there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.
but also some relatively short-term and practicable policy actions. Itmust be recognised that significant limitations on the impact of fta liewith the receptors.
and had a special emphasis on the delivery of policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES on policy and decision-making processes.
and its publicity so there is maximum opportunity for those who might apply FTA to their policy
This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.
Findings FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
and limitations of implementing FTA METHODS in a variety of policy domains, but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
Keywords Future-oriented technology analysis, FTA, Grand challenges, Forward looking activities T oday's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment go beyond current national policies.
Grand challenges are interrelated usually and have an effect on different scales ranging from global to local.
which interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses. In this way the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events is enhanced through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights.
Furthermore, FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
and to reduce risks and uncertainties in transport decision-making. In a second paper, Horton argues that policy-making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
and to develop an understanding of their interconnectedness and their implications on potential policy options.
His professional challenge is connecting science and policy. On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment,
offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers. Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government, where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
Thomas led several foresight projects, among them the FP-financed SANDERA study on the future interaction of security policy and the European research area.
Potential effects of policy interventions should be assessed; risk and uncertainties should be reduced; unintended effects should be avoided.
however, that in many cases transport policy and its projected outcomes are considered highly controversial. Critical attitudes towards the projected outcomes of planning processes are fed surely by experiences with previous transportation projects,
Not least because of this complexity, the effects of policy interventions in the transport sector are not entirely predictable,
and methods for the anticipation of unintended effects of transport policies are applied to give guidance and orientation for planning processes.
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
On the contrary, typical, widely used transportation planning tools more often than not provide the impression that the consequences of policy interventions like new infrastructure projects,
since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties
a laissez faire policy(‘‘do nothing'')might as well lead to the same type of consequences. The question then is how to provide policy making with the best available knowledge about the impacts of interventions (that achieve the intended goals
and have limited side effects) without forgetting that the reliability of these information is limited, varying and depending on the nature of these information themselves.
since it aims at tackling the problem of unintended effects of policy interventions, which is rooted often in the knowledge-base of decision making 1. 3. The methods:‘‘
From a policy analysis perspective, the transport system, with its components and their interrelations, could be understood as an abstract conceptual model
and their quantification Reduce exposure to the hazardous agent Strategy type Precaution Precautionary prevention Prevention Examples Car friendly urban policy in the 1960's leading to congestion several years
Car friendly urban policy in the 1960's leading to urban sprawl. From a 1970's perspective:
Remaining with this‘‘web of nodes''-model, a policy intervention in the transport sector directly affects at least one, maybe several of these nodes.
The model illustrates that a policy intervention can lead to widely ranging effects, and some of them may only become visible after the measure was implemented.
which they seek to PAGE 286 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 integrate knowledge of experts, stakeholders and also of laypeople in the process of policy making.
and losses of undertaking a new project or a policy. All gains and losses thought to be relevant are measured in the same units to enable Table II Categorisation of FTA METHODS Structurally open methods Structurally closed methods No fixed setting Predefined setting Mainly explorative More or less clear understanding of relevant
Similar to CBA, a rough understanding of the causal relation relevant for a policy intervention is needed to applymca.
where certain policy interventions are tested''to get a better understanding of the related causal relations and of the anticipated effects.
and structurally closed methods in a careful and transparent manner. 5. Conclusions Policy interventions in the transport sector have to consider risks and uncertainties,
which become visible in the form of unintended effects after policies have been implemented. A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
None of the tools and methods are able to‘‘guarantee''that no unintended effects occur.
on their potential role for gaining knowledge that is needed for anticipating unintended effects of policies.
''Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 72, pp. 1064-9. Grunwald, A. 2007),‘Working towards sustainable development in the face of uncertainty and incomplete knowledge'',Journal of Environmental policy and Planning, Vol. 9
Cost-benefit analysis and Environmental policy-Making, Edward Elgar, London. Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
qualitative and quantitative tools and methods to detect unintended effects of transport policies, ''paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Glasgow, 12 october.
Parthasarati, P. and Levinson, D. 2010),‘Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast studies'',Transport Policy, Vol. 17, pp. 428-43.
inventory of measures, typology of non-intentional effects and a framework for policy packaging, available at:
-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward
Walker, E w.,Marchau, V. and Swanson, D. 2010),‘Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: introduction to section 2'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, pp. 917-23.
Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system. Findings Complexity science demonstrates that disruptive events do need not an associated trigger
Instead, policy making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
and later derive implications for the application of foresight in policy making. There are five relevant elements of complex systems:
''Rules can be laws and policies but also values and perspectives: The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to accommodate changes in the basic rules.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 295 Systems can also be unexpectedly very stable highly resistant to change by policy intervention-or very unstable such as where a policy intervention leads to stream of unexpected changes
For example a city's policy to increase the number of cabs available to go to the suburbs may have no effect
or a policy to ensure clean cabs may simply result in cab drivers carrying around instant cleaning kits to use
Such phase change is increasing recognised as common in public policy; as organisational systems (people) adapt to the new environmental parameters (policies) the system can change radically, Ridgeway et al.
2000). ) Equally, there can be long periods of (apparent) stability, (called‘‘attractors''as they are states to which the system is attracted)
''which can which render policies utterly ineffective: The implication is that foresight techniques need to accommodate phase change situations,
Failed policy cannot be repealed and things started again from scratch it has had already an irreversible effect;
and policies) and not cut off future options. But some of these options may not make any sense now they may only do so as the landscape evolves
and essential profile of a system can change (where rules can be laws and policies,
and to generate an understanding of these different perspectives on potential policy options. B Enable the generation of a range of future options
and potential policies. In general we are trained to think in terms of linear causality; doing anything else is difficult, disturbing, and different.
employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
or ludicrous policy where a lack of foresight is obvious in retrospect. The lesson is often that the environment/time/space/area in
The key insight of complexity-based foresight for policy making is that command and control approaches do not work in complex systems.
''and so policy operating in a complex system cannot achieve a specific outcome directly. Instead, policy making needs to embrace emergence to exploit the developing behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system;
specifically policy makers must focus on the idea of interactions rather than a system's constituent parts
and what it may mean for policy making. For example, emergence is a process of change and embracing it can mean choosing to respond, continuously, to that change, sympathetically and synergistically rather than a controlling, combative style:
What then could embracing emergence mean for policy making? Simplistically, it is about understanding the system, in terms of a system's interactions rather than its component parts,
so that policy is designed to stimulate evolution rather than to force control. Such policy making requires iterative monitoring of the emerging changes,
to ensure that the desirable ones are supported and the undesirable ones diverted. Axelrod and Cohen (2001) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 299 describe the idea of harnessing complexity to deliberately change the structure of the system,
Again, policy makers need to watch for the‘‘emergent''properties that arise as a system organises itself following a policy intervention,
and use that policy to preserve the conditions in which the best solutions arise. With these perspectives, the link with,
In terms of policy making‘‘‘‘embracing emergence''can be seen as very different to many FTA techniques. Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results
and policy options for that final outcome, rather than on a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the components,
Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), have considered how complexity-based foresight can be applied to policy making.
and intellectually satisfying to re-invent the whole policy making process in the light of complexity-based foresight,
the current (and historic) general policy making environment is likely to be the one in which implications for the application of complexity-based foresight in policy making will take place, at least for a while.
We will therefore use a simple, generic, policy-making model, Table II adapted from Bhimji (2009)- direction,
whereby a policy is more able to work as its environment changes while many of the policy interventions will fail
(and failures are a normal feature of complex systems) having several options increases the likelihood that at least one option will succeed.
Promoting variation in practical policy making terms can mean using several options to achieve an intended outcome as implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.
reframing can Table II A simple policy making model Policy direction! Policy design! Policy delivery Objectives Objectives Objectives Discover new policy problems
or opportunities Identify policy options Implement policy Scope or define a policy area and determine a vision Test policy options Monitor policy Source:
Adapted from Bhimji (2009) PAGE 300 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 bring the benefits of realising that there are more variations than originally thought of
and of creating something outside the original cone of possibilities. But promoting variation can also be viewed as a set of‘‘parallel experiments''being undertaken simultaneously with the aim of achieving a common objective.
Here, reframing can bring several benefits. For example, providing an awareness of existing frames and ways of seeing,
demonstration that those ways of seeing are driven and constrained by particular values or expectations, and being able to deconstruct an existing frame to demonstrate that a particular way of seeing is being used.
and implementing a range of alternative policy options to meet the various needs of different stakeholders.
Using a mix of policy instruments, exploring synergies with other policies, providing opportunities for risk-spreading,
and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective
and adapt as needed by reviewing what policy interventions would usefully create or destroy variety and considering if the variety that results can offer potential value.
Table III shows how promoting variation can be applied in practice at each stage of the simplified policy making process:
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
Table III Implementation of promoting variation in policy making Policy direction Policy design Policy delivery Discover new policy problems
or opportunities Identify policy options Implement policy Scope or define a policy area and determine visions Test policy options Monitor policy 1. Understand the varied expertise
and resources are required to generate different visions 1. Create and enable an environment for variation to occur 1. Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation
and benefits accrued for each policy option 2. Encourage the adoption and deployment of these different visions through appropriate policies to minimize risks 2. Design
and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective 2. Review of the efficiency of the policy options as newer conditions unfold
and emerge 3. Identify and characterise the potential risks of the different visions 3. Provide a range of policy options 3. Monitor
and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level
where variation needs to be promoted 5. Reframing and similar techniques can be used 5. See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent 5. Observe which policies work well
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
rely on external planning and forecasting. They should enable visioning of phase change situations (with no early warning signals) and the resulting changed world.
In particular they need to provide methods and skills (such as reframing) to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones that are considered not possible now,
and to enable users to develop an understanding of implications these different perspectives on potential policy options.
Policy making In a complex system (which all societies are need) policy makers to recognise that systems are all about relationships and interactions between the constituent parts rather than about the details of the constituent parts.
where the‘‘rules''can be laws and policies, but also values and perspectives. Policy making needs to take place with the knowledge that that disruptive events will happen
and will be unexpected, even with the best horizon scanning system in place. Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.
Policy making must use techniques such as Reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones not possible now,
and to understand the implications of these different perspectives on potential policy options. Policy making needs Foresight techniques to enable the generation of a range of future options
and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, ludicrous,
or even impossible today. References Axelrod, R. 1985), The Evolution of Cooperation, reprinted ed.,Basic books, New york, NY.
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
Ridgeway, J.,Zawojewski, J. S. and Hoover, M. N. 2000),‘Problematising evidence-based policy and practice'',Evaluation and Research in Education, Vol. 14 Nos
Swanson, D. and Bhadwal, S. 2009), Creating Adaptive Policies: A Guide for Policymaking in an Uncertain World, Sage Publications, Ottowa.
especially backcasting, can be used to assist public policy formulation. Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context,
is a useful tool in public policy formulation. It is important to note, however, that in the way the exercise was carried out in this case,
and designing alternative ways of achieving predetermined policy goals, experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature.
This paper addresses this deficiency and presents experiences of one such case. These experiences should be of interest to those involved in long-range strategy planning.
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
cost-effectiveness of climate policy and mainstreaming of the climate perspective among the general population.
Before and partly simultaneously while preparing the government foresight report on climate and energy policy, the government also decided on a long-term climate
and reflecting between different policy alternatives that all are able to produce the determined development goals.
which climate and energy policy should focus Futures workshop October 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:
housing and industry) in cutting down the GHG's. Other background questions related to societal conditions that affect the way different aspects of climate policy would be received in the Finnish society.
Results and policy implications The final results of the foresight process were four scenarios that all fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 per cent from the 1990's levels
There were also positive factors in the Finnish society that favour the attainment of the climate policy goals.
External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009.
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
and education policy. Bottlenecks hindering the growth of new business opportunities for low-emission technology and applications should be analysed and removed.
Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
Backcasting is used often in policy planning owing to its normative nature. This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,
All in all, one can conclude that using futures studies methods in public policy formulation have promising possibilities. Especially participatory methods where views of various different VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 313 experts are considered are recommended highly.
as cognitive food for different policy options. Notes 1. Summary of the strategy is available on the web site of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy:
transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030'',Transport Policy, Vol. 14, pp. 377-87.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
a proposed method of policy analysis'',Energy Policy, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 337-44. Robinson, J. 1990),‘Futures under glass:
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
In the early 1970s15 this more and more changed to a means for better policy analysis. During the 1980's, TA developed towards a policy instrument,
where TA is used to support policy-making. Nevertheless developments of TA were leading to different approaches in the United states compared to Europe.
In the United states TA kept to policy analysis, while in Europe the approach is focussed more on addressing different social groups.
opportunities and uncertainties, RS Policy document, 2004.15 H. W. Kroto, J. R. Heath, S. C. O'brien, R. F. Curl, R. E. Smalley, C60:
Shaping technology, Guiding Policy: Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2002, pp. 359 385.
and guided by a set of public policies, formulated at various administrative levels, and it is geared to satisfy the real estate demands of citizens, business and institutions.
Finally, foresight requires certain policies that may be difficult to implement in emerging territorial institutions with little real power.
economic models and public policies towards SD. 2. Horizontal axis. Showed the availability of resources needed to achieve the sustainable development goals in the future.
public policies regarding urban development are decentralised very much at the regional and local level. Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies,
and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
Municipal policies are implemented strictly through norms and regulations. In this context, the planning value chain is fragmented very much
and implementing urban sustainable policies at the regional and local level, European and national public agents have taken over policy making.
A strong government, backed by a wide spectrum of the electorate, is formed to implement effective policies against the economic and environmental crisis. Regional
and local governments can dictate territorial strategies and urban guidelines, but they are under strict control and surveillance by the authorities in Brussels and Madrid.
Simple mathematical algorithm Proximity to bycycle network meters 380 Close 200 Far 500 Midway 300 Normative policies Water consumption m3/pc
In this context, there is a need for strict policies and measures to prevent or minimize the generation of heavy environmental impact:
Emerging from the crisis and implementing sustainable development policies requires radical proposals led by social movements: B Build a social fortress based on family networks and Third Sector organizations to survive in a tough economic context.
B Prevent the outburst of social conflicts through the implementation of ambitious inclusive social policies. B Set up an educational system aligned with new social and environmental values.
the scope of legal research supporting policy decision-making tends to be rather restrictive, looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. to find the factual evidence to justify its policy recommendations.
thus to support the policy/legal recommendations advanced in projects of this kind, and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future.
'(or‘policy wind tunnel')to explore techno-socioeconomic-environmental systems, in order to give decision-makers a better, integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011).
response, training, and policy. These fact-based approaches promise to increase citizen and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,
Second, there is a growing interest in exploring how regulatory policies can be based more evidence and supported by empirical findings.
More evidence-based approaches to the assessment of regulatory quality allow a review of the effectiveness of policy tools used in practice
but also an improvement of the design and implementation of future policies. FTA can thus contribute to the fulfilment of these two goals,
and the empirical data required for this new generation of evidence-based legislative procedures and policy actions,
as well as reinforcing the political accountability of policy (and law makers. With the incorporation of FTA instruments, the revision of laws and the design of future ones would be complemented with better quality assessment procedures.
as well as the performance of ex post evaluation of regulations (which is part of the progress development of regulatory policies,
Predictive policy, as we saw before, brings important benefits to law enforcement authorities, namely the prevention of criminal activity and the better management and deployment of police resources.
as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
but to the broader term of regulatory policies, it is important to mention the paper of Knut Blind:
and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention. The paper thus underlines that foresight methodologies can be applied for identifying
as noted by Johnston (2008)‘‘served to inform Congressional interests as they considered legislative policy options''.
which advises the European parliament in policy issues involving scientific and technological options. Recurring again to Johnston's (2008) observations,
which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
''and that‘‘specific initiatives are needed to shape the collaboration between science and policy''.''As a proposed solution, De Smedt argued that‘‘f urther initiatives on IA tools should
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4
ex post evaluation of regulatory policies'',Proceedings of the OECD Expert Meeting, September, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Porter, A l. and Cunningham, S w. 2005
Tu bke, A.,Ducatel, K.,Gavigan, J. P. and Moncada, P. Eds)( 2001), Strategic policy Intelligence:
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