as well as a perspective on future challennge and key areas for action that had been developed in the context of a participatory process.
2) Policy strategic counselling by merging the insights generated in the context of policy informiin foresight activities with perspectives on the strategic positioning
These conditions, together with the pronounced consensus-orientation in policy making, provide the governance context in which the foresight
and his engagement must be seen as decisive for realising a participatoor process in a context that had been characterised until then by strong departmentalisation of policy making.
This second argument must be seen in the context of a then recent initiative to strengthen cooperation with the twin city of Bratislava,
In this context, Vienna's network-based location of research and innovation will be strengthened further. 4. 4. Implementation the schedule for 2008 and beyond Based on the objectives,
and it is the firm intention to maintain the momentum of the participatory process by consolidating some of the communication channels that had been established in the context of the strategy process. 5. Impacts of the process
In terms of its informing function, it certainly contributed to giving research and innovation more prominence and visibility in the context of urban policy.
In particular in the context of panel meetings and inter-panel meeting, it was necessary to explain
This applies, for instance, to initiatives to be taken in the context of the wider CENTROPE area
or whether it will turn into a more regular process of strategy development and update, based on a monitoring of actions and context.
'and the scenarios that had been developed in that context. The results of the programme were simply just about to become available
and Weber (2006) and in particular the work on self-evaluation tools for foresight in the context of the Forsociety ERA NET (Forsociety 2007).
Visioning in the context of foresight How should visioning be understood in the context of foresight practises?
for example in the context of regional, national and transnational development programmes. Visioning as an activity,
'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context. As pointed out by Shipley et al.
There is apparently a need for further investigation into the concrete practises of visioning, especially in the context of local long-term planning,
They have studied foresight in the context of organisational identittie and the ways individuals fulfil identities
In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,
but signals a recognition that the consideraatio of counterfactual possibilities is intrinsic to reflexivity in the context of risk assessment and evaluation'.
At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.
As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in
‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,
We also describe the policy context and methodological support of Finnsight: specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and
group decision support 1. Introduction As an instrument of strategic policy intelligence (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), foresight must often serve multiple objectives that are shaped by its policy context.
In our analysis, we discuss the policy context, management structure, methodological execution and key results of Finnsight.
Section 2 outlines the policy context of Finnsight. Section 3 describes the methodological design, execution and main results of Finnsight and reports subsequent policy developments in the R&i system.
and Section 5 concludes. 2. Finnsight in context In comparison with many other countries, Finland has had an active and varied foresight scene,
and the Finnish funding agency for technology and Innovation3 (Tekes) to deepen their collaboration in the context of funding activities and other R&i instruments,
to (1) major changes in the global context,(2) growing needs in Finnish industry and society, or (3) anticipated scientific and technological achievements.
members was motivated partly by the tight schedule that was implied largely by the broader policy context.
In view of positive experiences, we believe that analogous approaches may be useful also in other contexts where expert panels are required to generate coherent and comprehensive foresight results in the presence of tight timeframes and high expectations.
as Linstone argued in the context of considering long waves, ‘‘Technology will play as significant a role in the 21st century as it did in the 20th''4. From the conceptual ground of the paper,
Both context and objectives are taken into account in improving strategic processes of priority-setting, networking and visionbuillding not across the broad front of technological options but within specific sectors.
and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives.
, academic debate and mutual learning among both academics and practitioners within project contexts such as Forlearn, 6 Costa22, 7 Forsociety8 and intense exchange with other approaches such as futures studies
evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
Foresight practitioners do now deploy hybrid methodological frameworks where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to each specific purpose and context.
it seems that Foresight has been evolving from a loose collection of approaches to a complex integrated framework with a number of levers for adaptation to specific purposes and contexts and gradually,
The main context variables taken into account for Tailoring Foresight are focus, objectives and policy functions on the one hand and nature of decision making structure and their relation to the Foresight process on the other. 2. 2. Why more tailoring?
The co-evolution trajectories are determined partly by characteristics of National innovation systems such as regulation and cultural context 10.
and institutional context using the notion of socio-technical regimes (12,13, building inter alia on 14,15). In all these approaches to characterising innovation regimes the knowledge base plays a crucial role.‘‘
Each one of these three arenas functions in the context of a specific institutional arrangement.
At European level, strategic policy orientation takes place, firstly in the context of the process of elaboration of the EU research budget, mainly the framework programme,
but did not substitute the actors of this latter arena. 3. 2. Foresight objectives in the context of the three governance arenas We choose to focus our analysis on Foresight in connection with policy
Foresight Table 1 Elements characterising the three arenas of governance for R&i in the EU context.
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
firstly, exploration of multiple GM futures in the broader context of agricultural system and secondly, localisation and diversification of the GM research agenda.
and evaluate them in the context of the company's strategy, competencies, and mission. 2. The promise The organizations that survive today's marketplace turbulence will be those that can adapt rapidly to change.
so that bexecutives have a strong grasp of the strategic context they operate in before the unpredictable
The early Japanese Delphi exercises were applied mainly in this context and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform
A gradual awareness and general agreement for moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches is giving foresight an enhanced role in policy design tailored to particular context
The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood. An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&i system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies.
The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood. In the corporate world, the rise of open innovation has emphasised the need for firms to work with their collaborators
Normally it is encountered in the context of resource allocation, the resources in question being those of finance, time, infrastructure etc.
In this context, embedded foresight activities promote the development of internal collaboration. Cariola and Rolfo link this to an evolution from hierarchical organisational structures with tangible assets to network knowledge-based organisational forms as a backdrop to the formulation of innovation policy 36.
but often conflicting transnational, supranational, national and regional contexts. In Europe where efforts have focused on increasing the public and private spend on R&d and Innovation, the extent of policy measures,
Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
Informative Identification of cross-dimensional analysis of the future context of defence in the next 30 years.
we elaborate and attest its validity in the context of ex post analysis of a number of foresight projects focusing on sustainability, security and information society and their contribution to policy-making.
In an FTA context, it is worth noting that an early proponent of this view was Olaf Stapledon,
Tools that have been developed in such contexts for horizon scanning trend extrapolation, stakeholder mapping, eliciting expert opinion, and so on are among the panoply of FTA METHODS.
The tools and approaches have been created in very diverse contexts and by different communities; they feature different philosophies.
Most of us will have limited a grasp of the contexts from which specific tools derive, and the assumptions that may be carried along with standard practice.
An important point stressed in this context is the vital role that third parties can play in interpretation
and how they are integrated into designs for a new context. Scenario development is used commonly here, along with formal modelling of one sort or another,
This also enables them to internalise this knowledge through interpretations in specific contexts. This is highly reminiscent of
a more practical distinction in the context of FTA would perhaps be the distinction between knowing individuals
to understanding and guiding the shared knowledge creation of key actors (industry, academia and policymakers) in the context of Nordic foresight activities 21,22.
as the posits are put into the context of specific stakeholders'circumstances, and in turn used for formulating explicit priorities, recommendations and decisions.
in order to illustrate the relevance of thekmapproach even in the context of individual/specific FTA METHODS. 6. Scenario workshops as knowledge processes Scenario workshops typically feature a sequence of activities.
which will often begin with a series of brief presentations on the topic under consideration and the wider context in
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
The current paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of a better understanding of issues that ought to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY
All of the above needs to be seen in the context of a slow running rearrangement of the world's chessboard of power that is now reaching a peak in an eastward shift:
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
The foregoing review is intended only to place FTA ACTIVITY in context. It is as well to remember Wittgenstein's claim that‘methods pass the problem situation by.'
1. Participation by both men and women through freedom of association and expression on the one hand and an organised civil society on the other hand. 2. Consensus oriented resulting from an understanding of the historical, cultural and social contexts of a given society and community.
In this context, sovereign wealth funds have gained worldwide exposure by investing in several Wall street financial firms including Citigroup, Morgan stanley,
which integrates value chain social impacts and investments in competitive context; it is developed the means by a firm to build a proper dialogue with stakeholders
and socially embedded process that cannot be understood without taking into consideration its institutional and cultural context.
) In this entire context, standardisation in regulation is one of the fundamental concepts of governance.
Generic social impacts Value chain social impacts Social dimensions of competitive context Good citizenship Mitigate harm from value chain activities Strategic philanthropy5 that leverages capabilities
to improve salient areas of competitive context Responsive CSR6 Transform value-chain activities to benefit society
or context-focused philanthropy 35,36, is the use of philanthropy to enhance context bringing thus social and economic goals into alignment and improving a firm's long-term business prospect. 6 Responsive CSR comprises two elements 29:
In this context, corporations have used FTA to detect and prepare responses to challenges which have arisen due to:
and other stakeholders taking into consideration social impacts and social dimensions of its value chain in a competitive context as well as its relationships with employees, customers, governments and society at large.
Few companies have engaged operating management in processes that identify and prioritise social issues, based on their salience to business operations and their importance to the company's competitive context 29.
and often in more or less the same contexts insofar as they create broad parameters for shifts in attitudes,
In this context, the definition for drivers of change was decided to focus on things that are accessible and directly impacting one's influence environment.
as long as they are evaluated in the context of both their emergence and their evolution as a part of a pattern along with other weak signals.
or situations that could become positive in a new context; For the most part, the drivers in particular suggest an adequate number of critical uncertainties
and the context in which it operates. For some, the events have been moved so complex so fast,
''In this context, there is wide agreement that the two years since the 2006 International Seville FTA Conference had seen significant development in FTA capacity across many countries and regions:‘‘
The context is favourable. Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
and to shape the social context. Originality/value This Special issue brings together papers that explore not only the opportunities
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
and to shape the social context. Thus, the following articles explore not only the opportunities and limitations of DOI 10.1108/14636681211256062 VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 279-281, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
Design/methodology/approach A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see www. optic. toi. no) reveals that differentiating between different types of uncertainty is possible.
A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see DLR and KIT,
Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,
Typically, they are used to screen the possible options and/or effects in a broader context.
Another issue in the context of the S21 planning is a good example for a known unknown.
they seek for the integration of knowledge of different quality and character, for example in highly interdisciplinary contexts.
) The structurally open/structurally closed approach (see chapter 3) could be discussed within this context but further elaboration would go beyond the scope of this paper.
Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context, since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.
experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature.
especially in a political context, is understandable. However, it somewhat undermines the very thing one is trying to achieve by futures research methods
A threeleeve framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society.
In this context, urban planners had a hard time undertaking forecasts, since structural changes were making traditional paradigms obsolete.
and contingency planning as a way to navigate in a very uncertain context. In recent years, the pre-eminence of collaborative planning has added to the detriment of futures studies.
In this context urban planning has become more of an action-oriented process with short and medium-term horizons.
When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
cultural and socioeconomic contexts, there is a standard process which exemplifies the procedures followed in most countries
In this context many traditional analytical tools will be of no help to urban planners, so they will be forced to develop new methods
Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).
A brief explanation is provided below about the socioeconomic context in which each future scenario may develop.
This context clearly benefits the Spanish productive system because it incorporates a sustainable integrated economy into the global markets.
Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.
In this context, the planning value chain is fragmented very much and sectorialised because stakeholders'interests prevail over the basic sustainability criteria.
In this context frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
In this context the planning value chain is integrated highly, linking the different lines of sectoral planning under a comprehensive approach.
Suggested strategies for Scenario A. The green paradigm scenario offers a favourable context to successfully tackle the major challenges such as fighting climate change
In this context, there is a need for strict policies and measures to prevent or minimize the generation of heavy environmental impact:
B Satisfy social needs in a context where individualism and intolerance prevails. B Prevent spatial segmentation of ethnic groups into residential enclosures.
B Build a social fortress based on family networks and Third Sector organizations to survive in a tough economic context.
since the methodological approach has to be tested further in a wide variety of urban contexts, some tentative conclusions can be drawn from the evidence
In the wide spectrum of sectors, areas, disciplines and contexts to which FTA has been applied and developed,
Law has been-strangely enough left out 5. In this context, I would add Law to the list of social science disciplines through
one could say that FTA has already been applied to the legal context. This application, however
2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.
and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.
In this context, and contrary to mainstream academic though and methodology, I argue in favour of speculative (and disruptive) thought applied to legal research and teaching,
In this context, one should remember the futurist Herman Kahn's words when addressing the question of why we should speculate far ahead.
In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,
and in the legal context, the production of scenarios is extremely useful for dealing with the inexorable uncertainty of the Future 18.
In this context, the incorporation of FTA METHODS and tools to lawmaking activities accompanies the growing interest in Regulatory Impact assessment (RIA) by European policy makers.
Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary
Rather than the nanomaterials themselves, their use in new products and processes and their application in existing or new contexts,
a discussion of these consequences in the context of nanotechnology often refused. Such an argumentative asymmetry for many observers leaves the impression of dishonesty or disguise
The following section then further elaborates the idea of ontological unpredictability in the context of innovation theory,
Knight maintained that most business decisions are made in unique contexts that make statistical inference impossible and
Ontological unpredictability The nature of ontological unpredictability can most conveniently be understood in the context of innovation theory.
Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
Innovations become real in the context of use, and this requires stocks of knowledge and systems of meaning that are located in communities of users and social practice.
the higher levels provide the context for lower level meaning. At the level of goal-oriented acts, progress may be defined as successful problem-solving,
evaluated in the context of a specific social activity. At the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 742
Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
Ontological Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 745 Figure 2. Modelling in the context of the phenomenological veil. unpredictability,
On a theoretical level, the lack of predefined ontological blueprints means that weak signals cannot in any straightforwaar way be interpreted in a realist context,
In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?
Its purpose now is to set technology in the context of socioeconomic matters, ecology, politics and human values/norms of the STEEPV set.
in framing the context of any FTA. Questioning quantitative data to understand its genesis needs to occupy a prime place in FTA.
a priori, about the goals and the socio-technical structure of the situation logical positivist/empiricist assumes that a situation can be isolated from the context in
this is the basis for most survey research interpretive perspective includes the context of the phenomenon as part of the object of study.
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
suggests methodological approaches that assist in capturing the essence of systems and their contexts; improves practices with conceptual modelling;
In its context, FTA helps to develop hypotheses as to how present situations may evolve into the future,
In this example, it is the content of the methodology that is important and not its context
and managed in its perceived context bounded by the fuzzy boundary between what can be known
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
In this context, some scepticism arose in the academic community regarding the reliability of foresight efforts and their soundness and appropriateness for supporting strategic decision-making (Bradley Mackay and Costanzo 2009;
In such a context, BASF's strategic foresight approach to investigating the evolution impact, and response options to macro drivers of change (i e. for coping with state, effect,
that is, the context of our case firms Philips and Siemens, throughout the 2000s were rather dynamic.
In such a context, strategic foresight efforts at Philips aimed essentially at detecting new trends in society, technologies,
In this context Philips Design and Philips Research have developed jointly the‘Ambient Intelligence'vision, which means an‘intelligent home environment'that utilises a wide range of interconnected
In this context, traditional techniques such as‘top-down'scenarios (e g. deductive scenarios starting with two key dimensions:
In this context, the key decisions themselves to be tackled by the organisation for future growth were not clear.
Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts.
in this context, is decoded in financial returns to shareholders based on operation efficiency and/or customers'and/or suppliers'/deliverers'engagement, with the ultimate goal of satisfying customers'needs.
In this context, Section 2 outlines that current models responsible for moulding a business's competitive advantage sustainably are weak in the nature of stakeholders'involvement in strategic partnerships.
and how these are translated into activities able to shape specific actions according to its context in individual,
shaped by a firm's individual context and culture, will offer different and clear possibilities to implement the organisation's (network) vision of sustainable development.
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
In this context and according to Hock (1999), enterprises must be able to combine, with harmony, order and chaos, competition and cooperation,
In this context, trust in each other and in one's own emotions (Fell and Russell 1994;
according to the network's value activities (Figure 1). In this context, it is worth highlighting Appendix 5,
which puts the proposed managemeen framework into context. The latter shows some of the management tools currently in use and places the management framework at the top of the figure for comparison.
In this context, the kind of dialogue required across a business network demands the inclusiiv participation of governments and overall societies,
The Nordic case of partnerships in an international context. In Corporate values and responsibillit the case of Denmark, ed. M. Morsing and C. Thyssen, 1st ed.,192 8. Denmark:
and in diverse specific languages becomes critical in this context Competencies There is a latent importance of building an organisational culture that stimulates knowledge generation
and D. Loveridge Appendix 5. Management framework in context Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014
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