totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise‘Facing the future:
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors.
This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues;
and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.
policy coordination; futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
and policy-makers have expressed in exploring alternative and even conflicting interpretations of the future (Kuosa 2010;
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 222 231 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs021 The Author 2012.
In this setting, where policy-makers are almost bound to be taken by surprise, horizon scanning can serve as a systemmati approach to support the early identification and collective exploration of emerging issues.
This can be seen as a step towards the timely implementation of appropriate policy actions. Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
horizon scanning may offer major benefits especially when there are long delays in policy implementation and when the issues evolve through an incipient phase that is initially only observed by some individuals.
While individual sense-making has been recognized aptly as a key determinant of what signals are‘relevant'the collective sense-making processes coupled with the interpretation of signals have received less attention, particularly with regard to the recognition of interconnections among the signals or the derivation of their policy implications (Dervin 1998).
These collective processes are also important because they underlie key scoping decisions and thus shape both implicit and explicit expectations that influence scanners and their behaviiour In this paper,
'which was carried out in 2009 by the Joint research Centre-Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) of the European commission (EC).
whose policy implications were explored then in a workshop. By building on the encouraging experiences of this exercise, we outline methodological steps in support of comparable scanning processes which facilitate the incremental development of crosscutting challenges
Finally, we argue that these types of scanning processes can be viewed as an instrument that prepares ground for crosscutting policy coordination
and the attainment of systemic policy objectives. 2. Sense-making in horizon scanning Because the objective of horizon scanning is to create knowledge on the emergence of issues that,
Salo et al. 2009) in preparation for subsequent face-to-face stakeholder workshops. 2. 4 Building ground for crosscutting policy coordination At best,
and engage policy-makers and other stakeholders in creative networking that facilitates the implementation of later action plans (Brummer et al. 2008;
From the process perspective, this type of direct engagemeen in workshops helps expose policy-makers to the diversity of issues at stake.
However, when attempting to take issues forward in policy formulation, it is often necessaar to synthesize them into meaningful clusters that exhibit a logical structure
so fragmented that it does not lead to the development of overarching policy agendas, expressed as coherent and crosscutting challenges that can be 224.
T. Ko nno la et al. addressed with systemic policies that span several areas of administrative responsibility.
'whose exploration paves way for policy coordination and the attainnmen of systemic policy objectives (Schoen et al. 2011).
This is likely to be true especially in policy contexts where the issues are not yet prominent on the agenda
and where they evolve interdependently in a problem context where policy actions need to be coordinated
by doing so, foster the development of joint policy measures without necessitating potentially time-consuming and cumbersame changes in existing organizational structures and practices (Anderson 2005).
Boden et al. 2010) which focused on long-term developments and their policy implications on EU policy-making, as a means of preparing for the development of the Europe 2020 strategy and related policy initiatives such as the EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
In this context, JRC-IPTS and BEPA started collaboratiiv horizon scanning efforts which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
and policy implications. 3. 1 Identification of Issues BEPA and JRC-IPTS initiated the analysis in six broad areas following the structure of previous work that had been delivered to BEPA by other EC services.
BEPA emphasized that policy relevance was a crucial criterion in the selection of these reports.
Thus, a few policy documeent that had been developed on the basis of a participattor approach and subjected to an open consultation were included also.
which included both evidence-based and new emerging trends, wild cards and even brief descriptions of anticipated impacts and prospective policy recommendatiions Here,
and wild cards as well as related policy recommendatioons These reviews resulted in the jointly authored area descriptions and the identification of 370 codified and traceable issues.
relevance to EU policy-making. novelty in comparison with earlier policy debates. probability of occurrence by 2025 In total, 381 issues were evaluated on a seven-point Likert-scale
and to examine their policy implications for the EU. Apart from participants from BEPA and JRC-IPTS, there were 22 representatives from several Directorates-General of the EC,
and how the EU could respond to it through adequate policies. At least one of the three issues had to be among the top-10 core issues in one of the three different analyses,
which the workshop participants created novel interlinkagge by formulating crosscutting challenges and by envisioonin corresponding EU policies and actions in domains such as:
policy coordination (horizontal, vertical, Open Method of Coordination; institutional changes; and the role of EU in relation to global governance.
A reconsideration of the policy agenda of BEPA, together with a collective analysis of all issues
and require action at EU level through appropriately aligned crosscutttin policies that implement effective joint responses.
according to the workshop participants, had received not yet sufficient attention in the policy and decision processes (Boden et al. 2010):.
The need to change the uses of essential natural resources by aligning all policy realms towards sustainabillity extending from policy design through implementtatio to evaluation..
Participants, especiaall policy-makers, found that they could express and explore their ideas freely and interactively.
They also said that they received useful feedback from participants represenntin different policy areas because this helped them to see challenges from alternative viewpoints
and how such challenges could be explored in view of EU-level policy implications. The traceability of crosscutting challenges
which suggests that the engagement of a large number of scanners helps draw attention to phenommen that qualify as indicators of emerging policy issues.
they may have policy implications in several areas of administrative responsibility. But if the policy-makers in these areas are autonomous,
or represent different‘administrative silos, 'it may be difficult to shape broad policies that they would be committed fully to,
because such commitments could be seen as a threat to their autonomy. This notwithstanding, collective sense-making activities spurred by cluster formation can still be fruitful
because they highlight the interconnectednees of policy actions and, by doing so, provide pointers to actions that may be executed best in a loosely coordinated fashion.
at best, contribute to the design of systemic policies which far from being monolithic and inflexible contribuut to the attainment of systemic policy objectives by supporrtin the timely recognition of the interconnectedness of actions.
Based on their experiences from the exercise on‘Scanning for emerging science and technology issues',Amanatidou et al.
and emerging issues as well as ensuing workshops need to be structured around specific policy challenges and aligned with the agendas of policy-makers.
In particular, linkages to prevalent issues that were already on the radar of policy-makers were seen to contribute to the usefulness of the exercise.
Seen from this perspective, the BEPA exercise suggests that although the issues as such may be known, they merit renewed attention
and also for exploring the policy implications of these challenges in collaborative workshoops From this perspective,
and for the prioritization and clustering thereof is viable even in other contexts where there is a need to build shared understandings about the prospects of crosscutting coordination in support of systemic policy objectives.
Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 22. Anderson, W. 2005)‘ Wiring up Whitehall:
Ko nno la, T.,Haegeman, K. and Guy, K. 2012)‘ Embedding foresight in transnational research programming',Science and Public policy, 39: 191 207.
Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12. SEC (2010) 1161 Final.
Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis',Science and Public policy, 39: 153 66. Weick, K. 1995) Sensemaking in Organizations.
The idea fits well with the Fraunhofer mission, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 232 244 doi:
and other major diseases Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9 Integrate principles of sustainable development into country policies
Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, No. 13.
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