In both countries, the public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
and visionary policy documents have been a main source for analyzing the social and political dimensions of nanotechnology in the broad range of STS,
though they seem to be very different phenomena with regard to the funding and policy dynamics in the fields.
and engineering investigations with social science and policy research from the outset 44. This concept also stems from the NNI6
the activities under the umbrella of the National science and Technology Council Subcommittee were per se closely policy-related and, in the last decade,
nanotechnology has been on the policy agenda of the federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) since the late 1990s.
and making policy recommendations. From1988 to 1998, the technology field wasmonitored by analyzing the literature,
build up policy networks, as well as shape and prepare funding programs. FTA in the governance of nanotechnology started with forecasting activities
449 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 In this later stage, heterogeneous stakeholders beyond the actors of the early established nano-policy networks
making it unclear to what degree these activities are related policy. Unlike in the US, the BMBF does not include the input from the social sciences in setting a future agenda.
The NNI's early nanotechnology assessment studies indicated to the public that policy was based on scientific knowledge information
The early study exercises provided justification for a policy that was under consideration (symbolic function) and the results lead to policy conceptualization,
design and implementation (informing policy and supporting policy definition). The capacity for change (facilitating policy implementation, embedding participation in policy-making
and reconfiguring the policy system) was enhanced by building networks among government departments, agencies, industry and a broad variety of academic disciplines.
The new vision embraces participation at the conceptual level but it remains unclear how the highly ambitious concept will be implemented and
In Germany, early FTA ACTIVITIES also provided justification for a policy under consideration (symbolic function) and were used also for policy conceptualization,
design and implementation (informing policy and supporting policy definition). Unlike in the US, the governance network in Germany is centralized around one ministry (the BMBF) lacking a continuously working governance structure to bring together the variety of actors involved in nano-related innovation processes.
Other ministries, such as the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) focus on regulation issues relevant for their domain without being involved fully in the ecosystem of nano-related Innovation policy definition
and implementation is organized not by involving a broad variety of stakeholders and the policy system remains unchanged.
Both in the US and Germany, actors conducting early FTA did not claim to have a broad impact on public policy,
Future oriented activities that are linked not directly with decision making in policy such as public engagement activities organized by researchers in the US
The German nanotechnology policy in contrast, has no continuously operating nano-related inter-organizational setting;
F. Jotterand (Ed.),Emerging Conceptual, Ethical and Policy issues in Bionanotechnology, Springer, Netherlands, 2008, pp. 43 63.13 P. Schaper-Rinkel, Governance von Zukunftsversprechen:
Policy Res. 28 (2011) 197 217.24 M. Powell, D. L. Kleinman, Building citizen capacities for participation in nanotechnology decision-making:
Policy 7 (2005) 64.27 M. Keenan, R. Barré, C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis: future directions, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.
Policy 37 (2008) 888.54 ETC Group action Group on Erosion, Technology and Concentration), Size matters! The case for a global moratorium.
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
The INFU findings were documented in a number of reports and policy briefs which can be found on the project website. 1
and inventors but a couple of people fromindustry and two policy-makers also took part. The focus was mainly on Europe but one expert fromchina,
These findings imply newtopics and approaches to innovation policy as outlined in the INFU policy briefs.
Finally, policy implications arising from the changing nature of innovation were discussed with policy makers from various realms and levels in interviews and within one dedicated policy workshop.
Across policy perspectives the need for different types of innovation policy instruments to deal with newly emerging innovation patterns rather than just different priorities was stressed.
In particular the policy actors welcomed the fact that INFU underpinned the exploration of fundamental changes in the innovation landscape rather than isolated responses to individual trends. 3. 2. Lessons learnt methodology From a methodological point of view the aim of the INFU project was to contribute towards building
new types of R&d projects and pathways for integration of policy strategies across diverse policy realms.
Developing Policy-oriented Scenarios, Earthscan Publ. Ltd. London u. a.,2010.19 F. Liebl, Rethinking trends
5. 1), www. innovation-futures. org 2011.30 K.-H. Leitner, W. Rhomberg, P. Warnke, E. Schirrmeister, A. Kasztler, INFU Policy strategy Report
Philine Warnke is a researcher in the Foresight & Policy development Department of the Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in Vienna.
such policies have veered generally away from activity that could be perceived as near-to-market or
and more by a process of geological accretion where the structures and policy styles of earlier decades continue, perhaps with some diminution,
) Nonetheless we may discern some new policy tendencies as well as some reinforcement of preexisting trends. For science the need to demonstrate impact dominates the policy agenda in some countries
and even the most responsive-mode oriented of European programmes, the European research Council (ERC) has seen fit to launch an activity targeted at exploitation of results.
The bigger change in policy is in the domain of strategic and applied research where the notion of grand or societal challenges has risen to prominence,
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008.5 J. Cassingena Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technol.
Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 140 152.13 A. Schoen T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber
Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS
He is active in policy advice to governments and business and as Vice-president for Research and Innovation at the University of Manchester.
Her research interests are foresight and STI policy with a particular emphasis on small and transition economies.
and R&i policy at the European and international level, serving on a number of EU expert groups. 470 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467
and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen delve into the national policy context for FTA by drawing on insights from sociology and anthropology.
The paper stresses national governance culture as the most decisive contextual element to be taken into account in the design of policy oriented national FTAS.
and assess differences between policy foresight at the local/regional and national levels. By evaluating six Dutch Foresight exercises from the point of view of policy makers as‘‘users''of foresight studies they highlight the importance of taking into account differences between the national and local level when designing an FTA PROCESS.
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
Initially the more mature and recognized technology assessment strand appeared to offer both a stronger research base and a more direct connection to policy.
and on the other hand, an account of ways to think about policy options based on the indeterminacy of complex emergent innovation systems
unable to generate the cumulative and competitive processes of knowledge creation that make such gatherings powerful vehicles for advancing research and policy.
as if FTA TOOLS and Foresight more generally are used just to respond to policy and business questions as they arise,
The first issue concerns the integration of foresight into national policy-making processes. Foresight projects have often been carried out as stand-alone activities
This lack of impact has led policy-makers to require that the content of foresight exercises relate to current political agendas
and that their processes relate to policy making processes 1. Academic research has explored also this issue, focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
(b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making, and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight.
but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
but more willing to implement bold new policies that may result from a foresight exercise. The second implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to the meaning of time
Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight and similar systematic processes in policy making in science, technology and innovation policies or other policy areas.
Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.
Consequently, there was less need for policy mechanisms like foresight to define priorities for the governmental expenditure on r&d.
Denmark has established a well tradition of policy evaluation, which also includes science and innovation policies. The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
But this context has changed during the recent decade. Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased.
In conclusion, historically, Denmark has had a weak tradition of applying foresight and similar systematic, forwardloookin processes in national-level policy making.
'1 Hence, technology foresight was seen to be part of the government's business policy and not, in particular, part of science policy,
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 project This section briefly describes two cases of forward-looking policy making in Denmark.
The Globalisation Strategy aimed at a very broad range of policy areas. This strategy provided political impetus for the Research2015 project,
and for creating distance from the certainties of the past Daring new policies, such as the Globalisation Strategy's initiatives on political priority setting for strategic research and the allocation of 50%more public funding for research, require a degree of risk taking
Due to the low degree of power distance in Denmark, major societal stakeholders expect to be involved in the development process of national research policy strategies.
Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties
national foresight exercises must be integrated better into the actual national policy making processes. We also proceeded from the perception that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to national foresight exercises.
and using foresight in policy making. To qualify the concept of national governance culture, we have suggested drawing on the classical work of Geert Hofstede.
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (May 4))(2008) 462 482.6 O. Saritas, Systemic foresight methodology, in:
BX Delft, The netherlands 1. Introduction Government organisations design policies for a future full of uncertainties. Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties
and to design policies that are more future-proof. Knowledge about the future can be gathered,
structured and applied in different ways by using various foresight methods (see, among other things, 1). In this article,
Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
and experiences of local and national Dutch policymakker in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes.
Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods,
and the barriers and leverage points experienced by policy-makers are described and compared at the local and the national level.
Different insights are related to different activities in the policy cycle i e.,, agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation.
In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a‘supply-driven'point of view, by
, that of policy-makers who have applied the results of foresight methods in policy-making processes. The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses
in depth interviews, and questionnaire research involving users in the local and national policy domain. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved.**Corresponding author at: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.010 method is used in the creation of strategic policy and (2)
what policy-makers consider to be added its value. In various studies, the added value for strategic policy-making processes has been emphasised:
the use of the scenario analysis method makes policy-makers more aware of the future, future changes and the policy implications,
and government organisations learn to anticipate by developing more robust policies, etc. 2 5. We examine
whether these theoretical assumptions correspond to the experiences of policy-makers in their everyday practice. According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,
and in particular in strategic policy processes in the public domain. In this paper, we argue that, by paying more attention to the user perspective in the public domain
we may be able to gain insight into the value added of scenario method 6 7. 2. Research approach 2. 1. Research questions In setting up
, that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis and using their perceptions as a measure of the perceived added value.
The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
the motives policy-makers have for using the scenario analysis method, and the perceived levers and barriers.
We combine these insights with the different elements or phases of a policy cycle: in which phase (s) of the policy cycle is the scenario analysis method used,
and how and in which phase (s is added the value perceived. With respect to the policy cycle, we draw a distinction between the phases of agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making,
policy implementation and policy evaluation (see 8). Indeed, according to literature, scenario analysis methods can be used in the different phases of the policy cycle 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 11.
Because we are interested not only in the impact of using scenario analysis methods in the different phases of the policy cycle,
but also in the factors that affect the potential impact on the policy process, we look at the perceived levers and barriers as well.
We focused on the following research questions at the national and local levels: How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods?
What are their motives for applying scenario analysis methods? How are used the results in the strategic policy process,
and in which phase (s) specifically? What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes?
Which levers and barriers do they perceive when applying foresight methods in strategic policy processes? What are the similarities and differences in the application of foresight methods to strategic policy processes between the local and national level?
These research questions imply a clear focus on policy-making in the public domain (see, for example, 15) and on the perceptions of policy-makers,
because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods
and data sources We compared experiences at the local level with experiences at the national level.
At the local level, we adopted a casebaase approach to increase our understanding of the key issues involved.
Four case studies were analysed, focusing on different settings of strategic policy-making in The netherlands. Each case involved experiences with the application of scenario analysis methods at a regional and/or local policy level (including municipalities and regional authorities.
The strategic policy processes in the Dutch municipality of Overschie (a district of the municipality of Rotterdam), the Dutch province of Limburg,
the municipality of The hague and the province of Overijssel were assessed. The cases were selected on the basis of
whether they involved the use of scenarios for strategic policy-making and whether there was sufficient willingness to cooperate with the study and access to civil servants for interviews and other data sources.
Policy-makers from the provincial organisation were involved more thoroughly in the development of the scenarios. The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
The case of Trendbureau of Overijssel includes different foresight exercises for strategic policy processes of city councils and the provincial organisation itself, focusing on different policy themes.
and carries out foresight studies for local policy organisations and organises debates and workshops to increase awareness about possible future changes.
The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents. The insights from this analysis were juxtaposed with the insights from the interviews.
The first study conducted by the authors examined how Dutch departments use foresight to develop policy and strategy 23(‘policy foresight'.
'Thirteen interviews were conducted with strategists and policy-makers. The interviews consisted of two parts:(1) an analysis of what foresight means to the interviewees
and (2) an analysis of the way policy and strategy processes take place. Although all thirteen ministries were involved,
and strategy are related in policy processes at a national level, this was not a problem
policy and strategy. The response rate was over 40%(120 surveys completed) with a large majority of the respondents (88%)working for Dutch Ministries (such as Justice and Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.
Both national studies were aimed predominantly at determining how policy-makers link studies of the future to policy development.
which futures research was applied to policy and organisational development. This research approach is different from the research at the local level;
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?
In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.
Especially at the level of city councils, it is hard to find examples of strategic policy activities using scenario analysis methods,
Some policy-makers mentioned that, when using foresight methods for the first time, it can be difficult to find out how these methods relate to other methods with which they may be more familiar (such as SWOT-analyses,
'The‘policy foresight'analysis showed that, in addition to scenarios (with which 99%of the respondents were familiar),
and underpin new policies and visions. This motive is defined by Da Costa et al. 25 as the function of‘informing policy':
'the supply of anticipatory knowledge or‘intelligence, 'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,
we see that the function of informing policy is leading, both at the national and the local level.
such as facilitating policy implementation (i e.,, interpreting policy and strategy development as a continuous reflexive learning process) and embedding participation in policy-making,
were mentioned less frequently. One of the differences between the national level and the local level is that
At the national level, motives range from gathering inspiration for new policies to formulating specific strategic policies,
to put (new) policy issues on the policy agenda designing policies (policy preparation phase: to build argumentation for a long term policy vision
and policy strategies innovating (policy preparation phase): to gather inspiration for innovative policy visions and policy strategies testing policies (policy preparation phase:
to gain insight into how future-proof and future-oriented policies really are evaluating policies (after implementation:
to identify signposts to be monitored in order to determine whether policy assumptions develop in accordance with the intended direction and velocity of change N. Rijkens-Klomp,
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),
the motive is said to be driven process. Examples of process-driven motives are: stimulating interdepartmental dialogue gathering support for ideas and policies developing a common cognitive frame of reference (a common ground of understanding)( see also 5, 11) Finally,
all motives have to do with learning about the future, at an individual and group level 13,14. 3. 3. How are used the results in the strategic policy process, in which phase?
The results of the cases made it clear that, at the local level, it is still difficult to connect the insights of a scenario exercise to different steps in a strategic policy process.
Scenario exercises themselves are seen mostly as a project, not as an ongoing strategic process. It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.
An effort has been made, as part of this research, to identify some of the levers and barriers related to this linkage problem (see below).
The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(1) signalling new developments,
(2) inspiring civil servants to come up with new ideas for policy and strategy,(3) setting the agenda.
Agendasetttin seems to be important both at the local and national level. Apparently, when the time to make a decision comes closer,
futures research appears to play a role in the early phases of the strategic policy processes, agenda setting and (in part) policy preparation.
and the strategic policy-process is closer at the national level than it is at the regional level.
At the national level, the connection is especially close at the start of the policy cycle, although this connection becomes looser later on.
At the local level, it seems to be difficult at any phase in the policy cycles to use the results of scenario studies in an optimal way. 3. 4
. What is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes according to policy-makers? To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits
of using foresight methods. By the look of things, this inter-sectoral approach is unlikely to be taken for granted within local governmental organisations.
The use of foresight studies stimulated mutual learning processes, allowing participants to learn from each other's perspectives on the future and providing them with a common foundation for future policies.
which relates to the function of reconfiguring the policy system, as mentioned by Costa et al. 25,
which in turn implies that foresight exercises can lead to the reconfiguration of a policy system and increase its ability to meet major challenges.
and strategic policies have to be developed, future-related assumptions are made in an intuitive and opaque way.
policy-makers are forced to be transparent about the assumptions underlying their policies and clearly indicate the factors
In the past, some local policy-makers experienced a tendency among politicians to underpin policies by most likely scenarios.
Another notable result from the local level case studies is that the respondents did not perceive the potential added value of foresight studies for policy innovation (see also, the conclusion by 26.
When we compare the local level results to the two national policy foresight'studies, it becomes clear that there is a greater focus on content at the national level,
while local policy-makers are oriented more process. In addition, we discovered a kind of connection paradox at the national level.
Finally, in all the local case studies, the policy-makers indicated that future exploration methods were used in a suboptimal fashion.
and embedded in on-going policy development processes. For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
Scenarios are meant also to test the robustness and N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies,
In the strategic policy documents, we discovered that this connection between scenarios and strategies is also (in part) lacking.
Often, it was unclear how the insights from the foresight study were applied in the policy analyses.
Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes? We tried to determine why foresight methods are used not to their full potential (as expressed, for example,
which levers and barriers were encountered by policy-makers involved in the in depth interviews. 3. 5. 1. Knowledge
and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process.
For example policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use
and whether to develop new scenarios or use existing ones. They have no clear guidelines that take the dynamics of the policy landscape and different stages of strategic policy processes into account.
When people are not familiar with the scenario analysis method, steering elements are implemented sometimes in the scenarios,
According to the policy-makers at the local level another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.
Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.
Especially when policy-makers are confronted with various sources of information that are contradictory in terms of the future developments they describe,
results and added value of the foresight method for strategic policy-making, and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.
Consequently, although external expertise was brought in, the perception at the local level was that, in addition to external assistance, policy-makers should also be able to implement
and communicate the foresight method and insights themselves. In all case studies, external organisations specialising in foresight assisted in developing
Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis. Generally speaking, civil servants at the national level find it easier to gain access to high quality information
because national policies are often the most important guideline for local policies, the national civil servants have an interest in making sure that they are well-informed about the relevant stakeholders and issues,
To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,
policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor
the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).
One of the policy-makers said that‘‘(f) uture studies should match the biological rhythm of strategic policy processes in local and regional policy contexts''.
foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process. Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected.
This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase, particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians).
Consequently, there was less time to learn from the foresight study in a strategic 1 Particular issues arise in the case of quantitative forecasting models,
which are perceived often as black boxes by policy-makers. In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.
Policy-makers were disappointed as a result of this, because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.
At the national level the duration of the process does not appear to be a major issue.
because as a result civil servants are prepared well to discuss the new policies with the new Ministers and Secretaries.
In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models
The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.
This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,
Policy-makers feel that future-oriented policy-making can thrive in a culture where openness and innovation are encouraged
by contrast, the policy-related processes in which they are involved on a daily basis are characterised as processes of a more intuitive nature.
local policy-makers mentioned that managerial commitment from the start of a future exploration trajectory is a crucial success factor
According to policy-makers, the challenge is to present and communicate a foresight study in such a way that it is recognisable for politicians
because not drawing conclusions means that there is no connection between the foresight study and the policy development process.
Policy-makers also indicate that leadership depends on the degree of confidence among colleagues with regard to the future analyses (for example because of the proven quality of their work;
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.
and discover how to use the insights of foresight studies in strategic policy processes. At the national level, there is more experience,
and have a greater impact on strategic policy processes. The lack of experience at the local level can be related to some of the barriers mentioned above.
The same is true for the different reasons for using foresight methods in strategic policy processes which may be explained by the fact that both organisational levels are related to each other from a governmental and political perspective.
Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers
if they are fully in step with the policy-making process, in terms of their timing, cultural compatibility and usability.
Exploring Futures for Policy making), Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, 2010.8 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying Public policy.
Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 2003.9 G. Ringland, Scenarios In public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, West sussex, 2002.10 P. van Notten
A Study of Stakeholder participation in an Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policy in The netherlands, LEMMA Publishers, Utrecht, 2004.15 P. A. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon
An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries, Futures 41 (2009) 607 618.24 P. A. van der Duin, J. Dirven, C
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij
the case of the RWS2020-project, Foresight 12 (5)( 2010) 41 57.32 T. Yoda, Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making:
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