See<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 december 2011.2. A f ifth possible way of social organisation would be the solitary person who escapes from coercive or manipullativ social involvement altogether.
FTA Conferences on<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta. html>accessed 15 dec 2011.4. FARHORIZON Innovation policy Workshop (Weber and Georghiou 2010) and ERAPRISM Policy Dialogue Brief on Innovation policy (Georghiou and Harper 2010),<http://farhorizon. portals. mbs. ac. uk
6. Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union,<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/innovation-union-communication en. pdf>accessed 15 december
<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011. Amanatidou, E. 2008)‘ Joint foresight':
<http://ec. europa. eu/invest-inreseearchpdf/download en/aho report. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011..(2008)‘ Challenging Europe's Research Rationales for the European research area (ERA)',Report of the ERA Expert Group, EUR 23326 EN.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/era/pdf/eg7-era-rationales-final-report en. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/erab/pdf/erab-first-annual-report-06102009 en. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011.
<http://www. eraprism. eu/work packages. asp? Subfolder=WP2>accessed 15 dec 2011..(2011)‘ From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis',Futures, 43: 229 31.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/conferences/2004/ntw/pdf/final report en. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/rationale en. pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none>accessed 15 dec 2011.
<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011. Tukker, A. and Butter, M. 2007)‘ Governance of sustainable transitions:
<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011. Weber, M. and Georghiou, L. 2010)‘ Dynamising innovation policy:
<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011. Coping with a fast-changing world. 165
See<http://wiwe. iknowfutures. eu/>accessed 10 march 2012.4. In 2007 ESF evaluated the experiences with Forward Looks (Van der meulen 2007.
Within the EU initiatives between Member States exist on all eight levels and all are part of the same research and innovation system.
In the EU platforms exist at regional8 (e g. Smart Specialisation Platform9 national (e g. ERAWATCH10) and transnational (e g.
The articulation of thematic priorities for transnational research and innovation co-operation, e g. from EU level, raises issues related to their coherence with the priorities and needs of lower levels of governance, particularly in terms of
or become a replacement policy framework in some fields (e g. in the case of new EU Member States).
Transnational activities are focused on non-EU countries Administration costs of transnational projects outweigh benefits No significant policy changes or explicit criteria
(and three observers) of 19 EU Member States and Associated Countries 2008 11 Develop a durable focused network22 of national research funders in Member and Associated States of EU in order to share information,
or transnational level Proposals for (strategic research topics for commissioning at EU level taking into account ongoing and planned research in European countries Facilitate cost-effectiveness of research-commissioning by trying to establish
EU Member States have approved a first version of evolving and voluntary framewoor conditions for joint programming (ERAC-GPC 2011),
Food Security and Climate change have no openness to other EU Member States. 7. Platforms collecting data on foresight exercises can offer deeper insights into possible and desired futures of research priorities, e g.<
<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.8. The use of‘regional'in this paper is to be understood as‘geographically part of a nation'
<http://ipts. jrc. ec. europa. eu/activities/research-andinnovvations3platform. cfm>accessed 15 march 2012.10. ERAWATCH is a platform collecting data on national research systems in the ERA,
For example, 23.9%of EU gross expenditure on r&d is performed by the higher education sector, but with many national differences.
industrial relevance, possible time horizon for industrial use and need for collaboration at EU level. 27.
See<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.35. An example is the generic online foresight training,
2012)‘ Forlearn Online foresight Guide',<http://www. foresight-platform. eu/community/foresightguide/>accessed 15 march 2012. External Evaluation.
<http://ec. europa. eu/dgs/education culture/evalreports/education/2011/eitreport en. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<
<http://erawatch. jrc. ec. europa. eu/erawatch/export/sites/default/galleries/generic files/file 0101. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012.
Evaluation for the European commission',<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/fp7/docs/fp6-era net-evaluation-final-report-volume-1-q1-q5-d1
Niehoff, J. and Andersdotter, C. 2007)‘ Report on the Workshop for ERA NETS on industrial technologies',<http://netwatch. jrc. ec. europa. eu/static/download/Report%20workshop
Reid, A.,Miedzinski, M.,Bruno, N. and le Gars, G. 2007)‘ Synergies between the EU 7th Research Framework programme, the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework programme and the Structural Funds',Policy
<www. jointprogramming2010. eu/pdfpresenntation1. 2%20-%20seiser. pptx>accessed 15 march 2012. Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2004)‘ The rise of systemic instrumeent in innovation policy',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, 1: 4 32.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges, 'which was carried out in 2009 by the Joint research Centre-Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) of the European commission (EC).
Boden et al. 2010) which focused on long-term developments and their policy implications on EU policy-making, as a means of preparing for the development of the Europe 2020 strategy and related policy initiatives such as the EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
with the aim of identifying future trends and disruptive events that could have major implications on EU policy-making by 2025 (cf.
relevance to EU policy-making. novelty in comparison with earlier policy debates. probability of occurrence by 2025 In total, 381 issues were evaluated on a seven-point Likert-scale
the core issues identified in this analysis seemed to be the most relevant for EU policy-making. 3. 3. 2 Variance-oriented analysis. Variance-oriented analysis was conducted
and to examine their policy implications for the EU. Apart from participants from BEPA and JRC-IPTS, there were 22 representatives from several Directorates-General of the EC,
and how the EU could respond to it through adequate policies. At least one of the three issues had to be among the top-10 core issues in one of the three different analyses,
which the workshop participants created novel interlinkagge by formulating crosscutting challenges and by envisioonin corresponding EU policies and actions in domains such as:
and the role of EU in relation to global governance. Table 2 provides an example of such a crosscutting challenge that synthesizes issues from different thematic areas.
and workshop participannts such as the one presented in Table 2. These 22 crosscutting challenges were prioritized then by discussing them in the light of three solution-oriented criteria related to their importance at the EU level.
Is the challenge likely to provoke impacts that require urgent actions at EU level?.Tractability:
Does the EU have the institutional capacity to act on this challenge?.Impact: Are the actions to be taken by the EU expected to have a major global positive impact?
A reconsideration of the policy agenda of BEPA, together with a collective analysis of all issues
and small radicalized groups will use more and more sophisticated forms of attacks V M State's ability to guarantee security of citizens will increase in Western world M R Interdependency of internal and external security is growing in EU
The need for more effective and transparent governannc for the EU and the world. All these challenges exhibit a global scope
and require action at EU level through appropriately aligned crosscutttin policies that implement effective joint responses.
and then synthesized into challenges at the EU level. The vocal satisfaction expressed by the workshop participants suggests that there is considerable potential in carrying out similar or analogous exercises based on the same methodological approach.
and how such challenges could be explored in view of EU-level policy implications. The traceability of crosscutting challenges
font styles of issue codes refer to results obtained in different RPM analyses(<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/survey issues. pdf,
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'which has informed the strategy processes of BEPA and JRC, has influenced also other stakeholders,
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
<http://www. medetel. eu/index. php? rub=proceedings&page=info>accessed 14 september 2011. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/rationale en. pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none>,accessed 16 september 2011.
Grand challenges are discussed at many levels, for instance, the EU, the regions, nations, cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:
EU 2011 or the different definitions given during the presentations at the Innovation Convention, held 5 6 december 2011 in Brussels). Some institutions and companies have lists of megatrends and regard them as global challenges.
'One is‘The World in 2025'(EU Commission 2009), which argues about trends, tensions and major transitions.
Trends mentioned are (EU Commission 2009: 11ff):.) The Asian century is approaching, with nearly twothiird of the world's population living in Asia (in 2025), with increasing inequalities and Asia as the first producer and exporter of the world..
and cultural distance (EU Commission 2009: 19ff) In this context, transitions are assumed to be:.towards a multi-polar world and world governance. towards a new universalism (political-cultural transition.
'demographic change and‘active ageing'(EU Commission 2009: 19ff) These transitions are considered also to be‘megatrends'in other publications.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'.'Sevilla: JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 24364 EN, European commission Report.
Office for Official Publications of the EU. Cuhls, K.,Blind, K. and Grupp, H. 2002) Innovations for our Future.
2009), See<www. se2009. eu/..fs/1...lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf>accessed 20 september 2011. Naisbitt, J. 1984) Megatrends:
<http://community. iknowfutures. eu/pg/pages/view/3528>accessed 22 july 2011. UN Millennium Challenges. 2005), See<http://www. millennium-project. org/millennium/challenges. html>accessed 19 july 2011.244.
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