or policy decisions relying primarily upon intuitive sources of knowledge. That need no longer be the case.
Other databases cover policy, popular press, and business activities. These can be exploited to help understand contextual factors affecting particular technological innovations.
A major impediment to the utilization of FTA results is their unfamiliarity to managers and policy-makers.
such as senior technology managers or policy-makers. They would not be expected to perform the analyses themselves. In contrast, the second b3-minq example indicates that others engaged in technology analyses have special needs too.
, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
Exploiting contextual information resources that cover policy, standards, public concerns, possible health and environmental hazards, and perceived technological impacts can further support TA activities.
We also describe the policy context and methodological support of Finnsight: specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and
what policy developments have taken place after to the publication of foresight results, in the belief that our analysis may be instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.
Keywords: foresight; research and innovation policy; innovation studies; group decision support 1. Introduction As an instrument of strategic policy intelligence (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), foresight must often serve multiple objectives that are shaped by its policy context.
Typically, these objectives include attempts (1) to prepare priorities in the research and innovation (R&i) system,
In our analysis, we discuss the policy context, management structure, methodological execution and key results of Finnsight.
We also report some subsequent policy developments and examine Finnsight in view of axes of balance that are arguably helpful in the planning of foresight exercises The methodological novelties of Finnsight are highlighted,
Section 2 outlines the policy context of Finnsight. Section 3 describes the methodological design, execution and main results of Finnsight and reports subsequent policy developments in the R&i system.
Section 4 examines Finnsight in view of four axes of balance and Section 5 concludes. 2. Finnsight in context In comparison with many other countries,
In addition to one-of-a-kind exercises, important elements of foresight activity are ingrained in policy processes at the highest level of decision making:
thus, some results from even seemingly isolated foresight activities can be brought to bear on policy making even in the absence of formal coordination,
and separate analysis of its significance and impacts (why is this driving force relevant to R&i policy and R&i activities?.
the panels also presented their thoughts as to how the focus areas might be developed best through R&i policy measures or other actions.
In consequence, the panel felt that it is pertinent develop competencies for the analysis of such developments in view of policy and decision making activities.
d) Subsequent policy developments Because foresight is a highly systemic instrument with close linkages to other policy processes that contribute to the development of the R&i system,
it is not straightforward to assess to what extent subsequent policy developments may have been influenced by foresight recommendations (cf.
With this important proviso, we briefly characterise selected policy developments that have been influenced or at least informed by Finnsight.
As instruments of strategic policy intelligence (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), foresight exerciise such as Finnsight must respond to implicit
members was motivated partly by the tight schedule that was implied largely by the broader policy context.
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 4: 462 82.
Science and Public policy 28, no. 6: 453 64. Salo, A, . and J.-P. Salmenkaita. 2002.
Policy and Management 2, no. 2: 167 93. Salo, A t. Könnölä, and M. Hjelt. 2004.
rethinking the role of policy. Enterprise&innovation Management Studies 1, no. 1: 73 102. Smits, R,
what they describe as the‘‘covenant between futures methodology and the needs of long-term strategic management and policy''.
he sees the main distinctive features of foresight from futures studies as lying in a link to policy actions,
By the time of the second conference, the‘‘impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making''had become the core theme
and emphasis was placed on the delivery of concrete and valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES.
and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.
and in demand-side innovation policies while also influencing the development of those policies. Schoen et al. address recent developments in foresight theory
Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
Among FTA TOOLS foresight is posited as the most suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
the paper concludes by advocating the need for embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making.
and supporting evidence-based or evidence-informed policy making. The conference will seek to understand further how far the institutionalisation (i e. embeddedness) of FTA supports both the achievement of measurable impacts and the strengthening of interaction s between research, higher education and innovation.
In addition the conference aims to debate the use of horizon scanning as a process that enables policy to explore actively emerging challenges
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 267 269.11 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
& Policy Studies (ST3PS), University of Twente, School of management and Governance, Institute of Innovation and Governance Studies (IGS), Capitool 15, P o box 217,7500 AE Enschede, The netherlands 1
+31 053 489 3353/3350.5 PRIME=Policies for Research and Innovation in the Move towards the European research area, European Network of Excellence (2004 2009;
Foresight is presented as a systemic policy tool appropriate for contributing to a better-geared European research
evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
7. At the same time the notion of Foresight as a governance tool and policy instrument has been refined. Systems of policy functions have been proposed to enable Foresight design
and evaluation to tailor approaches to policy objectives (8, Forsociety). In order to improve Foresight impact on policy strategy building it has been proposed to complement collective Foresight processes with a strategic counselling phase where the outcomes are translated into strategic choices 9. To sum up,
it seems that Foresight has been evolving from a loose collection of approaches to a complex integrated framework with a number of levers for adaptation to specific purposes and contexts and gradually,
a more systematic understanding of the key elements of this adaptation is emerging. The main context variables taken into account for Tailoring Foresight are focus,
objectives and policy functions on the one hand and nature of decision making structure and their relation to the Foresight process on the other. 2. 2. Why more tailoring?
The need to tailor policy instruments to the characteristics of the targeted field is grounded well in insights from research on the dynamics of innovation and knowledge generation.
and policy instruments and that the properties of the knowledge base is a crucial factor for such a differentiation.
For some time now it has been suggested that insights from innovation systems research on the systemic nature of knowledge production should be taken into account by R&i policy to better target its instruments and approaches 16.
and innovation policy from other policy areas such as social or employment policies where the Open Method of Coordination has been applied earlier on in Europe. 3. 1. Governance arenas in European research
At European level, strategic policy orientation takes place, firstly in the context of the process of elaboration of the EU research budget, mainly the framework programme,
This strategic steering of research is performed also through other transnational (non EU) policy frameworks of research policy integration, namely the intergovernmental institutions, such as CERN and ESA.
and lay the ground for the policy orientation. This happens, in some occasion, in ETPS or Alliances.
but did not substitute the actors of this latter arena. 3. 2. Foresight objectives in the context of the three governance arenas We choose to focus our analysis on Foresight in connection with policy
Variable geometry policy coordination among Member States Programming: FP programmes priorities elaboration process, FP management ERA NETS, JITIS, ETP, ERC...
''At the same time this evolution is influenced by national institutional settings and policies, and also by European traditions in R&i collaboration and related policies and infrastructures.
In consequence, one can observe the evolution of different configurations entailing different forms and directions of organisation, inter-organisational research collaboration, use of research policy instruments,
expecting one general type of Knowledge dynamics (reaching from science to innovation) and one unique set of appropriate supportive public policies.
Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
This vision has de facto been considered by policy-makers at governmental and European level as the reference document for the orientation of research in this area.
European commission has developed an active policy in the field of N&n policy. It displays explicitly among the EU policies one dedicated to Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies.
The European Technology platform for Nanoelectronics European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC) was launched in 2004 with the mission to bring together all leading players in the field
One DG RTD service is specifically in charge of translating nano policy objectives into research programmes,‘‘Nano-and converging Sciences and Technologies''.
whose objective is the coordination of the national policies in fundamental research at the nanometric scale. ENIAC is one among the few ETP to have been developed further in a Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS.
and for nanotechnology appears as an interesting way for releasing current tensions that block this field of research a strategic orientation that could fit in a grand challengesbaase R&i policy 18.
Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, The State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, European commission EUR 20137 EN, Sevilla, 2001.4 L. Georghiou, Third Generation Foresight Integrating
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.10 B.-A°.Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation:
rethinking the role of policy, Enterprise and Innovation Management Studies 1 (1)( 2000) 73 102.17 O. Marsili, The Anatomy and Evolution of Industries:
(ERA), European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.19 D. Braun, Special issue on‘‘The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies'',Science and Public policy 35 (4)( 2008.
the case of the European union, Journal of European Public policy 3 (3)( 1996) 318 338.22 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Research policy 30
the open method of co-ordination in innovation policy, Journal of European Public policy 11 (2)( 2004) 249 266.24 R. Barre',Essai d'interpre'tation de
an analytical framework and key issues for research, Energy Policy 28 (9)( 2000) 625 640.32 A. Salo, T. Gustafsson, R. Ramanathan, Multicriteria methods for Technology foresight, Journal
evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism, Regional Studies 31 (5)( 1997) 533 544.36 G. C. Unruh, Understanding carbon lock in, Energy Policy 28 (12)( 2000
institutions versus policies, Science and Public policy 34 (5)( 2007) 303 316. A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:
and Policy in Europe, PRIME Network of Excellence, 2008.44 A. Schoen, P. van den Besselaar, L. Henriquez, P. Lare'do, D. Pardo, Search Regimes:
Presentation at the 2nd PRIME Indicators Conference on STI Indicators for Policy Addressing New Demands of Stakeholders, Oslo, 28 30,may 2008. 47 A. Bonaccorsi, The dynamics of science in the nano
Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science
and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta 1. Introduction The predominant focus of foresight 1 is frequently national research policy and strategy,
and innovation policy and strategy together and use of foresight for more joined-up policies and defining the appropriate policy mix.
A gradual awareness and general agreement for moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches is giving foresight an enhanced role in policy design tailored to particular context
Systemic and demand-side policies require a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers. The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood.
The success of demand-side measures such as cluster policies and the use of procurement or regulation to stimulate innovation is dependent upon the formation of a common vision between the supply
The second group is distinguished by focus on a particular policy domain, economic or otherwise, and use foresight to develop policy (or business strategy).
The third group is associated almost always with the verb‘‘to foster ''and reflects the aims of many exercises to promote networking between actors in research and innovation.
which addressed various aspects of R&d strategy or policy. From this analysis we may conclude already that foresight has moved on from the type of objective setting that typified the large national foresight programmes of the 1990s.
and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks
A key contention behind this exercise was that‘‘current policies are excessively technology-centric and may miss crucial emerging attributes of research and research actors in the knowledge society''.
The type of deficiencies that innovation policy seeks to correct include lack of integration also at the level of the policy framework itself,
They see this as indicative of a policy trend away from finance and towards that facilitation and monitoring of stakeholder processes that do not necessarily have a central agent.
More recently prominent demand-side policies include use of regulation and standards to stimulate innovation.
There has been a substantial increase in interest in demand-side policy, evidenced for example by the European commission's Lead Market Initiative 39.
In Europe where efforts have focused on increasing the public and private spend on R&d and Innovation, the extent of policy measures,
direct and indirect, has enhanced the expanding reach of R&i policy. This developments have important implications for foresight
foresight can be regarded as one of a number of policy tools for L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.
Corrective role addressing deficiencies and systemic failures and policy lock ins. Disruptive role encouraging an emphasis on crisis or breakthrough events
for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, Calle Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain d Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy
forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
in order to clarify (i) different roles of foresight in the innovation system and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy and societal developments.
and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
The first dimension addresses the type of main outcomes of the foresight project referring to its different kinds of impacts on the policy and society at large.
it is crucial to be able to develop also consensual visions and recommendations into action for policy and in more general decision-making processes. 2. 3. Chosen management approach:
Anticipation of intelligence (or knowledge) is a contribution to improve the knowledge base for the designing of policies.
which basis diverse policy options could be outlined. Other benefits that could be achieved through the Foresight process include creation of linkages among participants, development of a shared understanding on the various issues at stake,
Action proposals and policy recommendations. Diverse Alternative scenarios. Also identification of ICT applications with development potentials in Nordic region;
2020) and develop policy recommendations. Results were discussed with both DG Information society and DG Transport and Energy of the European commission.
Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.
the empirical part focuses on foresight and its respective implications on policy. A quick scan was performed on foresight projects that address security, sustainability and/or information society issues.
Subsequently, we discuss the impacts of the selected projects on policy in the four quadrants,
"Today, with the i2010 policy framework, the EU aims to"promote the positive contribution that information
For foresight activities on emerging issues that are not yet proven to be of high policy importance it may be difficult to engage policy-makers in the process.
specific efforts were made to engage policy-makers but with limited immediate success. This may be partly due to the initial positioning of the projects as informative rather than instrumental,
indirect and diffuse policy links during and after such projects may be influential in the long run, however. Consensual and informative foresight processes in Asian countries such as Japan5, China6 and Korea, seem to have important role both in enhancing national systems as well as in the international communication.
but they were meant not as such to engage policy-makers in the process. In practice, the technology foresight in Korea and China has borrowed lots of experiences from technology foresight projects in Japan. 3. 3. Priorities foresight (consensual perspectives
policy interests may also enter in the foresight process and create rigidities and difficulties to provide new and fresh perspectives for change.
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
for example, the implementation of S&t policies may call for a sufficient degree of consensus about appropriate policy instruments (e g.,
Our analysis supports the thesis that different classes of foresight projects have respective different types of impacts on policy and society.
but this does not necessarily lead to immediate actions or identification of policy options. Foresight with instrumental outcomes is likely to be designed
and lead to development of actions and therefore also its usefulness and effectiveness for supporting policy-making is more evident.
In many cases, policy-makers do not refer to the sources used when decisions are made. Almost all the analysed projects have outcomes that can be characterised as consensual.
but mainly to draw conclusions on how foresight can be improved as an instrument contributing to knowledge creation for policy and decision-making in more general.
which is increasingly based on evidence base at all policy levels and for all policy domains. Furthermore, in order to better address major societal challenges with foresight and other FTA ACTIVITIES
impacts and implications for policy and decision making, in: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at:
A Guide to Futures research, Sage, Beverly hills, 1983.12 R. Barre',Synthesis of technology foresight, in Strategic policy Intelligence:
Strategic policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2001
A whole class of economic models, routinely used to inform policy, are based on assumptions about economic affairs tending towards equilibrium that have very little relation with the behaviour of businesses (especially innovating enterprises).
and political expediency, combining in an unholy melee, in common with many other policy initiatives. Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;
AHP=analytic hierarchy process; ANP=analytic network process; MCA=multiple criteria analysis. 5 Thus the likely incidence of disease following a radioactive leak of a specific amount can be estimated on the basis of laboratory research and epidemiology;
This reflectsawareness that it isimpossible foroneall-knowing policy organisation or level of government to grasp all of the intelligence that is needed to make sense of future challenges and opportunities.
where policy or strategy implications and priorities are elaborated; and so on. The process usually involves much dialogue,
possible actions and implications for policy explored. The analysis of drivers and shapers may be conducted in plenary (in smaller workshops,
because it could help‘‘identify research and policy options...11 For an overview of the engagement process, see Rogers-Hayden and Pidgeon 39;
Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.16 M. Jaspers, H. Banthien, J. Mayer-Ries, New forms
However, the discussion about multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making has received very little attention from the FTA COMMUNITY who have taken for granted that FTA ACTIVITIES are participative.
If the achievement of equity and governance is the ultimate aims for policy making, then high quality participation,
Available online 26 november 2010 A b s T R A c T FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies.
regulation and public policy 8. The shift from technocratic decision making towards more democratic processes can be captured in the concept of governance.
restrain or block public policies are recognised. It also involves the positive contributions of corporations, institutions and associations to enhance public policy within a new framework,
which emphasises the interactive and interdependent nature of the new regulatory environment. According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by
Policy documents, such as the European commission's White paper on Governance 10 reflect the need to move beyond formal processes of government and public administration,
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 281 As a counter-argument, Olsen 11 suggests that the process of governance may not always produce a precise and stable policy outcome.
One of the reasons for this is that not all stakeholders have the resources to be involved in policy making processes.
-Create policy processes amenable to current and future issues with the characteristics of trans science 16 that require direct public participation.
or are affected by the policy decisions taken''(p. 3). The newgovernance and stakeholder approach has various implications for the relationships between the society, corporate industrial activities and public governance.
The implications of this approach for relationships between the society and public policy explain the shift from the government to governance.
and facilitate policy making taking into account the active involvement of society and the requirements of the new governance systems.
and to policies aiming to improve social cohesion. In Europe cohesion policy is seen as the bestway to foster regional development
and convergence since itempowers citizens actively to shape their future and encourages an integrated approach to development
Sustainable development can be characterised as long term social learning oriented by public policies, which are driven by a national plan of between regions and within regions endogenous development.
enabled with policies 22 that keep and expand the natural resources base. Sustainability emerges from the exhaustion crisis of economic development based on rational‘
Their aimis to ensure thatmnes operate in harmony with the policies of the countries where they operate.
Ultimately any government's interests lie in the‘nuts and bolts'of policy that involve the synthesis of possibilities from the two lower boxes in Fig.
and/or recommending priorities, mainly for RTDI policies and strategies, towards that of embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making.
Being able to respond to the questions posed in Section 7 of this paper is critical to making such a shift.
37 S. A. Aaronson, J. Reeves, The European response to public demands for global corporate responsibility, National policy Association, USA (2002.
Subsequently, Section 4 discusses the implications of the findings on policy and strategy. Finally, Section 4 draws the overall conclusions and rounds off the paper. 2. Definitions of terminology Trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities,
and questions for policy 1. Work conducted within the scope of the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) included a strong element of scanning in the form of detecting
policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. What is interesting about trends is that normally most players,
Driver of change examples Climate policies and resource practices; Major S&t developments and their societal impacts;
Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
Environmental policies and practices that are enacted to change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures such as recycling requirements.
may create discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate treaties design and promulgation;
and fundamentally alters the previous pathways or expected direction of policies, events and planning regimes.
(FTA) 2008 Conference, previous FTA meetings tended to focus on methodology, policy linkages and success factors for Foresight design & delivery.
& Security 35 Cooperative and concerted policies among nations Nuclear proliferation-incidence from terrorism in Middle east Renewed awareness of the limits to growth Uni-bio-multi-polar world
ecological behaviour reverse perception of a resource scarce world Discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate change Breakdown of world order Resource scarcity creates new motivations
J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 310 4. Conclusions and implications on policy and strategy The following implications from the outputs of the Big Picture Survey
The survey responses provide a rich and diverse array of issues that cover most of the provocative policy issues now engaging public debate and offer a new set of prospective future issues as well;
The range and tone of these policy relevant topics is certainly very wide, reflecting perhaps more
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010) 7 18.2 S. Rijkers-Defrasne, E. Amanatidou, A. Braun, A. Pechmann,
4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010
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