and systems that relate directly to the nanoscale. The ability to control matter at such small length scales got a big push by the development and improvement of a variety of microscopes (e g.
Here again, we see topics that relate to the very far and speculative future such as nano-systems that control
systems development, site development and building construction. Each of the five steps has its own geographical scope, objectives, operational methods, norms and administrative procedures.
the functional implications for the territorial system are determined, which may display territorial elements, socioeconomic flows and local stakeholders.
After determining all kinds of implications across the territorial system, the analyst should be able to perceive the gap between the proposed future vision and the present situation of the territory
This context clearly benefits the Spanish productive system because it incorporates a sustainable integrated economy into the global markets.
This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:
The existence of strong social capital permits a decentralised democratic system. This model requires a strong set of management skills in all public organisations to guide participation and coordination actions.
Major outputs of the planning process are the creation of new natural sites, the provision of a high quality public transport system and the rehabilitation of integral parts of a city.
The medium-low density communities and their traditional lifestyle and production systems have not posed any threat to its sustainability in the past.
Regarding the transport system, new road development will kept to a minimum, while the railway network will be augmented substantially and improved.
The implementation of the public transport system will not be feasible due to the excessive dispersal of land uses and the low density population.
B Promote an educational system that transmits the values of sustainability, innovation, social commitment and solidarity.
B Set up an educational system aligned with new social and environmental values. B Establish mandatory measures to diminish energy consumption
A dynamic and sometimes turbulent environment puts enormous pressure on rational planning systems, which in many cases have been designed to simulate highly stable and predictable functional systems.
Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
complementing the scenarios with a system of monitoring mechanisms, legal contingency planning, and preparatory measures.
The Futurict project (www. futurict. eu) is a multidisciplinary international scientific endeavour with a special focus on techno-socioeconomic-environmental systems.
'(or‘policy wind tunnel')to explore techno-socioeconomic-environmental systems, in order to give decision-makers a better, integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011).
and manage complex, global, socially interactive systems,..r evealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies''(www. futurict. eu). The objective is
and manage techno-socioeconomic-environmental systems in a resilient and sustainable way, to minimize serious instabilities, uncontrollable systemic shifts, conflict, crime and war.''
''As a project which aims to advance our understanding of human and environmental systems, Futurict will basically act as a Knowledge Accelerator,
a modelling system with the ambitious plan of turning massive amounts of data into knowledge and technological progress.
''PAGE 340 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 While the‘‘Living Earth Simulator''will‘‘require the development of interactive decentralized supercomputing that scales up to global level systems
reflected in its proposal to use modelling systems (along with its data mining procedures) to better enable
In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
a computerized crime mapping system developed by NYPD in 1993 and now used by police departments nationwide.
scenario planning, backcasting, modelling systems and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.
This is the case of modelling systems, such as Futurict. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
for instance, knowledge based systems and intelligent information retrieval. With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above,
I believe that the employment of modelling systems in political discussion and deliberation exercises should also be used in the preparatory phases of legislative procedures.
I propose the idea of attaching modelling systems and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.
global modeling system which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production. According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society,
Nanotechnology is dealing with functional systems based on the use of sub-units with specific size-dependent properties of the individual sub-units or of a system of those...
Functional systems are systems where the (technological or natural) functionality to be considered provides the criteria for defining system boundaries...
The specific-size dependence of these properties becomes evident when they a) no longer follow classical physical laws
because this would imply exclusion rules independent from a scientific evaluation of the fundamental working principles of a functional system described by the three criteria.
or systems and integrated into reliable and marketable products. The segment of dnanotechnologyt that is closest to a widespread application is the field of dnanomaterialst.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
and institutes (representing basic research on nanotechnology related phenomena, material researchers and developers, systems engineering, toxicology of nanoscopic structures,
Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
the FTA Conference Scientific Committee took the stance that FTAHAS a potentially useful role to play in exploring future developments of complex societal systems and in defining effective policy actions, by way of:
complex and adaptive nature of the systems we are dealing with today, as well as to the chaotic phases through which these systems may pass,
when moving to the molecular era, thus limiting the possibilities of forecasting. He continued that
if we want to bring the systems approach closer to the real world, the organisational and the individual perspectives would become essential,
a crisis of consciousness, of behaviours, of cultures and of systems (Hames 2011a. In response to these crises, he saw a need for new forms of dialogue at different levels,
and the difficulties they face in the complexity of interconnected innovatiio systems. They argue that RTOS face a systemic-temporal paradox:
anticipatory systems; innovation; creattiv evolution Introduction Predictions about future almost always fail. In this paper, the epistemic and ontological causes for this failure are described and their implications for foresight, innovation policy,
theory of autopoietti and anticipatory systems, and cultural historical theories of cognitive development and social learning.
we describe and expand Robert Rosen's analysis of the nature of modelling and the relationships between natural and formal systems.
Already relatively simple systems have interactions, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity that lead to chaos, strange attractors,
Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
and systems of categorisation (Schon 1963; Fleck 1979; Dosi 1982; Perez 1985; Garud and Rappa 1994;
and systems of meaning that are located in communities of users and social practice. The true nature of the beast is revealed only when someone domesticates it.
How can the nature invent a complex system such as the human eye? The emergence of an eye cannot result from following some mechanistic principles that add up to a functioning eye.
In mobile technology, global system for mobile communication (GSM) short messaging is created in a similar fashion.
Constant 1987) and with specialised systems of knowledge and meaning (Polanyi 1998; Knorr Cetina 1999.
it is useful to recall Robert Rosen's work on anticipatory systems. According to Rosen (1985), anticipatory systems are systems that contain predictive models,
allowing future to have an impact on the present: To take a transparent example: if I am walking in the woods,
7) An anticipatory system, therefore, needs to include a model that generates predictions. In some cases, the model can be hardwired'in the biological system.
For humans, anticipation is hardwired less, and we can continuously adjust our expectations and predictive models.
Scientific models create linkages between natural and formal systems. In Rosen's terminology, natural systems include stones, stars, solar systems, organisms, automobiles, factories, cities,
and any other entities in theworld where a set of observable qualities can be related. Natural systems are the substance matter of sciences and
what technologies seek to fabricate and control. Natural systems are at least partially constructions of the human mind
but natural selection and the linkage between action and cognition weed out models that are incompatible with the world.
Natural systems change their states based on interactions between the system elements. These interactions in natural systems are
what we usually call causality. Simple observation of a natural system, however, can never tell us anything about the relationships between the observables.
Relationships between qualities are never observable as such. We can observe correlations, but there is no natural way to extrapolate from correlations to causal relations.
we need to relate the natural system with another, formal, system, where predictions become possible.
The crucial point for Rosen is that time works differently in natural and formal systems.
In natural systems, time separates events into two classes: those that are simultaneous with each other
and those that are ordered as predecessor and successors. The predecessor success relation generates causality. In a formal system, in contrast, causality is expressed in structural
or logical relations that remain true independent of time, and time becomes a parameter that can be used to label system states.
In practice, this means that if the formal model is good enough a representation of the natural system,
we can use the formal system to find out the state of the natural system in some future point of time.
This will allow us to test the implications of alternative imputed relationships between the observables.
We can observe a natural system create hypotheses about the unobservable causal relationships, fast forward the formal model to a future point of time,
and check whether our natural system actually ends up in that state or not. This, indeed, is the only way we move from simple correlations to theoretical models.
we have to encode the states of the natural system into corresponding states of the formal system.
or predict the impact of causality in the natural system by using the rules of inference in the formal system.
the way we construct a natural system depends partly on our capacity to successfully model it.
In practice, we have to experiment with alternative systems of encoding to find one that pragmatically fits the task at hand.
Indeed, speaking informally,‘a state embodies that information about a natural system which must be encoded in order for some kind of prediction about the system to be made'(Rosen 1985,75).
If the nature is a lock, we try different keys until one opens the Lock in general,
for example, the construction of those artificial natural systems that we usually call technology. Rosen clarified the modelling relation in considerable theoretical and conceptual RIGOUR.
however, leaves somewhat open the question howwe come up with the natural systems in the first place. Rosen combines here a partly Bergsonian explanation,
we purposefully locate natural systems and formal systems together. This is because natural systems are also cognitive constructions, partially based on existing anticipatory models and partially on the available repertoire of cognitive categories.
The actual interactions of the world transpire on the left-hand side of the figure, behind a‘phenomenological veil'.
'On the right-hand side, time is a parameter that can be used to label system states
We construct natural systems and their associated predictive models by abstracting the lived reality. As Bergson (1988) pointed out
This means that both natural systems and their predictive models are necessarily to a large extent retrospective.
It arises because a natural system can be constructed using inappropriate categorisation systems because the natural system may be mapped into inaccurate predictive models using codings that leak information,
and because the observables can be measured with error. Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,
introducing novelty that irreversibly changes natural systems and makes their predictive models obsolete. Implications for foresight and future-oriented analysis What are the practical implications of the above conceptual analysis for foresight and futureorieente analysis?
Innovation changes the way the natural system itself needs to be constructed. Ontological expansion means that we do need not a better model;
facts exist only for natural systems that have associated measurement instruments and established encodings and decodings between the natural system and its formal model.
It is therefore very difficult to formally model systems when innovation matters. Policies that are legitimised by facts,
foresight efforts therefore could more appropriately be located around the problem of articulating natural systems, instead of formulating predictive models.
an educational system geared towards producing skilled labour, and public financing systems that are based on all the above assumptions.
In other words, assuming that the industrial society remains as it used to be, extrapolations from demographic data lead to an unsustainable state.
and other articles in the same special issue of foresight on anticipatory systems. Notes on contributor Ilkka Tuomi is Chief Scientist at Meaning Processing Ltd.
The social construction of technological systems: New directions in the sociology and history of technology.
Services and facilities to be provided in the GSM system. GSM Doc 28/85 rev. 2. Constant, E w. 1987.
Community, system, or organization? In The social construction of technological systems: New directions in the sociology and history of technology, ed. W. E. Bijker, T. P. Hughes,
and T. J. Pinch, 223 42. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Dosi, G. 1982. Technical paradigms and technological trajectories a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change.
The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.
Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems. Foresight 12, no. 3: 18 29. Luhmann, N. 1990. Essays on self-reference.
Self-organization in nonequilibrium systems: From dissipative structures to order through fluctuations. Newyork: Johnwiley & Sons. Nishida, K. 1987.
Anticipatory systems: Philosophical, mathematical and methodological foundations. Oxford: Pergamon Press. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.
How often the nature of measurements is dissected according to the NUSAP2 system (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990),
Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1
and systems analyyti approaches recasting the object reality, as determined from one of the above two categories,
Multi-disciplinary by definition FTA develops understanding of systems and situations in time and space through people's perceptions (a basis for opinions);
suggests methodological approaches that assist in capturing the essence of systems and their contexts; improves practices with conceptual modelling;
As the complexity of systems involving synthetic biology, genetics and artificial life, nanoarteefact and other developing themes merge,
interactive global systems remains to be seen. The interdependence of the silos of‘grand challenges'adds dimensions that were appreciated in the 1970's
whereas the more common‘fail-safe'principle is akin to the other two forms of ignorance 2. The NUSAP system examines quantitative data as follows:
A perspective on systems science and systems philosophy. Futures 6, no. 3: 219 39. Meredith, J. R.,A. Raturi, K. Amoako-Gyampah,
and implementation Reconfiguring the policy system Making the policy system more apt to address long-term challenges Symbolic function Indicating to the public that policy is based on rational Information source:
According to this belief in progress, a next version of products, systems or knowledge will be available (Braun 1995.
Normative expectations in systems innovation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 299 311. Berube, D. M. 2006.
for example, Delphi, relevance trees, trend-impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems dynamics, and game theory (Glenn 1999; Porter et al. 2004;
Daimler has developed also a scenario-based system which focuses on the evolution, impact, and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006).
Such system aims at encompassing and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues.
The behaviour of these networks is analysed from the perspective of sympoietic complex systems. Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
thus contributing to a business's successful continuity. The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
Section 3 describes that networked sustainability goes one step beyond the value net by consideriin the global system within
including nature and different stakeholders within society in one interconnected system. Such a network has to operate as a cyclical system where value is redefined from Porter's strategies, on cost leadership and differentiation,
to Be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
The proposed management framework and the roles that FTA can play are introduced then comparing networks to complex sympoietic systems.
which describes the layer behind business management systems. The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
since it is based on a vision that characterises the universe as a nonlinear dynamic system, unpredictable,
to be pursued by all actors involved in the system. Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are what enable the system to adapt to disruptive changes.
Rather than looking for one generic business model for sustainability firms should work out their own model that brings new opportunities through dialogue
Nevertheless, the learning process (a feature of foresight) embedded in the proposed framework differs from the one entrenched in other management tools (Appendix 2) as learning also occurs according to the capabilities accumulated within the systems'operation.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
but this applies strictly to an organisationally closed self-regenerating system. Dynamic and complex business networks are not of this kind,
Sympoiesis (Dempster 1998) attempts to describe the boundaryless nature of system behaviour (more will be said about sympoiiesi later)
opportunities and system capabilities, together with returns to stakeholders. In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.
and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system, inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
reward/punishment systems-Cooperation starts to be felt-Cooperation between interdependent teams-Informal training of sustain ability and necessary skills and practice-Teamwork,
reward systems-Dialogue and conversations lead to individual discovery/learning-Teams Share experiences-Self-managing teamwork, high-performance teams in the net-Inclusive dialogue and active participation
IT used to build systems that cross functions and allow data-sharing stimulus to support decisions-Information based;
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
environmental and social performance along the network. 4. Management framework The proposed management framework emphasises the creative aspect of living systems where FTA is key to enable the kind of dialogue
and interactions required to allow business networks to behave as sympoietic complex systems. In this context and according to Hock (1999), enterprises must be able to combine, with harmony, order and chaos, competition and cooperation,
which characterise the fundamental principles of any organism, organisation or complex system, as well as of evolution and nature.
autopoietic systems produce and are a product of themselves (Rocha 2003). Interpreting complex systems from the perspective of ecosystems,
Dempster (1998) coined the expression sympoietic systems, indicating three main differences, related to key system characteristics between autopoiesis and sympoiesis:
1. autopoietic systems have defined self boundaries, while sympoietic systems do not; 2. autopoietic systems are self-produced,
whereas sympoietic systems are produced collectively; and 3. autopoietic systems are closed organisationally, while sympoietic systems are organisationally ajar.
Dempster (2000) concludes that these differences mean that autopoietic systems are oriented homeostatic, development, centrally controlled, predictable and efficient,
whereas sympoietic systems are homeorhetic, evolutionary, distributively controlled, unpredictable and adaptive. According to Dempster, one of the most important differences between autopoietic and sympoietic systeem relates to the balance between their ability to maintain their identity
despite changes in the environment or to adapt their identity to fit changes. The above descriptions present a useful heuristic to complex systems and the interactions between the dimensions of sustainable development
spatial-technological, social, economic, environmmenta or ecological, political-institutional and cultural-values. Living systems share matter, information and energy with their external environments:
there is simultaneous autonomy and interdependence. According to Rocha (2003), complex systems require interactivity: in the same way, it is not possible to understand living systems without perceiving the systemic relationshhip of cells
and there is no possibility of comprehending social systems without taking into consideration the connections that individuals establish with their worlds.
Interactive relationships create emergent possibilities, such as those that are believed to be ingrained in the management framework proposed.
The information and knowledge which are shared throughout the business networks can lead to the networks'adaptation and evolution,
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
and informed to form more complex chains. Also the interactions among all the actors within networks characterise the existence of such a system or the network itself.
The stronger the interactions between the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 810 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge components of the network,
the greater will be its flexibility. The system will then be able to make evolutionary leaps characterised by the appearance of emerging properties.
In this context, trust in each other and in one's own emotions (Fell and Russell 1994;
Damasio 1996; Maturana 1998; Losada 1999,2001; Fredrickson and Losada 2005) is crucial for choosing a sustainable path to life
or for moving the whole system towards higher levels of sustainable development. Dialogue and information-sharing, founded on trust,
Larsen 2003) and ability to live with the paradox of chaos and order, competition and cooperation, through sympoietic system capability.
Table 4 highlights the main processes involved at each stage of the broad business management system (Appendix 4
that emphasise the creative aspect of living systems which, according to Tuomi (2011), is critical to address some of the epistemic and ontological assumptions that underlie much of the current FTA practice.
Hence, embedding FTA within the proposed management framework enables a network to develop its sympoietic system capability:
systems (IS), strategic, managerial and operational technologies analysis and selection Operations Marketing and/or commercial;
Lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems. Futures. Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
A new scientific understanding of living systems. Newyork: Knopf Publishing Group. Chehebe, J. R. 1998. Análise do Ciclo de Vida de Produtos:
A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Sympoietic and autopoietic systems: A new distinction for self-organizing systems. Proceedings of theworld Congress of the Systems sciences and ISSS 2000, Toronto, Canada.
Donaire, D. 1999. Gestão Ambeinatl na Empresa. São paulo: Atlas, 2 Ed. Eckenfelder, D. J. 1997.
Systems thinking for foresight. Phd thesis, Manchester Institute of Innovation research. Shelton, C. 1997. Quantum leaps. Butterworth-Heinemann.
(mgmt) framework Operations Management tools/Systems/Frameworks Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Management Management Management Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Behaviours/Actions Operations
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