malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation leading to unwanted consequences. The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum
and problem-driven approaches are taken 1. It is stressed also that it is important to see technology as part of a whole technological and societal system 11.
These fields are renowned for their complicated systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences. During the 1970s, a worldwide trend of increasing accidental losses in factories was recognised 14.
o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,
Instead, the whole process should be understood as a complex socio-technical system in order to make the process safe.
Resilience engineering tries to strengthen the intrinsic safety potential in complex systems in industrial safety. This approach has raised recently interest in the risk management field.
A sure system tolerates errors or failures and protects itself against the consequences of such events 39.
The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight
and scenario methods in a proactive risk assessment of telecommunication and electric power infrastructures was conducted in an EU funded project Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS,
The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.
It will focus on the potential production and the future safety of the production systems as well as on the related uncertainties.
and consequences of the climate change affecting the Nordic energy production system are developed in the project. The risk assessment procedure is developed at the first stage of a case study concerning Nordic hydropower production 37.
IRRIIS and CES especially reveal the gap between the future-oriented analysis and the technological system stressed risk assessment processes.
The risk is caused by a failure, deviation, malfunction or error in an industrial system or operation.
To identify possible future developments, driving forces, emerging technologies, barriers, threats and opportunities related to a broader socio-technoeconnomi system.
but a socio-technical complex system also interacting with its environment and the whole society. The focus has shifted from positivist
10 O.,Saritas, Systems thinking for Foresight, Ph d. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, 2006.11 E. Braun, Technology in context.
Risk analysis of Technological Systems, Geneva, Switzerland, 1995.21 Center for Chemical process Safety (CCPS), Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, 2nd Ed. AICHE, New york, USA, 1992
and improved computer translation will allow more international foresight activities to build collective intelligence through participatory feedback systems far more complex than the current futures research methods.
chaotic systems While most physical and social systems are nonlinear, mathematical models and simulations of those systems usually use linear assumptions 4. The linear approximations are made
because linear equations are simpler to handle mathematically and over vast regions of operation the linear models provide a good match with reality.
Linear systems can be stable (that is when perturbed, the system settles to some stable value),
can oscillate (that is, when perturbed, the system settles into a periodic cycle), or can be unstable (that is when perturbed,
the system movements become very large and continually increase or decrease). When the systems are nonlinear,
however, a fourth state of behavior can be triggered: chaos. In this state, the system appears to be operating in random fashion,
generating what appears to be noise. In this state, the system behavior is still deterministic but essentially unpredictable.
The central premise of planning is that forecasting is possible. The policy sciences teach us to identify optimum policies by testing a set of prospective policies on models that simulate the real world
and choosing the policy that brings the model outcome closest to the desired outcome. But if the model and the real system are in a chaotic state,
the results of a policy may be exquisitely dependent on a number of factors other than the policy itself.
If a system that we attempt to control is T. J. Gordon et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 1066 nonlinear (that is, input and output are related not in a one-to-one fashion) and, through excessive feedback or bgain,
its behavior resembles random motion or noise), then prediction of the future of the system (interest rates,
In addition, historical precedent fails for systems that are operating in the chaotic mode. Since chaotic systems are very sensitive to initial conditions
history is no guide since conditions in the past were almost certainly different than the present. Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modeling
but a whole new set of approaches to planning and systems management need to be invented.
What might be some of these new strategies for management of chaotic systems? Here are thoughts some:
Second, nonlinear models can be built to simulate real life systems that operate in a stable mode most of the time.
Such models can be used to find conditions that drive the systems they simulate into oscillatory or chaotic states.
policies can be found that move the system back toward stability. One of the authors (Gordon) found that slowing down the feedback tends to stabilize social systems exhibiting chaotic behavior.
if the system was in a chaotic state, it could be almost exactly correct in its match to reality
the analyst can identify the future limits of operation of a system and set plans to accommodate those limits, saying, in effect,
bi don't know precisely where the system is going, but I do know its limits.
Q Fifth, planners might use the attributes of a chaotic system (rapid response to very small impetus) to his or her benefit.
The problem of planning and management of systems operating in the chaotic regime is a frontier of great importance to our field.
Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2
In technology barometer this challenge is solved by dividing the exercise first into a comparison of the performance of the Finnish innovation system with selected nations on a basis of available international indicators
or any indicator system in that case, to have a sound theoretical and methodological basis 1,
and the entire economic systems or their sub-systems are in different development phases. Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.
The indicators of societies fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development are social values, environmental responsibility and environmental systems.
Attainment (WHO) National Health care Systems Performance (King's Fund) Relative Intensity of Regional Problems (EC)
His recent research work is related to the rationales of innovation policy, foresight of technologies (e g. transition towards sustainable energy systems), intellectual property rights,
Amina Beyer-Kutzner b, Walter Ganz c, Philine Warnke d a Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
b German Federal Ministry for Research and Education, BMBF, Germany c Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering, Germany d Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany
was conducted by a consortium comprising the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (Fraunhofer ISI) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (Fraunhofer IAO).
Other institutions like the Technical University of Berlin, the Institute for Nanotechnology (INT) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, the RWTH Aachen, the Austrian Research centres Gmbh (ARC), Systems Research Division Dept
Systems and complexity analysis (including research on technological and scientific convergence; security research) 14. Services Science In a first workshop with 110 participants in November 2007, these 14 thematic fields were discussed with respect to emerging topics
and use of new living beings with new properties by integrating artificial systems 29 Hydrogen technology systems 28 Research on illnesses caused by lifestyle 27 Affective Computing 26
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.
but is a living system. Therefore, every foresight exercise has an impact on the system the foresight is performed in, in this case the BMBF and the policy as well as the innovation system.
It can be doubted, however, whether the policy system can be directly reconfigured by such a foresight process.
Nevertheless, even if this is not directly intended the system will react and change. There will therefore be an effect on the policy system itself,
which makes it more apt to address long-term challenges. In the BMBF Foresight process, an impact is expected on the interdisciplinary
or interdepartmental collaboration concerning new and especially crosscutting topics (objectives 1 and 2). The question of adaptive foresight remains 19, p. 472.
new foresight on science and technology, Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI no. 13, Physica, Heidelberg, 2002.17 Bundesministerium für Forschung und
new foresight on science and technology, Technology, Innovation and Policy, Series of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI no. 13, Physica, Heidelberg, 2002.30 Science and Technology foresight Center, Ministry
Kerstin Cuhls is coordinator of the business area Foresight and Futures research in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.
Philine Warnke is scientific project manager in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.
however, rather slightly, confirming insights from the policy analysis literature that it is very difficult to change core belief systems in the short term.
which might challenge existing belief systems of participants more effectively, the process is also less systematic,
Action Res. 21 (6)( 2008) 459 477.14 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying public policy, Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford
A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology Denis Loveridge, Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK a r
The notions of‘situations'and Critical systems Heuristics (CSH) are combined into a metaphor to suggest how the deficit in Foresight might be reduced.
The notion of‘situations'and Critical systems Heuristics (CSH) represents an attempt to provide a metaphorical foundation for Inclusive foresight.
and evaluations of outcomes depend on prior judgements about the relevant system. The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions.
Foresight Inclusivity Critical systems Heuristics Nanotechnology 1. Institutional Foresight Institutional Foresight programmes(‘Foresight'hereafter) now occupy a prominent position in the minds of public policy makers.
Characterised by systems with interactions involving feedback, feed-forward and other aspects of systems behaviour Likely to exhibit complexity Likely to exhibit aspects of trans science Influenced by the dynamic balance between the forces of modernity
and post-modernity Independent to enable: freedom of thought; freedom of access to people and information sources; and freedom of reporting Participatory enabling whoever wishes to take part to do
and credible to Foresight sponsors and their audience Systemic in order to understand how systems work and behave.
but no more than that, that a combination of the notion of‘situations'and Critical systems Heuristics (CSH) may contain the seeds of grounding Inclusive foresight within the ambit of (i) and (ii) above.
In this way the complexities imposed in sociocultural systems where for example, conflicts and unequal power distribution occur,
it should be remembered that systems thinking grew out of von Bertalanffy's recognition of the paucity of the reductionist approach to problem solving related to living systems.
An element of systems thinking is the notion of appreciation 16 and its extension into situations 14 that can be ameliorated
Ulrich 17 19 and more recently Dempster in her description of sympoiesis 20 extended systems thinking to provide a better understanding of the issues associated with determining system boundaries and the roles of values associated with the implementation and measurement of practical results.
In many ways CSH is a restatement of the cognitive aspects that have long been a central part of systems thinking that recognises that all problem definitions, proposals for improvement,
and evaluations of outcomes depend on judgements about the whole system to be looked at and how that will be done.
Dempster describes sympoietic systems as‘complex, self-organizing but collectively producing, boundaryless systems'and that‘sympoietic systems are homeorhetic, evolutionary, distributively controlled, unpredictable and adaptive'20.
Dempster's proposition of a system with collectively produced, uncertain or fuzzy boundaries would be typical of any attempt to model a real-world unstructured and complex cascade of situations.
The cascade's fuzzy boundaries will be subject to intense philosophical debate that has much to learn from Dempster's sympoiesis. 4. 1. Evolution of a metaphor Inclusive foresight is
Identify boundaries for the heuristic as a judgmental process Assemble alternative systems contexts for appreciating dynamically a situation and its content,
1221 psychographic segmentation system based on psychological characteristics and several demographic factors that correlate with consumer behaviour, hence the word psychographics.
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, NY, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
of problem-solving systems, Management Science 23 (10)( 1977) 1099 1108.18 W. Ulrich, 1983 Critical Heuristics of Social Planning:
. Dempster, A self-organizing perspective on planning for sustainability, Thesis for Master of Environmental Studies in Planning, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1998.21 W. Ulrich, Critical systems heuristics, in:
The Informed Student Guide to Management Science, Thomson Learning, London, 2002, p. 72.22 W. Ulrich, Systems thinking as if People Mattered:
Critical systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers, Working Paper No. 23,1998. 1220 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 23
in the framing conditions (see coordinating mechanisms) or the whole system, the latter being typical for potentially radical and breakthrough innovations).
The concept of configuration that works applies to artefacts and systems, and includes (in principle) social linkages and alignments as well.
Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA) 6 10 as a reflexive strategy articulation support system taking as its starting point ongoing socio-technical dynamics is particularly suitable for such a purpose.
similar to health risk labelling with the privacy risk label This product is tracked system placed on food packaging (a response to bloggers'insistence on transparency).
Public funding agencies form a blanket ban on financing nanoparticulate delivery systems. Private sector continues, voluntary reporting prevails
and just contributes to the functioning of a large system. Key question: why focus on nano?.5. 2. 2011 2012 nanoproducts proliferate The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes
The Social Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1987.16 K. Green, R. Hull, A. Mcmeeking, V. Walsh, The construction of the techno-economic:
The objective of encouraging other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities has lead to many spinoof activities,
and Jacobsson to underpin the system by improving its ability to serve five primary functions:(
and prioritisable instrument in national science systems. Also, by representing a second strand of research funding, in addition to basic funding of universities and other government laboratories, research programmes contribute to competition within the research system. 3. 2. About the study
as are the other parts of the research advisory system. The Danish advisory and funding system for research was subjected to a large reform in January 2004.
and information functions) Energy Authority System operators (PSO actors) Consultants Other actors involved in the process Scientists Communication consultants Ministry of Science
underpinning priorities related to scientific strengths rather than future societal or industrial potentials The strategy of developing new production and consumption systems:
research councils and national research programmes are a dynamic part of national science systems. If a national science system is perceived as an important element of the overall national innovation system then priority-setting processes of research councils
and research programmes can be of legitimate strategic interest to governments. Our analysis shows that research councils and research programmes do carry out strategy processes
His areas of work are systems of innovation and governance of research and innovation in the fields of eco-innovation and energy innovation.
Notes 1. The two electricity grid operators were at that time Eltra and Elkraft System. The government then merged the two organisations into Energinet. dk,
National systems of innovation. Towards a theory of innovation and interactive learning. London: Pinter. March, J. G. 1988. Decisions and organizations.
The Review report (see OECD 2007) suggested a number of needed reforms in the system of public sector research governance
system networking and community-building, and so on. It is not unusual for these priority-setting exercises to set out to identify only thematic or structural priorities at the outset,
but is perhaps less important in small systems, such as Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 938 F. Glod et al.
National priorities National priorities (Research areas)( Research domains) Innovation in services Business service design and innovation Fostering the economic and legal environment for Innovation performance and development of the financial systems
uses and sources of energy Sustainable agro-systems management Spatial and urban development Identities, diversity and integration Identities, diversity and integration Labour market, educational requirements
The latter is associated with the system's novelty. Furthermore, the FNR and the other public research actors benefited from a strong presence in the national media,
though perhaps exaggerated in some respects by the system's small scale. In the context of the FNR Foresight, it is clear that more time should have been devoted to setting its objectives and agenda.
what is called nowadays the systems approach to research, technology and innovation, which not only deals with framework conditions,
ARC systems research, building on Cassingena Harper and Georghiou (2005), PREST (2006) and Forsociety (2007.
and strategy process was positioned. 3. 1.‘Systems Research in the Urban area':'groundwork for RTI policy The strategy process could draw on solid grounds.
In addition to a number of specific studies, it built specifically on the results of the large-scale research programme‘Systems Research in the Urban area'that provided the analytical groundwork
In fact, it was a lucky coincidence that the foresight process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'could draw on a comprehensive analytical basis provided by the research programme‘Systems Research in the Urban area
Systems of innovations: technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter. Eriksson, E. A, . and M. Weber. 2008.
ARC Systems Research. Smith, K. 2000. Innovation as a systemic phenomenon: rethinking the role of policy.
Mapping expectations for system transformations. Lessons for sustainability foresight in German utility sectors. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 9: 1360 72.
http://www. wiendenktzukunft. at/downloads/strategie english. pdf The results of the research programme‘Systems Research in the Urban area'can be found at:
Giddens (1991,29) argues that the‘popularity of futurology in the system of high modernity is not an eccentric preoccupation...
reflexive governance in the transformation of utility systems. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 162 88.
Ethnography in/of the world system: the emergence of multi-sited ethnography. Annual Review of Anthropology 24:95 117.
This is certainly not a foolproof system but it provides a more objective set of metrics than the bgood old boyq peer review mechanisms.
took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system. This decision spurred the two main funding agencies theacademy of Finland
Typically, these objectives include attempts (1) to prepare priorities in the research and innovation (R&i) system,
(2) to reorient the R&i system, (3) to demonstrate the vitality of this system, (4) to bring new actors to R&i debates,
or (5) to foster new networks (Georghiou and Keenan 2006). Ultimately, many of these objectives seek to strengthen the efficacy of innovation activities,
for instance by improving the stakeholders'understanding of the R&i system or by fostering collaboration processes within innovation networks (cf.
Section 3 describes the methodological design, execution and main results of Finnsight and reports subsequent policy developments in the R&i system.
characterised by numerous activities that have been initiated by several key actors of the R&i system (see, e g.
Edquist 1997) of the Finnish innovation system has remained largely unchanged for some time. As a result, there has been need less for establishing national thematic priorities that would transcend the boundaries of individual organisattion
when the Government took a decision in principle on the structural development of the public research system at large.
further to the recognittio that globalisation is a major determinant of the development of R&i systems.
so that it supported the other panels by collecting statistical data on R&i systems and economic forecasts.
Because Finnsight was a foresight process of two funding agencies with different but complemenntar roles in the R&i system,
(of key concern to Tekes) in the R&i system. This, together with the large differences in the fundiin processes of these funding agencies,
and focus areas of competences that it deemed central for the development of the R&i system.
Panel Examples of focal competence areas 1. Learning and learning society Neurological, cognitive, motivational and social basis of learning Practices of lifelong learning, the education system and informal
d) Subsequent policy developments Because foresight is a highly systemic instrument with close linkages to other policy processes that contribute to the development of the R&i system,
South korea and Canada and by the European commission. 8 One of the objectives of Finnsight was that it should encourage other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities.
and 88%thought that Finnsight will be important to the development of the Finnish R&i system.
while informative use refers to the development of an improved shared understanding of the R&i system
For instance, Finnsight synthesised consensual information about overarchiin developments that were relevant to many organisations in the R&i system (e g. universities, industrial federations, private enterprises.
Systems of innovation: technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter. Eriksson, E. A. and K. M. Weber. 2008.
Basic conceptions and visions of the regional foresight system in Finland. Foresight 4, no. 6: 34 45.
Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
Frauenhofer Institute, Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, 1999.7 L. Mermet, T. Fuller, R. van der Helm, Reexamining
for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain c Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation research ISI
The European system is sketched in terms of‘‘institutional arrangements''by depicting three (interrelated) arenas for the orientation, the programming and the performance of research.
Systems of policy functions have been proposed to enable Foresight design and evaluation to tailor approaches to policy objectives (8, Forsociety).
The sectoral systems of innovation approach which is focussing on the characteristics of knowledge production has been complemented by analysis of the properties of application domains
‘‘Central to the systems approach is the view that the key resource of a firm,
and innovation system This section presents a concept for analysing the institutional arrangements characterising the R&i system in a given research field.
R&i systems, principal-agent and agency theories, strategic and distributed intelligence for innovation policy. It proposes a functional description of National innovation systems along three interacting arenas of governance:
deals with the elaborating of the vision of the future of the system, in putting in place its instruments and regulations, its broad objectives and budget;
Whereas the Futuris work has been focussed on the national level for analysing The french R&i system we will mainly consider here the institutional arrangements which are governing/organising public R&i system at the European level assuming that relevant thematic research
But, undoubtedly, with the dynamics of the ERA building, a European R&i system is emerging,
firstly, exploration of multiple GM futures in the broader context of agricultural system and secondly, localisation and diversification of the GM research agenda.
navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.10 B.-A°.Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation:
. Geels, Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation
(6)( 2001) 953 976.23 R. Kaiser, H. Prange, Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance:
The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
This article describes the scanning process as SRIC-BI practices it, the importance of open intelligence systems,
when setting up scanning systems. D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Scanning process; Open intelligence systems;
SRIC-BI 1. The premise Predicting the future is impossible. The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments,
Such monitoring of the external environment is the foundation of an open intelligence system. The open intelligence concept contrasts sharply with the more common concept of targeted intelligence or the understanding of business intelligence as an analytical function dealing with internal corporate data.
For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities
interdependent, organic systems that demonstrate nonequilibrium dynamics typical of ecological systems. Such systems are susceptible to nonlinear perturbations that can have far-reaching
or even catastrophic effects in business systems but that are difficult if not impossible to predict.
The commercial environment is constantly evolving through the interactions of thousands of variables from market-driven pricing processes to government regulations, from consumer opinion to market competition,
As the complexity of the business environment increases, successful businesses will be those that turn themselves into adaptive systems that work in an organic manner to find,
we'll need to depend on humans for scanning, particularly in the case of open intelligence systems.
Open intelligence systems need to be able to identify new patterns as well as track existing (continuously evolving) ones.
and a system of checks and balances that harnesses professional expertise to evaluate those ideas.
Organizations that implement systematic and ongoing processes such as open intelligence systems to tap the external business environment continually for signals of change increase their odds of adapting successfully.
The scanning system captures and assembles the data points in the form of short abstracts, which the scanners enter in an online system using standard Web browsers.
An abstract includes source information, a short summary of the article or event in question, and a description of the implications that the scanner believes that the item presents.
The system assigns each item a reference number and stores each abstract as a separate Hypertext-markup-language (HTML) page.
SRIC-BI's system operates on a monthly schedule at the end of each Fig. 1. The complex market environment.
the same employee might submit an abstract on the development of a microchip that contains system-on-a-chip components to enable Wimax wireless broadband access to homes and offices a much more interesting development in terms of enabling dramatic
In SRIC-BI's scanning system, each month's set of 100-plus abstracts serves as the starting point for a monthly open-ended discussion
and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.
Although the Scan process serves most effectively as an early warning-system system, companies have applied it in various other ways.
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