and long term) and roadmap layers (such as drivers, markets, and enabling technologies). In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,
markets, solutions, and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.
Scope is a more traditional insight into roadmapping methodology that separates, for example, technology roadmaps and market roadmaps.
markets, and also more Figure 3. An ideal model of the knowledge spaces in an RTO.
and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel
market features and actors Articulation of demand Identifying societal and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
and social/actor space are linked to a strategic perspective of the future, i e. a strong target Building strategic
and markets are created by socio-technical relationships. In the context of an RTO with an emphasis on technology development, this separation is, in our view,
It underlined, first, markets for the adoption of novel solutions, such as integrated ICT. Second, it perceived the market as a platform for new Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 831 Figure 4. The roadmapping process in the Building Services Roadmap (Paiho et al. 2007,
market-based visions were built on the basis of current technology trajectories and also by tracking disruptive alternatives Markets for adoption of novel solutions, e g. integrated ICT Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets,
e g. spread the vision of technological possibilities for rather conservative markets in building and construction Novel market features and actors were identified,
e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new
players Articulated demand opportunities especially in the advanced building service solutions Identified societal and market drivers,
e g. customised housing and indoor services Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 832 T. Ahlqvist et al. services and service providers.
In the social/actor space, the project aimed primarily to form capacities for linking knowledge internally atvtt, by combining construction expertise with ICT expertise.
The project endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in the renewal of building services markets.
It also enhanced capacity building for newintegrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new players.
for example, the identification of novel market features and actors, articulating demand opportunities in advanced building service solutions,
and assessing societal and market drivers. Service Science and Business network: strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
and attempted to define markets Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
and market drivers new visionary services; and securing the continuation of the developmental activities in the field.
the actual roadmapping process was able to endorse new ideas about markets, services, and solutions in the topic areas.
Technologies and markets. VTT Tiedotteita 2379. Edita, Helsinki In Finnish. Petrick, I. J, . and A e. Echols. 2004.
and the anticipated (disruptive) impacts on markets and on society are difficult (although not impossible) to foresee.
Our assessment of the competitor solar cells finds that DSSCS currently hold a minuscule share of the market,
advantages that these offer to potential applications, in particular markets; that is, cross-charting can suggest ways that particular technologies might link to potential applications.
Figure 5 presents a follow-on cross-chart to illustrate focus on a particular target market glass-walled building structures (especially greenhouses.
Laying out possible development pathways can help figure out which point towards more special applications (higher price) or niche markets.
or services offered to particular markets. Such an exploration should identify essential requirements for success that are not yet available.
From Figure 1 onwards, we are oriented towards the consideration of the target NEST with full awareness that it does not enter a vacuum it does not have the market to itself.
90 100%thin-film solar cell market Microcrystalline (mc-Si: H) silicon To use other semiconductors to replace silicon Cadmium sulphide (Cds) No vacuum processing Compound semiconduccto thin-film solar cells In research,
some of them will come to market soon Copper indium diselenide (CIS) Low temperature fabrication Cadmium telluride (Cdte) To improve efficiency (by nanotechnology) Enlarged the effective optical path for absorption...
the declining birth rate and aging population 11-B Management to prevent the decrease of competitiveness in the international market development of internationally competent people,
their potential impact and the opportunities (including market opportunities) they present for Ireland and the research areas that will be required to address the challenges and meet the opportunities''(Project Terms of Reference).
investment Smart travel Carbon taxes Transport market liberalisation versus environmental regulation Education and skills The knowledge economy ICT in education Social mobility and higher education Social
percent) Improving positions on international markets (31.6 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining 2 Technologies for environmentally safe processing
and recycling of consumer and industrial waste 96.7 2016 Contributing to dealing with social problems (79.5 percent) Improving positions on international markets (40.9 percent) Technologies for processing
and affected area) 96.1 2014 Contributing to dealing with social problems (73.8 percent) Improving positions on international markets (47 5 percent) Technologies for forecasting the state of the lithosphere
oil-and gas-saturated zones 95.7 2018 Improving positions on international markets (78.1 percent) Contributing to dealing with social problems (25 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining
and biomaterials 94.0 2018 Contributing to dealing with social problems (82.6 percent) Improving positions on international markets (50 percent) Technologies for processing
and evaluation criteria for emerging markets for products based on technologies developed within these technology groups. A number of criteria were used to assess these groups,
Experts also estimated the potential for implementing large-scale innovative projects based on the results achieved and the market prospects for relevant innovation products.
‘‘increasing share at global market'',contribution to social development'',competitiveness at domestic markets'',integration to global value chain''.
together with the most promising markets (and their specific segments) and appropriate innovative product groups with the potential to significantly increase the competitiveness of Russian natural resources companies.
B key areas to strengthen positions of Russian producers in global markets on the basis of technological advantages;
and innovation policy it is necessary to have more detailed and precise information about resource requirements, the evaluation of emerging markets,
financial and infrastructure) for the most important and well-developed topics and their market prospects FS2 The evaluation of technology groups (as combinations of the most important and well-developed topic on the basis of the results of FS1) by the following criteria:
of markets and segments where Russia can improve its position Detailed description of chosen groups The most important innovation projects The most important research projects In particular,
the most promising markets (and their segments) for Russian natural resources companies. Assessment of personnel, financial and technological requirements,
Therefore, the ability to access new markets can only be prepared if knowledge about competitor's intention and capabilities can be monitored.
Without such knowledge the capacity to access existing and new markets and to identify and maintain the basis of competitive advantage will be limited (Powell and Bradford, 2000).
and staying abreast of technological change, acquiring an advanced understanding of technology and its potential market shifting effects,
Barney, J. B. 1986),‘Strategic factor market: expectations, luck, and business strategy'',Management Science, Vol. 32 No. 10, pp. 1231-41.
where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.
thus limiting the scale of failures (with a focus on market pull vis-à-vis the technology push approach).
and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
Online 5 (1)( 2010) 56 71.7 M. Cooke, N. Buckley, Web 2. 0, social networks and the future of market research, Int. J. Mark.
regional economic policy, project management and market research. He has been involved in a diversity of European-wide research projects (the most recent one on Visions for the European research area)
and develop differentiated products to capture the market 35. This method can be used not only in NBS but also in other technology fields,
Futures research methodology Version 3. 0.,Millennium Project, WFUNA, WASHINGTON DC, 2009, Chapter 8. 35 E t. Popper, B. D. Buskirk, Technology life cycles in industrial markets, Ind.
and has won the status of a dnatural lawt of technology diffusion due to its considerable success as an empirically descriptive and heuristic device capturing the essential changing nature of technologies, products, markets and industries.
and has won the status of a dnatural lawt of technology diffusion due to its considerable success as an empirically descriptive and heuristic device capturing the essential changing nature of technologies, products, markets and industries.
or simply among products struggling for a bigger market share. It is well known the case of the pioneering work of Fisher
dgenotypest by any sequence of building blocks, ddifferential reproductive successt by differential adoption in a market and dphenotypet by technical expression. $ My final argument favoring an evolutionary definition of innovation regards the aspect mentioned above of how strongly evolutionary
Delphi and prediction markets contain fundamental weaknesses. Popper et al. 13 state that the traditional methods all founder on the same shoals:
Although new sustainable energy technologies are entering the market, their contribution to the total amount of energy generation is still relatively small.
Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
and price bidding in the electricity market, which are directly related to load dispatching to take place in the market.
The long-term decisions are related to capacity investment and decommissioning, which decisions are expected mainly based on lifetime of the technology used in a generation unit.
Foresight analysis for world agricultural markets (2020) and Europe. www. ag2020. org 2. Danish Technology foresight on Environmentaall Friendly Agriculture K. Borch,(in press) The Danish Technology foresight
and future market assessment were used to identify the promising areas of the field and to assess the market potentials of future nano-applications.
In 1998 these early monitoring and forecasting activities were followed by an initiative of the BMBF to establish the first six national nanotechnology competence centers with annual funding.
For decades the dominant definition of innovation as new products and processes that are introduced to the market combined with the common understanding of companies as the main actors in this process was questioned hardly ever.
Sophisticated filters would automatically extract ideas with outstanding market potential. Changes in the behaviour or the use of a product would be detected without delay
The position of markets as the main mediator between innovation demand and supply is challenged by several newinnovation patterns.
Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change, Wiley, Chichester; Weinheim u. a.,2005.10 R. Rothwell, Successful industrial innovation:
Largely conceived in the light of market failure arguments that sat comfortably with the neoliberal economic paradigm,
is more likely to see Grand challenges as an opportunity for innovation and new markets. An important question to ask is
For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
including (a) the Danish position between liberal and coordinated market economies, (b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making,
In an influential book‘Varieties of capitalism'23 the political economists Hall and Soskice distinguish between Liberal Market economies (LME) and‘Coordinated Market economies (CME.
‘‘tend to rely on markets to coordinate endeavours in both financial and industrial relation systems''.''while CME‘‘.
‘‘have institutions in both spheres that reflect higher levels of non-market coordination''24. Examples of LME are Britain, Ireland, Australia, New zealand, Canada and the USA.
due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
which could also contribute to new markets. The view of the author is that Regulatory foresight is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify, in advance, future challenges for their regulatory regimes,
continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
and constraints of traditional market innovation research and enhance users'input into innovation. The remainder of the paper is organised as follows:
Although it is argued that they are merely ahead of the rest of the market 23,
Lead Users cannot simply be considered as representative for the wider population and other market segments.
Yet, Lead User input can to some extent help to lower uncertainty regarding possible future needs and markets.
and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
'and is situated at the intersection of Foresight, user/market research and humancenntre product design. It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,
%For the identification of these future user needs, we adopted an approach based on the first steps of Lead User-market research 23,25 and inspired by the idea of‘crowdsourcing'26.
Their role was to evaluate the ideas in terms of market potential(‘now'and‘in five years),
The results are given in Table 1. The column‘market potential now'shows the mean estimated potential for the Lead User-idea at the moment the K. De Moor et al./
They even consider it to have the lowest actual market potential for digital TV-users.
The open source, gaming, video surveillance and smart home-ideas are considered also as having less market potential,
we argue that it differs from traditional approaches in market innovation research. First of all, user surveys are used traditionally rarely at the early, exploratory stages of the development process and with the purpose of detecting future needs or opportunities.
, for concept testing, preparing for market introduction, assessment of adoption potential. Secondly, this study was part of a larger research project
whereas In traditional market research, the involvement of current or future users is often still cross-sectional and not based on a continuous interaction 7. In this respect,
Idea Market potential now(%)Market potential+5y(%)In development Implemented 5y Virtual digicorder 23.7 48.2 13 13 Visual EPG 13.1 37.7 10
These specific needs may arise in other market segments at a later stage. However, it is also possible that other users never experience the same or similar needs:
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
and internal and external paths to market, as firms look to advance their technology''6. Since Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
and in scientific discoveries and technological knowledge, leading to the development of products and services. 2. Market pull:
and start with discovering market and societal needs which form the basis of innovation processes. Therein, technologies suitable for new products and services that satisfy the previously identified market
and societal needs are developed. 3. Parallel processes: innovation processes start with a new technology or with market needs.
Innovation processes become less linear and feedback and feed-forward linkages are established. 4. Innovation in systems or networks:
The project was intended to increase the understanding of the US car market by having managers live with ordinary American families for a certain time
Innovation processes Futures research Generation 1 Technology push Technology forecasting Generation 2 Market pull Technology assessment Generation 3 Coupled innovation processes Exploratory futures research Generation
1) The USA and Asia were traditionally stronger than Europe in the ICT markets. The EICT was founded to concentrate innovation activities of its partners in Europe.
The internal ambitions of the partners involved being successful in international markets and the external trend that ICT is becoming increasingly important in all business areas provided the foundation for this vision. 4. 2. 2. Process model The activities of the EICT itself can be interpreted as an innovation process model.
Also, the risk and investments involved in taking innovations to the market can be shared. Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks
New businesses and markets are explored using a variety of methods, including methodologies combining scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis,
whereas companies were interested more in exploiting and diffusing innovations to a broader market. Also Rijkswaterstaat was interested primarily in innovations that addressed societal challenges
and the aim of universities to transfer research results to the market on the other side.
Moreover, its thematic focus fields reflect external developments of the market and technological developments. The organizational build up basically a businesslike setup that includes a supervisory board with representatives from the partner organizations
factors in new product success, European Journal of Marketing 14 (1980) 277 292.2 J. Tidd, Managing Innovation Integrating Technological, Market and Organization Change
. Zook, Open-market innovation, Harvard Business Review 80 (2002) 80 89.12 O. Gassmann, E. Enkel, H. Chesbrough, The future of open innovation, R&d
and has worked previously in innovation policy, general economic policy and market research. Dr Jennifer Cassingena Harper is the director of policy within the Malta Council for Science and Technology with responsibility for national research and innovation strategy and foresight.
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
causing disruptions in selected markets or creating brand new markets, potentially changing the competiitiv environment of entire countries.
Disruptions are therefore as much a threat to inflexible older businesses as an opportunity for more flexible new entrants.
She is currently in charge of the SIMPHS project dealing with market and innovation dynamics around personal health systems.
The risk of the first situation is that the overall size of the market for content may be fragmented smaller,
and subject to a lower rate of growth precisely because of the absence of platform (mass markets) and commodity orientation.
The above technology and social/societal trends and the way they interact with one another provide intereestin insights for market players devising business plans
and actors along the various value chains for reasons inherent in the varying degree of digitisation in each sub-sector and the market structures that have prevailed in each domain until recently.
of the entire creative content market in Europe Political and legal issues Six theses, e g.
The economic framework (competitive markets and entrepreneurialism vs. oligopolistic and‘walled off'markets) and social values (positive public attituud of potential users towards and high demand for new creative content products and services vs. negatiiv public attitude and lack of demand
a closed and regulated market which is dominated by a few globally actiiv companies. Open innovation society: a situation where all Figure 4. Positioning of the four scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards creative content, lack of demand Positive public
Consequently, our impact assessment focused on four categories of issues (technology, regulatory, market and user related), each encompassing a number of sub-issues.
and mechanisms that influence market uptaak and diffusion along the creative content value chain (see Figure 5),
market-related issues (e g. development of new, sustainable business models; and societal sustainability issues (e g. user empowermeent cultural diversity.
depending on their market position. The challeeng is to grasp the current situation and emerging trends by involving those who know best,
however, on the need for European research) policy action in these areas, would require looking at expected market and systte failures,
) The basic elements of a generic roadmap representiin market, products, technology, R&d programs, and resources, were changed into the elements listed below:
and content on the one hand (Yovanof and Hazapis, 2008) and hyper-competition and increased market liberalization on the other,
or sustain a leading market position in the ICT industry have increasinngl been forced into accelerated product developmeen
there has been an explosion of nondisruuptiv innovations that are not always clearly different from other products on the market (De Marez and Verleye, 2004;
In this changed context, many new products fail to‘cross the chasm'between the adoption segmeent that include innovators and some early adopteer on the one hand and the mass market on the other (Moore, 2002;
The final aim is to reach the rest of the market, to the point where the adoptiio rate has become so high that the innovation can be considered successful (this is referred to as the‘critical mass')(Rogers, 1995).
she worked for a commercial market research agency. She joined MICT in 2005. Her research interests and publications lie in the field of quantitative survey analysis,
The main contribution of this work involves the development of a‘segmentation forecastting tool for prior-to-launch prediction of adoption potentiial and the development of a blueprint for better introduction strategies for ICT innovations in today's volatile market environment.
Finally, the third stage (test market and pilotinng consisted of an evaluation of the results from the second stage on an individual application level
-and market-oriented research conducted by the Research group for Media and ICT and Wireless and Cable Research group, both affiliated to IBBT and Ghent University.
and identify appropriiat market segments. For this concept evaluation phase, we conducted a major survey among the i-City panel (n=420.
they can also be considered as a potential added value domain for mobile city applications for a certain part of the market. 16 applications could not be clustered
we take a look at the test market phase. One application, i e. mobile news, was selected from the list by the industtr partners for further development
Drawiin on results selected from three distinct points of user involvement in the process of developing new products (i e. opportunity identification, concept evaluation and test market),
Innovation and Market research. In The Internatioona Handbook on Innovation, L V Shavinina (ed.),pp 835 844.
which were used first in labour market evaluations, have also been applied to evaluate the technology programmes of European countries (see Almus and Czarnitzki,
The reasons for such‘market failure'that leads to underinvesstmen in innovative activities could be:
informatiiona imperfections, informational externalities due to knowledge spillovers, financial market failurre or shortages of highly qualified personnel (Nelsoon 1959;
Thus, public fiscal policies to support innovation are designed to alleviate particcula forms of market failure that would lead to under-investment.
otherwise have difficulty funding themselves in the capital market. In practice, identifyyin the firm or project categories that should be subsidized requires difficult judgements to be made.
and market dynamics. Luarent Donzé has been an associate professor at the Univerrsit of Fribourg, Switzerland since 2002.
sales of new products new to the firm or to the market as a percentage of total sales;
and sales of products new to the market worldwide. We use several innovation indicators in order to test the robustness of our results given that innovation is a latent phenomenon
or to market as a percentage of total sales Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of products new to market worldwide as a percentage of total sales Yes Yes Yes Yes Notes:*
For the outputorieente indicators the differences vary significantly between only 9 11%for the qualitative selfassesssmen of the technical importance of the innovattion introduced and a threefold to fivefold larger magnitude in the case of sales of products new to the market.
total sales Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of products new to the firm or to the market as a percentage of total sales Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of products new to the market worldwide as a percentage of total sales Yes Yes Yes Yes Notes:*
(either new to the firm or new to the market) amounting to 18.20-8. 00=10.20 percentage points as well as for significantly improved products (amounting to 14.90-7. 60=7. 30 percentage points) are even larger.
firm or to market as percentage of total sales 15.73 (0. 57) 17.24 (1. 39) 27.46 (2. 27) 10.22 (2. 73) Yes Sales of products new to
market worldwide as a percentage of total sales 4. 44 (0. 39) 3. 01 (0. 36) 15.58 (2. 10) 12.57 (2. 10) Yes Notes:*
or to market as a percentage of total sales 15.73 (0. 57) 17.28 (0. 27) 27.46 (2. 27) 10.18 (2. 34) Yes Sales of products new to market worldwide
firm or to market as ercentage of total sales 15.73 (0. 57) 16.94 (0. 30) 27.46 (2. 27) 10.52 (2. 36) Yes Sales of products new to
market worldwide as percentage of total sales 4. 44 (0. 39) 5. 82 (0. 17) 15.58 (2. 10) 9. 76 (2. 10
firm or to market as percentage of total sales 15.73 (0. 57) 16.94 (0. 30) 27.46 (2. 27) 10.52 (2. 36) Yes Sales of products new to
market worldwide as a percentage of total sales 4. 44 (0. 39) 5. 82 (0. 17) 15.58 (2. 10) 9. 76 (2. 10
or modified (already existing) products as percentage of total sales 13.90 Yes 8. 20 Yes Yes Sales of products new to firm or to market as percentage of total sales 17.90 Yes 7. 10 Yes Yes Sales
of products new to market worldwide as percentage of total sales 15.50 Yes 9. 80 Yes Yes Notes:*
or modified (already existing) products as percentage of total sales 14.10 Yes 7. 20 Yes Yes Sales of products new to firm or to market as percentage of total sales 17.90 Yes 7. 70 Yes Yes Sales
of products new to market worldwide as percentage of total sales 12.60 Yes 7. 20 Yes Yes Notes:*
or modified (already existing) products as percentage of total sales 14.40 Yes 7. 60 Yes Yes Sales of products new to firm or to market as percentage of total sales 18.10 Yes 8. 10 Yes Yes Sales
of products new to market worldwide as percentage of total sales 13.10 Yes 7. 20 Yes Yes Notes:*
or to market as a percentage of total sales 18.20 Yes 8. 00 Yes Yes Sales of products new to market worldwide as a percentage of total sales 12.60 Yes 7 10 Yes Yes Notes:*
French and Italian. 4. The expression‘treatment effect'comes from labour market research, where individuals are treated'via a concrete policy measure.
The economics and econometrics of active labour market programmes. In Handbook of Labour Economics, A Ashenfelter and P E Todd (eds.
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