-and longteer time horizons. Diagnosis of infectious diseases is done usually by detecting causative agents (virus, bacterium, etc.
and the intended time horizon. The proposal is being considered by the Rockefeller Foundation for funding,
This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..
Longer-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas and business planning practices.
These shortcomings are recognised well in Horizon 2020 and certain new initiatives have been proposed to overcome them.
The new instruments also acknowledge the importance of long-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas
In recent years, institutional responses have included the setting up of horizonscanning centres and similar anticipattor structures (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
The rationales, time horizons and capabilities of the clients and users determine to a large extent what types of results are taken up or not.
This is reflected in the setting up of dedicated horizonscanning centres (cf. Amanatidou et al. 2012) in the UK, Netherlands and Singapore at national or regional levels, aimed at identifyiin not only major long-term trends and drivers,
In order to realize this function, horizonscanning centres or units at national, regional and international level are emerging.
as reflected, for instance, in the creation of new dedicated horizonscanning centres, the strengthening of parliamentary technology assessment offices and the establishment of dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.
Van Rij, V. 2010)‘ Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge',Science and Public policy, 37:7 18.
Longer-term perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges
Time horizon: The time horizon of the foresight exercise had to be beyond ICSU's usual planning horizons of 5 10 years.
The question was by how much longer. Many of the grand challenges that ICSU activities are focused upon,
the exercise settled for a 20-year time horizon, which happens to coincide with the centenary of the founding of ICSU in 1931.
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
2010) Envisioning Future research Horizons: Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
Foresights with a time horizon of 2050 and beyond are planned therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and can compare this with current programmes and their time horizons. Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.
industrial relevance, possible time horizon for industrial use and need for collaboration at EU level. 27.
'Recent horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark show us many examples of smaller and larger potential emerging issues.
Policy-makers may face barriers to taking the results of horizon scans on board as they may be contradicted by vested interests.
On the other hand, horizon scans in The netherlands and UK had spotted already the financial crisis two years before it started.
Notes 1. See<http://www. bis. gov. uk/foresight/our-work/horizonscanning-centre>accessed 21 december 2011.2.
2010)‘ A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25:1 7. Sutherland, W. J.,Fleishman, E.,Mascia, B.,Pretty
Van Rij, V. 2010a)‘ Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge',Science and Public policy, 37:7 18..(
by definition, lie beyond current horizons, there is often only scarce and scattered evidence to support the collection of signals and the assessment of their significance.
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
To sum up, we have illustrated that horizonscanning activities need not be limited to the collection of future-oriented observations.
Notes 1. See<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk>accessed 26 september 2011. See also Schultz (2006. 2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference
Blackburn, S.,Cudd, P. and Hawley, M. 2010)‘ A horizon scanning system for identifying new telehealth innovations',Global Telemedicine and ehealth Updates:
2011)‘ Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26:10 6. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:
'Horizon 2020: The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, COM (2011) 808 final. Brussels: European commission. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2009)‘ 2009 State of the Future;
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