urban planning has become more of an action-oriented process with short and medium-term horizons.
whether it is convenient and feasible to recover these tools for the sake of our cities. 2. The standard urban planning process
cultural and socioeconomic contexts, there is a standard process which exemplifies the procedures followed in most countries
The value chain is kept under surveillance by a continuous feedback process. The second set is composed of horizontal elements that provide integral support for all the operational procedures of the planning value chain.
Since there are solid arguments for raising futures studies to a relevant position within the urban planning process,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues. Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes:
the proposed methodology establishes a set of functional implications that each future scenario poses for the urban planning process.
For this purpose, the conceptual framework displaying the standard urban planning process, shown in Figure 1, is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025).
However, modelling tools should support the process and not drive it. In fact, the sophistication of many statistical and mathematical models is more apparent than real
Law tends to adapt to the passage of time through a gradual process, and hesitates to anticipate forthcoming developments.
and unfiltered channel bridging one with the other (the unpredictable dynamics of the political process get in the way).
and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process. The consultation of experts as a methodological approach to the study of the future of law resulted in a very original and creative exercise.
and as already mentioned with regard to the consultation process and the think piece contributions, LOTF aimed to cover an extensive range of legal dimensions
the process of expansion of international rules and institutions reverses and legal borders thickens; dominated by state-made law borders;
the anticipation of the future is increasingly being carried out through the advanced tools that help process, search,
It is a process that goes backwards, connecting the future to the present. After a given period of time, a law of this kind would go through a‘‘future verification''assessment, in
not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society, it would also render legislators
as well as the process of replacing them with new ones, a more reliable and evidence-based procedure.
The process of lawmaking is often tortuous and obscure. The legislative preparatory phase may be depicted as a battle field,
and the political bias surrounding the legislative process, the application of foresight methods and tools to Law should be as scientifically-sound as possible.
Delorenzi, D.,Shane, J. M. S. and Amendola, K. L. 2006),‘The compstat process: managing performance on the pathway to leadership'',The Police chief Magazine, Vol. 73, pp. 34-40.
interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,
but also for the communication of assumptions and results during or at the end of a TA process since the current situation creates a lot of terminological fuzz, misinterpretations and misconceptions.
The aim rather is to initiate a process of shaping of technology in which the emergence of new technologies is accompanied by mutual co-operation between technology development and impact analysis, between sustainability research and nanosciences,
and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
Many activities that are considered as nanotechnology are closer to R&d for enabling technologies than they are embedded in a product (or process) development,
and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.
and moderated process with a multidiscipplinar and cross-functional group of experts to develop and visualize an analytical structure
it may offer valuable insights for the entire TA process. Other assumed benefits for the TA practitioner are the identification of gaps of knowledge,
it is expected that this process allows more reliable judgements about product ideas and visionary applications thought up by proponents (and sometimes propagandists) of nanotechnology, about the realism and the realisation periods of these concepts as well as about the potential of competing conventional technologies.
The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions
and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
some scientists are restrained somewhat about their participation in a roadmapping process. Some fear to disclose too much sensitive knowledge to potential competitors,
and evolution is an essentially open-ended and non-optimising process. We use a simple illustration of a mountaineer to illustrate such an open-ended process of path-finding
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
Animals, as well as technologies, are domesticated in a historical process. For ordinary human beings, what used to be a beast can one day become cattle.
evolution is a process that creates continuously newforms. Akey starting point for Bergson was the belief that evolution is truly creative,
With some simplification, this‘élan vital'could perhaps be called‘the process of life'.'It is‘teleology in action,
Intuition and instinct allow us to grasp the ongoing process and flow of life. Out of this continuity, intellect, in turn, constructs a world that consists of discontinuities and potential breaking points.
Although the process of life transpires in a continuous world where distinctions are nonexistent our intellect is a tool for intervention.
In the Bergsonian model of evolution, the process of life creates newforms and newpossibilities for action.
The continuous process of creative evolution thus creates as its mirror image an ontological reality that expands.
Ontological expansion in the mobile space This process of ontological expansion can be illustrated by comparing the evolution of the biological eye and the mobile telephone.
Nor can the elements of an eye be generated in a teleological process that aims at producing an eye.
and drives this process? One possibility is to take the Bergsonian model of evolution seriously
the moving ahead towards undefined directions that can perhaps only be described as the process of life.
The process is determined not by a plan or programme, and it does not optimise any given function;
We may illustrate the expansionary character of this process using alpinism as a metaphor. When a mountaineer climbs a mountain face, at each hold,
and it needs to be described as a complex process that transpires in several different time scales in parallel (Tuomi 1999,203).
In their original depiction of natural drift, Maturana and Varela (1988, chap. 5) described the process of evolution using a metaphor of water drops rolling down from the top of a mountain.
however, are inadequate for explaining the process of evolution, as evolutionary change is strongly underdetermined by selection (Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991,195).
Schön (1987,31) illustrated such a process by recounting Edmund Carpenter's description of the Eskimo sculptor patiently carving a reindeer bone,
As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process, it is believed often that conflict can be reduced by decision processes that emphasise data and facts.
however, mean that the dimensions of such‘control space'also emerge in an evolutionary process.
A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Ogilvy, J. 2011.
Process and reality: An essay in cosmology. Corrected ed. Newyork: Free Press. Wright, A. 2005.
'The boundaries of the tectonic plates and the understanding of the process of subduction are elucidated reasonably well distinguishing two processes differing in terms of their tendency to follow‘stiction'or‘lubrication'.
There is a secondary process: that arises from the unknown knowns in the FTA team's distribution of knowledge and the depth of it.
or models to specify the information to be collected process is highly efficient since aberrations (classified as‘noise')do not have any causal source At the natural pole,
Actionable future visions Timely mitigation of negative impacts or adaptation to new situations and exploitation of positive outcomes Guidance and support for the policy process identifying impacts on society and implications for policy,
Elicitation of expert opinion is a deep and arduous process. It was invoked in the IFTFS study to gather information for the main parts of the study that later involved scenario generation The elicitation process used facilitated the later combination of quantitative
as well as new networks among stakeholders Embedding participation in policymakkin Facilitating the participation of civil society in the policymakkin process,
and legitimacy Supporting policy definition Jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition
partners and stakeholders networks Research institutions first step in strategic process Source: Schoen et al. 2011). ) by universities and firms, the production, diffusion and transfer of knowledge;(
and consider what they mean for the process of foresight. After all, the conscious and deliberate production of expectations in foresight occurs in an environment where promises
This adds a reflexive and strategic dimensiio to the process of foresight, as we saw in the anticipation of the hype cycle,
The role of technological expectations in a mixed model of international diffusion of process innovations:
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87. Dierkes, M.,U. Hoffmann,
Energy efficiency in industrial process technologies. Technovation 26, no. 9: 1029 44. Mackenzie, D. 1990. Inventing accuracy:
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
Motorola's technology roadmap process. Research Management 30, no. 5: 13 19. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014
and this instability creates uncertainty for rationally bounded managers who are not able to fully collect, process,
The structure of the chemical industry resulted from an as yet uncompleted consolidation process and also from the rise of new competitors in Asia, Middle east,
These were built via a top-down process that started at corporate level, by first taking into account the global economy
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
A scenario building process was carried out with a special focus on changing mobility patterns in urban lifestyles,
These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
Insight from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87. Daheim, D,
Organizational strategy, structure, and process. Newyork: Mcgraw-hill. Milliken, F. J. 1987. Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment:
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
These can and should be triggered by customers to enable the process to be effective and able to deliver the expected value.
The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
It is the process of seeking in the present to bridge the gap between the present and the future continuously,
Learning is then a continual process that also takes place during each implementation cycle: the firm will be armed then with better and clearer opportunities for an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance and to deal with disruptive change, in alignment with the partners in its network.
According to Gertler and Wolfe (2002), networked learning enables a process of adaptation that is participatory and interactive and in
and intution-Formal and powerful processes-Sustainability-driven firm-Positive emotions (ratio at or above 2. 90) lead to creativity across the sustainability net, focus on innovative ideas-Participative process;
inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
Project management process maturity (PM) 2 model. Journal of Management in Engineering, 18, no. 3: 150 5. Larsen, A. H. 2003.
and sharing through the network to achieve a dynamic process of innovation, learning and continuous improvement Motivation Making available the necessary tools and an environmental where collaborators share responsibility
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
It becomes essential to compare the actual results (the way it is now as it is) with the expected ones (the way the organisation wishes to be as it ought to be), through a feedback process,
in order to shape sustainability and learning along the process. Monitor the business C It is to monitor all necessary information of how the business is running
Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities. It depends of being able to meet everything that was defined in the earlier plan stage
and navigation tools were provided also to IA leaders to allow them to explore the data independently. 3. Process,
The landscape maps were created using a process consistent with commonly accepted methods of mapping knowledge domains 1 (see Fig. 1:!
We also used an optimized stopword list prior to construction of the initial term Fig. 1. Process of putting data into a Vxinsight map. 3 FY=fiscal year,
The Sandia-specific IA map, generated using the process described above, is shown in Figs. 3 and 4. Fig. 3 shows the Vxinsight view,
or to suggest potential collaborative opportunities between laboratories. 5. Future directions This is the first year that we have applied such analyses to our LDRD process.
Coming late in the annual process, the results have been more modest than they could have been.
We plan to start a similar process for the FY06 LDRD process, and carry it out much sooner in the annual process.
We have learned that it is important not to saturate the IA leads with the information from these analyses,
We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,
Section 3 presents the notion of process-based roadmapping that is based on the identification of knowledge space and roadmap scope.
In the process, some path gets chosen, either explicitly or implicitly, and the realised path then leads either to growth, even development or decline.
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,
In the context of systemic transformation capacities, the generic process of roadmapping is coarsely the following:(
Process-based roadmapping is a scalable method that can be used to study the micro-level for example,
To engage in a successful roadmapping process, the organisation does need not only to depict its present position,
Thus, the roadmapping exercise simultaneously fosters an anticipatory culture and structural openness through a systematic process and explicit visionary narrative.
and to iterate the process systematically. The theoretical background for the above formulations stems from the notion that roadmapping can be considered both as a line of strategic thought
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
As a process methodology, roadmapping consists of several modules. Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Furthermore, modularisation enables the tailoring of the roadmapping process to suit the needs of the different actors
and iterative process that produces weighed crystallisations, usually in a visual form, of an organisation's long-term vision,
Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping, systemic transformation capacities can be built through the following three steps:(
It describes the basic aims of the process and provides some views on the use of roadmapping material.
Roadmap scope Description Process aims Primary use of the roadmap R&d I: R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
depends on the specific aims of the process Forming practical organisatioona conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Systemic I:
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
policy perspective Innovation policy roadmapping Roadmap for developing synthesising policy perspectives for public actors Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Forming policy conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Downloaded by University of Bucharest
and combines roadmap knowledge‘spaces',depending on the specific aims of the process. The aim is to endorse business decisions on the basis of roadmapping.
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
The aim of the process was to form an outlook of development directions in building services, its research needs and business potential to the year 2020 (Paiho et al. 2007.
foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process. During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
The process was based on a novel combination of methods. The integrative methodology rested on the model of expansive learning (Engeström 2001.
In the process, two practical methods were added to the model of expansive learning. First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
This integrated process was called learning by foresight and evaluation (with the acronym LIFE, learning by foresight and evaluation;
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
The roadmapping process was realised in two phases: the first phase was thematic interviews and the second phasewas roadmapping.
and its future possibilities Capacities for use of the existing service knowledge Knowledge generated via roadmapping was used iteratively throughout the strategy building process, e g. definition of service, identification of most important research needs,
I type roadmapping process, which aimed to contribute to the strategic and visionary spaces, and to come up with related business decisions.
The process was realised in 2005 2007 between VTT Technical research Centre of Finlaand FOI (Sweden SINTEF (Norway), and DTI (Denmark.
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities Nordic ICT Foresight can be perceived as a systemic II type of policy-oriented foresight process,
We presented a model of a process-based roadmap with four knowledge spaces, which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,
process-based roadmapping is one potential avenue for the construuctio of such mobile strategies. On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
Overall process and detailed modules. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 5: 567 83. Myllyoja, J.,N. Wessberg,
'This process integrates (a) heavily empirical‘Tech Mining'with (b) heavily expert-based multipath mapping.
By‘innovation',we mean a novel technical contribution effectively translated into a successful product or process (i e. commercialisation.
but emphasise that FIP is not a once-through, linear process. Rather, this method gathers information pursuant to the various steps,
engaging experts, is an iterative process. In our FIP exercises to date, expert engagement has tended towards informal,
4. Results We emphasise the relatively novel steps in our 10-step FIP process (Figure 1) for the DSSC case:
tracking materials to technology to functions to applications. engaging with those knowledgeable about the technology through the process of further specifying the set of important, and distinctive, functions;
following the process described and demonstrated by Robinson and Propp (2008). Their expert workshops involve a wider spectrum of experts and stakeholders for a more extended interaction (e g. full day.
Figure 6 shows an introductory slide to initiate the workshop process. It presents some key elements that we established in our desk research,
The process should also explore‘how'these could be brought about. For instance, does need a particular call for government funding or standard setting?
Through this process, many findings come into view as to what should have priority for promoting innovation.
Therefore, deriving the maximum benefit from foresight activities requires a carefully designed and actively driven transfer process of foresight results into research policy making.
This paper aims to present such a process(‘‘strategic dialogue'')and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.
and linked to the process. Findings Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as foresight into research policy making.
we illustrate the process with three examples from Germany and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research related to transferring results from foresight
If the transfer of foresight results is essentially a dialogue process then the question arises
B policy dialogues initiated by policy makers to gain public support (not to be confused with the process of developing policies in the first place;
both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
and thus needs to be involved in the process in a targeted way. A careful choice of individuals to participate in the dialogue in the first place is beneficial A recurring example of the application of the RAP is the involvement of representatives of trade bodies in strategic dialogues.
The process should be constructed to make maximum use of the concentration of knowledge about one particular industry that such a trade body representative has.
However, the process also needs to take into account that trade body representatives have tied their hands in terms of changing their viewpoint during a dialogue
framing and structuring cannot be achieved in a single well-defined step it is an iterative process throughout the life of the dialogue To involve a wide range of stakeholders in a topic area that is initially rather fuzzy,
reservations and sensitivities but need to do so without assuming these can necessarily be influenced The process of beliefs being updated that is captured by the model of Bayesian learning applies in several contexts during a strategic dialogue.
and‘‘dialogue''as a creative process aimed at generating insight and, in some cases, consensus In the case of strategic dialogues,
Relevant stakeholders from politics need to be identified at the beginning of the process to ensure their involvement in initializing the strategic dialogue and clarifying relevant issues and expected results.
External stakeholders are being identified in the course of the process based on input from political stakeholders complemented by input from our own research as well as established networks into academia and industry.
Thus, a constructive framework for further discussions throughout the process can be established. 4. 2 Step 2:
Expectations regarding the final results as well as the process design are addressed. Key success factors as well as potential obstacles are covered also.
stakeholders need to be assured of our neutral role as facilitators of the process. However, stakeholders must not get the impression that the facilitator is‘‘on their side''.
Expansion towards external stakeholders Based on the collected information from various sources the issues to be addressed in the further course of the process can be expressed with greater precision.
A proposal for a customized process design is developed and agreed according to the requirements of the BMBF.
and the process to the experts as well as to collect initial input to describe the starting point
A bottom-up, participatory process produced a broader set of grand challenges. Research limitations/implications The concept of grand challenges is still relatively new.
Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
which combined analysis of global changes with a participatory process involving national stakeholders. The exercise was designed to assess the implications of global changes for research.
A number of points are developed then that are related to the process and results described in the case study. 3. 2 Scope and context of the exercise In the second half of 2010,
In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
Foresight initiatives play an important role in this process by challenging the research and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
bottom-up process that assembled grand challenges by combining knowledge on drives and trends with national context and insights.
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