribution of roles between the genders,
The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
Countries with strong uncertainty avoidance maintain rigid codes of belief and behaviour and are intolerant of deviant persons and ideas.
Hofstede notes that in countries with strong uncertainty avoidance deviant opinion on business, scientific, or political issues is associated with personal antipathies.
In societies that have more uncertainty avoidance, foresight processes might be seen to create a political battlefield where stakeholders with conflicting viewpoints seek to win the battle,
whereas stakeholders in societies that display less uncertainty avoidance are more likely to seek consensus. However,
Hofstede also that in countries with weak uncertainty avoidance new ideas might just be ignored and not necessarily accept.
It is well known that the anonymity of Delphi surveys allows respondents in uncertainty avoiding societies such as Japan, to express view points and disagreement without involving personal sym-or antipathies.
which has a lower uncertainty avoidance index. Fig. 1 shows a selected number of countries'scores on the power distance index and uncertainty avoidance index.
From the figure, it is quite obvious that large differences exist even among established democracies in Western europe.
An Anglosphere cluster of countries (Great britain, Ireland, USA, Canada, Australia and New zealand) has a relatively low index for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
which has a relatively high index for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance. France and Belgium are marked with a dotted circle in the upper right quadrant of Fig. 1. Between these clusters is a Germanosphere cluster (Germany, Switzerland and Luxembourg),
which is characterised by a relatively small power distance and relatively strong uncertainty avoidance. A group of South american countries (Chile, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Brazil,
and Argentina) constitutes a distinct cluster that has a high uncertainty avoidance index and a medium to high power distance index.
but differ significantly with respect to uncertainty avoidance. Countries such as Japan and South korea have relatively high uncertainty avoidance indexes,
whereas other Asian countries, such as Singapore, Hong kong, China (and also, India and Indonesia), have low uncertainty avoidance indexes.
As seen, Denmark is characterised by a very low index for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
Among all 50 countries that are included in Hofstede's analysis, Denmark ranks as the 3rd lowest for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
Sweden is added in Fig. 1 for comparison. Fig. 1. Uncertainty avoidance index and power distance index for a selected number of countries.
Based on Hofstede 19 The authors of this paper are responsible for the selection of countries and for the indicative groupings.
This hybrid socioeconomic position of Denmark combined with the cultural aspects of low levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have important implications for the specificity of the foresight exercises in Denmark.
Third, the low level of power distance and uncertainty avoidance combined with dense networking and knowledge transfer between public and private institutions
sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style
The Power and Democracy project's conclusion also supports Hofstede's categorisation of Denmark as a low uncertainty avoidance society.
The two processes also show some traits that are expected for a country that has low uncertainty avoidance and low power distance.
The country's low uncertainty avoidance is reflected in several ways in the two cases. When during the Research2015 process, the expert group worked to reduce the number of themes for strategic research
a lot of uncertainty might have appeared concerning the importance of each theme. Furthermore, new and deviating ideas from actors who had conflicting interests were introduced during the process,
Considering Danish society's low uncertainty avoidance, the initiation and implementation of a long-term planning project such as the Globalisation Strategy might be contradictory.
Hofstede mentions that it has been shown that strategic planning is actually more popular in countries that display less uncertainty avoidance,
than in countries that display more uncertainty avoidance 19. The reason for this is that strategic planning presumes a tolerance for uncertainty
and for creating distance from the certainties of the past Daring new policies, such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking
and might be difficult to implement in a society with more uncertainty avoidance. The two processes did include expertise-and evidence-oriented elements (such as the OECD horizontal scan in the Research2015 process or the fact sheets in the Globalisation Council process),
The two dimensions are power distance and uncertainty avoidance. The findings of this paper have implications for foresight practitioners and policy makers.
due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
BX Delft, The netherlands 1. Introduction Government organisations design policies for a future full of uncertainties. Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties
and to design policies that are more future-proof. Knowledge about the future can be gathered,
In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,
thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.
Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van
Marques, Flexible contracts to cope with uncertainty in public private partnerships, International Journal of Project Management 31 (3)( 2013) 473 483.33 M. Mani, K. Lyons, R
and market pull approaches due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of systems, more distributed nature of knowledge creation and innovation,
Yet, Lead User input can to some extent help to lower uncertainty regarding possible future needs and markets.
Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge, which firms try to tackle by means of e g.,
These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty which result in failing innovations;
. Pennington, B. Walker, Cultural probes and the value of uncertainty, Interactions 11 (2004) 53 56.30 F. Sleeswijk Visser, Bringing the Everyday Life of People into Design
and processes) and exogenous ones (e g. environmental uncertainty and technology). The truth is stated that, as by 18,
Rather than reducing the uncertainty firms and their stakeholders in the value chain confront, both individually and together,
and private organisations are able to deal with the issue of uncertainty by incorpooratin forward-looking methodologies into their decision-making processes.
2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
to provoke reflectiio and further investigation of the uncertainties, to challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future.
which adapted the issue descriptions to the Danish situation after Horizon scanning can be seen as an adaptive foresight instrument that deliberately challenges policy-makers to look at uncertainties
but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.
As explained above, the creative content sector is characterised by huge uncertainties in scientific-technological as well as in socioeconomic and institutional terms.
which seemed best suited to deal with the uncertainties which characterise the sector and its evolution.
The high degree of uncertainty and the flexibility of the methodological approach also demanded that impact assessment
The varying degrees of particippatio enabled us to handle better the complexity and uncertainties regarding the evolution of the creatiiv content sector,
Moreover, in view of major uncertainties any attempt at environmental impact assessment would have gone far beyond the scope of the project.
the picture that emerged was one of uncertainty, with two potentially dominant future situations. The first is characterised by growing opportuunitie for the sort of small,
therefore useful to address these uncertainties in more depth. In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process
its current state of transformation and the uncertainties it is facing. Nevertheless, the workshop helped us identify the most important issues (usability, user empowermmen etc.
Even though the scenarios reflect differrent often contradictory trends and uncertainties about the future of the creative content industry,
an issue that is difficult to address in view of the uncertainty characterising the sector. Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
when dealing with a sector in flux and where uncertainties are so high that even experts have trouble imagining impacts (as the strong discrepancies in trend impact assessments show).
Finally, the creative content sector foresight becaam a particular challenge because of the high degrre of uncertainty in all (technological, economic, social and structural) dimensions,
and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
It also identified key uncertainties such as massive natural disasters, manmaad global security issues, and unpredicted breakthrroug technologies.
there is the issue of the unpredictability of the future it is neither possible nor feasible to say how the future will be (De Geus 2002.
as well as the group dynamics of such a management team, may have prominent influence on determining how such competitive force will approach the possible opportunities, uncertainties and threats of the future business environment.
Due to the uncertainties and complexities involved, it is also important to have sufficient flexibility to allow alternative approaches,
because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
and codes of conduct that reduce uncertainty in the innovattio system. Institutions are emergent, in that they are generated by the activities of actors and their interacttion with one another.
safeguarding‘variety'in the innovation system is key given the uncertainties that follow from new combinations of knowledge, applications and markets.
Entrepreneurial experimentation reduces uncertainty through a continnuou probing into new technologies and applications that allows many forms of social learning to take place..
They can also assist in managing the uncertainty associated with innovation activities and with the future more broadly by providing spaces for policy,
thereby reducing some of the uncertainties that traditionally characterise innovationrellate processes. Finally, the ability to conduct and/or utilise FTA is itself a valuable dynamic capability that encourages organisations to be more responsive, adaptabble and open to change.
These developments heighten the uncertainty in the face of likely transformation processes ahead which call for strategic orientations (cf.
This trend reflects growing attentiio to uncertainties and complexities, and the need for faster delivery of FTA results to policy and decisionmakking The rediscovery of parliamentary technology assesssmen (TA) is also a sign of renewed interest in institutionalised forms of TA (cf.
it is important to develop a better understanding of how FTA can provide a solution to building an anticipatory capacity in a climate of high societal uncertainty and complexity.
and uncertainty Systemic view on innovation capabilities of society in which RTOS are pertinent nodes. Emphasis on coordination mode and its interactions with other governance modes Institutionalisation of FTA needs to be combined with network structures to attain:
uncertainty and ambiguity of findings and interpretations, building and maintaining the necessary‘strategic intelligence'to ensure the strategic governance of technology
Institutions are confronted with greater complexity and uncertainty in their context. The fast pace of technological change and the complexity of its societal repercussions make the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult.
and the uncertainties involved in future global governance regimes. Foresight offers a means to explore these dimensions of science.
particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges. One such international organisation is ICSU.
Given the uncertainties involved a scenario approach that captures multiple futures was embraced. The exercise was led by ICSU's Committee on Scientific Planning
The exercise set out to map the long-term uncertainties of developments around international science cooperation with a view to building greater agility vis-a vis disruptive change.
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
and learn from the interplay of key drivers and their attendant uncertainties. The result should be a sense of preferences and of
Their forecasts should have a plausibly large range of uncertainty..The two drivers selected should be as independent of each other as possible..
and other interested parties develop‘agility'to manage future uncertainties. 3. 2. 3 Phase 3:
e g. teaching critical thinking and better appreciation of risk and uncertainty. A wide variety of electronic and visual medium are used now routinely to ensure the work of scientists is communicated effectively to public audiences.
National regulations constraining funding to national activities Differences in national funding rules Uncertainty at national level of rewards of collaboration Inequality of investment makes it impractical to design joint programmes Programme
policy-makers expressed doubts about whether they would be taken into further consideration because they were aligned not sufficiently with the policy agendas.
Arguably, the growing interest in horizon scanning and further on the apparently greater empirical reliance of horizon scanning over scenario planning reflect the increasing complexity of modern societies which are shaped continuuall by so many uncertainties especially in the social and political spheres.
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