By then, Vienna is aiming to be among Europe's leading metropolitan areas in research, technology and innovation,
as well as a perspective on future challennge and key areas for action that had been developed in the context of a participatory process.
and clustering as important instruments for enhancing the innovative performance in emerging areas of specialisation (OECD 2002).
and implementation Vienna is the key centre for science and research in Austria as well as in the wider central European area to
Function Time lag Targeted and/or unintended impact Informing Immediate Increased recognition of a topic area Awareness of science,
establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas
thus fostering the socioeconomic development of thevienna metropolitan area by giving those impulses a regional government can specifically provide.
and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.
between panel work and broad participation The participatory nature of the strategic process is demonstrated by involving more than hundred stakeholders from various areas in the panel work,
and innovation area in the CENTROPE region, there were no participants invited from across the border.
The panel reports had to provide an analysis and outlook on future challenges in their respective areas,
5) Integrating Vienna's RTI in European networks and strengthening co-operation within the CENTROPE region in order to create a common RTI area that will successfully compete in Europe and in the world. 4. 3. From strategy to action:
to pull factors in the area of socioeconomic demand or application potential on the demand side.
2) Key areas profile and relevance: Specific thematic areas that are both relevant and visible are to be supported,
building in particular on the existing key areas of life sciences, information and communication technology and creative industries.
In addition, the development of a number of new avenues of research and innovation is being promoted.
A first call in this new area was launched in the first half of 2008, focusing on Arts&sciences.
This applies, for instance, to initiatives to be taken in the context of the wider CENTROPE area
As part of the process a jointly developed view of the main future objectives, challenges and key areas of action was agreed upon, combining elements of a joint vision.
and areas of policy action requiring a better networked approach, both within local government and beyond (e g. innovationorieente procurement), were addressed in the process,
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation
as for example within the areas of environmental regulation or energy conservation. In the Norwegian municipal visioning project stakeholder participation was socially and politically legitimised by the municipal government and the municipal employees responsible for the project.
which showed a possibility space with three broad areas shaded in different colours (Figure 1). These broader areas were called alternative 1,
Yet these three areas were situated already around one central dotted line which led straight to the desired future vision,
During several presentations of the project, the project leaders showed an illustration figuring predators fighting over the right to decide area planning in Germany's capital Berlin (Figure 2).‘Why the young people?'
This means that this time the focus is on areas of action which address the well-being of the citizens
To avoid political discussions about unrealistic use of municipal areas resulting from the young Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 978 S. Jenssen Figure 2. Illustration by German cartoonist
if not expertise then lay knowledge about a specific area, defining them as non-experts (Cañellas-Boltà and Strand 2006),
Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!
however, is the prevailing clear distinction between areas of governance, as steering and decision-shaping and of politics as decision-making (Johnston 2002).
or probe more deeply into a more specific sub-area (e g.,, nano-surfaces and rare-earth materials for SOFCS.
and characterised focus areas of competences by making extensive use of Internet-based tools and by engaging in intensive deliberations at facilitatedworkshops.
In addition to scientific fields and technological areas, even other dimensions of balance had to be addressed (e g. gender issues, representation of geographical regions.
This made it possible to ensure that several dimensions of balance (including gender, regions, representation of scientific fields, technological areas,
A focus area of competence was defined as a community of collaborating actors that (1) create
Items in the template included questions on (i) what scientific fields and technological areas the focus areawas linked to,(ii)
what societal and industrial needs would be addressed by strengthening the focus area,(iii) what possibilities the focus areawould offer for the concrete application of related knowledge,
for instance by way of innovations,(iv) through what measures the development of the focus area could be promoted best.
and focus areas of competence through the internet before the panel meetings. Specifically, about three weeks before the first panel meeting the purpose
of which was to address driving forces that would set the stage for the development of focus areas each panellist was requested to propose through the internet three to five driving forces using the template.
In the same vein, before the second panel meeting the panellists were requested to submit three to five proposals through the internet questionnaire for focus areas of competences using the template.
so that the other panellists could evaluate the focus areas with regard to (i) current level of expertise in Finland
and applicatiion of knowledge pertaining this focus area of competence?)and (ii) the future demand for this expertise (i e. how strongly will the generation
and of knowledge in this focus area of competence respond to the societal and industrial needs in 2015?).
whether the focus area was among the most importaan third, the second most important third,
or the least important third out of all the focus areas by the panellists. Practically all panels started the assessment phase of focus areas only after additional proposals had been generated further to the discussions at the second panel meeting.
The internet-based questionnaires before the workshop meetings offered many benefits. First, the panellists could contribute equally to the process
Third, the templates for driving forces and focus areas of competence helped ensure the attention would be to stay on topics that were aligned with the objectives of the exercise.
3) The importance of cross-disciplinary synergies in the development of path-breaking innovattion suggested that explicit attention should be devoted to the opportunities offered by combinations of the focus areas that were deemed important by the different panels.
or focus areas were relevant to; these proposals were brought to the attention of the chairmen of these respective panels.
and focus areas of competences that it deemed central for the development of the R&i system.
In their reports, the panels were encouraged to examine a manageable number of topics (i e. some half a dozen driving forces and about ten focus areas.
and focus areas of competences could be analysed in sufficient depth in the panel reports. All the reports had the same heading structure
All panels identified about 6 10 focal competence areas and, for each of these, they elaborated the underpinning scientific and technological bases,
the panels also presented their thoughts as to how the focus areas might be developed best through R&i policy measures or other actions.
Examples of these focus areas are given in Table 1. Here it is worth highlighting that the identification of the competence area Assessment and management of global risks
(which have realised partly through the financial and economic crisis of 2008 09) was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments, due to its relatively small size and the structure of its economy.
and those policy makers who would not have the opportunity to read the full Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 Axes of balance in foresight 995 Table 1. Examples of focal areas of competences identified by the panels.
Panel Examples of focal competence areas 1. Learning and learning society Neurological, cognitive, motivational and social basis of learning Practices of lifelong learning, the education system and informal
highlighting the focus areas that the panel had stressed in its own report. The third part explored synergies at panel interfaces, building upon the results from the third meeting for the panel chairmen.
Furthermore, well over half the panellists (54%)reported that they had consulted at least four other experts beyond the other panellists before submitting their proposals for driving forces and focus areas.
because the foresight results characterised focal competence areas that would plausibly merit explicit attention in strategy implementation.
Indeed, the characterisation of focus areas in panel reports suggested that the panels had succeeded in reaching a consensus (whichwas actually the case in most panels),
and focus areas of competences was vital in ensuring that the panels'efforts would remain focused on the objectives of the exercise.
In hindsight, the development of novel methodological approaches in Finnsight most notably the definition of dedicated units of analysis (driving forces, focus areas of competences) and the extensive deployment of internet-based tools for engaging the panel
first in the area of genetically modified plants and then for the domain of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. 2. Background and rationale 2. 1. Tailoring Foresight a revision During the last two decades the field of Foresight has developed a lot through practical experience
i e. directed at a certain innovation area. The need to tailor policy instruments to the characteristics of the targeted field is grounded well in insights from research on the dynamics of innovation and knowledge generation.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 233 All these results point to the fact that diverse innovation areas need diverse governance tools
and innovation areas develop across and beyond inherited national environments. This choice does not mean that the national and regional levels are not to be taken into consideration.
and degrees of international inter-linkage or even post-national institutionalisation for different knowledge areas.
which has distinguished three abstract properties explaining differences between science-led areas. Growth. The rate of growth differs widely between fields.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging
whose intensities reflect the institutional complementarity between industry and academia within a given techno-scientific area.
and European level as the reference document for the orientation of research in this area. Two other key elements are contributing to the future of this research field.
which the cultivated area of GM crops worldwide can be considered as a proxy. 11 Programming:
It stands at the side of areas as human genomics, metabolics, proteomics, philogenomics, bioinformatics, genomics, cancer...
To sum up the analysis revealed two types of Foresight useful for underpinning the European research and innovation system in the area of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies:(
and innovation area considered its fieldspeccifi Knowledge dynamics and (b) the institutional arrangement was described as interacting strategic orientation,
and areas of expertise will miss important signs from the broader business, cultural, and technological environments.
Three abstracts from different areas air-quality assessment, health care, and the auto industry demonstrate new applications of continuous monitoring.
and R&d potential in the area plus the capacity to realise that potential (feasibility). In the planning for the first UK Technology foresight Programme this system was articulated further to introduce the dimensions of cost and timescale 13.
and that, given the wide range of risk/reward profiles among the selected areas, that a portfolio approach should be adopted.
which saw priorities (in the sense of funded areas) emerge as bottom up projects at a much more focussed level.
Fig. 2 shows the evolution of the Framework programme priorities in terms of relative budget allocations to principal areas.
apparently de-prioritised areas are not necessarily run down in absolute terms, but only in relation to the growth of more favoured alternatives.
These multidisciplinary and cross-business function programs are aimed at technology leaps in strategic areas. Projects are not the focus of detailed selection effort the primary issue is one of addressing broad technology goals
or around broad areas of functionality()TD$FIG 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%FP6 FP5 FP4 FP3 FP2
Programmes are couched not in terms of particular areas of scientific discipline or expertise, nor are targeted they directly on specific business units in the corporate structure.
Warnke and Heimeriks caution that this alone will not lead towards certain socially desirable areas of innovation
and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,
Knowledge cluster programmes allow a focus on areas of an economy in which there is potential for innovation
The application of foresight approaches to these areas has been explored by Blind who focuses on approaches which identify future fields for regulatory action
''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
In this paper we focus our analysis on three areas that have been addressed increasingly by the foresight community:
The identification of key action areas for VTT water research and their priority-setting. Fixed Structured questionnaire;
Consensual FISTERA identified priority application areas where investments in ICT research should be intensified in the future, motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs.
FISTERA highlighted priority application areas where R&d investments should be intensified in the future, motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs 23.
and skill areas that a new Defence Research & development Canada (DRDC) Centre for Security Science might need to meet the anticipated national security.
There are quite distinct communities at work in different areas of practice, for example environmental/climatological, employment/skills, security/defence,
a matter of participatory democracy as commonly understood though such FTA could be an important contributor to establishing more deliberative democracy in S&t policy areas that have on account of the expert knowledge associated with them historically been dominated by vested interests and technocratic elites.
by failing to highlight critical emerging areas (notably microelectronics and advanced IT in the early 1980s).
what areas of study within the domain of interest should be selected, what specific questions might be used in the workshop),
This might include material such as a SWOT analysis related to the area of concern (how a country or organisation stands in relation to it
statistics of major developments relevant to this area; Delphi or other()TD$FIG Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledgee g d e l w o n k t i c i
or priority areas for further work that emerge from the preceding discussions. This is typically a result of a major‘‘socialisation''process in the workshop that can be externalised
lists of areas of expertise and experience are created in order to allow people to locate relevant informants).
and standards for responsible business conduct in a variety of areas including employment and industrial relations;
and regulation process in a number of areas including food safety and environmental standards. The breadth and influence of those attempts have gone beyond national borders
to improve salient areas of competitive context Responsive CSR6 Transform value-chain activities to benefit society
and a general analysis of the five areas. We were interested more in the distribution of responses than individual response patterns.
and Geopolitics) framework to map the five areas consistently. This allowed us to see the general patterns of preferences
so it is deemed even more important to work toward a more commonly accepted set of definitions for purposes of future work in this area. 2. 1. Trends The starting point for scanning definitions is usually to identify the key trends which are presently evident in the broad sense of being both discernible
these concern areas, involve factors and forces that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of one's investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&d,
The general area of health system developments and changes is also prominent. Perhaps the most provocative ones are the trends describing broad new domains of human evolution (e g. genetic manipulation
In contrast to the trends, the drivers are grounded more in current areas of expected leverage such as society-cultural change factors,
with the next area being new governance models. Overall, the lists provide a fertile field for some real dramatic change scenarios centred on some key discontinuities.
In many areas, the weak signals if and when they become strong will signify real shifts toward new
As in so many other areas, the impact of a particular finding may occur long after the project is completed,
and areas that law will need to take care of, to analyze and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical laws, contributing to the modernization of current legislative processes,
and by, technological developments in different areas; the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
heavy growth rates in freight transport in the EU on roads from and to eastern European countries Effect of a bypass road on kilometres driven in an area (additional traffic might be attracted.
They either systematically cut out a certain area of the web which largely can be described by quantitative relations (transport models) or,
at the other extreme, provide more punctual knowledge from rather different areas and are built mostly on experience,
On the one hand, working with such a cut out enables the detailed study of a certain area of the web;
it is not possible to detect any effects in excluded areas. So, models are hardly able to deal with known unknowns or unknown unknowns.
which caused large protest activities in the area of Stuttgart and even beyond (see S21, 2010).
It includes six priority areas for action which are connected with specific target dates, ranging from 2009 to 2014.
Originality/value Although neither complexity theory nor the concept of reframing is new in the area of foresight
but like any developing area there are many common themes. This paper will explore some selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for foresight techniques,
''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.
, perhaps in an unrelated area. For example a city's policy to increase the number of cabs available to go to the suburbs may have no effect
An example from another area is called an equation the logistic equation. fðxþ Rxð1 2 xþ is an apparently simple equation,
After much searching in many different areas of the city, you have finally found a possible flat to buy
and you go for a walk to explore the area a little more. You pass a newsagent and decide to drop in for a newspaper and some chocolate.
The lesson is often that the environment/time/space/area in which one works and lives in determines how one thinks (the mental model or frame),
These included researchers, officials and representatives of various business areas, as well as many NGOS. The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
as well as representatives from various business areas. The results of the first questionnaire were sent in advance to those who had confirmed their participation to the workshop.
The areas that will face the biggest pressure to change are energy intensive industry, polluting energy industry (especially peat energy), transport and logistics, construction, meat production and travelling.
Infrastructure planning and ecological wood building booming areas. Domestic demand for mass-consumption goods has fallen,
Average living space and total area of heated buildings has increased significantly. People commonly own more than one property (typically a city apartment or a town house and a holiday residence or cottage in the countryside) Transport Hugely increased telework,
These studies are part of a Dutch research and development programme that coordinates the efforts of leading research institutes and companies in The netherlands in the area of nanotechnology.
The horizontal dimension distinguishes between different core areas of technological activity: basic research and research for market applications.
we first briefly introduce the area of nanotechnology and nanotubes. Nanotechnology is a rising star in the set of new and emerging technologies.
and thus, will have an impact in all areas of economic activities (examples are the materials production industry, pharmaceutical industry, electronics industry).
when we look at how broad the application areas for nanotubes are addressed generally: pharmaceuticals, electronic devices, material production, energy technologies, etc.
This last is one of the most talked-about areas but one of the farthest from commercialisation, with one exception,
bthe developments in these growth and assembly areas suggest that highly integrated SWNT device arrays,
Since then he has been involved in a wide range of studies in the area of technology, innovation and society.
and open spaces in a small territory located in the northwestern periphery of the Madrid metropolitan area.
Figure 7 shows the current physical status (2010) of the study area, composed of four municipalities Cercedilla, Becerril de la Sierra, El Boalo and Navacerrada with 21,500
The study area reflects a fragile environment whose ecosystem could be disturbed irreversibly by the increasing impact of human pressure.
Nevertheless, it is bound to have an uncertain future due to its proximity to the overcrowded Madrid metropolitan area.
Under these circumstances, the study area will develop as follows (see Figure 8). There will be a lower consumption of urban land per capita and greater protection of rural land.
Within the study area, travel by motorized vehicles will be minimized in favor of non-motorized means (pedestrians, bicycles and electric vehicles.
Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,
Towns will become larger, with an ever-expanding peripheral area. Per capita urban land consumption will increase,
Number of people inhabiting a km2 of urbanized area Migration rate. Difference of immigrants and emigrants of an area in a year divided per 1,
000 inhabitants (considered on midterm population) Dependency ratio. Age-population ratio of those typically not in the labour face (the dependent part,,
Area of primary-production land needed to support the resource use of the dwellers on urban land VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 327 difficult to decouple the increasing environmental impact.
The protection of the natural environment will be confined virtually to areas declared as having natural importance,
Under these limitations, spatial development in the study area will occur in the following terms (see Figure 10.
Protected natural areas will cover most of the territory. Urban sprawl will be taxed heavily and the compact city model will be imposed.
and the city planning process. 4. Partial evidence for determining parametric and spatial implications in the study area was gathered in a research project financed by the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.,
) This project explored development trends in the metropolitan peripheries of Madrid, paying special attention to environmentally sensitive areas in the Guadarrama mountain range.
In the wide spectrum of sectors, areas, disciplines and contexts to which FTA has been applied and developed,
and areas of law will go through in the future. This innovative application of the Delphi method to Law resulted in an impressive collection of themes and visions, encompassing topics as diverse as the future of international law, national constitutional orders and private law,
which legal experts were consulted for their visions of the future of Law in their respective areas.
In brief, Compstat is a crime-mapping software application that highlights areas where criminal activities have occurred,
enabling officers to focus their efforts in problem areas, armed with real-time information, accurate intelligence, rapid deployment of resources, individual accountability,
computer applications to this particular area. Up until now, the application of ICT to Law has enabled the development of new models for understanding
identifying the most relevant topics and areas that law will need to act on; to analyse and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 345 laws, contributing to the modernisation of current legislative processes;
Further research is needed in this area, namely in terms of formulating quality standards and assessment methods 21 for such activities (which is,
and actors involved in areas and activities as diverse as legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
and technological trends in the area of nanotechnology and its implications is confronted with the problem that most scientific endeavours of nanotechnology can be allocated to basic research
Four further contributions analyse concrete cases of advanced FTA practices in areas that are characterised by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty.
that may include prioritising important areas of intervention, though prioritisation is underdeveloped an art. The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
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