ICSU is a non-governmental organisation with a global membership of national scientific bodies Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 166 177 doi:
influenced inter-governmental policies and provided a prototype for subsequent internatioona research planning and coordination efforts by ICSU.
For example, it has been carrying out a visioning exercise On earth systems research with a view to identifying a single strategic framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance (ICSU 2010.
and become increasingly complex as non-state actors influence the international political and policy agenda.
The scale at which policy (such as that on the environment) will be determined is not clear. The outcome of these decisions will have implication for global organisations such as the UN.
and how science feeds back its knowledge to society especially at the policy level. The shape of these processes will also have implications for science education
participants are typically senior decision-makers who are in a position to influence policy strategy outcomes and to take action to implement the emerging vision.
Promoting science into policy: ICSU has insisted that the outcomes of international science are communicated in a way that can be understood readily
and used by those working in policy. Furthermore, ICSU's research initiatives have been designed explicitly to feed into global assessment structures, e g.
Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design Toni Ahlqvist1,,*Ville Valovirta2 and Torsti Loikkanen2 1vtt Technical research Centre of Finland, Ita inen Pitka katu 4, Turku, P o box 106,20521 Turku, Finland 2vtt Technical research
This paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) as a methodologgica framework for linking R&d results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design.
The paper explores the methodological background of the IPRM method and outlines its policy rationale.
The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
The paper concludes by assessing the policy implications of the IPRM approach. Keywords: innovation policy; roadmapping;
forward-looking policy design; foresight; socio-technical transformation. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, the results of R&d practices have increasinngl been approached as knowledge inputs in the construuctio of science and technology policies.
Because of these developments, in the 2000s it has become more common to talk about systemicity in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies.
The systemicity sets challenges not only to the researchers, developers and policy-makers, but also to the policy-making processes as such.
but also the policy-making process could benefit from the use of‘systemic instruments'(Smits and Kuhlmann 2004:
11 12) in fostering forward-looking aspects of policies. This paper discusses how the methodology of roadmapping could be applied as an instrument in systemic policy contexts.
In recent years, roadmapping has been applied increasingly as an instrument of strategy-making (Blackwell et al. 2008.
The IPRM method combines roadmapping and the forward-looking evaluation of policy development paths. IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
IPRM is targeted also at the systemic level of multiple actors and organizations. Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests.
in Section 2 we discuss the idea of systemicity and its connections to foresiigh and forward-looking policy design.
In Section 3 we Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 178 190 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs016 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012.
journals. permissions@oup. com outline the methodological background and the policy ratioonal of IPRM. In this section, the features of IPRM are discussed also.
The discussion aims to open a perspective on how policy development can be facilitated in a dynamic context of societal challenges and enabling technologies.
The function of the case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories.
foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
955) argue that policy processes have gone through a conceptual shift in which a linear model of policy-making has been replaced with a more learningbaase cyclical model.
thus be viewed as‘an integral element of networked and distributed policy making'.'This is realized through three functions of foresigght informing,
766) also distinguish three policy rationales of foresight. The first is the provision of policy advice by accentuating the long-term perspective.
The second is the building of advocacy coalitions. Foresight builds up an‘interaction space'by stimulating new networks and communities through the formation of a common vision.
The foresight process provides a‘hybrid forum'for strategic reflection that broadens the range of participation on policy issues.
In the systemic settings, policy processes are increasingly processes of policy design. In our usage, policy design refers to an adaptive and experimental approach in
which a selected variety of policy instruments are applied either simultaneously or successively. What these instrumeent are
and how their sequential flow is organized depends on the characteristics of the system under policy intervention.
These system characteristics are, for example: actor assemblages, enabling technologies and related infrastrucctures a temporal scope of the system (e g. what is short-term,
In policy design, multiple policy instruments are adapted and tested in parallel. Thus policy design aims to increase the resilience of the policy practices in the systemic contexts by allowing space for policy experimentation.
In our approach, foresight has a specific role and thus one could talk about forward-looking policy design.
From our perspective, six functions of foresight defined by Da Costa et al. 2008: 369) aptly capture the functions of foresiigh in the context of policy design.
The functions of foresiigh are:.Informing policy (generating, usually research-based, views on futures)..Facilitating policy implementation (widening the change capacities in a certain policy community..
Embedding participation in policy-making..Supporting policy definition (transposing results of foresight processes towards policies..Reconfiguring the policy system towards long-term perspectives.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 179. Symbolic function, i e. that policy is based on informatiio that is shared and collaboratively interpreted.
In the following section, we discuss how roadmapping can be used in fostering forward-looking policy design. 3. IPRM:
a framework for forward-looking policy design 3. 1 Methodological background IPRM is an integrative method that combines the two cultures of roadmapping with a sensibility towards systemic aspects of socio-technical transformation.
The idea of IPRM is to integrate the analysis of technological change and the analysis of the wider societal setting and to enable systematic analysis of future-oriented ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development.
IPRM builds on two cultures of roadmapping (on roadmapping, see Barker and Smith 1995; Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
Farrukh et al. 2003; Kostoff et al. 2004; Phaal et al. 2004; Lee and Park 2005; Phaal and Muller 2009.
The first is the culture of technology roadmapping, in which roadmapping is approached as a normative instruumen to identify relevant technologies
Fourthly, TM puts a specific emphasis on crafting the policy activities according to the long-term systemic targets.
IPRM also places significant weight on forming policy conclusions in relation to long-term visions. However, in contrast to the long-term emphasis in TM, IPRM adopts a multi-temporal perspective that is dependent on the topics under scrutiny (e g. the long-term in information
T. Ahlqvist et al. of ICT in society or specific applications in a defined sector) and the nature of the process and its participants. 3. 2 Policy rationales of IPRM A key aspect of IPRM is that it links the results
IPRM can be applied to forward-looking policy design in multiple ways. The first way is through the building of a common vision.
The second way to apply a roadmapping approach to policy design is to facilitate systemic change by identifying those societal needs
Systemic change can be facilitated through different policies, e g. regulation and taxes, and through policy instruments that, for example, focus on public procurement,
or support for the adoption of new technologies. The third way is to anticipate how and when the demand could be articulated towards the emergence of a new market.
There are several policies and policy instruments to support visionary strategizing. First, the policies could aim to facilitate the commercialization of public research and technology developpment Secondly,
policies could be deployed to provide validation and feasibility assessment, and to create demonstration and piloting environments.
Thirdly, policies could be about setting product certification and labelling schemes and requirements. Also the more standard technology policies,
such as public funding for R&d and innovation, support for technical standardizatiion intellectual property rights regulation and the provisiio of public technical infrastructure, can be applied.
The aim is to endorse the formation of policy conclusions based on an in depth understanding of the technological developments and their socioeconomic frameworks.
In IPRM, the second level of policies, policy instruments and regulatory changes is critical. IPRM endorses the positioning of the policy practices in a dynamic socio-technical context,
and weighs the policy practices in relation to the conditioning factors. It also enables one to visualize
and communicate the logic of the policy decisions. The third level is sectoral development, with an emphasis particularly on emerging solutions,
and on anticipated convergence and disruptions. This level provides critical contextual setting for the policies.
The fourth level is key enablers with a primary focus on technologies that enable the sectoral development.
Change 3 Change 4 Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Technology roadmap 1 Policies:
The function of these case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories. 4 Case study 1:
The trend towards single-households sets requirements for more households per head of population and smaller dwelling units. 4. 2. 2 Policies.
In the project, it was concluded that a sophisticated mix of policy instruments should be put in place to propel the creation of a more sustainable and user-driven construction industry.
The key policies can be categorized into the levels of drivers, markets, products and solutions, and technologies.
At the level of drivers, the most important policy would be Present Medium term Long term Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Policies:
Building simulation services MARKETS (i e. demand side policies: From technically specified regulations toward performance based regulations;
At the level of markets, referring mainly to the demand-side policies, the first policy proposal was to move from techniccall specified regulations toward performance-based regulations.
Construction regulations have traditionally been based on setting standards for particular technologies or processes. This may have a negative effect on innovattio in the industry
The second policy proposal was to provide financial support to both green building standardization and to related demonstration projects.
A further policy proposal would be to catalyse government procurement of green buildings, and also to use the green building standards
At the level of technologies, the three most important policy proposals were: public funding for research and technology development, technoloog validation and the verification of environmental impacts.
Empowering people Policies: instruments and regulatory changes Sectoral development: solutions, convergence, disruptions Key enablers Technology roadmap 2:
duration, upgradeability, recyclability Global treaties, initiatives and campaigns on environmental questions Shortage of fossil fuels and fresh water Standardization of green monitoring solutions REGULATION AND DEMAND-SIDE POLICIES:
life cycle emissions of products not known, information fragmented in isolated systems SYSTEMIC POLICIES: Management of complex of information systems;
Policies for smart energy; Policies for lifecycle efficient production ACTOR-ORIENTED POLICIES: Policies to enable voluntary citizen actions on environmentally sustainable ICT;
Policies to induce first mover activities and integration of services, with focus on user interfaces Automatic meter reading (AMR) Basic life cycle analysis software Basic home automation systems Green ICT traffic solutions:
driving style monitoring, CO2 emission analysis, route applications High-end videoconferencing solutions and services Carbon footprint calculators Simulation solutions Services based on smart
metering Consumer information systems for complex green data Intelligent housing solutions Intelligent transportation solutions Digitalized production processes Personalized footprint services Solutions based on cloud computing Distributed
Consumption fees, taxes and regulation can be used to control user behaviour. 5. 3. 2 Policies.
The strategic policy issues in environmentaall sustainable ICT start from the present zero position in which there is basically no regulation
Basically, the strategic policy issues depicted here aim to affect this zero state of affairs. The first, and in this case the most fundamental, level is the systemic policies.
The first of the systemic policies emphassize the management of a complex of information systems, with a special emphasis on information transparennc and security.
The core task is the coordination of an integrated information system and managing the complex interactions within it.
The second type of systemic policy concerns smart energy. In this, smart metering and sensor network-based subutility energy measurements play a key Present Medium term Long term Key technologybaase solutions Vision Basic automatic meter reading (AMR) maturing Present
The third type of systemic policies is policies for life-cycle efficient producttion for example factory facilities to produce several different types of products
The emergence of life-cycle oriented policies is linked to the policies on information disclosure transparency and security.
The second set of policies is oriented actor policies. The first of these is to enable voluntary citizen actions on environmmentall sustainable ICT,
The second policy would focus on inducing first-mover activities and integration of services, with a specific focus on interfaces.
This policy could be realized by demand-side interventions, like endorsing public procureement with a certain ICT standard,
The third set of policies focus on the regulation and demand-side and refer to more‘standard'types of practicces like regulation that affects consumer behaviour, standardization and the utilization of natural resources.
Furthermore, basic demand-side policies, like public procureement can be utilized in the context of green ICT as well as economic incentives. 5. 3. 3 Sectoral development.
and virtual products. 6. Conclusions This paper has depicted an IPRM methodology in the context of forward-looking policy design.
The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
and related policy instruments. The roadmapping approach represents a form of foresight which can contribute to dealing with the web of future dependencies.
We conclude this paper by emphasising two related contribuution that the roadmapping approach can bring to innovation policy and forward-looking policy design.
Transition management encounters environnmenta and innovation policy histories in Finland',Policy Sciences, 42: 409 27. Heracleous, L. and Jacobs, C. D. 2008)‘ Crafting strategy:
Transition management in public policy',Foresight, 3: 15 31. Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2004)‘ The rise of systemic instrumeent in innovation policy',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, 1: 4 32.
Weber, M.,Kubeczko, K.,Kaufmann, A. and Grunewald, B. 2009)‘ Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
Finally, it draws conclusions for foresight in transnational research programming. 2. Co-ordination of transnational programming The co-ordination of cross-national public research involves a set of challenges in bridging potentially Science and Public policy 39 (2012
Within the focus of problem-solving oriented research a second source of tensions relates to different viewpoints between scientists and policy-makers.
Seiser (2010) identifies eight tensions in research priority setting from the point-of-view of policy-makers and scientists (see Table 1). A third set of tensions relates to the multi-disciplinary and multilevel complexity of societal challenges.
between national research systems, horizonttall between disciplines and policy areas, vertically across governance levels (from local to global)
each facing a number of barriers on policy, programming and project levels (see Table 2). Table 1. Tensions in transnational research priority setting between science and policy-making, based on experiences with identification of joint programming initiatives.
For instance in Europe knowledgeshaarin platforms offer tools, good practices and informattio on the current (through mapping of existing programmes), planned (through policy documents) and possible future7 state of research priority setting and research systems.
appropriaat processes for transnational programming are initiated Differences in priorities between policy-makers and researchers Different public financing and auditing mechanisms (vertical vs. horizontal grants, loans,
in order to have mutual agreement on use of results Difficulties to fund projects where a company from abroad receives all the IP rights Differences in open access (OA) policies (such as existing incentivves laws
OA policies from national funding bodies, universities and research centers; references to OA in grant agreements) Problems of oversight related to research integrity Evaluation Evaluation of transnational programme refers to appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency in execution of entire programme and its parts
The OECD (2003) has identified vertical coherennc as a general long-term policy objective ensuring that the practices of agencies
Comprehensive strategic cross-policy/sector partnerships 8 Figure 1. Development phases of international S&t co-operation (Gnamus 2010.
as well as the behaviour of sub-national levels of government, are mutually reinforcing and coherent with overall policy commitments.
which have resulted together in complex multilayered policies especially in Europe. The articulation of thematic priorities for transnational research and innovation co-operation, e g. from EU level, raises issues related to their coherence with the priorities and needs of lower levels of governance, particularly in terms of
They either complement national and regional policies or become a replacement policy framework in some fields (e g. in the case of new EU Member States).
Given such diversity it may be claimed that achieving an overall multilevel policy consistennc will never be possible
while policy co-ordination can only assume soft forms (Reid et al. 2007). 2. 2. 3 Horizontal co-ordination between research and other policy areas.
Ko nno la et al. 2011) note that successful research and innovation processes can be facilitated by horizontal co-ordination between research and other policy areas (such as competition, regional, financial, employment and education policies).
In effect, the adoption of innovation as a crosscutting policy objectivvewhich is prominent even in sectorally oriented policies holds promise for the closer integration of innovattio and other policies.
In more general terms, the OECD (2003) has called for horizontal coherence as a general governance objective ensuring that individual objectives
and policies developed by various entities are mutually reinforcing. Even though it may be unrealistic to assume that complete horizontal policy coherence could be achieved,
it is still relevant to aim at strengthening the interconnectivity and alignment of policies and promoting a‘whole-of-government'perspective.
Co-ordination-oriented research and innovation policy differs from other policy areas because it has to account for an especially cumbersome context and sector-specific differences.
Such differences are caused by the dynamics of evolutionary and systemic processes with different phases of competing technological alternatives and emerging dominant designs (Ko nno la et al. 2011.
In such settings, efforts at horizontal co-ordination must seek opportunities for collaborative policy formation
while recognising the relevance of multiple perspectives in relation to the objectives of different policies. Methodologically, these efforts call for systematic multi-stakeholder processes,
lest they be taken over by short-term policy agendas and debates. 2. 2. 4 Temporal co-ordination of policies and research systems.
Temporal co-ordination brings another key dimension to transnational co-ordination. In fact, the alignment of strongly differing national research systeem and vertical and horizontal co-ordination are all subject to temporal co-ordination challenges.
The aligning of research systems with vertical and horizontal co-ordination efforts face major difficulties in facilitating policy activities that lead to sustainable policy efforts over time.
The OECD (2003) defines temporal coherence as a general policy objective that ensures that policies continue to be effective over time
Temporal co-ordination focuses on how policies work out as they interact with other policies or other forces in society, including
Table 3 links the four dimensions of policy co-ordination, as described above to potential barriers to transnational research programming. 2. 3 High level of complexity calls for a systemic,
participatory and anticipatory co-ordination approach The complexity of the co-ordination challenge of transnatiiona research programming calls for approaches that can engage stakeholders horizontally from different policy and research areas as well as vertically and internationally from different countries and regions to support informed
and applied policy instruments that help to define the scope of the transnational programme in line with criteria such as:
and to show the different roles that foresiigh plays (see Table 4). A more detailed analysis of the Table 3. Dimensions of policy co-ordination
and related key barriers for transnational research programming Dimension of policy co-ordination Description Potential barriers19 Alignment of research systems Alignment of structural and systemic differences in national research systems
Different funding modes Vertical co-ordination Co-ordination between local, regional and (international levels National researchers not keen to see more budget used for transnational projects Lack of alignment between policy-makers
Development and Deployment co-operation (including currency issues) Lack of networks/no European structures to coordinate co-operation in programme area Geographic distance Policy to achieve national priorities through internal capacity
innovation and other policy areas (such as competition, regional, financial, employment and education policies) Another organisation deals with international activities Problems with aligning financial resources and budget
disputes over co-funding Diverging degrees of experience with (horizontal) policy co-ordination at national/regional level Differences in degree of cross-sector collaboration (e g. university industry collaboration
) Temporal co-ordination Ensuring that policies continue to be effective over time and that short-term decisions do not contradict longer-term commitmeent(‘dynamic efficiency')Differences in degree of continuity of policy design
and implementation Differences in start and duration of national programmes Different national rules and cycles make collaboration impractical Differences in speed of implementation at national level Differences in degree of long-term planning
strengthened global position in Europe'(Urban Europe, 2011) Determine specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term policy measures,
scenarrio for long-term urban developments, an improved understanding of future trends and research needs, first concepts and recommendations for policy measures, a strengthening of the European research and innovation communities,
Conducting bottom-up consultations or launching a (pilot) call aimed at gathering more anticipatory intelligence are ways to provide different policy levels with rich information about the interests of the stakeholders
building on diverse statistical and policy support databases and the plethora of documentation from different levels of research and innovation systems.
including policy documents and research programmes. 11. NETWATCH collects data on transnational research collaboration in the ERA. 12.
targeting policy-makers at differeen policy-levels. 36. A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
Chioncel, M. and Cuntz, A. 2012)‘ Research and innovation challenges and policy responses in Member States'.
2011)‘ National open access and preservation policies in Europe',Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Directorate B European research area, Unit B. 6 Ethics and gender.
The open method of co-ordination in innovation policy',Journal of European Public policy, 11: 249 66.
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: 222 31. Lundvall, B.-A°.,ed.,(1992) National systems of Innovation:
OECD. 2003)‘ Policy coherence',Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, GOV/PUMA (2003) 4. Paris:
Reid, A.,Miedzinski, M.,Bruno, N. and le Gars, G. 2007)‘ Synergies between the EU 7th Research Framework programme, the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework programme and the Structural Funds',Policy
Department Economic and Scientific Policy, European parliament (IP/A/ITRE/FWC/2006-87/LOT3/C1. Strasbourg:
Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,*Maurits Butter2, Vicente Carabias3, Totti Ko nno la 4, Miriam Leis5, Ozcan Saritas1, Petra Schaper-Rinkel6 and Victor van Rij7 1manchester
amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
which will help to better prepare policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated.
This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues.
methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. Keywords: emerging science and technology issues;
policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
it is crucial to inform policy -and decision-makers about new and future opportunities as well as threats and have prepared them
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 208 221 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs017 The Author 2012.
Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
The alerting function helps policy-makers to anticipate emerging issues better and earlier, while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.
In this way horizon scanning contributes to opening up new policy options or testing developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown,
in order to integrate the diverse information needs of policy-makers about emerging issues. This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces the main definitions,
Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.
Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions on how horizon scanning can be used to improve policy formulation and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
and events which may present themselves as threats or opportunities for society and policy. Additionally, in this special issue Ko nno la et al.
and how this information is transformed into potential emerging issues that can be interesting and useful for decision-and policy-makers.
The aim of the exploratory scanning approach is to identify a long list of signals that are precursors for emerging issues only demarcated by the policy domain selected (e g. healthcare or energy.
Issue description and the early warning signals around them are communicative expressions that will eventually have to find their place in this policy discourse
plausibility (e g. trustworthiness of source), potenntia impact (structural, interests at stake), novelty (lack of policy) and precursor's weight (strength of signal to the issue..
As a starting point a frame of reference is conceptualised for the chosen policy domains. Signals are sought then that give a full or substantial future narrative with high impact for a certain policy level.
We refer to these signals as primary signals. They are usually articles or presentations by an author or group of authors,
society or economy in combination with a need for present-day (policy) decisions to prevent, mitigate or stimulate the foreseen impact.
and attracts a lot of policy attention the issue may suddenly head in a completely undirected way because of the occurreenc of wild cards or countervailing issues.
Rather it provides tools to alert for potential impact-rich issues that need policy attention. In order to identify and assess the primary signals,
described impact, desirabilitty factual basis, plausibility, novelty to policy-makers, interests at stake, emotional aspects and critical aspects (if the issue appeals
In addition, experts and policy-makers were called upon to enrich, validate and discuss the scanning results. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:
but also in wikis, specialised websites, specialised web-blogs, policy papers and reports. Audiovisual and other sources were audio and video recordings of interviews,
Conferences may also be particularly interesting for making contact with future-oriented experts as well as policy-makers in the relevant domains.
Policy-makers interviewed at the start of the SESTI project noted that it is important that the analysis of emerging issues considers the possibilities to manage emerging issues
while also identifying the associated policy implications. As has been highlighted a proper assesssmen of weak signals should be translated into policy recommendations.
Thus, the last phase of the scanning process should be devoted to this particular task. In the SESTI project this task was complemented by workshops
which provided space for discussing the findings on emerging issues with experts as well as with policy-makers
in order to draw conclusions about the implications for policy. 3. 2 Comparative analysis of methods and tools applied during the SESTI project The focused expert review could be used for the entire scanning process.
conservation or science and policy (cf. Czaplicka-Kolarz et al. 2009; Smith et al. 2010; Sutherland et al. 2010;
Policy-makers who were interviewed within the SESTI project noted the importance of methods that allow for identifying the connections, clustering of signals and the stakeholders behind them.
However, they are useful for discussing with future-oriented experts as well as with policy-makers the validity of hypotheses on specific emerging issues or their novelty
A first assessment of the tools used in the scanning process in the SESTI project is given in Table 2. 3. 3 Policy workshops
and policy discourse Specific reference should also be made to the policy workshhop that were conducted as part of the SESTI project.
The participants were policy-makers and experts with a broad view of the domains being considered. Analytical presentations were made on the selected emerging issues in the different domains.
After discussing the issues participants were asked to vote on the terms of the perceived impact, plausibility, novelty, policy relevance and strength of each of the emerging issues.
Although policy-makers were underrepreesente in these workshops, the results gave a clearer idea of the relative importance of the issues and the way in
policy-makers expressed doubts about whether they would be taken into further consideration because they were aligned not sufficiently with the policy agendas.
Linkages to issues that were already on the radar of policy-makers were considered helpful for improovin the relevance and usefulness of the scanning outcomes.
The workshop experience also showed that even though topics or issues may already be known, they can still be considered to be emerging
but have not been taken sufficiently into consideration by policy and society thus far. Additionally the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
Apart from timing, there are also challenges in bringing forward a potential emerging issue or early signal to policy-makers.
Policy-makers may face barriers to taking the results of horizon scans on board as they may be contradicted by vested interests.
and collaboration across different and segmennte policies In the cases where conflicts may arise even small investments in examining the issues may be blocked.
i e. the interests of the client, the wider policy context which they are associated with, time and budget restrictions,
and interesst of policy-makers and the degree to which they are met by the different tools
Any useful evaluation of different methods based on the information needs of policy-makers should apply to methods
or international organisation Positive and negative impacts and associated policy implications Policy recommendations 216. E. Amanatidou et al.
Overall, the features of the participatory methods enabling verification and filtering of results as well as policy implications
Horizon scanning alerts policy-makers to anticipaat better and earlier emerging issues that will need probably their attention.
This function allows a wider range of policy options to be considered. It also helps in the assessment of developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown,
but plausible, new emerging issues. For the alerting function a comprehensive method is needed to scan
In processing existing policies are identified and considered in framing/reframing of potential issues by manual search for related previous foresight activities
and related ongoing policy initiatives and discourses Text-mining can show policy-related terms appearing in a document
Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics
in previous published thematic foresight report as well as in recently published policy documents Text-mining can show the policy related terms.
In focused expert review narratiive in the primary scanning usually contain already policy implications or even policy advice of author.
While secondary scanning usually gives ideas on elaboration of proposed policies or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature.
Conferences are useful to recruit potential policy workshop participants (continued) 218. E. Amanatidou et al. create new options taking into account the diverse informattio needs of policy-makers on emerging issues.
Several lessons can be drawn from this experience that should be kept in mind by scanning practitioners and policy-makers alike.
Different approaches to scanning identifying and assessing potential emerging issues exist. It is clear that issues are dynamic,
and are taken up by decisionaan policy-makers. This means that not only the evidence-based plausible storyline in the identified future narrative counts.
as well as to maintain close interaction between the clients of the analysis (e g. decision/policy-makers) and those undertaking the scanning task.
If these issues could have been put forward in a more effective way in policy agendas, then it would have been possible to contain this damage before it reached its full scale.
This also means that the policy system should be made aware of the benefits of taking horizon scanning results into account early enough and more seriously.
participatory approach (b) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach Policy recommendations Medium High High Through discourses, networking, interacttio with experts.
Also via examinattio of relevant thematic foresight reports and recently published policy documents Meta descriptions of issues can be discussed in Workshops with experts
As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting. In general, model-based forward-looking results are taken into account far more seriously by policy-makers than horizon scanning data
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
policy-makers downgraded the importance of the specific issue by maintaiinin their faith in the reassuring messages from the economic planning agencies (van Rij 2010b).
Nevertheless, the results may still not be taken up by policy-makers for a number of reasons as mentioned above.
Involving policy-makers sufficiently early in the process so that they can provide regular information on the process
It is also important that policy-makers are engaged actively especially in interpreting the results and deriving policy recommendations.
Even more so, it is crucial to make them aware of the benefits of effectively dealing with potentially important issues early enough as well as the risks of overlooking them.
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: XXX XXX, in this special issue.
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