Synopsis: Area:

both the power distance and uncertainty avoidance might affect the use of foresight in at least three areas:

Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.

A Council for Strategic research has been established to contribute to increased co-operation between public and private research within a range of areas of strategic importance for the country.

The council also recommended that the ministry assessed international experiences in this area and refer to foresight programmes in the UK,

The Globalisation Strategy had 14 focus areas. The following are examples:‘‘1. World's top performing primary and lower secondary school'and‘8. More competition and better quality in public sector research'.

'For each of the focus areas, the Globalisation Strategy defined two to four strategic objectives

the aim was to prioritise strategic research in areas of political interest. The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,

thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.

Each roadmap focused on one of five key areas of technology (KATS:(i) sustainable manufacturing, products and services;(

and across, these areas. Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed.

(i) scientific literature and of (ii) the main areas covered by twenty worldwide existing roadmaps and thirteen ongoing research projects.

, A. Paci, R. Fornasiero, M. Chiacchio, F. Rusina`,R. Checcozzo, A. Pirlet, M. Bru lhart, F. Ernst, Action Roadmap on Key Areas 1

The logic behind this theme was to recognise the work already done in closely related areas, such as programme evaluation, futures studies, planning,

Nonetheless, there was a push to extend concepts and theoretical insights from these areas to a larger variety of social sciences and humanities disciplines, such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics

Philips has a strong interest in this area which tries to combine the best of TV with the best of the internet (such as e g.,

a research and consultancy institute in the area of delta technology. 4 WINN was supposed to‘‘engage on a joint search with the country's society, business community and scientific sector for durable and innovative combinations of the use and space and society''.

zur Fo rderung der angewandten Forschung e. V. Fhg), Technische Universita t Berlin (TUB) and Siemens AG (SAG) decided to pool their research and development activities in the area of information

and the external trend that ICT is becoming increasingly important in all business areas provided the foundation for this vision. 4. 2. 2. Process model The activities of the EICT itself can be interpreted as an innovation process model.

At the end of 2009, the first three KICS in the areas of climate change (Climate KIC), energy (KIC Innoenergy) and Information and Communication Technologies (EIT ICT Labs;

and selected by expert teams with regard to the thematic areas of education, research and business. Several collaborative instruments were established to support the identification and selection of activities for the future of the network, e g.,

and the need for further methodology development in this area are highlighted, due to the fact that the project did not lead to direct policy measures.

The project also created a new network of scientific and technological experts in the area of biosecurity,

providing an opportunity for furthhe cooperation in this area. De Moor et al. develop a novel approach for incorpooratin more user-driven innovation strategies in companies'product development processes using‘living lab'research.

and other scanning techniques), covering the area that is to be scanned. A focus on all signals that might have significant impact on the strategic missions

which covers expectations across a wide range of societal areas and provides a broad scan of S&t developments and opportunities.

often originating in areas of activity or parts of the world that are ignored by mainstream media

and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.

The growing adoption of ICT is having a momentous impact on all areas of the economy,

Established FTA approaache tend to struggle with the double challenge of exploring future trajectories of extremely fastchanngin areas like creative content

and also identify priorrit areas for R&d policy-making. The methodoloog developed was based on the adaptive foresight framework

and identifying areas where these will have a significant effect on creative content. We described relevant technologies within our establisshe framework

Figure 3. Actors and key technological areas in the video game sub-sector Source Mateos-Garcia et al.

the workshop was successful in identiffyin problem areas, raising concerns and eliciting different views, which in turn meant that no consenssu on the future of the creative content industries could be achieved.

and are dealt with in different areas of the European commission. Challenges for policy-making The challenge for policy-makers and regulators is to help create an enviroonmen

On certain areas a consensus on their importtanc for the future was easy to reach

and innovation in certain thematic areas was accepted also widely, even if the associated IPRS issues are still controversial.

however, on the need for European research) policy action in these areas, would require looking at expected market and systte failures,

and point to the need for new approaches for exploring the futuur of such fast-changing areas.

and economic factors Identification of solutions to problematic areas. need-driven) Understanding the interaction between technology and the society.

Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;

thus stimulate the development in these areas Better understanding the interaction among technologies and realize gains resulting from this interaction Allocate funding for research

Another difference was in the area of participants. The number of participants engaged in the foresiigh exercises was variable, with no discernable pattern or trend evident.

because they were an important part of validating the advantage of foresight to new clients and new topic areas.

which align with some of the areas where policy will be required,(e g. health technology, agricultural innovation,

and Keenan (2006), research in this area is limited: Pleas from sponsors of FTA ACTIVITIES for better accounts of demonstrable impacts are as old as FTA itself.

Yet, little work has been done in this area, with most accounts of impacts confiine to individual case study descriptions.

biosecurity, and security in general, is also typically related to critical infrastructuure particularly in the area of public health.

Areas suggested include: societal productivity; security from natural and man-made disasters; providing sustenance for an ageing population;

and has held academic posts in Canberra and Melbourne in the S&t policy area since then. A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998.

Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.

A key area of interest for the project is how technoloogie can converge to contribute to the overall capabilities for more effective applications in biosecurrit and EID management in the four designated life cycle domains.

a range of tools to enhance capabiliit in these areas needs to be developed specificaall for the Asia-pacific region,

while networking and technology transfer in certain areas are a viable option. This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies.

Science itself will also be a source of new challenges but also opportunities through its contribution to technologgica change in areas such as:

A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers to identify areas to intervene in by formulating appropriate policy.

which can be tackled through policies that span areas of administrative responsibility. In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve three key questions:

but also the concepts of governance, macro-coordination and develoopmen of vertical communication channels in the governnmen area return to the forefront.

human resources and infrastructure to handle complex thematic debates in several areas of interest, planning for small and very large events such as the last three national S&t conferences organized by the CGEE

since been enmeshed with policies in other areas, reducing the professional autonomy of the scientific community in setting priorities (Ziman 1994).

and by priority-setting clearly geared towards national defenserellate projects in strategically targeted areas, like the hydrogen bomb,

indigenous innovation (zizhu chuangxin), leapfrogging in key areas (zhongdian kuayue), supporting economic and social development (zhicheng fazhan), leading the future (yinling weilai).

So-called mega-engineering and mega-science projects are aimed at‘leapfrogging'in key areas, while key technology programs play the role of supporting economic development,

Support technology transfer to rural areas and promote development of agriculture based on S&t achievements State Key and New Product Program 1988 Support new high-tech products for key industries 9th Five-year Plan National Program

and diffusiio of agricultural technologies 11th Five-Year Plan Mega-science Program 2006 Promote four top scientific areas Mega-engineering Projects 2006 Promote technology

and sometimes overwhelming, mission orientation, often identifying specific areas where radical innovations are sought. The 16 Mega-engineering Projects identified in the last MLP are selected clearly missionorieented to address major economic and societal needs,

However, the selection of areas is guided by their ability to meet national strategic needs (in agriculture

and four priority areas, thus representing an ambition to square‘national needs'with‘science dynamics'.

In some cases they may even be encouraged by the government, letting experts point to problem areas

particularly when it comes to the selection of thematic areas, but also formal processes for input by other stakeholders and, increasingly, public consultation.

Although the drafting of the medium-and long-term plan included structures for stakeholder involvement and transparency, overall, priority-setting in China's research policy tends to be characterized by a top-down selection of both thematic areas and fundamental development strategies.

with greater amounts of probing and experimenttatio in areas that are potentially relevant to grand challenges.

This should be accommodated in selectiin priority areas for research as well as in setting strategic research agendas. Finally, the role of FTA in creating spaces for market formation,

and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,

when defining priority areas of common interest and in setting strategic research agendas among different actors Capacity building role of FTA supports collective learning and knowledge creation Guide direction of search and selection FTA tends to lead to articulation

and prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research Capacity building role of FTA supports diverse expectations to be framed

The first ones were created in the areas of climate change, energy and informmatio and communications technologies. In 2011, the JRC-IPTS supported the European Institute of technology to identify potential priority areas for new KICS from 2013.

The proposals are based on a web 2. 0 consultation of the research communities in Europe and beyond,

2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.

What areas and types of transformations will require anticipatory action? And what kinds of requirements for FTA result from these?.

The distinction between disrupptiv and recognised grand challenges referred to in the European Science Foundation report (European Science Foundation 2010) highlights the fact that areas of disruptiiv grand challenges can be exogenous

Recognised grand challenge areas are‘grand'in the sense that they are instantly recognisable as representing a major aspect of human

Local, regional and national FTA networks, cutting across different policy areas, can support an appropriate level of policy coordination to anticipate

The creation of UNESCO meant that there was now an organisation with a specific remit to link with governments in the international science area.

In the area of climate change the International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) was established also by the WMO

has led also to a new global approach to research in many areas. Truly global science is an evolving

it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.

This exercise reinforced the continued importance of ICSU's historical areas of interest, mainly focused around the environment,

It also highligghte a number of areas, such as cognitive neuroscience and nanoscience, in which the role of ICSU was less obvious

These areas were considdere to still be valid in 2009 and are being carried mostly over into the new strategic plan (2012 7). Therefore,

How this will evolve in areas such as the relationship between knowledge-based and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.

Even within cultures the way science will go about handling ethical issues and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.

Science education and skills: The traditional path of science education could be challenged by the role of new organisations, business and communication technologies.

The career path for young researchers is another area where a number of options could develop

to rapidly assess new areas of scientific advance that have implications for the benefit of society.

and deem investments in this area to be unnecessary. The third driver is emission trading, which is currently starting to have an effect on companies.

Development and Deployment co-operation (including currency issues) Lack of networks/no European structures to coordinate co-operation in programme area Geographic distance Policy to achieve national priorities through internal capacity

in order to broaden the knowledge base in three areas: urban megatrends, urban networks and connectiivity and the socio-ecological sustainability of city systems.

and Urban Europe and ensuring a long-term integration of stakeholders in activities Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 199 increasing research capacity in a specific thematic area can also contribute to better understanding and aligning research systems.

Horizontal coordinnatio can be enhanced by foresight by encouraging the sharing of research interests among research teams in different areas and disciplines.

Alternatively, multidiscipplinar stakeholder groups can be formed to work together towards common research agendas in different sub-areas,

foresiigh seems to hold the promise of facilitating the implementtatio of different functions of transnational research programming way beyond the identification of emerging issues, priority areas and relevant stakeholders.

Decomposition was facilitated by the framework for research sub-areas and by treating research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could assess with an internet-based decision support tool.

consisting of four research areas and 23 sub-areas. Stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process. 4. 1. 3 Flexible and responsive management to accommoodat with stakeholder expectations.

34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little

It has potential to also identify additional research areas and is linked directly to the Management Board. 32.

if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches

The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,

The raw material may be different observations about topics such as scientiifi and technological developments within various areas, and may be obtained from research papers, laboratory results, dissemination about new theories, experiments, prototypes etc.

and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).

Step 1 Selection of the broader area where emerging issues will be examined. Step 2 Clustering of weak signals.

The results of the scanning can also be a starting point for taking into account the areas of unknown unknowns by spotting gaps in the scan picture

and by linking unconneccte areas. That is about raising the awareness of non-knowledge (areas beyond

what we know we do not know). Taking into account the plurality of perspectives on non-knowledge can serve as a basis on

Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at

T. Ko nno la et al. addressed with systemic policies that span several areas of administrative responsibility.

and policy implications. 3. 1 Identification of Issues BEPA and JRC-IPTS initiated the analysis in six broad areas following the structure of previous work that had been delivered to BEPA by other EC services.

JRC-IPTS and BEPA refined these areas through close interaction to accommodate a more comprehensive analysis across all economic sectors and responsibilities of BEPA.

The final six areas analysed were:.demography, migration and health. economy, trade and financial flows. environment, energy, climate change and agriculture. research, innovation and (e)- education.

e)- governance and (e)- social cohesion. defence and security It was agreed then that in each area JRC-IPTS experts would analyse about 20 25 forward-looking reports which had been published recently by international organizations or the business sector;

covered more than one of six areas being analysed; exhibited global scope; and had been Figure 1. Timeline

and wild cards as well as related policy recommendatioons These reviews resulted in the jointly authored area descriptions and the identification of 370 codified and traceable issues.

nongovernmental organizzation and business representatives from all the thematic areas that were represented. Specifically, these experts were requested to generate additional issues

issues in a given area (there were 42 90 issues in the areas. 3. 3. 1 Mean-oriented analysis. Mean-oriented analysis helped identify issues that were considered relevant, novel and probable by the majority respondents,

plus 19 experts from around the world who represented the six thematic areas, including foresight practitioners. All particiipant were requested to prepare for the workshop by familiarizing themselves with the earlier results

For an example, see Table 1 which shows seven issues out of 42 in the area of defence and security.

and the challenges were required to contain issues from at least two of the six areas that were analysed.

Table 2 provides an example of such a crosscutting challenge that synthesizes issues from different thematic areas.

made it possible to group Table 1. Core/borderline status of selected issues in area of defence

They also said that they received useful feedback from participants represenntin different policy areas because this helped them to see challenges from alternative viewpoints

and from different thematic areas (demography, environnment and defence and security; font styles of issue codes refer to results obtained in different RPM analyses(<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/survey issues. pdf,

>accessed 16 september 2011) Area No. Issue code Key words from issue description (optional) Save natural resources (water,

or 44%,of the world's population lives in areas of high water stress. There is a risk of global water bankruptcy due to humanity's consistent underpricing of water and its consequent waste and overuse.

'which combined issues from at least two areas in the case study) may have to be described at a more abstract

they may have policy implications in several areas of administrative responsibility. But if the policy-makers in these areas are autonomous,

or represent different‘administrative silos, 'it may be difficult to shape broad policies that they would be committed fully to,

2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference

and show impacts in all areas of the lives of human beings. But in these and many other cases (Popcorn 1993,1999) of megatrend discussions, the definition of the megatrends was explained not

Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.

and strategic areas of excellence is the identification of specific strategic future topics at the corporate level,

The idea was to define pragmatic areas in order to foster this cooperation. Global or grand challenges were regarded

VTT distributes basic funding to their different areas in order to support crossknowwledg cluster projects. For strategic directions, VTT defines some broad themes of research,

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