Synopsis: Process:

The term stakeholder image construction describes here a predefined process in which a social group is associated with seemingly inherent characteristics,

They suggest that specific process management and principles will enable such an extension into the social sphere,

without causing the process to become chaotic. A still understudied aspect of inclusive foresight however is the question:‘

describes visioning as‘the process of creating a series of images or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate

such as scenario planning. 4 In foresight literature visioning is part of a more complex process, involving not only the creation of a desired future picture,

as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.

Visioning here has the clear advantage of concentrating on creating a shared and desired picture of the future from the very beginning of the process.

This, however, emphasises questions such as to what extent stakeholders should be involved in the process, which ideas of the future should be labelled as‘desired

The goal of the fieldwork research was to observe the process of this project in all of these settings,

The process of the visioning project was defined also as being guided by Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

This paper argues that constructing a specific image of young people as stakeholders points towards a dilemma of inclusive foresight that cannot be rectified by specific management and process principles.

forthcoming) 9. Community engagement refers to the process by which community benefit organisations and individuals build ongoinng permanent relationships for the purpose of applying a collective vision for the benefit of a community (definition from wikipedia. org).

Foresight refining the process. International Journal of Technology management 21, no. 7/8: 711 25. Johnston, R. 2002.

and oxygen into water, producing electricity and heat in the process. They function as an electrochemical device,

In practice, this often entails a process like the following:!perform a simple search using basic terminology e g.,

Nonetheless, the entire process can usually be completed in minutes. The complete search and retrieval process can often be completed in under an hour,

contingent on how delicate the search specification and refining processes are. Those depend on the sensitivity of the MOTISSUES being addressed.

Process management calls for explicit attention to how the analyses and their outputs can best be organized to enhance utility.

For example, manufacturing process management used to depend completely on tacit knowledge. A supervisor spent decades gaining familiarity with his (or occasionally her) machines, people, and processes.

process managers realized that dramatic improvements in quality were possible. There would be no bsix Sigmaq quality standards without empirical manufacturing process data and analyses thereof.

Technology management, somewhat surprisingly, is among the least data-intensive managerial domains. One would think that scientists, engineers,

To fully realize QTIP potential requires significant process management change:!Systematize strategic business decision processes.!Mandate explicit technology information products be provided for decision stages in such processes.!

What You Need from Technology information Products, Research-Technology management, 2004 (Nov 8 H. de Bruijn, A l. Porter, The education of a technology policy analyst-to process management, Technology analysis and Strategic management 16 (2)( 2004

specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and

which the apt title Finnsight 2015 was coined implied that a large-scale consultative process was called for, to ensure that the exercise would tap the expertise of leading researchers and industrialists,

and legitimacy. 3. Process design and implementation 3. 1. Early preparations and management structures The initial preparations of Finnsight were started in early 2005 at a time

and phases of the foresight process The delineation of foresight panels was an iterative process where the Core group explored some alternative rationales for choosing panel titles, even in view of international experiences,

Thanks to this latter requirement, the process could be started quickly so that the first Figure 1. Schematic outline of the schedule of Finnsight 2015.

support To support for the future-oriented deliberative process units of analysis characterised by key concepts were defined to provide structure to the panel discussions

First, the panellists could contribute equally to the process and they could arrive at a shared understanndin of

First, the modular process design ensured that the panels produced their analyses using the same concepts (cf.

Indeed, although the tight schedule of Finnsight was a challenge for the process design, this schedule was justified

This forum was organised as a panel-centric process which in contrast to Finnsight, focused on somewhat more general questions of societal well-being and economic policy.

Furthermore, in 2007 the Ministry of Trade and Industry started a process towards the establisshin a National Innovation strategy,

This workshop-based process focused on 11 themes of which addressed structural issues (e g. regional innovation policy;

The objectives of this process whose Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 Axes of balance in foresight 997 results were published in June 2008

and (4) fixed vs autonomous management of the process. 4. 1. Instrumental vs informative use of foresight results In terms of alternative modes of harnessing foresight conclusions,

(thus mitigating the possibility that some fields would be under-or over-represented due to a less controlled process of inviting participants).

a balance along this dimension had to be achieved to ensure that the process would contribute to the attainment of foresight objectives

This combination helped ensure that all panellists could contribute to the process and that the contributions of all panellists would be reflected duly in the panel reports.

assessing rational, process and impact. Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77. Havas, A. 2003.

In addition the conference aims to debate the use of horizon scanning as a process that enables policy to explore actively emerging challenges

At European level, strategic policy orientation takes place, firstly in the context of the process of elaboration of the EU research budget, mainly the framework programme,

FP programmes priorities elaboration process, FP management ERA NETS, JITIS, ETP, ERC...Sectoral‘alliances'(for example SET-Plan members) Performing:

partners and stakeholders networks Research institutions first step in strategic process A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging

insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.9 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:

No foresight function can operate with confidence without a disciplined process for spotting new patterns of change

The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,

Dorothy Leonard-Barton, in K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1084 her Wellsprings of Knowledge 5, maintains that the process of introducing external streams

and for nurturing a futures orientation more broadly in an organization. 3. The process The scanning process is necessarily a continuous one.

Although our description must begin with a certain point in the process, the process operates continuously as it has at SRI International and SRIC-BI for the past 25 years.

Various parts of the process can occur simultaneously and in concert with each other. The constant surveillance of the external environment on the part of scanners

the rhythm of monthly meetings to discuss new data points, and the documentation of findings for management are all part of the normal, ongoing cycles of the scanning process.

because participants know that the process works best if participants value each other's contributions regardless of rank in the organization.

the filtering process that identifies valuable ideas and knowledge for an organization can begin in earnest.

The SRIC-BI process taps:!Researchers and analysts! Technology monitors! Strategy consultants! Principal consultants! Marketing and sales staff.

The process also provides a tonic against the entrainment of thinking that discourages innovation and adaptation.

and longer-term benefits accurately is important to a fair trial of the process within a company.!

Selection of appropriate personality types for participation in the process is the most important success factor in implementing a Scan process.!

To sustain the process beyond 6 months requires a strong commitment from the organization to make the process work

No foresight function can operate with confidence without a disciplined process for spotting new patterns of change

since 1978 and has managed the Scan process since 1991. Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005

where the openness extends through wider stakeholder involvement, a broad thematic perspective, an ongoing process, and a sensitivity to disruptive trends.

In dealing with priorities it is difficult to separate the output from either the process that generates it or from the process by

or may itself be the result of a process. The process is typically a broader sociopolitical interaction of supply side technology

or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case

and by whatever decision process is agreed a list is arrived at. Often the process of list generation is interactive with the later stage of resource allocation.

In the realm of foresight, the process of list generation is taken over by the foresight process itself.

Using some combination of foresight methods ideas are generated and filtered until a list exists that may be subject to prioritisation.

Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers

and a process of participation or consultation with either external experts or extending to broader stakeholders.

or scoring process (raising of course the issue of who is empowered to vote or assign scores or weightings).

This paper also recommended that that the output from the prioritisation process should provide strategic advice about how to change the future rather than just a simple list of priorities for expenditure,

This process could be seen as analogous to the emergence of technology platforms in industry-led public programmes.

Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as being‘‘to examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,

and the participants and operators of foresight exercises who confront the realities of the need for structural change and a process-oriented approach.

Rollwagen et al. describe this process in Deutsche bank which they summarise as‘‘Foresight explores and assesses business opportunities as well as upcoming strategic,

This thinking was also the basis of the‘‘open innovation''concept in that it recognises centrally that innovation is a process of interaction between firms

i) Procurers at the start of the process are advised to prepare the tender procedure properly and to focus on the various possibilities

Known as the market survey or technical dialogue, this stage takes place priori to the procurement process.

Paper Presented at the UNIDO Technology foresight Summit, September, Budapest, 2007.11 T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, Mcgraw hill, New york, 1980.12 Office of Science and Technology and PREST

instead, to the process-related aspects of the project, for instance responding to a question on how the outcomes were achieved and by

This means that special attention must be paid to the organisation of the process and to the appropriate use of formal tools and procedures.

Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.

This makes it easier to design the process in a coherent way and to communicate the responsibilities of different stakeholders.

Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the project at the outset and control the process,

Autonomous management, in turn, refers to the process intermediated by the co-ordinators, who facilitate autonomous

and many kinds of stakeholders are invited to participate in the process. Exclusive stakeholder engagement means that stakeholder participation is not extensive

and debated during the process. Fixed The overall design of the process was determined already when planning the project.

The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.

Extensive The participation was open for research institutes industry, associations and public organisations of the five Nordic countries.

Consensual This process aims to provide new evidence and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications.

Fixed The procedure was fixed at the beginning of the process. It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years.

Exclusive Process was mainly small expert group work. Extensive Ideas were exposed in conferences and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.

Autonomous The overall process was based on workshops. Creative workshop discussions. Extensive The process involved a network of security stakeholders.

These were coming from different government departments, private companies, and research organisations. Exclusive Only invited participants. Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.

and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.

and altogether they form the combination of a case specific process design. The positioning of individual projects in the framework clarifies the methodological decisions and the rationales of stakeholder engagement.

diverse and informative and diverse and instrumental)( Fig. 1). In parallel, the projects can also be positioned in view of process oriented dimensions.

When the process management (autonomous and fixed) and stakeholder engagement (extensive and exclusive) dimensions are considered to correspond to the horizontal and vertical axes,

Furtheron, if the coordinate systemof Fig. 2 ispositionedtoeachquadrant of Fig. 1, the foresightprojects canbepositionedin the coordinates to provide detailed information on the nature of the outcomes and process of each project (Fig. 3). Hence

TD$FIG Fig. 2. Process management (from fixed to autonomous) and stakeholder engagement (from exclusive to extensive) dimensions in a coordinate system.

For foresight activities on emerging issues that are not yet proven to be of high policy importance it may be difficult to engage policy-makers in the process.

but they were meant not as such to engage policy-makers in the process. In practice, the technology foresight in Korea and China has borrowed lots of experiences from technology foresight projects in Japan. 3. 3. Priorities foresight (consensual perspectives

The process assisted the new Public security Technical Programme (PSTP) of the Canadian office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.

which meant that also competitive and delicate issue could be addressed alreadyduring the process. The second project identifiedwas a foresightprocess attachedtofinnish Foresight Forum, whichengageddifferent stakeholder groups, encouragedthemtosubmit ideas on prospective innovations,

This is almost a natural function or characteristic of any foresight project that stems from the process itself,

Foresight influences all participants in the process as well as their networks. Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase.

insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari

and quite often non-governmental organisation and civil society stakeholders 1. FTA, especially in the form of Foresight programmes, has come to be applied in the form of a mutual learning process,

nevertheless very much a process that involves finding, deploying, using and fusing and, yes, even creating knowledge.

AHP=analytic hierarchy process; ANP=analytic network process; MCA=multiple criteria analysis. 5 Thus the likely incidence of disease following a radioactive leak of a specific amount can be estimated on the basis of laboratory research and epidemiology;

the likelihood of nuclear accidents is another matter altogether, even if we can identify many factors that make this more or less probable in given circumstances.

Weick's influential sensemaking in organisations 32 also outlines a three-step process. In the original formulation this is not specific to FTA,

in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.

Enlisting those involved in the process in action: the aim is embed to the knowledge that has been generated in the programme into theirownorganisations and practices.

or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,

these agents engage in a process of comparison and modelling they can determine to what extent each is interpreting given material in the same way,

which thus called for careful design of the process and the tools and techniques it involved.

The SECI framework portrays the knowledge cycle of organisational learning as a dynamic interaction process.

we might need to think of any large-scale FTA ACTIVITY as likely to involve several intertwined SECI processes that go iteratively through the various transformation phases in a spiral-like process.

The process usually involves much dialogue, assisted by facilitators with‘‘scripts''(instructions and tasks) and with use of such instruments as whiteboards, flip charts, presentation graphics,

there will typically be a design process, to: identify participants for the scenario workshop it is vital to include the right range of interests, knowledge and expertise,

on foresight process and results Conference papers Project website Fig. 2. Different foresight elements in a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation, a SECI perspective.

or been in some way close to the workshop process. As discussed earlier, they will have much deeper knowledge of the underlying knowledge base,

10 When it comes to drivers and shapers of any KM process, it is inescapable that new IT,

11 For an overview of the engagement process, see Rogers-Hayden and Pidgeon 39; the main report was Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering 27;

and to support reflection on and learning from the process. If this posit materialises, FTA may be expected to be transformed in the coming years.

According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by which decisions are implemented

/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 281 As a counter-argument, Olsen 11 suggests that the process of governance may not always produce a precise and stable policy outcome.

As a consequence, the social construction of sustainable development becomes a process ofmanaging multidimensional social conflicts embedded in the six dimensions for sustainability as articulated systems:

and that, learning is the most important process. It is assumed also that learning is an interactive

and socially embedded process that cannot be understood without taking into consideration its institutional and cultural context.

and regulation process in a number of areas including food safety and environmental standards. The breadth and influence of those attempts have gone beyond national borders

and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.

and process contribute to such governance modes? The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged

In contrast innovation is the widespread use of an artefact, a social process in the widest sense,

FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.

loss of privacy Global food supply shortage Integration process of Asia and Africa Technologies out of control Changes in the gravity of the earth O. Saritas,

there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.

Taking the participatory aspect further and also incorporating citizens in the process could increase the scope of different views

In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.

the process of reflection and systematisation might also improve the knowledge of known unknowns. However, these are rather side effects that do not emanate from the main purpose of the methodology.

In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.

It is not possible to illustrate the long and complex discussion process which accompanied the planning.

But we will focus here on some examples related to the methods used and the levels in uncertainties in the process.

Limitations of models and other quantitative approaches have to be discussed in relation to the data that is included in the process.

and not only is it difficult to get out of that‘‘thought channelling''process, but one is usually not even aware that thoughts are being channelled.

For example, emergence is a process of change and embracing it can mean choosing to respond, continuously, to that change, sympathetically and synergistically rather than a controlling, combative style:

and outcomes (futures) resulting from a change process, rather than working with (in) interactions of the systems components itself.

Table III shows how promoting variation can be applied in practice at each stage of the simplified policy making process:

and non-governmental organisations (NGOS) are consulted during this process. In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.

Before FFRC was invited to facilitate the scenario process, the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050:

and some of them were challenged during the scenario process. Unless otherwise stated in the depiction of the scenarios introduced in this paper

Methodology The scenario process was carried out as a concise Delphi process which consisted of two rounds of web questionnaires and of two futures workshops,

The Delphi process was adopted to VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 305 provide a basis for a group communication process,

Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,

Table I presents the progress of the process in a concise form. The invitations to answer the Delphi questionnaires were sent to the entire expert panellists'group (n 140.

I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,

online survey targeted for expert group (with Webropol survey software) Inviting the expert group to the process

ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:

what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,

and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:

which is a process of predicting the future on the basis of current trend analysis,

The backcasting process can be divided roughly into two basic phases. First a desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as a continuation of present trends,

A recent current in backcasting theory and practices has been adding participatory elements in the backasting process.

In this scenario task the participatory process was carried out as futures workshops (see chapters 2. 2 and 2. 4). Here,

First round of Delphi questionnaire The process was kicked off with the first round of a Delphi questionnaire.

In a political process there is a need for practical and easily digestible information, such as clear figures.

Using scenarios in decision-making is ideally a continuous process rather than a onetime exercise. External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed

A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.

2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report.

The scenario team had collected a very impressive and insightful group of people to act as expert panellists for the Delphi and the scenario process to balance out the time constraints.

It is interesting to note that the results produced in the FFRC's process were altered slightly as they were presented in the final publication by the Prime minister's Office.

Taking the participatory aspect further and also incorporating citizens in the process could increase the scope of different views

Emergence is the process or event of something coming into existence. For technological development this notion then relates to the very early stages of technological development.

In this seemingly chaotic process it is important to look for the first signs that appear and indicate emergence.

The fact that these roadmaps are made is an indication that actors involved in this process link up to reach a common goal.

when both are charged electrically (electromechanical process). The nanotubes will then stay in this position due to the Van der waals forces. 11 These forces cause the nanotubes to remain their position,

The reason for this process is that hard drives are too slow to directly run programs from

and launch a transparent global process for evaluating the socioeconnomic health and environmental implications of the technology.

This process can also be observed in the development of nonvolatile memories. Typical problems addressed here were

This led to the recognition of a specific set of promising applications (the same process happens at the market side,

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