Exclusive Intensive stakeholder engagement in core group Extensive Cooperative idea and concept creation among stakeholders from different Nordic organisations and firms;
These were coming from different government departments, private companies, and research organisations. Exclusive Only invited participants. Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
The latter, for instance, extend well beyond the‘‘usual suspects''of R&d-performing firms and public bodies,
The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1995.20 R. Dawson, Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, Butterworth-Heinemann, London, 2000.21 A. Eerola, B. H
CSR is believed to deliver the greatest benefits to a company and its stakeholders when integrated with business strategy and operations 26.
firms have a duty to be good citizens and‘do the right thing'that involves balancing competing values, interests and costs.
or the trade-offs nor does the enthusiasm of a stakeholder group necessarily signify the importance of an issue either to the company or to the world.
justification of CSR initiatives on the grounds that they will improve a company's image,
Each creates a generic rationale that is not tied to the strategy and operations of any specific company or the places in
Consequently, none of them is sufficient to help a company to identify, prioritise and address the social issues that matter most or the ones on which it can make the biggest impact. 5. 1. Research on corporate social responsibility The business case for CSR can be divided into theoretical and empirical categories 30
or descriptive that are intended to examine how firms and managers approach the business case for CSR in practice.
company and plant specific factors that are difficult to detect through analytical approaches. The issue of the causal sequence between financial and social environmental performance remains unresolved.
Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
It is difficult for companies to build reasons for CSR with its apparent limited relevance to social and environmental risks and opportunities to a firms'core business.
and improve a company's reputation, employment recruitment and retention 33. The reality is that,
depending on the degree towhich regulation forces companies to internalise externalities, environmental andsocial issues can becomeeconomically relevant for companies.
CSRGOES beyondcompliancewiththe lawandobviouslynot all externalities are internalised. For this reason stakeholders put firms'under additional pressure to internalise more of the social and environmental externalities that they create.
what is good for a company and what is good for society as a whole. One of the assumptions behind CSR is that business outcomes
Traditional regulatory models would impose mandatory rules on a company to ensure that it behaves in a socially responsible manner.
In this context, sovereign wealth funds have gained worldwide exposure by investing in several Wall street financial firms including Citigroup, Morgan stanley,
Nevertheless, the number of voluntary standards has risen in the last decades and put companies in difficult situations in abiding by their principles.
Inside-out linkages are those that a company impinges upon society through its operations which are dependent on location.
CSR also unlocks shared value by investing in social aspects that strengthen a company's competitiveness.
the greater the opportunity to leverage the company's resources and capabilities, and benefit society.
Each company can identify the particular set of societal problems that it is equipped best to help resolve and from
to offer a framework to help companies build an internal capacity to embed the values
and FTSE was established as an independent company in 1995 http://www. ftse. com/about ftse/About ftse. jsp.
or at least to understand the strategic decisions of a company so that the eight criteria of good governance are met:
Firms will need to focus on themes like creativity, breakthrough innovation, entrepreneurial solutions to great challenges, like pandemics and climate change,
and at the same time contribute to firms, and public decision making. But what would then be the role of government
Companies and other organisations create value in multiple dimensions. In business this is summarised as the triple bottom line or the creation of shared value through reconciling economic
Nevertheless, it is the responsibility of a company's board to take forward such an approach in a strategic way
The short-term performance pressures companies face rule out indiscriminate investments in social value creation. It suggests,
Value chain and competitive investments in CSR need to be incorporated into firms'performance measures and reporting.
and methods may help companies to evaluate CSR and, most importantly, the social impacts of all firm unit's activities in each location where it operates.
however, is to understand how FTA can support companies in anticipating impacts which are recognised not yet well
Few companies have engaged operating management in processes that identify and prioritise social issues, based on their salience to business operations and their importance to the company's competitive context 29.
Companies need to shift from a fragmented, defensive posture to an integrated, affirmative approach. The focus needs to move away from an emphasis on image to an emphasis on substance.
the problemwith assuming that companies can do well while also doing good is that markets don't really work that way, Stanford Social Innovation Review (2005).
Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
the companies that made these products disappeared when they could not adapt to or find ways to use the new technology.
The tool is developed by the Finnish company Fountain Park. 5 Another tool for using weak signals in organizations is called the Futures Windows 5, in
Also a large group of experts from research institutes, private companies, and non-governmental organisations (NGOS) are consulted during this process.
Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.
These studies are part of a Dutch research and development programme that coordinates the efforts of leading research institutes and companies in The netherlands in the area of nanotechnology.
which can be seen as articulated expectations about which path a collective of companies or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).
i) the expectations that guide the search activities of scientists and firms, and (ii) the processes of agenda building 5,
Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,
scientific results, a collaboration between companies), which will evoke new, often more specific, expectations and agenda building. 4 We distinguish various interrelated levels where variation
What are the results of private companies that contribute to the realization of the technology?
Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments
Many countries and firms feel the need to explore and stimulate its possibilities. The future of nanotechnology has become an important topic for technology firms, policy makers and research institutes.
Typically, when new technologies emerge, they are accompanied by promises of all sorts. Earlier examples are biotechnology, genomics and microelectronics,
and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,
the public, politicians, firms. On the 5 1 nm is approx. 1/80,000 of the thickness of a human hair
The company expects to deliver a product that will replace existing forms of memory, such as DRAM, SRAM and flash memory, with a high-density nonvolatile duniversal memoryt 18.
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
bthe company expects to deliver a product that will replace all existing forms of memory.
This is a clear sign that the media see Nantero as a promising company to take nanotechnology to the market.
and acknowledges company on track for NRAM development. Nantero Press release (February 2004. 30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature
Clear and strict regulations are established to force companies and public bodies to internalise their environmental costs. 4. 3 Step 3:
More than 30 experts from private companies and public organizations helped to assess trends and determine scenario implications for the sustainable development model.
Companies have started to develop and apply technology roadmapping in the mid-1980s. It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.
how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
firms should also take a share of the responsibility for educating society and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making through inclusive dialogue.
Doubleday, Doran & Company. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 750 I. Tuomi Hiltunen, E. 2008.
including the network of companies with which the business has either strong or weak interdependencies or interlocking arrangements of a quite different character (Cagnin and Loveridge 2012).
the formulation is thought to be nearer to the advisory situations prevalent in companies contemplating market sensitive moves.
but its sponsors (16 major companies and a UK Government department) agreed to publication of the methods used.
technological change and dynamics 1. Introduction While foresight has been developed into an important instrument for both firms
and relevance of foresight. 2. Foresight exercises Various forms of foresight have been developed to support strategic decision-making amongst firms
The basic idea is that decision-making in firms and policy-settings will benefit from explorations of the future (Gordon,
varying from governmental agencies, funding agencies to individual research institutes or firms (Luiten, van Lente, and Blok 2006).
) by universities and firms, the production, diffusion and transfer of knowledge;(iii) the arena of programming,
and present the following comprehensive overview (Table 2). Foresight is exercised also in firms, where it tends to be framed in costs and benefits (Reger 2001;
which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
When uttered at a shareholders meeting of a company, it is a request to continue support for the firm to develop such material.
If spoken by the head of a laboratory of the same company in front of its R&d department,
Three years after his prediction, in 1968, Gordon Moore founded with Robert Noyce the company Intel,
Companies use the prediction of Moore to decide on the R&d goals and the size of the investments.
a compelling constellation of promising claims that enforces action in a way that perhaps none of the companies
but the work of networks of companies and research institutions. When a central control is lacking,
Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,
New technologies need protection to survive (in a company or a governmental programme), as they evolve by trial and error;
In companies, public organisations and in ministries foresight exercises are conducted for many reasons and with different effects.
where companies Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations 779
inform and coordinate efforts in research, firms and government. These overviews allowed us to draw lessons for foresight.
Technology foresight in companies: From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
and processes that assist decision-makers in the task of charting the company's future course of action (Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010;
The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:
On the one hand, scholars have shown that in the last two decades a significant number of leading firms of such diverse sectoor as energy, automotive, telecommunications,
on the one hand, the selected firms operated in distinct industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
Methods and data The research design is based on an inductive and multiple-case study of a group of selected firms.
These firms are BASF, Daimler, Philips, and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
The cases of these firms are extremely explanatory: on the one hand, throughout the 2000s, BASF, Daimler, Philips,
On the one hand, we examined the historical evolution of each industry of these firms since they started their foresight efforts and in particular throughout the 2000s.
and the selected firms, including historical annual reports, financial analysts'reports, conference presentations by top managers,
Second, company archives such as internal memos and technical papers supplemented publicly available data. Third, we interviewed a sample of senior and mid-level managers
and industry who had extensive knowledge of each company and its industry. Interviews were structured semi
and companies competed for market share at the international level. The boundaries between the micro and macro environments were blurred in these industries;
when the company realised that the chemical industry was going through major structural changes which made accurate and reliable predictions extremely difficult.
All the main customer industries of the company (the manufacturing, agriculture, and construction industries) are included, so that conclusions can be drawn about the resulting demand for chemical producct and about the overall industry's internal adaptation, in terms of consolidation, mergers and acquisitions, divestments, etc.
The growing pace of technology developmment and the continuous emergence of disruptive changes in customer needs have contributed together to greatly increased dynamism in these industries and for these firms.
A corporate unit (Philips Design) established in the 1990s delivers innovative design concepts and services for the company main businesses.
These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
Since the late 1990s, foresight activities have played a key role in redefining the company mission, as it focused its value proposition on the‘Sense and Simplicity'concept.
Initially, one of the company business groups is targeted as the‘buyer'for a specific market opportunity,
which fosters venture activities within the company and provides financial support to newsubsidiary companies and start-ups.
Most business groups also have their own venture activity groups, which cooperate in the experimentation and development of innovative ideas, newproduct concepts, and prototypes.
which major companies of different industries coped with increasing environmental uncertaiinty More generally, our findings offer the broad outline of a conceptual framework regarding how decision-makers match strategic foresight with environmental uncertainty.
All the firms of our sample were able to detect promptly the key drivers of change in their business.
BASF and Daimler could clearly know in advance who were (i) competitors (i e. in case of Daimler, other major carmakers and historical rivals such as BMW or new major companies from newly industrialised countries);(
iii) customers (firms and citizens of the most industrialised countries and the emerging ones; and (iv) providers of complementary products (fuel from oil majors.
Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;
Firms operating in mature industrrie have to rely as well on environmental scanning and explorative actions to look for likely technological discontinuities and major shifts in customer needs,
However, much additional research must be done for improving and expanding this conceptual framework through the study of environmental uncertaiint and foresight activities in other industries and firms.‘
and EIRMA (European Industrial research Management Association) in the European union. 2. A significant number of managers of the firms we studied pointed out that they had great difficulty in finding
5. Siemens is a conglomerate company which operates in a wide range of different businesses (e g. automation, building, energy, health, and mobility).
He has been a consultant for large firms and governmental bodies in Italy and abroad in several foresight projects.
Technology foresight in companies: From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
and a model of how companies create enduring continuity needed for sustainable development (Brundtland 1987). This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to anticipate
There is a rising importance in comprehending the advantages that firms can gain from network relationships (Hoffman 2000)
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
These seek to support firms while they implement monitoring and reporting of the activities that each enterprise believes are needed to achieve an enhanced triple-bottom-line business performance.
which a company can correlate its own culture in order to design its individual path towards sustainable development and implement the envisaged plan.
so that companies can effectively follow their (network) vision of sustainable development. Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
The current gaps that are being tackled by the proposed framework in comparison to the analysed tools are depicted also.
primarily universal principles and their learning aspect, that is, how companies integrate or‘internalise'the underlying principles into their vision
supporting a company's selection among the underlying possibilities of improvement so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
firms should work out their own model that brings new opportunities through dialogue and interaction, being transparent and accountable to stakeholders (Brinch-Pedersen 2003).
Hence, firms should use the evolutionary lessons as a main step in integrating sustainable development into the business model.
how the network value activities evolve in time For a company, sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
For most, the undeclared psychological imperative is to maintain‘successful continuity'and their independence. The secoon unspoken but implicit theme for a company is knowing that successful continuity,
measured by being able to secure future profits and a strong share price, for a limited time horizon, will be maintained through interdependence between itself and a swarm of suppliers and customers.
and balances exerted by many features of the swarm of companies in which the company is embedded.
It is not an entity that can organise its‘world'for its own benefit to the exclusion of benefits for others.
which a company will be seeking to achieve its (network) vision of sustainable development in uninterrrupte cycles of improvement.
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
Simultaneously, individual firms actively shape the future as an embedded network participant promoting a common vision within it
Consequently, firms will be enabled to anticipate and manage disruptive and transformative changes, allowing network partners to evolve together
However, both governments and firms should take part of the responsibility for educating society and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue,
but also based on the diverse range of feedback and partnership the company is able to build.
1 Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia, a Lockheed martin Company, for the United states Department of energy under contract DE-AC04-94al85000.
, person, company, technology, product, university, etc. and relationships from unstructured textual sources. Using rules to define categories,
especially by increasing the innovation activities in industry through technology platforms, stretching technoloogica capabilities of companies, and connecting research-based theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge through applications.
The construction machinery roadmap was aimed to develop new service capacities for a network of technology-oriented companies,
and 10 companies represented the business network. The construction machinerywas defined as machines, tools, and equipment that are used on the building site for making end-products and for providing different repair tasks and related services.
and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
The results provide strategic directions for companies and organisations when responding to system-level changes.
For companies and organisations alike, tackling these kinds of complex challenges, either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
In general, it could be stated that RTOS, companies, and other organisations would benefit from thinking explicitly in all of the four knowledge spaces discussed in the article.
we sketch three loose groups of companies. We note relatively fewof those companies‘doing it all'that is,
publicly researching, patenting, and openly pursuing business opportunities. Figure 2 also shows notable governmental and competitive factors.
Leading DSSC companies'prevalence in various data sources. SCI EI DWPI Factiva Samsung SDI Co. Ltd 52*38 65*4 Sharp Co. Ltd 27*24 17*4 Nippon oil
say, the leading patent assignee companies (not shown here) in terms of country of origin; most active International Patent Classes;%
Industry stakeholders may be small to medium-sized enterprises as well as global multinational companies, industry associations or research partnerships.
distribution and competitiveness Innovation and companies Ireland has a relatively modest‘‘home''market and is therefore reliant to a significant extent on its enterprise base
and technology and to enable smaller Irish companies to absorb and then exploit research results? Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,
Russian companies that are active in the natural resources sector routinely display high emissions figures several times higher than in other countries.
of which include the low level of innovation activities of Russian companies, an underdeveloped innovation infrastructure, inefficient legislation, etc.
which would contribute to increasing the growth rate of the economy, environmental safety and the competitiveness of Russian companies,
and appropriate innovative product groups with the potential to significantly increase the competitiveness of Russian natural resources companies.
and companies took part in the study, representing all sectors related to natural resources. The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
the most promising markets (and their segments) for Russian natural resources companies. Assessment of personnel, financial and technological requirements,
suppliers and peer companies, knowing the capabilities and intents of other organization for noncompetitive purposes.
Given the importance of investing in the right technology for companies and staying abreast of technological change, acquiring an advanced understanding of technology and its potential market shifting effects,
or developments that have the potential to affect a company's competitive situation. Ashton and Klavans (1997) also defined three basic objectives for CTI activities:
or company moves that represent potential business, threats or opportunities; 2. to evaluate new products,
Nelson, R. 1997), Why Do Firms Differ and How Does It Matter? Resources, Firms and Strategies:
A Reader in the Resource-based Perspective, Oxford university Press, Oxford. Orwat, C. 2003),‘WP 1 Review and analysis of national foresight;
whether organisations (including private companies) that consistently adopt foresight approaches, perform ultimately better than those that do not.
and increasingly fierce competition require companies to be innovative, both in their products andmarketing strategies,
For somenbs related companies that have enough money for R&d, it is a good time to invest in NBS to pursue potentialmarkets. 4. Conclusions How might technology life cycle analysis based on patents contribute to FTA?
Companies with strong capital strength and technical capabilities should participate in this stage and develop differentiated products to capture the market 35.
why it is so difficult for large companies to innovate? Online at, http://www. nngroup. com/reports/life cycle of tech. html 1998.
and technology assessment, describing the competition among firms or innovations, or simply among products struggling for a bigger market share.
Res. 128 (2001) 282 289.25 J. Dewey, The Public and its Problems, Holt and Company, New york, 1927.26 G. J. Busenberg, Learning in organizations and public policy, J
which explicitly focuses on multiple actor groups within the electricity system, most importantly the end users and the generation companies.
Generation companies are mainly responsible for short-term operation, as well as long-term management of their generator park. The short-term operation involves unit commitment decisions,
Generation companies'expansion decisions are driven mainly by profit expectations, and are dependent on forecasts about fuel prices, demand,
slope change fraction Yearly fractional change in the slope of the load duration curve-0. 01 0. 01 Planning horizon of the generation companies Upper bound for the planning horizon of the generation companies.
Planning horizon for each generation company is initialized randomly using a uniform distribution with a lower (i e. 5 years) and an upper bound) 6 12 Mean return on investment of generation companies Average expected return
-on-investment for the generation companies 0. 1 0. 25 427 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short term
if a high tech company is dependent on specific minerals and/or metals, the results of the case could be used to identify early indicators of, for example, cyclic pricing behavior.
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