while the procedure follows an anonymous, multi-stage communication process based on several survey rounds (Turoff,
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
or in the R&d agenda setting process, it may therefore be strategically important to identify what kind of technologies are rated as important for these three countries;
Hax, A. and Majluf, N. 1996), The Strategy Concept and Process: A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London.
and compared in an iterated process until the suggested policy provides satisfying results. Hamarat et al. 11 explore the application of EMA combined with a number of tools in a case that focuses on a large systemic transformation or transition of an energy generation system towards a more sustainable functioning.
create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process, and legitimate a chosen course of action through engagement and dialogue.
in Germany the process is less coordinated and does not involve heterogeneous stakeholders nor make use of the knowledge gained in various FTA.
However, one must be aware that the relevance of quantitative methods may lie more in their systematic process of comparing policy alternatives under different scenarios,
Tuomi 14 suggests that the ontological unpredictability4 of innovative process cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
'and to contribute to the robustness of FTA, in terms of process, content, and impacts. Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
Visualisation of quantitative data 36 can be a useful way of bringing these data to a workshop or another qualitative process.
In this case results of qualitative and quantitative techniques feed into each other at several stages of the process
and ignorance typically issues being dealt with by FTA the value of models is (at least) as much in the process as in the output. 8 Another common misconception associates subjectivity and value judgement to qualitative processes,
processed and analysed in the process. Unavoidably, policy-makers and stakeholders will assign a higher plausibility to scenarios that somehow resonate with their own visions.
Such a stepwise organisation of the participatory process allows for intermediate validation milestones, thus also decreasing the risk of stakeholders dominating the FTA PROCESS. 14 The importance of this in the context of this paper lies in keeping a balance in participation of stakeholders
Proficiency and Publishing. 14 Da Costa et al. 72 illustrate the stepwise organisation of the participatory process by suggesting the application of varying degrees of participation in each phase of the foresight process
J. Educ. 100 (1992) 236 256.54 T. D. Jick, Process and Impacts of a Merger:
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.73 B b. Hughes, P. D. Johnston, Sustainable futures:
It includes two dimensions the competitive impact and integration in products or process and four stages.
, Marcus Lange 15 Backward citations Immediacy of patent citations Forward citations Dependent claims Priorities Duration of the examination process Data base requirements Fig. 2
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 We propose a normalisation method with two steps to pre-process the original data.
Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.
In both cases there is no kind of genetic inheritance controlling the ceiling of the growth process.
We have witnessed a natural evolutionary process of the human understanding of the socioeconomic realm that was forced to follow (we may say in a fractal fashion) the same path,
All of the extraordinary organizational forms and behavioral strategies that we witness in nature or society have arisen through the process of inheritance with diversification and selection.
In a very recent book edited by John Ziman 15 (Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process) we have different authors theorizing about these questions,
not only organisms, can be explained as the product of a mindless and mechanical algorithmic process). Campbell defended a universal evolutionary
or selection theory, claiming ultimately that all innovative design is produced by one or another variation-plus-selection-plus-transmission process,
and proposed the acronym BV (blind variation)+ SR (selective retention) to designate the process. The most important arguments introduced by Campbell in this discussion can be resumed:
and natural selection, making unvarnished organic evolution a purely random variation and selective retention process. Technological evolution (and cultural evolution as a whole) must be subject to more or less analogs of these four forces,
but the more general process of evolution of complex systems dfor which organic evolution is but one instance.
or in other words, the basic process of Gene Culture Coevolution, which is the most appropriate approach to develop a firmly based ETTC.
T technological evolution cannot be thought as an independent evolutionary process, but it is part (the most energetic one) of a broad co-evolutionary set of processes,
Stephen Wolfram 32, has been applied to the evolutionary simulation of the innovation diffusion process by a group of the Hebrew University led by Jacob Goldenberg and Sorin Salomon 33,
whose continuing evolutionary process conduces to increasingly complex systems; cultural evolution (and technological evolution as well) is the continuation of biological evolution by other means;
technology must be viewed as the further improvement of this process by intelligent means (then allowing too for intentionality),
technological evolution is not an independent evolutionary process, but it is the fastest and more energetic among a broad innovation-driven and co-evolutionary set of processes, composing the whole of the world system.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1150 recent proposal of this author with George Modelski for a seminar on Globalization as Evolutionary Process 40 to be held in the spring of 2005 in Paris,
From Chaos To order, Perseus Books, Cambridge, Ma, 1998.15 J. Ziman (Ed.),Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process, Cambridge university Press, 2003.16 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter
2003 February) 52 59.40 T. Devezas, G. Modelski, Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling, Simulating and Forecasting Social Change, a Proposal of a Seminar to the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation,
and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.
Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process. Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
and may result in situations where the results of FTA projects are contested by one ormore of the actors involved in the process
an interactive and co-evolving process, Res. Policy 31 (2002) 1467 1479.30 C. S. Holling, Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, John Wiley & Sons, New york, 1978.31 R. J. Mclain
the process of exploiting the information contained in such a set through a large number of computational experiments,
and even some base metals such as copper 19 22 and lead 23 may in a few decades become more difficult and expensive to mine and process,
Moreover, a participatory process has resulted in the agreement that no more than 510,000 operations can be scheduled at Schiphol in 2020.
Alternatively, EMA offers the potential to support the process of creatively imagining possible futures, a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.
-create and support a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors. -be helpful in engaging decision-makers in specific issues,
or perceived modes of thinking about the future and multiple stakeholder values are initiating enablers or barriers for the scenario process.
In the context of this paper, we will argue that this process of reflexive inquiry will provide the basis for creating new insights
with innovation no longer seen primarily as a process of discovery, i e. new scientific or technological principles,
but rather as a nonlinear process of learning 36. An innovation system is never static; it evolves with alterations in the content of technologies and products as well as in the relationships among various other innovation systems.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 experiments in the policy process, new concepts and sustainable solutions can be found to grand challenges.
so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.
4. Results and implications The value of scenarios lies in the robustness of the claims to knowledge within the process of the scenario development.
An overview of our findings is summarized in the subsequent sub-sections (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3). Each of these subsections includes a description of representation issues linked with the approach and methods used, input, process and main outcome.
Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional scenario practice 61.
Thus the scenario process can be seen as frame for dialogue, not to reach consensus but to recognize other parties'point of view.
and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
the community of practice being informed and the values inherent in the process. In this sense, no single discipline or particular prescribed set of methods can be considered to be optimal.
To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
different modes of futures thinking have been identified through the process of deconstruction. In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.
Hence, by using a reflexive methodology we were able to create a heuristic to learn from the process of developing
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional research, particularly as far as grand challenges are concerned.
and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.6 P. D. Andersen, M. Borup, K. Borch, J. Kaivo-oja, A. Eerola, T. Finnfjörnsson, E. Øverland
an interactive and co-evolving process, Res. Policy 14 (2002) 1 13.37 R. Sternberg, J. Pretz, J. Kaufman, Types of innovation, in:
Rather, it was driven a process by technology experts. The small section of the IWGN workshop report on the social impact of nanotechnology contains a vision on the future
Historical analysis indicates that the process of drawing the boundary so as to exclude Drexler's ideas was connected closely with controversies around the question,
the technology assessment activities and the vision building process served to link disperse organizations and research fields
summarizing the process and results of the forecasting exercises for nanotechnology in general and for various subfields of nanotechnology,
The vision-building process of 2010 served as an instrument to pool and coordinate FTA ACTIVITIES among government departments, agencies, and research communities.
K. Cuhls, A. Beyer-Kutzner, W. Ganz, P. Warnke, The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany, Technol.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.60 U. Felt, M. Fochler, Machineries for making publics:
For decades the dominant definition of innovation as new products and processes that are introduced to the market combined with the common understanding of companies as the main actors in this process was questioned hardly ever.
Fig. 7 shows the results of one assessment in an early stage of the process.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
and is therefore closing the phase of divergence at a quite early stage of the process.
In a classical scenario building process participants'contributions are channelled through the scenario building framework. This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach.
and stimulating diverse experts to participate in the process. Diverse signals were considered in the project
Reflecting the process ofweak signal collection it can be noted thatwhen looking for signals the inclusion of diverse experts is crucial.
the feedback received from the numerous participants during the INFU process as well as from audiences of INFU presentations in several different communities3 allows for somemethodological conclusions.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.2 R. Miller, Futures literacy:
and more by a process of geological accretion where the structures and policy styles of earlier decades continue, perhaps with some diminution,
able to serve a wide array of decisionmakkin process. Indeed it is this paradoxical‘‘short-termism''of FTA its capacity to meet pressing needs that may be most symptomatic of a context that is rich not only on the practical side but also the theoretical.
and the Danish research 2015 process, from 2008, which focus on priority settings for strategic research. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
future-intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions'.
and the Research2015 process, from 2008. In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.
the government launched a process that was to meet the Grand challenge of increasing globalisation. The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision
Every four years, such a process should result in a catalogue of important themes for strategic research.
This initiative provided the background for the Research2015 process, which was initiated by a passage in the Parliament in November 2006 as part of the national budget negotiations for 2007.
The evaluation of the process revealed that the material from the OECD horizon scan was used only to a very limited degree.
other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process. The key actors in this phase were the five negotiators from each of the five parties that were behind the Globalisation Strategy.
or 5 6%.An overview of the whole process is presented in Table 3. The evaluation of the Research2015 process may be considered a fifth phase.
The evaluation focused on both the research process and the result of the process 33.
The process fulfilled its two major objectives it formed an improved basis for prioritisation of strategic research,
What is not clear is how the political priorities for strategic research would have appeared without the Research2015 process. 2 The total governmental R&d expenditures consist of two parts:
Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods
The Research2015 process included foresight methods such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels, dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops.
When during the Research2015 process, the expert group worked to reduce the number of themes for strategic research
Furthermore, new and deviating ideas from actors who had conflicting interests were introduced during the process,
The two processes did include expertise-and evidence-oriented elements (such as the OECD horizontal scan in the Research2015 process or the fact sheets in the Globalisation Council process),
Thus, indirectly a creativity dimension is included in the process. The advantages of using negotiation in Danish settings are obvious.
This participative negotiation process, which involves seminars and workshops, provides an obvious opportunity to create a synergy effect due to the creative processes that are shaped by bringing together experiences and ideas from many different interest domains.
Phase Process Results Involvement 1: Mapping OECD horizontal scanning Public hearing among all interested citizens Input from ministries 125 trends and challenges 432 suggestions 90 suggestions In principle, everybody interested in strategic research 2:
of the process Reduction to 31 themes for strategic research Expert group (8 persons) User panel (53 persons) 3:
We proceeded from policy makers'increasingly common requirement that in their content and process, national foresight exercises must be integrated better into the actual national policy making processes.
but also in the factors that affect the potential impact on the policy process, we look at the perceived levers and barriers as well.
How are used the results in the strategic policy process, and in which phase (s) specifically? What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes?
In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
a retrospective attitude may suggest a process more linear than it actually was focused), we especially on the consistencies between the document analyses and the in depth interviews.
both from a content perspective and from a process perspective. The two national studies show that civil servants are increasingly knowledgeable about futures research methods,
and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
the motive is said to be driven process. Examples of process-driven motives are: stimulating interdepartmental dialogue gathering support for ideas and policies developing a common cognitive frame of reference (a common ground of understanding)( see also 5, 11) Finally,
all motives have to do with learning about the future, at an individual and group level 13,14. 3. 3. How are used the results in the strategic policy process, in which phase?
The results of the cases made it clear that, at the local level, it is still difficult to connect the insights of a scenario exercise to different steps in a strategic policy process.
Scenario exercises themselves are seen mostly as a project, not as an ongoing strategic process. It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.
An effort has been made, as part of this research, to identify some of the levers and barriers related to this linkage problem (see below).
To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits
while local policy-makers are oriented more process. In addition, we discovered a kind of connection paradox at the national level.
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process. For example policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use
and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.
When this buy in happens too late in the process, there is less internal support, and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis.
the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).
foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process. Most local policy-makers indicated that the foresight process took more time than they initially expected.
the duration of the process does not appear to be a major issue. Initiating new foresight processes just before a new Minister
the organisational embeddedness and (subsequent) use is not a fully rational process and depends on other factors, some
because not drawing conclusions means that there is no connection between the foresight study and the policy development process.
process-oriented effects of using foresight methods were emphasised, while, at the national level, greater emphasis was placed on content-related issues.
There were also similarities with regard to the implementation of foresight studies and the use of foresight insights, for example the important success factors of leadership and confidence in the process.
it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building and connecting to other activities,
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij
At the same time, the process must be designed to cope with shifting objectives and stakeholders'expectations during the implementation phase (i e. the so-called responsiveness of the process) 13.
This means that relevant stakeholders should be involved in some form of dialogue (methods vary) across different stages of the process to share their views regarding achievements and their meaning,
while being adaptive both in terms of process (combine open and collective with closed and expert-driven stages) and results (different options for different audiences,
when they claim that an effective communication process with all stakeholders involved, including those in the initial phase of information collection,
and to all who are involved throughout the process 12. Furthermore, it is important to make sure that these aspects are integral to both the strategic and the operational aspects of the exercise
for instance, regarding the decision-making power of stakeholders due to the bottom-up aspects of the process. It is important
regional, and national systems that it is also important for the people making decisions to be involved in the process and feel ownership of its results.
The latter claims that foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process to that of individual actors'strategies.
Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
The basic idea is to add a process cycle to complement foresight with a phase of‘strategic counselling'.
as well as mutual learning so that the process could adapt to needs along the way. In this way the approach proposed would link the strategic goals of the Commission with the operational aspects of the process.
It would also ensure that a consensus among project partners and between these and the Commission would emerge along the way.
with over 350 international participants from 150 industrial organisations. 5 Ko nno la et al. 8 refer to modularity of process design where analogous sub-processes
JRC-IPTS coordinated the entire process and supported four groups that involved all project partners in developing the four snapshots.
During a period of a month and a half a number of online tools were used for this process.
However, it may be far more relevant how the whole process created a systemic understanding and a common vision amongst the stakeholders taking part in the exercise.
and implementation of the project by bringing together the identification and discussion of intended impacts with efforts to define each operational step and question related to guiding the process.
Initial efforts to arrive at a systemic understanding of the process, when combined with both open consultations
It also enabled the process and results to be adaptable to changes such as evolving client needs (from a list of priorities for research collaboration feeding the framework programme).
In this context, the partner meetings were vital to adapt the process to the evolving client's needs and partners'expectations,
For instance, during the scenario building process, further clarification was needed, which required returning to previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken and, most importantly,
The idea of embedding such modularity was adapted from another international exercise 29 where stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process.
If this happens it may undermine the stakeholders'commitment to the process and the trustworthiness of the exercise at large 8. Hence,
even if the process as a whole may then exhibit more inertia. By considering the above features in the design phase it is easier to manage the process according to plan.
In the IMS2020 project such flexibility was obtained by encouraging partners to have embedded smaller meetings whenever workshops
Moreover, parallel group work with support from online tools was embedded in the process allowing the project to be kept within the planned schedule. 4. 3. Capacity to reconfigure international networks Table 2 below outlines how formal and informal
As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management. In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed
Stakeholders Selection process Type of network Methods for engaging and informing Project partners Expertise Formal Face-to-face meetings, video/teleconference, Groove, email,
workshops, meetings) enabled flexibility in the overall process, such as the one mentioned for developing scenarios and a shared vision.
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
from an indicator to a network and process perspective, Technology analysis and Strategic management 13 (4)( 2001) 533 553.19 F. J. Contractor, P. Lorange (Eds.
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis and Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 1 232.24 T. Ko nno la, Innovation roadmap:
and underlines that Foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process and get to the level of individual actors'strategies.
The contribution provides a process outline and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials
It also describes the major methodological challenges involved in the process. In the paper‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications,'Blind illustrates three methodologies for performing Regulatory foresight.
For example, knowledge generated through the application of fta methods, FTA as a process of coproduuctio of stakeholder communities (i e. social capital),
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