the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon
International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands.
A Study of Stakeholder participation in an Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policy in The netherlands, LEMMA Publishers, Utrecht, 2004.15 P. A. van der Duin, Qualitative Futures research for Innovation, Eburon
and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials and methodological challenges to be addressed.
and of Public policy at Georgia Tech, where he co-directs the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
He focuses on text mining for technology intelligence, forecasting and assessment. Michael Rader, Dr. Phil, Sociologist: studied sociology, psychology, political science and economics.
Involved in the management of the European Technology assessment Group providing scientific services for the European parliament's Scientific Technological Options Assessment (STOA) panel, the technology assessment unit of the European parliament.
, for concept testing, preparing for market introduction, assessment of adoption potential. Secondly, this study was part of a larger research project
The Global Business Network (GBN) method enables an assessment of the resources and competencies needed in relation to the trends that ought to mould the future of the business.
-based assessment of the external environment 60 SWOT analysis 26 There is a lack of any system to define measures linked to consistent targets 58,59 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 SWOT analysis
An Appraisal and Agenda for Future research, Handbook of Strategic management, Blackwell Business, Malden, Massachusetts, 2001, pp. 602 626.12 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Building a Strategy-Focused
Eventually, the assessment of the outcome (network performance versus original expectations) will determine the partners'future commitment.
In contrast, strategic guidance, the assessment and repositioning of the innovation portfolio and vision creation are limited mostly to the network itself.
An Integrated Framework of Cyclic Networks for the Assessment of Technological change and Sustainable growth, Delft University Press, Delft, 2000.48 G. Berkhout, The Cyclic Nature of Innovation.
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
we completed our understanndin with an assessment of the European positiio both in qualitative and quantitative terms, based on the analysis of company documents, business and policy reports.
in order to review the results and change their assessment as necessary (Friedewald et al, 2007). In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
and further specification of our initial list of issues relevaan to the assessment of the impact of future sociotecchnoeconomic trends on the sustainability of the creative content sector.
Recent developments regarding digital content copyrights will further influence the assessment of this issue. Another important example concerns content quality and,
and which factors were instrumental in their assessment of those organizations. About 15 experts from ten countries and five internaationa organizations responded.
An assessment of this qualitative data was coupled with more quantitatiiv data (budgets, number of employees etc.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment: i e. assessing technology options in a transparent manner;
and what factors were instrummenta in this assessment of those organizations. About 15 experts from ten countries and five internatiiona organizations responded.
What, in your opinion, are some of the most successsfu assessments of recent foresight exercises? What tools/metrics/parameters work best to measure impacts?
An assessment of this qualitative data was coupled with more quantitative data (budgets, number of employees etc. to identify similarities
The agencies investigated all made use of key stakehollder in processes such as project selection, informmatio gathering and assessment,
the authors'assessment may have underestimated the longer term impacts of the activity of the nascent Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA),
or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time. If this Table 6:
only two out of eight factors were clearly evident 2008 Assessment: generally a failure (because) according to the two critical criteria:
The authors endorse the need for further assessments of foresight impact, survival and the dynamics of managing regime transitions that remain a continuing challenge to foresight advocates
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
New Technollog Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. World health organization 2006.
electromaagneti field exposure assessment, propagation for wireless communication systems, antennas and calibration. In particular, he specializes in wireless performance analyssi and Qoe.
A user-oriented assessment of (future) wireless applicattion in cities was conducted. Six IBBT research groups collaborated on this project and
and included an assessment of possible strategies for service innovation. In this paper, we only focus on user
i e. estimations of the impact of policy, proceed by means of an ex post assessment of the activities of the firms that have received subsidies.
All overviews emphasize the importance of the control variables included in any empirical assessment and the level of aggregation at
Thus, for the assessment of a study, it is necessary to take these two factors into consideration.
which comprises technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, technollog assessment, and foresight. In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
Zhang et al. 2009) or assessment of the state of its STI capabilities (D'Costa and Parayil 2009;
Schwaag Serger, S. and Breidne, M. 2007)‘ China's 15-year plan for scientific and technological development a critical assessment, Asia Policy, 4: 135 64.
so any comprehensive assessment of their use and application of fta would be premature. However, their scope and focus acknowledge the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges.
such as the Scientific Technology Options Assessment Unit of the European parliament, build on long-term service contracts with external public and private research organisations or consulting firms).
In addition, a periodic assessment of these scenarrio would be necessary to update and adapt these in view of the latest world developments.
There is a need Coping with a fast-changing world. 163 to invest in iterative processes of assessment
and the UN Environment Programme in 1987 to carry out integrated assessments of scientific evidence. It has engaged over 3,
000 scientists and has produced four assessment reports since then. Another example of modern international research collaboration is the Human Genome Project (HGP),
Furthermore, ICSU's research initiatives have been designed explicitly to feed into global assessment structures, e g. IPCC, and where such assessment structures have not existed,
ICSU has advocated for them. ICSU has developed also a‘think tank'role, working with its members and other organisations,
policies could be deployed to provide validation and feasibility assessment, and to create demonstration and piloting environments.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
Assessment and certification services; Low-energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. heating, air conditioning; Separate solutions for design, building, and operation;
assessment and certification services, low-energy concepts and distributed building services systems (e g. heating and air conditioning.
and secondly, to provide an assessment of this nexus in the context of VTT's strategy.
Basic life-cycle assessment (LCA) software is used already in industrial production. In the medium term there will be different types of services that utilize data from ICT embedded in our everyday environment.
close co-operation with China on foresight) Horizontal co-ordination Cross-feeding of research teams was encouraged by assessment of submitted issues
The assessment criteria for researcher's were: novelty, tentative researcher's interest and description how the researcher would like to contribute to future projects on the issue.
2011)‘ Report for EC assessment',Urban Europe Joint Programming Initiative.<<http://www. era. gv. at/attach/Urban-Report ecassessment 201104 final. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012.
Preliminary assessment and selection: The selection of key signals from the vast amount of data coming from the various sources is done by experts.
This assessment refers to the potential underlying emerging issue and not to the individual signal.
the assessment of discussions can be an interesttin way in which to collect signals. Conferences may also be particularly interesting for making contact with future-oriented experts as well as policy-makers in the relevant domains.
This can enable faster and timelier assessments and thus earlier detection of events, changes and possible weak signals.
A first assessment of the tools used in the scanning process in the SESTI project is given in Table 2. 3. 3 Policy workshops
It also helps in the assessment of developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown, but plausible, new emerging issues.
Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics
In this regard, it is importaan to improve the credibility of the assessment for example by establishing interdisciplinary discussion groups to validate it.
by definition, lie beyond current horizons, there is often only scarce and scattered evidence to support the collection of signals and the assessment of their significance.
This suggests that horizon scanning can benefit from methods that provide explicit support for the synthesis of relevant combinations (e g. by using multi-criteria models in the assessment of issues
Brummer et al. 2008,2011) would be conducted to engage a wider community of experts in the assessment of key findings from these reports towards the identification of most pertinnen issues.
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
the expert assessments were synthesized with the RPM tool (Liesio et al. 2007; Ko nno la et al. 2007.
whereby the criterion-specific scores v j i were obtained by taking the means of the respondents'assessments.
the scores v j i were defined by the variances of the responddents criterion-specific assessments.
The variance of assessment of novelty was regarded as the most imporrtan criterion, followed by variances of relevance and probability,
i e. v j 3=8, being the average of the probability assessments. Furthermore, this criterion was assigned the highest weight so that w1>w2>w3.
In addition to the numerical statistics of the assessments, participants were provided with information about the core issues
Figure 3. Assessment of grand challenges according to a set of Fraunhofer criteria. Fraunhofer future markets. 239 Figure 5. Example of assessment for subchallenges and technological approaches.
Figure 6. Overview of entire process. 240. K. Cuhls et al. for Fraunhofer or should be tackled with Fraunhofer projects..
References Blind, K.,Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology:
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