and at a national level (within the same country), to increase our understanding of possible similarities and differences, taking the different responsibilities and tasks of these levels into account.
The project engaged participants from these and many other countries. The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020 and beyond.
This helps carrying out modules of analogous processes in parallel, for instance in different countries, thereafter further sub-processes can be conducted to interpret these processes,
From the seventies and eighties onwards, several proactive and more bottom-up technology assessment approaches emerged in different countries,
a research and consultancy institute in the area of delta technology. 4 WINN was supposed to‘‘engage on a joint search with the country's society, business community and scientific sector for durable and innovative combinations of the use and space and society''.
horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal
and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).
This paper makes a detailed comparison of the experiences of three countries, 3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,
Belgium and Switzerland (Habeggeer 2009) while other countries are building up scan-based policy documents (Finland (Academy of Finland and TEKES, 2006), Canada (Smith,
Exchange of experiences, know-how and comparison methods Descriptions of horizon scanning processes in a number of countries were collected
if data can be incorporated from scans developed by countries on the other side of the world, at different stages of economic development or with contrasting political (and geopolitical) systems.
This proposal suggests developpin a network of countries and EC-level organisations that have performed horizon scanning
but which were also complementtary This means that cooperation might be rewarding to improve the scanning images for each country
Overall we conclude that horizon scanning as perforrme in the three cooperating countries is a powerffu tool
and countries and organisations that contribute relevant data and experttise This network would then be available to poliic groups within the EC (and other international groups),
but it also requires a policy that transcends several policy areas and the borders of countries.
and in OECD countries they have an annual growth rate of 5 20%(figures include advertising/marketing,
potentially changing the competiitiv environment of entire countries. Disruptions are therefore as much a threat to inflexible older businesses as an opportunity for more flexible new entrants.
Thirty experts from ten countries were sent a brief questionnaire and asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
About 15 experts from ten countries and five internaationa organizations responded. In the second phase, we examined the institutions viewed as having the best foresight practices
Thirty experts from ten countries were sent a brief questionnaire and Table 2. Foresight impact dimensions Dimension Impact issue Raising knowledge Forming attitudes
About 15 experts from ten countries and five internatiiona organizations responded. The objective of this phase was to identify the organizations that the experts in foresight felt were the most successful.
Which five countries do you believe have advanced the most, productive or successful foresight programs? Of the countries you have identified,
can you point out some best practices or elements that you feel contributed most strongly to the program's success?
Please review our proposed list of countries/individuals chosen for our direct survey. Are there any errors or omissions?
and national foresight programs from the following countries responded to our first study: Forfas in Ireland;
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
interviiew with foresight practitioners, managers responnsibl for national foresight efforts in various countries, and; reviews of foresight project level summaries and overviews from the EFMN (part of the European foresight Knowledge sharing Platfoor which monitors
Our second study looked at the following countries: Table 4. Criteria for improving the impact of foresight studies Foresight content criteria Plausibility;
To whom did your country look to when starting its national foresight efforts? did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government?
or foresight support in your country? What amount? How many full-time equivalent staff per year work in the national foresight program?(
or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
What has done your country in various foresight initiatives (national, supranational, regional or sector) to promote public participation?
there was relatively little program diversity seen from country to country. Audience: The target audience for all national foresight exercises appeared to be broad in scope,
or stable in all the countries that replied to the survey, including Japan, Irelaand the UK and Germany.
The real problem is not knowing what different countries do, which does not differ much from country to country,
but determining how or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time.
but developing countries have a disproportionate share because of poverty, limited access to health care, drug resistaanc
and to improve the human and animal health situation in both developed and developing countries.
An epidemic, of unknown cause, occurred in ten countries. After tracing back for two years,
Beyond 2017 Validated, easy to use in the field or local site, low cost, suitable for developed and developing countries, no cold chain required Higher sensitivity and specificity Simultaneous,
public fiscal policies to support innovation Most OECD countries use large amounts of public funds to support activities that are intended to enhaanc innovation in the business sector.
In a comparison of industrialized countries only Japan and Luxembourg show a comparably low percentage of government financing for R&d (OECD
the selection of a limited number of policy-relevant posters, based on the experience both of individual countries and international organisatioons the invitation to policy-makers and experts to provide an informed audience for the poster presentations;
and constituute a differential for organizations and countries looking forward to shaping their own future
It is broad enough to support a large spectrum of ST&I activities in the country. All phases of the innovation value chain are being mapped by FINEP
in order to guide national investments in nanosciences and nanotechnologies Trends in S&t development in a selected group of countries;
and nanotechnologies in selected countries Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 251 supporting basic and applied research;
liuli66@tsinghua. edu. cn Few countries have increased their expenditure on r&d as rapidly as has China in recent years.
pluralist coordinattio that is emerging in many Western countries (cf. Braun 2008 on Europe; Block and Keller 2011 on the USA.
In his classic paper Weinberg (1963) formulated what later became a dominant mechanism for priority-setting in science policy in Western countries:
Today's mechanism for priority-setting in these countries is therefore a hybrid, sometimes drawing upon scientific expertise not only in low-level decision-making but also in the framing of societal challenges underlying science policy priorities (Pielke 2007),
Ergas (1987) identifies two principal orientations of countries'technology policy: diffusion-and missionorienttation While Ergas'categorization is useful,
Foray 2000) have focused generally on economically advanced countries and thus presuppose relatively well-developed and mature S&t institutions, basic capacities and governance mechanisms.
in modern times it has lagged behind Western countries in S&t (Ke 2004). Beginning with the founding of People's republic of china in 1949, a Socialist centralized S&t system was built in the 1950s by adding the Soviet model of centralized planning onto the S&t system that had emerged in the Republic of china (e g.
or thematic centers of excellence can be juxtaposed with programs aimed at raising the general level of S&t throughout the country.
when compared with many other countries. However, the imbalance acquires greater significance when a country has developed insufficiently capital markets compared with countries where there are mature markets and channels for innovation funding.
While there is an abundance of capital in China today, the funding system for commercialization of new firms,
both as a percentage of gross domestic product and compared with education funding in other countries, is low.
In contrast, some economists, such as Justin Yifu Lin, argued that the country should continue to rely on China's comparative advantages (Lin et al. 2003.
and differences across countries the approach illustrates how the institutions and mechanisms of a nation support technological and industrial innovattio within its borders (Nelson and Rosenberg 1993;
C.-C. Chung has tried also to link the relationships within a sectoral innovation system to a country's international performannce as well as a sector to the technological opportunities which can be mobilized to develop new products and processes for that sector.
which differs from the experiences of Western countries. Moreover the Taiwanese government has implemented not a‘set of policies'towards biotechnology,
) Besides manufacturing intermediaries, some local firms imported higher-end intermediaries from countries, such as Japan and Germany,
since the knowledge accumulation of biopharmaceuticals in Taiwan was too weak to compete with developed countries,
Taiwan. 279 RTDI policies copied from foreign countries or copied from another NSTIS will find it very difficult to appropriattel support the development of a specific NSTIS.
The knowledge also spread to adjacent countries including Japan and Korea. Compared with herbal medicine,
Edquist, C. and Hommen, L.,eds,(2008) Small Country Innovation systems: Globalization, Change and Policy in Asia and Europe.
There are distinct differences in actors and relations-shaping institutiion between countries and sectors, and in the way they perform.
Indeed, expected system elements might be completely absent in some national settings particularly in less developed countries and/or weakly developed or dysfunctional in others.
Jacobsson, S. and Bergek, A. 2006)‘ A framework for guiding policy-makers intervening in emerging innovation systems in‘catching-up'countries',European Journal of Development Research, 18: 687 707.
A third model, more accessible to countries and organisations with limited resources, is the network model
We can conclude that a substantial benefit can be derived from such networks, in particular for smaller countries or countries with a less developed foresight and anticipatory intelligeenc culture in general.
Moreover, they conclude that foresight exercises carried out in smaller countries require international support. International cooperaation in particular when assisted by FTA networks,
These carry out their work in open networked mode, sharing informatiio at international level with their counterparts in other countries and also internally within the country, with government, business, academia and the public.
journals. permissions@oup. com (121 members, representing 141 countries) and International Scientific Unions (30 members.
CGIAR grew out of the international response to widespread concerns that many developing countries would succumb to hunger.
It was unprecedented an initiative involving thousands of scientists across more than 60 countries. It provided major new scientific insights,
expanding its scientific reach through cooperation agreements with countries across the globe. Regional initiatives, particularly the development of a transnational European research area, are having a signifiican effect on international science cooperation (European commission 2008.
Whilst several countries such as Brazil, China and India are making rapid progress (Royal Society 2011
There remain a large number of poorer countries where investment in science is negligible (UNESCO 2010.
These inequalities are reinforced by a net outflow of trained scientists from poorer to richer countries.
This is a particular challenge in times of economic constraint where countries look to science to address their immediate needs for national growth.
Related to this are issues around intellectual property regimes in different countries and restrictions on access to data for science.
The outcome of the web consultation was 174 separate ideas for key drivers from 82 individuals from more than 30 countries.
At one end of this axis, countries have oriented a nationnall outlook and tend to look inward
At the other end, countries have a global outlook and favour international cooperattio when problem-solving.
This is also likely to have impacts on those countries with limited scientific capacity at present. International collaborative research infrastructures:
and how committed countries will be to them are key factors in determining the strength of international science.
of labour leads to intense specialisation of countries'economies Governments compete to host the R&d facilities of multinationals through large R&d investments Public science focused on basic research that multinationals are less likely to perform themselves Strong global networks
and instead serves powerful national militaryindusstria complexes Less developed countries are left isolated from scientific endeavours Mobility of scientists has declined A divided and dangerous world
commons including less developed countries Science is a global stabilising agent Greater mobility of researchers Internationally agreed data standards Global strategic research fund combining 2%of each countries public research
with the charge that the exercise says too little on how to support science in developing countries.
Overall there is a more balanced global scientific effort as more countries perceive the benefits of investing in science.
and countries are more willing to subsume some of their national interests to ensure the success of global cooperative activities.
A major driver in this changing landscape has been the recognition that no one country has the intellectual or financial resources to tackle the crucial scientific questions alone.
With an expanded membership base (in terms of both countries and disciplines; an efficient head office structure;
Optimizing systems Increasing awareness of global consequences of climate change Economic recession Emission trading starts to have effect on companies Rising living standards in BRIC countries Green values:
The fourth driver is the rising living standards in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China.
is designed to address country-specific issues Insufficient knowledge of similar national programmes in other countries Lack of budgetary flexibility Lack of mutual trust Source of funding does not encourage use of funds for transnatiiona activities Language
Such programmes are implemented in different countries with different priorities. They either complement national and regional policies
participatory and anticipatory co-ordination approach The complexity of the co-ordination challenge of transnatiiona research programming calls for approaches that can engage stakeholders horizontally from different policy and research areas as well as vertically and internationally from different countries and regions to support informed
Transnational activities are focused on non-EU countries Administration costs of transnational projects outweigh benefits No significant policy changes or explicit criteria
The responsibles for the shaping of research agendas realised that a systematti participatory bottom up foresight process could streamline the engagement of Research and Technology development communities from eight countries.
(and three observers) of 19 EU Member States and Associated Countries 2008 11 Develop a durable focused network22 of national research funders in Member and Associated States of EU in order to share information,
and associated countries 2010 onwards‘Rethink and manage the increasing urban orientation and concentration in Europe in order to create
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
and capabilities of different countries to participate in joint programmes. We consider that foresight holds promise for a structured and responsive process that efficiently mobillise stakeholders
In Woodwisdom-Net, scalability meant that the consultation process had to deal with varying amounts of contributions from a large number of stakeholders in different countries.
for instance, input scalability can be achieved by carrying out modules of analogous foresight processes in different countries, after
which offers participating countries various options and instruments to participate (such as foresights, joint calls, and the alignment of existing programmes) in variable geometry.
which structures the engagement of stakeholders from different countries, sectors and disciplline and facilitates and speeds up the implementation (see Fig. 4). Achieving the benefits of foresight activities in support of the implementation of other programming functions is related to the appropriate positioning of foresight design and management in the overall programming process.
or when the research and innovation systems and capacities of the countries involved are highly diverse. 5. Conclusions Recent efforts in transnational research programming indicate that the mobilising effect of embedded foresight activities can lead to novel networking and cross-feeding of research and innovation
initiatives between the sectors, disciplines and different countries. However, such internatiiona engagements call for a structured and modular design to avoid endeavours that are time-and resource-intensive.
Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process. 26. The assessment criteria for researcher's were:
Bruno, N. and Van til, J. 2011)‘ ERAWATCH Country Reports 2010: Belgium'.'Brussels: ERAWATCH Network Technopolis Group, European commission.
Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<
24) The challenges to developing countries are also becoming global. Different publications or internal papers can be discusssed
On the other hand, obesity is on the increase in developed countries. Although the global health situation is improving,
with more than 50%of the major reserves located in very poor countries and three billion people lacking water.
and poverty reduction, both nationally and internationally) Target 13 Address special needs of least developed countries (includes tariff
-and quota-free access for least developed countries'exports, enhanced program of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCS) and cancellation of official bilateral debt,
and more generous official development assistance for countries committed to poverty reduction) Target 14 Address special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing states (through Program
of Action for the Sustainable development of Small Island Developing States and 22nd General assembly provisions) Target 15 Deal comprehensively with debt problems of developing countries through national and
Methodologically, the analysis of different foresight activities in different countries was at the forefront. From these analyses, a core team composed of Fraunhofer
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