In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
JRC, C/Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain E-mail address: Elisabetta. Marinelli@ec. europa. eu*Corresponding author.
Tel.:++34 667448936 Riel Miller UNESCO, Bureau of Strategic planning, 7 Place Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France E-mail address:
Vienna, Austria E-mail address: philine. warnke@ait. ac. at Available online 21 january 2014 Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 4
Some of the literature has suggested that a decisive context for national foresight exercises relates to the size of the country.
several papers have analysed foresight processes in small countries. In a paper titled‘Foresight in Smaller Countries',Crehan and Harper analysed foresight in Malta, Cyprus and Estonia 8. In another example, Glod,
Duprel and Keenan recently published a paper entitled‘Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
the case of Luxembourg'9. Other literature suggests that geographical regions are a useful form of contextual categorisation.
The Handbook of Technology foresight, has chapters on four of such regions: the Nordic countries, industrialising Asia, Latin america,
and Central and Eastern europe 10. The chapters in the handbook explicitly consider the variety of approaches and contexts within each region,
Countries'or regions'political culture might be closely related to national governance culture. Havas et al. use governance culture to distinguish between the innovation policies in Western European countries, on the one hand,
The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
In his original study from the 1970s, Hofstede analysed cultural differences based on attitude questions that were asked of IBM employees in 40 countries.
The analyses have later been extended to other types of organisations and countries, and covered 76 countries by 2010 22.
In the original study, Hofstede presented four dimensions of culture (see Table 1) 20. In later works
However, data on this dimension are only available for a much smaller number of countries,
In countries with more uncertainty avoidance, such as France and Japan, short-and medium-term scheduling
and planning receive more attention than in countries with less uncertainty avoidance, such as Great britain and Denmark.
In countries such as France and Japan with a high uncertainty avoidance indexes, time and the future are considered to be something that should be mastered and exploited.
In contrast, in countries with lower uncertainty Table 1 Hofstede's cultural dimensions 19. Dimension Description Power distance The extent to
Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries. The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
Countries with strong uncertainty avoidance maintain rigid codes of belief and behaviour and are intolerant of deviant persons and ideas.
Hofstede notes that in countries with strong uncertainty avoidance deviant opinion on business, scientific, or political issues is associated with personal antipathies.
Hofstede also that in countries with weak uncertainty avoidance new ideas might just be ignored and not necessarily accept.
Fig. 1 shows a selected number of countries'scores on the power distance index and uncertainty avoidance index.
An Anglosphere cluster of countries (Great britain, Ireland, USA, Canada, Australia and New zealand) has a relatively low index for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
there is a Francosphere cluster of countries (France, Belgium), which has a relatively high index for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
France and Belgium are marked with a dotted circle in the upper right quadrant of Fig. 1. Between these clusters is a Germanosphere cluster (Germany, Switzerland and Luxembourg),
Countries such as Japan and South korea have relatively high uncertainty avoidance indexes, whereas other Asian countries, such as Singapore, Hong kong, China (and also, India and Indonesia), have low uncertainty avoidance indexes.
As seen, Denmark is characterised by a very low index for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
Among all 50 countries that are included in Hofstede's analysis, Denmark ranks as the 3rd lowest for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
and power distance index for a selected number of countries. Based on Hofstede 19 The authors of this paper are responsible for the selection of countries and for the indicative groupings.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 8 2. 3. Varieties of capitalism:
In contrast, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, The netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Japan are mentioned as examples of CME.
In their context, the term‘‘regional''refers to geographical clusters of countries 11. Countries are clustered into 6 regions:
Northwest Europe, Eastern europe, Southern Europe, North america, South america and Asia. The key argument is that the way in
This simplification leads to a categorisation of countries into three distinguishing political traditions:(1) established democracies,
The key point of view here is that history matters in the sense that foresight activities are inspired often by earlier activities in other countries.
it challenges the role of the history of foresight diffusion and adoption across and within the regions of many countries.
but the foresight activities of each country might reflect, to a higher degree, sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style
''foresight based on the socioeconomic and cultural features described above. 3. 1. Danish traditions and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight and similar systematic processes in policy making in science, technology and innovation policies or other policy areas.
science and technology have played traditionally a less important role in Denmark than in most of the comparable OECD countries.
As late as the 1980s, the Danish governmental expenditure on research and development (R&d), relative to the country's gross national product (GNP), was among the lowest of the OECD countries.
It must also be noted that together with the other Nordic countries, Denmark has established a well tradition of policy evaluation,
Consequently, today, Denmark is among the OECD countries with the highest public expenditures on R&d.
A Council for Strategic research has been established to contribute to increased co-operation between public and private research within a range of areas of strategic importance for the country.
Germany, The netherlands and Japan. In 1998, the Danish Board of Technology established an independent working group to analyse
Although Denmark was not among the first countries to adopt foresight explicitly, it must be noted that over several decades,
The two processes also show some traits that are expected for a country that has low uncertainty avoidance and low power distance.
The country's low uncertainty avoidance is reflected in several ways in the two cases. When during the Research2015 process, the expert group worked to reduce the number of themes for strategic research
Hofstede mentions that it has been shown that strategic planning is actually more popular in countries that display less uncertainty avoidance,
than in countries that display more uncertainty avoidance 19. The reason for this is that strategic planning presumes a tolerance for uncertainty
Instead of using country size or a country's regional affiliation (such as Western europe or Asia),
due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
when transferring experiences between countries and even more careful when planning cross-national foresight exercises. Even between culturally neighbouring countries, such as Denmark and Sweden, large differences exist in governance culture,
in addition to differences in industrial structure, academic traditions and so on. Our findings also have implications for the academic community.
Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.
2 T. Ko nno la, F. Scapolo, P. Desruelle, R. Mu, Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Forth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations SEVILLE, 12 13,may 2011. 7 J. Irvine, B
Picking the Winners, Pinter Publishers, London, 1984.8 J. Crehan, J. Cassingena Harper, Foresight in smaller countries, in:
Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2007.9 F. Glod, C. Duprel, M. Keenan, Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 november (8))(2009) 933 951.10 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley US, Reading, MA, 1978.17 T. C. Garrett, D. H. Buisson, C. M. Yap, National culture
and at a national level (within the same country), to increase our understanding of possible similarities and differences, taking the different responsibilities and tasks of these levels into account.
*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
(CGEE), Brasi'lia, Brazil c Impetu Solutions, Madrid, Spain 1. Introduction Mounting effective responses to many major societal challenges usually requires coordinated efforts
of supportive members from Europe, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, and the USA. The project engaged participants from these and many other countries.
The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020 and beyond.
This helps carrying out modules of analogous processes in parallel, for instance in different countries, thereafter further sub-processes can be conducted to interpret these processes,
Ultimately it is hoped that once the findings of this project are put into practice it will help EU manufacturing systems to flourish sustainably. 9 4. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages
groupwork Volunteering (for specific activities) Informal EU Commission Client Formal Face-to-face meetings, website, dissemination activities Industry Different economic sectors representing IMS region,
and future EU calls after 2014. At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision,
This understanding of potential needs at the local level which influence IMS at EU and global levels is
time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case
Poster presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2011.29 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, Foresight within era nets:
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
This International Seminar was founded on the success of the joint EU US Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that was organised by JRC-IPTS in 2004.
and the next conference is scheduled for the 16 17 october 2008 in Seville. This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics
Scapolo@ec. europa. eu (F. Scapolo), alan. porter@isye. gatech. edu (A l. Porter), Michael. Rader@itas. fzk. de (M. Rader.
http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/index en. html. 2 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/intro. html. 458 F
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
Previously, Fabiana was leading for more than 4 years the Foresight activities implemented by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (DG JRC-IPTS) located in Seville (Spain.
Attachment to the Secretariat of the German Bundestag's Enquete Commission on Technology assessment prior to the creation of the German Parliament's Office of Technology assessment (TAB),
Moscow 101000, Russia 1. Introduction Over the last decade, scholars, policy makers and practitioners from various fields have witnessed
From the seventies and eighties onwards, several proactive and more bottom-up technology assessment approaches emerged in different countries,
popular American fiction series are watched on the day that they are broadcasted in the US. The PP3 is also a very intensive internet user who uses multiple devices and screens (e g.,
Paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Seville, 12 13,may 2011. K. De Moor et al./
Presentation at Vienna University of Technology, 27,september 2010. 13 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory Innovation a research agenda, in:
*Cristiano Cagnin b c a Universidade do Vale do Itajai'(UNIVALI), Floriano'polis, Brazil b Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018
of Applied sciences, Academy for Creative industries, The netherlands c Chair for Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship, University of Potsdam, August-Bebel-Straße 89,14482 Potsdam, Germany d EICT Gmbh
, Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin, Germany 1. Introduction Both innovation and futures research have been identified as being crucial for the success of companies.
The project was intended to increase the understanding of the US car market by having managers live with ordinary American families for a certain time
a research and consultancy institute in the area of delta technology. 4 WINN was supposed to‘‘engage on a joint search with the country's society, business community and scientific sector for durable and innovative combinations of the use and space and society''.
EICT In 2004, the five German founding partners of the European Center for Information and Communication Technologies (EICT) Deutsche telekom AG (DTAG), Daimler AG (DAG), Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
To coordinate and organize the PPP, a German company with limited liability (German: Gmbh) was selected as the legal form for the organization.
In 2008, the European parliament and Council established the EIT as an independent agency in the EU. In the summer of 2009,
Each KIC had to bring together three independent partners from at least three different EU member states, with at least one partner from higher education and one private company 53.
7 which is subsidized by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).(2) Innovation catalysts that aim at supporting existing activities methodological.
in Germany, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2003) 93 111.22 P. Saffo, Six rules for effective forecasting, Harvard Business Review 85 (2007) 122 131.23
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
This special section is selected based on papers from the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain,
The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
C/Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain; Email: karelherrmanhaegeman@ec. europa. eu. Dr Jennifer Harper is at the Malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta;
Email: Jennifer. harper@gov. mt. Professor Ron Johnston is at the Australian Centre for Innovattio Ltd (ACIIC), Faculty of engineering, University of Sydneey Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
and applying foresight methodologies in the EU. He has a masters degree in business economics and in marketing,
She represents Malta at EU level on the Joint research Centre Board of Governors, the Euro-Mediterranean Monitoring Committee for Research and Technology development and the Framework programme 7, Regions Programme Committee.
These functions were an important outcome of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis held in 2006.
the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis arrived at various general recommendations for increasing the impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in policy-making,
Damrongchai et al. describe an appropriate mix of foresight methods that was applied in a research projeec of the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation aiming to better understand the complexity of emerging infectious diseases (EID.
Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Paper presennte at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 Septembbe 2006, Seville, Spain.
Steyaert, S, S Eggermont and H Vandebosch 2006. Towards the desired future of the elderly and ICT:
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain
horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal
and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).
This paper makes a detailed comparison of the experiences of three countries, 3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
This paper is reworked a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,
Belgium and Switzerland (Habeggeer 2009) while other countries are building up scan-based policy documents (Finland (Academy of Finland and TEKES, 2006), Canada (Smith,
2006) or have carried recently out scan-like exercises that were used solely to design foresight programs (Germany
Exchange of experiences, know-how and comparison methods Descriptions of horizon scanning processes in a number of countries were collected
if data can be incorporated from scans developed by countries on the other side of the world, at different stages of economic development or with contrasting political (and geopolitical) systems.
This proposal suggests developpin a network of countries and EC-level organisations that have performed horizon scanning
but which were also complementtary This means that cooperation might be rewarding to improve the scanning images for each country
Overall we conclude that horizon scanning as perforrme in the three cooperating countries is a powerffu tool
and countries and organisations that contribute relevant data and experttise This network would then be available to poliic groups within the EC (and other international groups),
but it also requires a policy that transcends several policy areas and the borders of countries.
Available at<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/keytechnoologiesreport. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
<http://cordis. europa. eu/foresight/kte expert group 2005. htm>,last accessed 1 Februuar 2010.10. The European Information Network on New and Changing Health Technologies.
Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006. Creative system disrupttion towards a research strategy beyond Lisbon, Report of the Key technologies Expert Group.
Available from<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/key-technologiesrepportpdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Available at<http://ec. europa. eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/reportthheworld-in-2025 en. pdf>>last accessed 1 february 2010.
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
et de l'Aménagement du territoire, 2006. L'aménagement en 50 tendances. Available from<http://www. rechercheinnovvationequipement. gouv. fr/article. php3?
Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Schwarz, J O 2006. Die Zukunft der Zukunftsforschung im Deutschen Management: eine Delphi Studie. Available at<http://www. jan-schwarz. de/downloads/executivesummary. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
) In the period 2000 2003 this sector contributte to more than 25%of Europe's productivity growth, making it the leading sector in the EU econoom both in terms of labour productivity (almost twice the whole economy average
thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy. At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth
and in OECD countries they have an annual growth rate of 5 20%(figures include advertising/marketing,
C/Inca Garcilaso, s n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain: Email: fabienne. abadie@ec. europa. eu; Tel:+
+34 954 488228: Fax:++34 954 488208. Michael Friedewald is at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovattio Research Competence Center‘New Emerging Technologiees'Breslauer Strasse 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany;
Email: michael. friedewald@isi. fraunhofer. de; Tel:++49 721 6809.146; Matthias Weber is at the Austrian Institute of technology, Departtmen Foresight and Policy development, Donau-City-Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria;
Email: matthias. weber@arcs. ac. at; Tel:++43 50550 4561. For acknowledgements see page 30.
potentially changing the competiitiv environment of entire countries. Disruptions are therefore as much a threat to inflexible older businesses as an opportunity for more flexible new entrants.
As a consequence, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES like foresight have gained growing attention in recent years in the EU and worldwide,
Michael Friedewald is head of the business unit for informatiio and communication technologies at the Fraunhofer Instiitut for Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, Germany.
He is currently in charge of a study on ubiquitous computing for the German Federal Parliament
and working on the German National foresight Process. He has coordiinate a project on EPIS and several studies on ambient intelligence for the European commission.
Matthias Weber is the head of the Technology policy Unit at the Austrian Institute of technology in Vienna.
The high degree of diversiit of the creative content sector represents an added difficulty in taking an EU-wide perspective,
and those that are related R&d may already be tackled through EU Framework programmes or other European commission initiatives,
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisionmakking held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. References Aho Expert Group 2006.
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European communities. Christensen, C M 1997. The Innovator's Dilemma:
EPIS Deliveerabl 2. 3. 1. Available at<http://epis. jrc. ec. europa. eu/>,last accessed 28 january 2010.
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicatiion of the European communities (Scientific and Technical research series, EUR 23633 EN.
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicatiion of the European communities. United nations 2004. Creative industries and Development. Repoor TD (XI)/ BP/13.
calof@telfer. uottawa. ca and jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
Thirty experts from ten countries were sent a brief questionnaire and asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
About 15 experts from ten countries and five internaationa organizations responded. In the second phase, we examined the institutions viewed as having the best foresight practices
and representatives interviewed incluuded Forfas in Ireland, the National Institute for S&t policy (NISTEP) in Japan, the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Center for Technoloog Foresight in Thailand, Finnsight 2015 (encompasssin a mix of Nokia
and a leader in regional foresight in Spain. In the next phase, nine foresight institutions identiffie during the first study were contacted,
He maintains active connecttion with foresight organizations in Europe, Asia, the US and Brazil. Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
*See the website of the EFMN<http://www. foresight-network. eu, >last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
Thirty experts from ten countries were sent a brief questionnaire and Table 2. Foresight impact dimensions Dimension Impact issue Raising knowledge Forming attitudes
About 15 experts from ten countries and five internatiiona organizations responded. The objective of this phase was to identify the organizations that the experts in foresight felt were the most successful.
Which five countries do you believe have advanced the most, productive or successful foresight programs? Of the countries you have identified,
can you point out some best practices or elements that you feel contributed most strongly to the program's success?
Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey. Are there any errors or omissions?
and national foresight programs from the following countries responded to our first study: Forfas in Ireland;
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
interviiew with foresight practitioners, managers responnsibl for national foresight efforts in various countries, and; reviews of foresight project level summaries and overviews from the EFMN (part of the European foresight Knowledge sharing Platfoor which monitors
Our second study looked at the following countries: Table 4. Criteria for improving the impact of foresight studies Foresight content criteria Plausibility;
Denmark (Spain was exchanged in favour of Australia to have more global diversity and three more European countries were added);
and Australia, Netherlands, Germany and France. The second study aimed to extend the analysis by asking the following questions:
To whom did your country look to when starting its national foresight efforts? did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government?
or foresight support in your country? What amount? How many full-time equivalent staff per year work in the national foresight program?(
or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
What has done your country in various foresight initiatives (national, supranational, regional or sector) to promote public participation?
there was relatively little program diversity seen from country to country. Audience: The target audience for all national foresight exercises appeared to be broad in scope,
or stable in all the countries that replied to the survey, including Japan, Irelaand the UK and Germany.
The reverse appears to be happening in Canada, where the Office of the National science Advisor,
The real problem is not knowing what different countries do, which does not differ much from country to country,
but determining how or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time.
'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Available at<http://www. foresight-network. eu>,last accessse 3 february 2010. Georghiou, Luke and Michael Keenan 2004.
Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004. Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. Paper presented at EU US Seminar:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
Criterri for improving the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank: lessons learnt in mapping trends. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Van der meulen, Barend, Jan de Wilt and Hans Rutten 2003. Develoopin futures for agriculture in The netherlands:
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