An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&i system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies.
In the open innovation systems firms are concerned less with stand-alone type foresight and more about how corporate strategy interfaces with the emerging research and innovation policy scenario.
In the planning for the first UK Technology foresight Programme this system was articulated further to introduce the dimensions of cost and timescale 13.
Havas and Keenan have noted a tendency in such countries for science systems to be disconnected from innovation
and the series of exercises in the Czech republic 9. On the other hand Havas and Keenan stress the important role that foresight has had in contributing to the realignment of the science system through bringing it to the fore of discussion and highlighting the missing links
For example the Romanian Science and Technology foresight 2005 sought to reconstruct the RDI system around long-term perspectives.
but so far the system remains largely unreformed. One reason for this is that is many national environments there is insufficient autonomy
This argument is particularly strong for innovation in complex public/private systems such as vehicle route information technologies,
where coordinated action over a period of years is needed to put the system in place.''''30;
and Kuhlmann 31, serving the function of enhancing the capability of innovation systems for self-organisation and raising the level of analysis for innovation policy to the system level.
Within the scientific system an inability to configure work around interdisciplinary problems and to manage the interfaces with business
Furthermore, the focus on long-term developments and emphasis on the system level analysis, for instance, mean that it has not been easy to evaluate the impacts of the foresight project (for instance,
and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
Foresight Canadae Informative Identification of emerging and frontier technology domains addressing subjects such as future fuels, bio-health innovation, geo-strategic systems, animal
by the Nordic council. d The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems. e Commissioned by the Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.
Consensual and informative foresight processes in Asian countries such as Japan5, China6 and Korea, seem to have important role both in enhancing national systems as well as in the international communication.
It helped them position in the system, network with other stakeholders and in general enhanced their innovation capabilities.
http://www. h2foresight. info (2009-11-10). 19 The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems, available at:
and systems imply, when we bring various assumptions to bear about how these situations and systems may evolve into the future.
We can establish and know things about posits. Various tasks for knowledge management in respect of such‘‘knowledge surrogates''can be identified.
creation of a shared understanding and mutual appreciation of the topics in question, the factors influencing them, the wider systems in
or system dynamics simulation modelling (whether using codified statistical data or inputs may be more based on group or individual judgement),
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 269 programmes and projects (discussed, for example, in the literatures on complex product systems,
FTA is liable to involve large volumes of information that can be processed through such TKM systems.
Such formal systems are being used increasingly as computer tools and communication infrastructures are upgraded. One interesting phenomenon is the evolution of websites for National foresight programmes,
and efforts to plan relevant systems, may well focus on one or other of these polar types.
Discussions are captured on groupware systems or, more traditionally, on wall posters which provide a record of development and material for presentational purposes,
and the implicit model of the system under consideration; scenarios may be differentiated in terms of key uncertain drivers, broad archetypes about system performance,
‘‘what if''questions, etc. The scenario framework can be a valuable tool for encouraging people from very different backgrounds to apply their knowledge in new ways.
and studies focusing on the application of IT systems for KM, and those stressing more organisational and managerial issues and social learning.
and another differentiation between KM strategies emphasising codification (these are centred ON IT systems, with extensive organisation of data and information resources,
and those emphasising personalization (centred on direct person-to-person contacts IT systems are used here to help communication and location of key informants).
and careful management of IT system designers who may lean more toward TKM frameworks. Again, the design of FTA needs to take into account the needs of KM
Telepresence and virtual reality systems are enabling much more intensive person-to-person interaction through IT systems. Yet at present these remain quite limited.
Only the most sophisticated telepresence systems can capture or simulate the nuances of face-to-face communication,
Even less sophisticated IT systems are liable to be seen by users as costly and resource-consuming media.
We would hope that system designers and those responsible for establishing the steps and procedures to be used in FTA EXERCISES will find ways of building in
''some classification is inherent in the system. Admittedly, the key information may be created‘‘on the fly''in interaction between participants in the system.
A. Eerola, I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 275 One of the biggestkmchallenges that confront FTA,
Serious FTA recognises that we can apply formal modelling to some features of the complex systems we encounter,
where dimensions of the system that were marginalised in the main work were highlighted. In addition to the general point about the need to integrate FTA
The Ami work had focused on the benefits of the emerging ubiquitous IT systems, and seen problems as mainly barriers and roadblocks needing to be overcome.
It will be the task of the‘‘knowledge manager''to design systems that can facilitate this,
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
knowledge management and knowledge management systems: conceptual foundations and research issues, MIS Quarterly: Management Information systems 25 (1)( 2001) 107 136.39 T. Rogers-Hayden, N. Pidgeon, Moving engagement‘‘upstream''?
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
Yet, COM 10 claims that governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis in Europe and elsewhere.
Ulrich's 12 Critical systems Heuristics (CSH) recognises that various stakeholders in society may see situations 14 in radically different ways because different stakeholder values and behavioural characteristics lead to different boundary judgements.
In this way the complexities imposed in sociocultural systems where conflicts and unequal power distributions occur, may be taken into account.
and facilitate policy making taking into account the active involvement of society and the requirements of the new governance systems.
and intervene in these transformed systems. Current FTA does not go beyond the application of certain methods
''is the main question this paper raises by describing the new governance landscape which can be represented by a Venn diagram with a triangle at the centre of the three intersecting systems (Fig. 1). 4. Social-cultural evolution The growing need for a better
As a consequence, the social construction of sustainable development becomes a process ofmanaging multidimensional social conflicts embedded in the six dimensions for sustainability as articulated systems:
FTA in support of new forms of governance Governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis possibly
by an analogy relating industrial systems to natural systems, a model for a desirable transition to cleaner production:
which explicitly deals with complex socio-technical systems and science society relationships. FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
A White paper, Commission of the European communities, 2001.11 J. P. Olsen, Reforming European institutions of governance, Journal of Common market studies 40 (2002) 581 602.12 W. Ulrich, Critical systems
The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, New york, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
and integration and convergence of functions and systems; Proliferation of nation states and groupings of peoples seeking self determination status. 2. 2. Drivers of change The second key definition concerns those forces,
so for this survey it will not be possible to rigorously provide a single definition that fits all situations so the following examples are useful to guide those seeking to imagine what could shock the systems of incremental change.
which created significant shocks to the global security, airport screening and intelligence systems and practices;
and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system and to then consider what type of event might de-stabilise that system.
Challenging Petersen's hypothesis, his additional thoughts on‘Cascading Discontinuity Sets'broke away from the idea of wild cards to introduce other types of interrelated events.
unplanned events that eventually overwhelm the system's ability to cope. The idea is similar to the Black swan theory described by Taleb 10 in his book‘‘The Black swan''.
Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain business social trend or system.
and Web research guides we are finding less use of the Library of Congress classification system, a system
somewhat noisy and generally socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.
The general area of health system developments and changes is also prominent. Perhaps the most provocative ones are the trends describing broad new domains of human evolution (e g. genetic manipulation
The majority of the respondents around the globe considered that more than 75%the trends will have high impact on the STEEP systems.
Almost all respondents from different Foresight affiliations stated that over 70%of the trends identified will have high impact on the STEEP systems.
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
Almost all the survey respondents considered that the drivers will have medium to high impact on the STEEP systems with the large majority of the experienced respondents (73%)considered high impact.
and the remaining 35%will have medium impact on the STEEP systems. The figures were 75%high and 25%for medium for the Australasian respondents.
The majority of respondents (around 68%)consider that the drivers will have high impact on the STEEP systems,
Cyber crime and network vulnerabilities from failure of human systems Increased barriers to access to natural resources Growing organizational and governance incapacity Water recognised as a valuable resource
confidence levels in the ability of existing systems to adapt; Usual suspects (natural disaster, nuclear accidents, etc.
could fundamentally change the ways some familiar and long surviving societal systems. Again, to be able to embody there types of wild cards into some scenarios could be a provocative and rewarding exercise to test some of the leverage points that may impact change
creation of out-of-control species, viruses, robots Disruption of technological systems Artificial intelligence passes human capacity Shocking scientific discovery challenges all hitherto received ideas, e g.,
crime and pollution Total satellite failure interconnectivity black out More frequent natural catastrophies divert resources from development Millions of weather related refugees disrupt global system Religion
The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.
nature, safety, home Personalised genomic healthcare Rapid reversal of tolerance to multicultural populations Human systems adapt to new culture of physical and biological requirements Reduced need
but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems which interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
is responsible for European cooperation and for coordinating foresight activities as well as the research area on sustainable energy systems at the ZHAW Institute of Sustainable development.
sustainability and foresight research by applying monitoring and evaluation systems, Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years.
cahu@zhaw. ch Peter De Smedt has a background in ecological system analyses. His professional challenge is connecting science and policy.
none of these methods are able to systematically reproduce a complete system; they all have their specific limits.
At the same time, the transport system is confronted with many challenges that reduce economic vitality and quality of life such as climate change, the emission of pollutants and noises, accidents, congestion;
In part, at least, these unintended effects and theses controversies are rooted in the complex nature of the transport system.
Also, the technology-infrastructure systems are enabled dependent on, and by, technological developments in different areas; the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
So, transport is a socio-technical system that is influenced by, and interwoven with, many factors inside and beyond its boundaries.
Political interventions into this field have many effects within the system, but also various impacts outside the transportation sector.
whereas a general differentiation is made between uncertainty due to variability and uncertainty due to limited knowledge of the system.
It is the sheer complexity of the system that might lead to the ex ante assumption that something unintended could happen.
‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
From a policy analysis perspective, the transport system, with its components and their interrelations, could be understood as an abstract conceptual model
This web-model of the transport system illustrates well that, when tackling one of the nodes,
At the more or less blurred borderlines, other systems (energy system, land-use patterns and economic system) are attached and interact.
Therefore, they build up systems with clear and sharp borderlines. In general, they allow for the further specification of knowns rather than for the detection of any unknowns (see Figure 1). Typical examples are transport models.
and to separate facts from norms Focus on effects inside the predefined system Help getting a rough understanding on effects Effects outside the system cannot be detected Open in principle to detect effects beyond system boundaries Specifications
A positive example for a careful application and integration of results of different FTA METHODS is the development of the European commissions (Commission of the European communities, 2008)‘‘Action Plan for the deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems''(ITS.
defining the role ITS will play in the future road transport system in Europe. In preparation for the action plan, an ex ante impact assessment was conducted to examine the options for action regarding ITS
''The key argument is closed that methods are rather usable in situations where the system under consideration can reliably be described
or developments where knowledge about the system and its internal structures is rather weak. The latter is falling into the categories of known unknowns
Commission of the European communities (2008), Action Plan for the Deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems in Europe.
and how disruptive events happen in systems and how responses could be better, particularly in the policy-making arena.
Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system. Findings Complexity science demonstrates that disruptive events do need not an associated trigger
as they are a normal part of a complex system. This insight implies that if we are always looking for weak signals we will certainly be caught unawares.
and to provide capabilities such as reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives, including those considered impossible now.
There are five relevant elements of complex systems: 1. A system cannot be explained by breaking it down into its component parts
because the key element is the interaction between the parts. The system needs to be considered as a whole.
As a result of these interactions complex systems exhibit emergence (self-organised) behaviour that results from these interactions. For example, consider taxies in a city.
The location and availability of taxies in a city cannot be explained by breaking the system down into its individual parts drivers, cars, customers, fares, other taxies etc.
Rather it is an emergent property of the whole system resulting from the interaction between all the parts the taxies and customers
the road system, the traffic (itself an emergent property of a city's transport system), city taxi rules,
and even the weather (the system environment): The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to embrace emergence
and to focus on the idea of interactions rather than constituent parts. Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to develop a vision of a system's emergent properties the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts. 2. All systems have component agents (taxies,
customers) and each agent in a system acts on its own set of rules and can be thought of as trying to get the best''outcome for itself (best fare for the driver, lowest fare or fastest ride for the customer).
The rules, which can be very simple (for example for a taxi driver they may be simply‘‘1. Stop for any customer,
''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.
Foresight techniques need to enable a vision of changes in the essential profile of a system. 3. The interactions between the component parts of a complex system
Systems are therefore not just very difficult to predict they are fundamentally impossible to predict.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 295 Systems can also be unexpectedly very stable highly resistant to change by policy intervention-or very unstable such as where a policy intervention leads to stream of unexpected changes
''Not only does phase change happen very suddenly and over the whole system, but there are no early warning signals.
as organisational systems (people) adapt to the new environmental parameters (policies) the system can change radically, Ridgeway et al.
(called‘‘attractors''as they are states to which the system is attracted) ''which can which render policies utterly ineffective:
The starting slate is never clean extremely tiny errors in understanding where the system starts from can send any‘‘forecast''off in totally the wrong direction.
The implication is that foresight techniques need to recognise that a system has a critical history
a system cannot go back to where it was as the initial conditions have changed now. Failed policy cannot be repealed
Foresight techniques need to recognise that everything is part of a system, that there is no‘‘new''starting point,
Complex systems are not at equilibrium (if they are they are dead) and are always changing.
Systems evolve, as do the agents, their rules and interactions and the system plays out in a‘‘fitness landscape''.
''Imagine a landscape of mountains and valleys, where‘‘high''is good for an agent (a performance measure) an agent (taxi driver) aspires (has a strategy to) be on a high peak (making a big profit).
''Several authors have developed concise descriptions of complex systems incorporating most of the concepts considered above. It is worth
Glouberman and Zimmerman (2002) A complex system is made up of many individual, self-organizing elements capable of responding to others and to their environment.
The entire system can be seen as a network of relationships and interactions, in which the whole is very much more than the sum of the parts.
A change in any part of the system even in a single element, produces reactions and changes in associated elements and the environment.
Therefore, the effects of any one intervention in the system cannot be predicted with complete accuracy, because the system is always responding
and adapting to changes and the actions of individuals. Mikulecky (2001) Complexity is the property of a real world system that is manifest in the inability of any one formalism being adequate to capture all its properties.
It requires that we find distinctly different ways of interacting with systems. Distinctly different in the sense that when we make successful models
the formal systems needed to describe each distinct aspect are not derivable from each other. Axelrod and Cohen (2001) A complex system is a body of causal processes and agents
whose interactions lead to outcomes that are unpredictable. So the interactions among agents often have unpredictable consequences
and the agents themselves adapt their behaviour based on past experiences: they interact in intricate ways that continually reshape their collective future.
thus changing the frequencies of the types within the system. The taxi example can be explained easily in these terms, Table I;
B Enable a vision of a system's emergent properties. B Embrace emergence rather than planning and forecasting.
and essential profile of a system can change (where rules can be laws and policies,
B Recognise that everything is part of a system where tiny, trivial actions can have huge, irreversible impacts.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 297 B Enable practitioners to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
Table I Examples of components in a complex system Element Example Taxis in a city Example Flying flock of birds Agents...
changing the frequencies of the types within the system More successful drivers, fewer new drivers, more cleaner taxies More faster birds,
and control approaches do not work in complex systems. The resulting implication is that a system cannot be controlled from above
''and so policy operating in a complex system cannot achieve a specific outcome directly. Instead, policy making needs to embrace emergence to exploit the developing behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system;
specifically policy makers must focus on the idea of interactions rather than a system's constituent parts
and develop a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts.
What does‘‘embracing emergence''actually mean? There are different ways of understanding the idea and what it may mean for policy making.
Simplistically, it is about understanding the system, in terms of a system's interactions rather than its component parts,
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 299 describe the idea of harnessing complexity to deliberately change the structure of the system,
which a system is perceived use of different mental models, or reframing. Again, policy makers need to watch for the‘‘emergent''properties that arise as a system organises itself following a policy intervention,
and use that policy to preserve the conditions in which the best solutions arise. With these perspectives, the link with,
and importance of, the concepts of optimisation and exploration (resulting from the non-equilibrium state of a complex system see section 2. 5 above) also becomes clearer.
and harnessing the system, can all enable policy makers to see the system from a different perspective
and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options. In terms of policy making‘‘
rather than working with (in) interactions of the systems components itself. Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis,
and rhythms rather than events (a specific example of focusing on interactions rather than constituent parts of a system), promoting effective neighbourhoods, building networks of reciprocal interaction,
(and failures are a normal feature of complex systems) having several options increases the likelihood that at least one option will succeed.
and why future disruptive changes may happen in a system. It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
Table III Implementation of promoting variation in policy making Policy direction Policy design Policy delivery Discover new policy problems
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
and skills (such as reframing) to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones that are considered not possible now,
Policy making In a complex system (which all societies are need) policy makers to recognise that systems are all about relationships and interactions between the constituent parts rather than about the details of the constituent parts.
and therefore that prediction and forecasts do not work well in complex systems. They must recognise that everything is part of the system,
and that tiny, trivial actions can have huge, irreversible impacts. They must also recognise that even the most basic rules
and the essential profile of a system can change, where the‘‘rules''can be laws and policies,
Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.
Policy making must use techniques such as Reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones not possible now,
Glouberman, S. and Zimmerman, B. 2002), Complicated and Complex systems: What Would Successful Reform of Medicare Look like?
Miller, R. and Poli, R. 2010),‘Introduction to a Special issue on anticipatory systems and the philosophical foundations of future studies'',Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 3. Mitchell, M. 2009), Complexity:
Everyday personal traffic increasingly by foot, by bike or by improved public transport systems. With goods transport rapid development of intelligent logistic chains has lowered the demand Passenger transport with electrical vehicles Transport needs grown
Dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and elastic price system the main reasons behind decreased consumption Decreased by 14 from 2008 level.
References A°kerman, J. 2011),‘Transport systems meeting climate targets. A backcasting approach including international aviation'',doctoral thesis, Royal Institute of technology, Stockholm.
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