applications, products, markets and drivers with empirical analysis of the policy instruments that are utilised currently. The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument
or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
Cuhls, Bunkowski and Behlau provide a case study of the Fraunhofer Institutes'action-oriented foresight process of using global challenges to identify and implemeen research themes for future markets.
analysed, restructured and selected according to potential Fraunhofer contributions and market potential. Five challennge were formulated subsequently to serve as a frame for the new Future topics programme.
and explore new markets, products and services. It represents a merger of future methods with those of strategic management.
the sense of timing is driven by increased competition in the internal and external markets, requiring immediate solutions to the problems identified,
As China started the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, this entailed a reconstruction of the S&t institutes as well as the universities and, in particular,
pushing scientists to seek funding from the market while launching the National Natural science Foundation of China (NSFC) and national S&t programs for researchers to apply to on a competitive base.
which explicitly proposed to establish the Socialist market economy system. A decision on accelerating the progress of S&t was launched in 1995,
and towards linking STI efforts more closely with market forces and the private sector (US Embassy Beijing 1996).
when a country has developed insufficiently capital markets compared with countries where there are mature markets and channels for innovation funding.
A group of actors in the system carry out market and non-market actions for the creation, production and sale of the products.
which is under specific institutional infrastrucctures The interactions of the actors in the network are both market and non-market.
and non-market interactions in order to generate, diffuse and utilize the knowledge of a particular technologgica field to create,
Instead they competed with each other in the domestic market on the basis of price. Until 2000, knowledge transfer and collaboraatio between companies were minimal.
In the 1980s, with advantageous technologies and marketing capabilities, MNCS shared more than 50%of the domestic market (Zheng 2001:
the sales of local SMES only accounted for 31%of the domestic market, while MNCS accounted for 38,
%and the imported medicines had 31%of that market (Zheng 2001: 194). ) A very minor but important sub-sector of the pharmaceuttical was Chinese herbal medicine,
The quality controls in these herbal factories were not consistennt The majority of these factories targeted the domestti market
Furthermore, before the 1980s, most of the crops, especially rice, were exported to foreign markets. Farmers who served the foreign markets only obtained rewards from the sales of their harvests.
However, the rewards for farmers were only sufficient for their survival. They were not sufficient for them to reinvest in seed innovation (Liu 1996:
and to open its domestic market for foreign agricultural products, the R&d funding for modern agricultural biotechnology was decreased even slightly (Wong 1998:
none of the GM seeds were allowed to be traded in the domestic market. Moreover, until 2000, there was no regulation for non-edible GMOS.
Therefore, non-edible GMOS, such as GM ornamental fish, could be traded in the domestic market without permission.
guidance and the selection of options, market formation, and mobilisation of resources. This is followed by a discusssio (Section 4) of the systemic reorientation of innovattio systems towards grand challenges and the demands put on policy and governance.
process, service or organisational form into the marketplace and the social sphere (OECD and Eurostat 2005;
It occurs mostly in firms that respond to expected market opportunities by combining different types of knowledge, capabilities, skills and resources (Hall and Rosenberg 2010.
safeguarding‘variety'in the innovation system is key given the uncertainties that follow from new combinations of knowledge, applications and markets.
between industry and academia or between firms in a business cluster but also commonly occurs through more market-based mechanisms, such as user producer interactions and supply chains.
markets often do not exist or are developed weakly, particularly for radical innovatiions The innovation system therefore needs to create spaces, for example, through procurement policies, standards or regulations that nurture demand for innovations..
and conditions of market action if a newly effective form of social behaviour is coupled with a cultural shift in tastes
and creating spaces for market formatiion FTA PROCESSES lead not only to new combinations of Table 1. Innovation system functions
The incompatibility of existing visions which have lead to unsustainable solutions also has to be addressed in this process Create spaces for market formation Market formation means generating protected spaces for the supply side to experiment
procurement and other market-creating incentives Develop and mobilise resources The development and mobilisation of new resources translates into new skills (or reorientation of existing ones) and the reallocation of financial resources.
The collective knowledge creation enabled by the structuring role of FTA PROCESSES enables the articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions,
which contribuut to creating spaces for market formation. 5. 3 Building organisational capacity The capacity-building role of FTA refers to the enhancemeen of strategic capabilities and the responsiveness of individuals and organisations to emerging
and selection Knowledge diffusion Market formation Develop, mobilise resources FTA informing role FTA structuring role FTA capacity building role Innovation system functions FTA roles Figure 2. Contributions of FTA roles
Finally, the role of FTA in creating spaces for market formation, by means of articulating market-shaping expectations
and visions could be utilised when setting the common strategic research agenda as well as in the implementation phase with equal consideration of market applicability
and potential alongside research excellence. Last, but by no means least, the capacity-building benefits of FTA should not be neglected.
and understanndin their long-term implications Create spaces for market formation FTA's contribution to market formation tends to be more indirect, for example,
through articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions and conditions for coordination of market actors that these provide Structuring role of FTA allows consideration of future market applicability of different alternatives alongside with research excellence needed to foster their development Capacity
FTA supports articulation of market-shaping expectations and stakeholders'visions and in coordinating actors Develop
How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom. New haven and London: Yale university Press,<http://cyber. law. harvard. edu/wealth of networks/Main page>accessed Apr 2011.
Similarly, in many respects, breakthrough technologies due to developments in information and communiccatio technologies and nano-and biotechnologies have disruptive impacts on economies, markets and innovative consumer goods and services.
and demand-side measures to create innovation-friendly markets. Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
Optimising the market conditions. Competing visions and action plans to cope with transformations. Fragmented FTA Co-existence mode of governance.
For instance, integration in view of central planning vs. competition in view of market forces defining urban development Individual regional foresight project‘Embedding foresight in transnatiiona research programming'Deals with deliberate approach to both rapid
States and markets: The future preferences of states on socioeconomic development models will impact on international science.
The present range of options extends from market-based economies to stronger developmental state intervention to communism,
The funding and settings for international science will be influenced by the proportions of science conducted in nonacademic settings where market economy,
'Phase 3 saw the exercise shift its focus from preparing exploratory scenarios to the development of Engaged National Global Detached Science for sale in a global market place Globalism driven largely by multinationals An international division
The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
like the perspectives of users, societal regulation and markets, have become core parts of science, technology and, now, innovation policies.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
It thus helps to overhaul the so-called market lock in. Secondly, foresight stimulates new social structures and linkages that could be useful in fostering the circulation of information in the system.
and do not transform automatically through market transactions alone. Roadmapping can articulate these needs more explicitly
and when the demand could be articulated towards the emergence of a new market. There are several reasons why the existence of a market for new products cannot be taken for granted.
In some cases adopting new technologies is very slow due to high switching costs. In other cases, the market does not develop
because a pricing mechanism for the benefits is missing. This is common, for example, in environmental innovation.
A pricing regime for these externalities has to be established before a market can emerge. When executed well,
and depicts the participants'common understanding of future societal and market needs. The fourth way to use roadmaps is with visionary strategizing.
for example societal drivers, markets, soluttion and technologies in a certain timeframe. A roadmap can create an analytic structure for understandiin how
and the‘pull'driven by market demand are likely to match, and under which conditions.
yet in some cases the market development and actors play more imporrtan roles. In the first level, technology-based solutions, specific developments of technological solutions are depicted on a level that is assessed as necessary.
and market developments both the market segments and geograpphica market regions that are important for the technology-based solutions under scrutiny.
2 Technology developments 3 Technology developments 4 Present stage Needs and market developments 2 Needs and market developments 3 Needs and market developments 4 Present stage Enabling technologies, convergence
Needs and markets: segments, geography Capabilities, resources, actors (CRA) CRA developments 2 CRA developments 3 CRA developments 4 Figure 2. Generic structure of technology roadmap.
Victoria is sophisticated a market for green and intelligent buildings. It is among the first to adopt sustainable constructiio technologies and green business models in building and construction.
Victoria is a lead market for solutions suited for buildings in dry and warm climate conditions. 4. 2. 1 Drivers.
and environmennta protection, is a rising topic in the emerging markets of the Victorian construction industry.
while simultaneously creating market demand and business opportunities for existing and new players in the business.
The key policies can be categorized into the levels of drivers, markets, products and solutions, and technologies.
Sustainable construction in emerging markets; Demographic change in advanced economies DRIVERS: Support to strategy processes and global market foresight MARKETS:
Sub-optimisation, price dominates; Fragmented markets; Technically defined regulations; Demonstration projects exhibiting value of green building concepts 3d and product model technologies;
Standalone HVAC solutions; Energy management systems (EMS; Sensor technologies Product model technologies integrates building in urban infrastructure;
Self-powered wireless sensors Cost-efficiency Customer-driven, flexibility, accessibility MARKETS: Pricing values building performance over its life-cycle;
Building simulation services MARKETS (i e. demand side policies: From technically specified regulations toward performance based regulations;
T. Ahlqvist et al. to support regional strategy processes by executing systematti rounds of global market foresights.
At the level of markets, referring mainly to the demand-side policies, the first policy proposal was to move from techniccall specified regulations toward performance-based regulations.
It was assessed that Victoria should ambitiously target the creation of a lead market for green and intelligent buildinng that address dry climatic conditions.
In this roadmap, sectoral development is divided into the themes of market and solutiions The present markets are fragmented and emphasiiz suboptimization by price.
The regulations are defined mainly technically, and some demonstration projects exhibiitin the value of green building concepts have already been realized.
the markets are supposedly developing towards pricing that values building performance over its life cycle. Regulations are also developing in a performance-based direction as green building standards are increasingly going mainstream in new constructions.
In the market, this trajectory calls for new types of actors, system and subsystem integrators.
This also requires new energy market players that take the responsibility for aggregating the distributed energy resources to the grids.
and handle complex data on environmental sustainabiilit (automatically) are entering the market. In industry, new manufacturing paradigms are evolving
The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
large-scale diffusion of commercial innovatiion also requires the emergence of a specific market for new products.
However, when subject to systemic lock ins the emergence of such markets often depends on the formation of associated institutions.
Transforming the Market. Geneva: World Business Council for Sustainable development. Weber, M.,Kubeczko, K.,Kaufmann, A. and Grunewald, B. 2009)‘ Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
At present, research and innovation policies are challenged by global market conditions where Member States, regions or even industrial or local clusters compete for critical resourrces such as knowledge, human resources,
Graefe, A.,Luckner, S. and Weinhardt, C. 2010)‘ Prediction markets for foresight',Futures, 42: 394 404.
Fraunhofer future markets: From global challenges to dedicated, technological, collaborative research projects Kerstin Cuhls1,,*Alexander Bunkowski2 and Lothar Behlau2 1fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Breslauer Straße 48,76139 Karlsruhe,
future markets; grand challenges; global challenges; megatrends; societal demand. 1. Introduction: The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
That means following the principles of corporate social responsibility and developing new ways for Fraunhofer research markets of the future.
They change Fraunhofer future markets. 233 and invade patterns of civilisation, technology, economy, and value systems. Megatrends have a half-life of at least 50 years,
Megatrends are used also as a part of the evaluation in market studies and analysis (Frost and Sullivan, 2010.
therefore as an appropriate starting point for the Fraunhofer Future markets process. 2. 1. 4 Fourth example.
This financial model strengthens the competitiveness of the individual institutes in the industrial contract research market,
international measures in order to make debt sustainable in long term Fraunhofer future markets. 235 and intensifies cooperation between institutes to fully utilise the strength of its broad R&d portfolio with various measures.
which institutes team up to represent specific fields of expertise to the market (e g. water systems, cloud computing, lightweight structures etc.).
the identification of strategic future topics that will produce future contract research markets for Fraunhofer; serving urgent societal needs;
A needs-oriented approach and cross-institute problem-solving should open up new contract research markets in a 3 7 year perspective,
i e. an actual market perspective of 5 10 years. The process had a first top-down part, in
Fraunhofer future markets. 237 defined 15 global challenges. Each of the State of the Future challenges was discussed in great detail by a team in the Fraunhofer Society
Fraunhofer future markets. 239 Figure 5. Example of assessment for subchallenges and technological approaches. Figure 6. Overview of entire process. 240.
as well as the market potential for Fraunhofer that would be opened up through the project. A jury consisting of senior Fraunhofer experts
E5 million in funding for each challenge within the Future markets programme are to be spent (starting in 2011.
and technology organisations in Europe have their specific approaches to Fraunhofer future markets. 241 defining their R&d portfolio.
in emerging markets, protection from consequences Increasing conflicts within states Global governance will be sought Table 3. Proposals and teams Round 1 Challenge Project ideas Selected projects Teams involved
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
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