how and why a particular survey question (or group of questions) was constructed can influence the outcome markedly.
Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis
this is the basis for most survey research interpretive perspective includes the context of the phenomenon as part of the object of study.
and assumes that there is an objective reality that can be detected people's perceptions of object reality relates to surveys,
and external validity (e g. surveys provide reliable data distributions but their validity in actually measuring constructs is suspect).
and all models and surveys are, to an extent, representations of the opinions and beliefs of their designers (4) The commonly believed metaphors of foresight,
Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey. Futures 32, no. 9/10: 867 85. Gordon, T. J.,J. C. Glenn,
A survey. California Management Review 4, no. 2: 139 60. Rollwagen, I.,J. Hofmann, and S. Schneider. 2008.
which was the desktop survey, the boundaries of the technological field were defined. The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.
Survey of earlier national research policy Where funding programs are considered as an element of future research policy it is important to gain an overview of previous funding activities in relevant subject areas as well as lessons learnt.
Hence, step 5 of a PAGE 24 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 strategic dialog might be a survey of earlier national funding activities and a gap analysis between those activities and the potential support
In a second phase, a survey of previous funding programs showed a need for initiatives to exploit the potential of‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0
B survey methodologies; VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels; B data analysis;
This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys interviews, workshops), and analytical research. All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.
More than 300 experts from the S&t and business communities, as well as government officials, took part in the exercise.
but the results of FS2 showed (on the basis of the expert survey) that the Russian management system in the natural resources area needed to be much more effective
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
while the procedure follows an anonymous, multi-stage communication process based on several survey rounds (Turoff,
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
a survey'',Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28 No. 4, pp. 1661-707. Grupp, H. and Linstone, H. A. 1999),‘National technology foresight activities around the globe:
Nugroho and Saritas 42 propose a framework for this, building on online foresight survey data, and by pointing at benefits in the various phases of a foresight process:
Available at http://www. pik-potsdam. de/luedeke/lit/springer12 ch4. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.65 A j. Reiss, Stuff and nonsense about social surveys and participant observation, in:
Clustering of time series data a survey, Pattern Recog. 38 (2005) 1857 1874.35 J. H. Kwakkel, W. E. Walker, V. A w. J. Marchau
but also the kinds of processes expanded from studies based on expert surveys to processes involving more stakeholders (such as NGOS and citizens).
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
The resulting visions were discussed with innovation experts with different perspectives on innovation patterns through interviews and an online survey.
The online survey was set up to support the qualitative interviews. Accordingly, participation was limited to a restricted circle of people with special expertise in relevant aspects of innovation or candidates for an interview.
56 experts participated in the survey. The majority of the participants were researchers, consultants, and inventors but a couple of people fromindustry and two policy-makers also took part.
one fromthe USA and two from Russia answered the survey. The vision based survey was received very positively by the responding experts.
The INFU visions generated high interest in the project and in further interaction and participation.
and answered the online survey in advance to the interview. By adding qualitative information to the results of the survey,
a valid interpretation of the results was ensured. In addition to the assessments given in the survey the experts were asked to point out missing aspects
and to suggest a clustering of the visions. Finally, it was discussed which visions were most interesting
Both interviews and survey were referring directly to the weak signals without introducing any assumptions on the socioeconomic context or causalities among the respective developments.
Accordingly, a structured assessment of very different aspects of changing innovation patterns was possible within interviews of 30 min up to 3 h. Considering that the participation in the online survey was restricted to a specific circle of people
a very high response rate was achieved (only about 40 experts were asked to participate in the survey
survey. 457 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 4. Visualisation of all INFU visions. 458 E. Schirrmeister,
and used as a base for both the interviews and the online survey. By using visual rather than textual information it was aimed to mobilise tacit knowledge
Vision 18 Vision 7 Vision 16 Vision 17 Vision 9 Vision 15 Fig. 5. Clarity of INFU visions assessed in the survey (n=56).
7 Vision 17 Vision 3 Vision 18 Vision 19 Fig. 6. Degree of novelty of INFU visions assessed in the survey (n=56). 459 E. Schirrmeister
The willingness of experts to engage with the survey was enhanced greatly as respondents appreciated the thought provoking nature of the amplifications
not only explicitly in the interviews but also in the written feedback included in the survey. Furthermore the high number of people watching the trailer in the internet can be interpreted as an appreciation of the visualisation.
Participants of the online survey extensively used the possibility to comment on the visions. Looking at the comments it is striking thatmany participants used a very informal language.
In order to test the approach (only very short textual information) respondents were asked to assess the clarity of the visions in the INFU online survey.
Most visions were assigned a high degree of clarity by the majority of the survey respondents (Fig. 5). At the same time almost all of the visions were assigned a high degree of novelty.
a wide range of opinions and observations is recruited often through interviews or surveys. In the INFU project thiswas done by a literature reviewand screening forweak signals by the project team as described above.
From all reactions collected on the 19 visions through the survey and the interviews the project team identified eight critical issues that seemed to have special potential for changing today's innovation patterns.
not only proved to be very helpful during the survey but also allowed the spreading of information, the extension of the expert network and the integration of very diverse perspectives.
In addition, a survey was conducted among civil servants involved with foresight policy and strategy. The response rate was over 40%(120 surveys completed) with a large majority of the respondents (88%)working for Dutch Ministries (such as Justice and Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.
The other respondents worked for planning organisations and other organisations directly linked to the Dutch government
The approach proposed combined wide participation through online surveys and a wiki platform in combination with interviews and workshops with selected industry experts,
online surveys and video/teleconferences combined with structured interviews and face-to-face meetings. The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
a first online survey was launched. It identified 261 experts around the globe and a variety of ideas about future innovations linked to one or more KATS and to social,
2. Linking the findings of previous projects and research with the results of the mapping, the interviews and the first online survey.
the first online survey, industrial workshops, and interviews with industry representatives. It can be summarised into three main statements 26:1.
The latter took place through a second online survey that counted 359 participants. The roadmaps have been adapted for use by the European commission.
which also used inputs from the online surveys and the wiki open consultation. The combination of open
State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
To interact with wider audiences'two online surveys and a wiki platform were used. An online platform was used by all partners to share
the results of online surveys, workshop discussions, interviews and partner meetings were used as input. As a result a number of research topics that would have been difficult to capture
including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
, dissemination activities Research Partners'databases Formal Online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal C. Cagnin,
In the design of the first online survey it was necessary to explain and convince partners of the benefits of elaborating the survey questions in a way that would enable it to capture future innovation ideas and the ways in
which these could be attained. Only after a debate on the nature of innovation and on how to solicit creative future ideas did partners achieve a common understanding and,
therefore, a consensus on the questionnaire used for the first online survey. Debate among partners took place through different communication channels:
A final meeting between JRC-IPTS and those responsible for conducting the survey took place to jointly design the questionnaire.
The first online survey was designed also to collect information that would be helpful for understanding both future developments
The combination of open and collective (online surveys, wiki) with closed and expert-driven stages (interviews
The second online survey and the wiki platform also enabled different parties to outline RI topics in
Study 1 aimed to identify users'specific (future) needs and possible Lead User ideas concerning digital TV (DTV) in Flanders through an online survey (N=11.802 digital TV users.
namely the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to the (future) use of DTV. 3. 1. 1. Methodological approach An online survey was set up
A large group of 46.000 Flemish DTV-users as key stakeholders were invited to fill in the survey by email.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 42 survey was taken (end 2009) in percentage of Flemish digital TV-viewers.
First of all, user surveys are used traditionally rarely at the early, exploratory stages of the development process and with the purpose of detecting future needs or opportunities.
In the light of new internet-based contents and services which offer new possibilities and features to Table 1 Results from expert survey (N=15.
curve modelling, leading indicators, envelope curves, long wave models Expert opinion Survey, Delphi, focus groups, participatory approaches Modelling and simulation Innovations systems descriptions
Their analysis is based on the results of two surveys of selected international foresight practitiioner and leading foresight organisations, conduccte by Canada's Office of the National science Advisor and the Telfer School of management at the University of Ottawa,
The methods combined bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a scenario building in order to better understand the factors involved in the initiation and spread of emerging diseases.
and intensive literature surveys (including foresight, future studies and even science fiction) and panel groups. Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS
we analysed demand issues by using data from consumer surveys and developing case studies on failed instances of product introduction
The RT Delphi is a way of addressing the problem of the generally large dropout rate in online surveys
and alloow all the answers to be taken into account until the end of the survey. An initial concern was the difficcult of controlling the sample
although it would have increased the risk of including unrealistic topics in the survey. To achieve such an objective a method based on identifying weak signals would be required
and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey. Are there any errors or omissions?
Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;
or stable in all the countries that replied to the survey, including Japan, Irelaand the UK and Germany.
and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were built then.
a combinatiio of literature review/bibliometric analysis and online surveys were conducted to preliminarily captuur the trends of infectious diseases.
Then, an online survey using the netwoor of experts in APEC was launched to involve international experts in reviewing the identified trends of EID.
When the survey had been completed, a face-to-face workshop for scenario planning was organized. Nano Bio Info Nanobiosystem (e g.,
I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention
The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA.
Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights which provided scope and focus to the study.
Her research interests and publications lie in the field of quantitative survey analysis, new media and advertissing She is currently working on a Phd thesis on advertisiin in a digital media environment based on the IBBT research project ADME (website<http://projects. ibbt. be/adme>).
Furthermore, the traditional user-research tools (including methods such as foccu groups, surveys etc. have been supplemented by alternative analytical methods (e g. archetype reseaarch personas, scenarios, proxy technology assesssmen etc.
For this concept evaluation phase, we conducted a major survey among the i-City panel (n=420.
312 panel members completed the survey. First, we examined the 80 applications and/or ideas and tried to group the long list into some clearly distinguishable application clusters.
and the adoption potential of the application was assessed by means of a large-scale survey (Berte et al.,
We collected innovation data for the promoted firms similla to those already existing for a sample of innovating firms of The swiss Innovation Survey 2002 (Arvanitis et al.
the use of innovation data for the subsidized firms, collected by means of a survey;
A further way of supporting private investment in innovation is through tax incentives for R&d expenditures (see Jaumotte and Pain, 2005 for a survey of the main fiscal policies to support innovation.
additional information on the firms whose projeect were subsidized that was collected through a survey of the subsidized firms based on a shortenne version of the questionnaire used in The swiss Innovation Survey 2002;
and the data for firms that reported the introduction of innovations in the period 2000 2002 in The swiss Innovation Survey 2002.
These firms received a shortenne version of the questionnaire of The swiss Innovattio Survey 2002.3 185 firms completed the questionnaire (see Table A1 in the Appendix to this paper for information on the response rates by scientiifi field.
A further 14 subsidized firms were identiffie among the participants of The swiss Innovation Survey 2002.
Additional information on the determiinant of the propensity scores (see section on Method) was collected through a telephone survey of the 122 subsidized firms that did not complete the postal survey.
The 996 firms that participated in The swiss Innovattio Survey 2002 and reported the introduction of innovations in the period 2000 2002 built the pool of non-subsidized firms from
Survey of subsidized enterprises: structure of answering enterprises by scientific field Scientific field Number of addressed enterprises Number of answering enterprises Percentage share of answering enterprises Construction technology 16 11 68.8
1999) for a survey on various matching procedures. Caliendo and Huber (2005) and Caliendo and Kopeinig (2005) give overviews of recent developments with respect to matching methods. 6. We used a‘biweight kernel'(quartic kernel) for the function G(.)It is defined as follows:
its in-house-developed web-based platform1 to carry out surveys can be employed whenever there is a need to gather primary data from experts
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
Note 1. CGEE's website Delphi and survey tool allows for gathering experts'opinion using questionnaires tailored to the investigation of both broad and narrow topic domains.
It allows for quickly building surveys with an easy-to-use interface, customizable themes, and flexible options.
But such surveys were merely to serve policy expectations rather than to lead to commercializatiio (Zheng 2001:
including an online survey, two expert-led scenario workshops, and other consultation processes..Participation: Foresight exercises usually demand broad participation for their success
ICTS are also useful for eliciting views via surveys, an approach that was used early on. Another challenge concerns accommodating some of the regional differences in perspective that undoubbtedl exist on the subject of international science cooperratio for grand challenges.
A survey among ERA NET participants under the Sixth Framework programme indicaate that the main activities other than joint calls/programmes that ERA NET participants engaged in, included:.
evoking Twitter activity around SESTI and more traditional methods such as a survey. The vast amount of data coming from these sources can be analysed in terms of potential signals of change,
4. web-based search engines as Google, Google news Timeline, 5 Google Insight6 and Bing7. expert review and survey. visits to conferences
surveys and visits to conferences and seminars while other tools like the initiation of a wiki and the active use of blogs and micro-blogging can encourage wider participation and dialogue.
Within the SESTI project, a survey was run asking various experts about new emerging issues and signals that they perceived.
A second aspect is that a survey yields limited information and is bound to the moment in
Based on the SESTI experience, an expert survey should be regarded as an additiiona tool with which to evaluate the issues which are identified,
Wikis and surveys are participative methods, and thus the representativeness, level of expertise, and commitment of participants are critical factors for success. The survey conducted in the SESTI project was confronted also with the limited time and visibility of the contributors.
Although a wide variety of potential participants was addresssed the results showed that the topics were often either very general or very specific.
The signals collected through the survey often led to websites and articles that were already available from other sources.
However, expert surveys can be quite useful in the processing and analysis phases where there is an explicit focus on certain fields and issues.
it seems that surveys are especially useful when the fields are specified and the scanning starts from well-defined fields such as energy,
) Focusing on specific fields, surveys can deliver additional information on various side aspects related to the core issue.
Analysis and interpretation Focused expert review High High High Wiki Low Low Low Twitter High low Low Surveys Low High High Conferences Low Medium High
Focused expert review which is assisted by experts'survey, literature review and attending conferences. The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach,
The value of the more‘conventional'methods like expert surveys, literature review and conferennc visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs like reviewing the state-of-the-art in a given field, searching for comprehensive reports on weak signals
specific for survey and conferencces large for focused expert review, literature review Duration: observation time Through reports, blogs, groups, social networks, Twitter, sites, etc.
Selection of which documents to include is crucial especially in‘bottom-up'analysis. Focused expert review is predefined based on reference frame Predefined criteria reflected in survey questions,
or meta descriptions Connections and clustering is made as reported in survey responses, literature and based on reviewers'expertise.
and by monitoring secondary signals As reported by survey respondents; use of tools like google timeline in focused expert review;
as reported in focused expert review findings As reported by survey respondents; as reported in focused expert review findings;
Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
As reported in raw sources in focused expert review As reported in survey responses, literature and raw sources in focused expert review;
and associated selection criteria In survey ensured by survey questions. In focused expert review ensured through application of specific referennc frame and associated selection criteria.
In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information As reported in survey responses and in literature and synthesised by reviewers.
or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by narratives in focused expert review.
It is also important to complement the validation process with relevant surveys or workshops. It is equally important to utilise automated tools for the clustering and network analysis of issues
and stakeholders and usually lead to recommendations As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting.
and surveys (Haegeman et al. 2011; Mckinsey & Company 2009; Saritas and Smith 2011), for instance, can be effective in collecting
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
Mckinsey global survey results',<http://www. mckinseyquarterly. com/>accessed 14 september 2011. Mendonc¸A s.,Pina e Cunha, M.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004)‘ Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisattion'Futures, 36: 201 18.
In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
In a second survey, the themes that emerged were ranked according to a set of criteria. The survey identified 25 focus themes which were described
and reassessed, taking account of the results of the expert interviews, so that ultimately 12 future topics were formulated (Klingner and Behlau 2008).
because it is established an reporting system that is provided by the World Federation of UN Associations. 280 international experts from 32 teams contribute to the surveys it is based on.
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