and the overall chemical industry and subsequently elaborating regional and business scenarios in relation to each specific geographic and business area of the firm.
and Asia) and countries, by breaking down global scenarios into the firm's main sectors and business areas,
and potential business areas and for assessing investment (and divestment) decisions for Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 789 expanding
Future pharmaceutical R&d activities also promised to require huge investmennts so implying that resources had to be shifted from other, more attractive, business areas.
Existing tools (Appendix 2) operate in two broad areas: first, in a group of critical principles that need to be internalised into the core of the organisation's operations to shape the route towards sustainable development and, second,
Evaluation of Laboratory directed research and development investment areas at Sandia Kevin W. Boyack*,Nabeel Rahal Sandia National Laboratories, 1 P o box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185, United states
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
Sandia's LDRD program is divided into roughly a dozen different investment areas (IAS) including five that we focus on in this paper:
thus enabling them to better leverage investments in other areas. Benchmarking was accomplished by comparing the visualizations with the mental models of IA leads experts who have used,
in the past traditional processes to understand their areas and make funding decisions. Time was built into the plan to iterate the visualizations
if large differences were found between them and the leaders'mental models of their areas.
During our meeting with the CIS area leader, we first K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1126 gathered information
1) the CIS area, and (2) perceived overlaps between CIS and the other four areas,
and then we presented our maps to the individual. A graphic describing the CIS IA lead's mental model of the overlap between CIS
and the other four areas is shown in Fig. 2. First, the lead perceived that there was a significant fraction of the CIS space that was unique to the IA,
The two largest perceived overlaps were between CIS and the Engineering sciences (ES) and Materials Science and Technology (MST) areas,
The perceived overlaps with the Electronics and Photonics (EP) and Pulsed Power (PP) areas were much smaller
Fig. 4 shows that the main area for CIS is the large cluster of filled squares at the middle left.
This comprises the portion of the CIS area that is unique and not overlapping with other IAS.
Areas occupied solely by CIS are a significant fraction of the CIS total and correspond well to the mental model's view of unique space.
These two areas, ES and MST, show the Fig. 2. CIS IA leader's mental model of CIS overlaps.
which correlates well with the mental model of Fig. 2. EP shows two small areas of overlap with CIS,
One area of particular interest on the map is that found in cluster at the lower middle of the graph.
with the areas of focus shifting towards optimization of algorithms. The conceptual overlap between EP and MST has increased significantly in the past 2 years, especially in the area of integration for product application.
Shifts in focus in the individual IAS can be seen as well. For instance, a portion of the EP portfolio dealing with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology has shifted from component integration to applications.
Each area (CIS ES, EP, MST, and PP) is indicated by a different colored dot on the landscape.
Overlaps between areas can be seen where dots of different colors are shown together. Labels indicate the most dominant btitleq words and their frequencies for each peak on the landscape.
and remote sensing should also be taken into consideration as potential areas of collaboration. As a result of the findings above, it was advised that EP
Fig. 6 shows that significant areas of the graph, especially at the top and right, are covered not at all by any of the Sandia IAS.
N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1131 areas of interest to Sandia since the map indicates that they are well outside our core competency areas.
We are interested more in new opportunities in areas very related to our own competencies given that the barriers to entry would be given much lower our expertise.
and circles within the dashed region of Fig. 6. All of the non-Sandia records have been marked as black dots in Fig. 7. Examination shows several small clusters of data in areas that are very related to our computational
The area inside the dashed box is explored further in Fig. 7. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1132 competencies,
and that are potential areas of future opportunity for the CIS IA, given its current portfolio and competency base.
These areas include computational biology (both structural and genomics nonlinear algorithms, and climate modeling, labeled A b,
and climate modeling areas, and somewhat higher for nonlinear algorithms. Of course, in a final analysis, barriers to entry would be weighted against specific competencies and the people with those competencies in making decisions about
in addition to Fig. 7. Vxinsight view of the dashed inset from Fig. 6 of the area comprising most of the CIS IA.
thus show areas semantically within the Sandia CIS space, but that currently receive little or no Sandia investment.
For example, laboratory B has an area of common technical focus with laboratory A through lithography, laboratory C through fuel cells and biological systems,
His current areas of interest include the integration of information visualization technology with business intelligence. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1136
and solutions in the topic areas. The roadmapping process was also able to foster a shared understanding of the critical future gaps,
Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada Abstract Purpose This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different
It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
and technological areas, including specific areas and common factors to be promoted toward the desired society. The result shows that green-related
and life-related areas are two major areas where future innovation is expected. ICT, management and globalization are common factors that would be critical to promote innovations in these areas.
Originality/value This paper is a case study of combining outputs at the last stage of a national foresight exercise to identify areas where future innovation is expected.
It suggests the potential of combining outputs by capitalizing on the full value of the information obtained.
B the fusion of several areas in science and technology; B collaboration with the humanities and social science;
whereby the important areas were extracted through integrated discussions without being bound by existing disciplines. For this reason
They set 94 areas (groups of interrelated topics) with 832 topics. Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were carried out twice,
what cooperation and convergence among scientific and technological areas will be required to address four challenges by combining information to draw up the whole picture of future science
Based on the matrix, Delphi areas (groups of relevant topics) and scenario themes are positioned on a two-dimensional map by correspondence analysis.
Information on key areas from the Delphi survey is added to the map to discuss the overall view of science
and the Delphi areas (groups of interrelated topics) are summarized in a two-dimensional map (Figure 4). In the map,
The scenarios and Delphi areas Figure 3 Distribution of relevant topics by scenario theme PAGE 12 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 closely related are grouped together in reference to the results
As can be seen in the map, the scenarios and Delphi areas related to energy, resources, and environment gather on the left side,
On the other hand, the scenarios and Delphi areas related to health and medical care gather on the right side,
indicating their status as common infrastructure. 4. 3 Areas where innovation is expected in the future The Delphi survey identified 36 key areas out of all 94 areas set by the panels,
I. It is worth noting that 18 areas, half of the key areas above, are related to energy, resources, and environment.
This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines.
In the map circular dots indicate the 36 key areas above, which are graded according to the experts'expectation.
Square dots indicate the five scenarios mentioned in section 4. 1, where science and technology are expected to make great contribution
because it contains half of the 36 key areas and two out of the five scenarios that many Delphi topics are linked closely to.
the group of clusters Figure 4 Overall view of scientific and technological areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 13 related to health and medical care on the right side
although it has a small number of the key areas shown in Table I. Other elements that possibly assume a high level of importance come from such areas as fundamental technology (e g.
ICT and infrastructure) and sociological science (e g. lifestyle and management), and it is noteworthy that they are arranged in the central part of the map,
The‘‘Socialization of information''area in the category of‘‘Others''gained an especially high expectation,
as are energy and environment related areas. The area addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society,
and Table I Areas of key importance for the resolution of four challenges ID Key areas Energy,
resources, and environment 01-D Energy-relateda 03-H Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment 05-A Geo-diagnosis technologyb 05-B
adelphi areas with especially strong focus; bdelphi areas with strong focus PAGE 14 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 all the people living in the society benefit from it.
The collaboration of these base technologies including ICT with mainstream innovation will be discussed further in the next section. 5. Common factors for future innovation As stated in section 3,
This section discusses how base technologies in common are expected to become engaged in the two potentialities. 5. 1 Examination from positions of key areas As shown in Table I,
14 key areas are categorized as‘‘Others, ''meaning areas that are related not green or life-related areas.
Figure 5 shows where these areas are positioned in the map of the overall view. Key areas related to ICT utilization and networking,
service management and social innovation are positioned near life-related areas, which indicates that innovative progress will be made in health and medical care through collaboration with ICT and management technology.
On the other hand areas related to infrastructure management and globalization (international competition and cooperation) are positioned near green-related areas,
which shows green innovation has a close relation to the international standpoint. Areas related to space and ocean sciences and materials science are positioned near the center and show no direct relation to the two potentialities of innovation:
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
Figure 5 Relation between directions of future innovation and base technology areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 15 5. 2 Examination of relationship between scenario descriptions
and Delphi topics Of the 12 Delphi panels, the number which each scenario has links to ranges from zero to nine.
Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.
Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.
management and globalization, should be emphasized in connection with the promotion of innovation in these two areas.
This paper is a case study of combining foresight outputs at the last stage to identify the expected areas of future innovation
and position potential areas of future innovation with related areas to be promoted together in the whole picture.
governments provide a foundation and framework for research, set focus areas, and thus ultimately shape the future.
but are embedded rather in specific topics and focus areas within the organizational structure. The relevance of a set of foresight results therefore needs to be explored individually for each research policy making unit.
This is an area that tends to be overlooked when research policy making only focuses on defining new research topics.
2006) have investigated this area for science-based stakeholder dialogues. Their analysis is relevant because the motivation and the challenges of those dialogues tie in with those of transferring foresight results,
PAGE 20 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 B multi-stakeholder dialogues for governance on an international level, for example in the environmental area;
and analyzing areas for future research and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
framing and structuring cannot be achieved in a single well-defined step it is an iterative process throughout the life of the dialogue To involve a wide range of stakeholders in a topic area that is initially rather fuzzy,
a strategic dialogue has succeed to in crystallizing the topic area into a concise definition of scope and goals.
but it is a first cut of describing the wide-ranging and fuzzy topic area provided by foresight results with a tight map that can be used as guide and context for the following steps. 4. 5 Step 5:
and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
For the focus area‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''(Production Consumption 2. 0), the strategic dialogue involved seven organizational units within the BMBF drawn from the full range of BMBF departments concerned with research policy.
To transfer the results of the focus area‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''into activities, a holistic view across a complex landscape of relevant stakeholders, including relevant disciplines as well as players across the value chain is required.
Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and technological developments over a period of ten to 15 years in specific areas
an instrumental expectation that investments will address particular problem areas and boost economic competitiveness. It could be argued that the main narrative of EU Research,
The Lund Declaration emphasises importance of problem solving that the‘‘challenges must turn into sustainable solutions in areas such as global warming,
and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:
the 12-month exercise has had the aim of identifying up to 20 priority areas for the allocation of public funding of research and development over five years.
An action plan was to be developed for each priority area. The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation asked‘‘that the group focus on areas that will yield the best return for taxpayers'investment in research and ultimately
create high quality jobs''3. 3. 3 Project methodology A methodology was designed and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.
and trends were visible and relevant for their thematic areas, the potential impact they might have on The irish national context over the coming ten to 15 years,
The participants in the roundtable discussions were grouped into common areas of interest. Half a day was allocated to each discussion
and modelling work on areas such as health. Table III List of thematic groups, drivers and trends identified Theme Drivers and trends Global governance and political economy Rise of the BRICS Global trade falters The emergence of new
In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
connecting them with niche areas of opportunity and development can be a very difficult task.
dependencies and enabling conditions in areas such as renewable energy. The small country context was an important dimension throughout the exercise
it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
This policy must promote the advanced development of priority technological areas, which would contribute to increasing the growth rate of the economy, environmental safety and the competitiveness of Russian companies,
These areas should be in line with relevant national competitive advantages. Accordingly, the following objectives were set:
B identification of R&d areas that are most important and promising to Russia; B estimation of possible timeframes for major S&t breakthroughs;
There are nine thematic areas at the first level (which correspond to National S&t priorities), 56 technology areas at the second level
The thematic areas include: B Information and Telecommunication systems; B Industry of Nanosystems and Materials; B Living Systems;
The thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''covers the following five technology areas: 1. environmental monitoring and forecasting (atmosphere and hydrosphere;
Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘
B identification of thematic areas; B Delphi topics; B survey methodologies; VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels;
More than 150 experts were recruited to assess development prospects for the Rational Use of Natural resources area.
The characteristics of five major topics for the thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''are given in Table
Russian experts considered the most important topics in this area to be accelerated‘‘Technologies for and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity,
and most promising research areas offering significant innovative potential. This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys
Table I Major topics of the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area No. Topic Importance indexa Expected time of developing S&t solution Possible results (percentage of experts;
two top scores) Technology area 1 Technologies for accelerated and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity 97.6 2019 Contributing to dealing with social problems (76.3
and affected area) 96.1 2014 Contributing to dealing with social problems (73.8 percent) Improving positions on international markets (47 5 percent) Technologies for forecasting the state of the lithosphere
The characteristics of the five most developed topics in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area are given in Table II.
Table II Characteristics of most developed technology groups in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area Technology group Index of R&d levela Cumulative effectb Monitoring and control systems,
Thus, the major development areas relating to the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''field for the period until 2030 were described in the course of the exercise
At the same time, the FS2 results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area could be more effective
‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.
and B environment (i e. air, biodiversity and specially protected nature areas, dangerous natural phenomena, industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage,
but the results of FS2 showed (on the basis of the expert survey) that the Russian management system in the natural resources area needed to be much more effective
B key areas to strengthen positions of Russian producers in global markets on the basis of technological advantages;
the results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area is not now really effective
and this is preventing S&t development Innovation priorities for the Russian management system in the natural resources area, which should create conditions for S&t development
The first of these projects identified major S&t results in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''area,
and the result of the 3rd Foresight activity of South korea has resulted in 21 future technology areas. Also, China has used the result of foresight for selection of their critical technologies.
The IPC, established by the Strasbourg Agreement of 1971, provides for a hierarchical system of language-independent symbols for the classification of patents and utility models according to the different areas of technology to
ocean energy/seawater desalination China Integrated gasification combined cycle 35 (Civil engineering) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large-area thin-film solar cells;
''and‘‘Large-area thin-film solar cells with a conversion efficiency of at least 20 percent''.''Other linkages are source technology 24 (Environmental technology) to application technology 20 (Materials, metallurgy),
In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength with FTA ACTIVITIES being governed by one ministry (BMBF),
or to identify Emerging s&t areas 38. Comparison of outcomes of qualitative and quantitative approaches Participants at the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA raised the potential of the use of qualitative and quantitative methods for identifying
In the scenario development it was possible to identify areas where analytical tools are relatively weak and can be improved.
and other types of grey literature in order to advance knowledge in this area. Future research could take up this endeavour.
The different and highly heterogeneous contributions to the 2011 International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis in this area share a common bottom line:
established by the Strasbourg Agreement 1971, is the most widely used hierarchical classification system of patents based on the different areas of technologies to
Among these new capabilities the TFA Methods Working group has identified recently 1 three main converging areas of development:
Using FTA for planning for action is one area where the handling of uncertainty is crucial.
Moreover, Schiphol is located in a wind prone area, necessitating a runway layout that covers the various wind directions.
Noise Area Equivalent Method (AEM) a model that approximates Integrated Noise Model results 40. Emissions Emission Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) the FAA required tool for emission analysis 41.
The outcomes of this inquiry are presented in Section 4 including also implications for practitioners by elaborating elements of good practices and areas of improvement.
It generates four contrasting scenarios relevant to a particular area of interest, which may be geographic or thematic,
In addition, implications for practitioners are highlighted by elaborating elements of good practice and areas of improvement. 4. 1. Window of opportunity Leveraging the first perspective,
We found that selecting areas for future opportunities are the general theme in the lessons learnt from this group.
Often the focus is very much on elaborating areas of enhanced collaboration technological cooperation and converging technologies.
In addition, including perspectives from the different stakeholders can reveal new areas for innovation 73.4.2.3. Backcasting from principles A third group of practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from principles.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
Also from this‘empowerment'perspective we suggest some areas of improvement. Stakeholder involvement, for instance, may be facilitated by conceptualizing the future as open and dilemmatic,
and defining areas for innovation Weak on complexity of socio-technological systems Evolutionary Interaction Engage in sustainable pathways enabling transformations of innovation systems Allows a systemized negotiation process linking a variety of social actors
the US and Germany started assessing the status and future trends in the area of nanotechnology early on 5,
and disciplines. 3. 2. Germany FTA for addressing the future of existing areas of strength In Germany,
and future market assessment were used to identify the promising areas of the field and to assess the market potentials of future nano-applications.
They focus on the following areas: Nanofab (electronics, nanotechnology for high performance ICT components. Nanoforlife (pharmaceuticals, medical technology nanotechnology for new medical therapies and diagnostics.
The activities were directed strategically to building on existing areas of strength such as in the automotive industry and microelectronics.
Experts'Perceptions and Scientific Relations Between Sub-areas, Brussels Luxembourg, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 1997.22 National science and Technology Council, Nanotechnology, in:
INFU was financed by the European commission in the 7th Framework programme Area Social sciences and Humanities (SSH. It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.
even if they were common in other areas. In addition to a free search, which aimed at finding phenomena that stand out fromestablished innovation patterns,
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.011 authors make the case for taking all four of these areas into account
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