managing and interpreting the outcomes of Foresight exercises that involve leaders from a diverse range of governments,
1 UK Ministry of Defence, UK Foresight Office Horizon scan; Global Futures Forum Vancouver April 2008, Europe@2025 European commission.
In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
to be based in the Foresight directorate of the Government office for Science (see www. foresight. gov. uk). As another example,
Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
Taleb 10 has derived also a series of principles for organizations governments to try to avoid he kinds of disruptions that Black swan events tend to cause.
when discontinuities occur in society and government, the changes tend to be more significant because they can alter so many other domains. 2. 5. Weak signals The final key term is‘‘weak signals''.
, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?
governance in dealing with critical issues Escalation of terrorism and political instability Increased global unrest related to resource shortage and affordability Nationalist and nativist backlash prevents the world from realising globalization
The responses from the respondents from governments were balanced more between long, medium and short time horizons.
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
Respondents from Academia and Government took the lead in drivers assessment with 32%and 25%respectively.
On the contrary, the respondents from Government, Business, and other Table 3 Examples of drivers. Examples of critical drivers by category A b c Society & Culture 46 Increased citizen participation with the help of collaborative Web tools International mobility of educated workforce improves cultural
Cyber crime and network vulnerabilities from failure of human systems Increased barriers to access to natural resources Growing organizational and governance incapacity Water recognised as a valuable resource
it is the opposite for the participants from the Government, where the majority (40%)has a shorter time horizon for the occurrence of wild cards.
with the next area being new governance models. Overall, the lists provide a fertile field for some real dramatic change scenarios centred on some key discontinuities.
NGOS and Students were identical, where about 52%of the respondents suggested medium level of likelihood. 50%of the respondents from Government and Business stated high likelihood of occurrence.
and Governments who consider that most of the weak signals will occur in the mid-term (2016 2025).
and coherence of the response of national governments to the emerging economic difficulties was evidence that appropriate anticipatory intelligence was in place and available.‘‘
government led foresight programs need to focus on a clearly identified client, there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.
''These themes were reflected in the expert interviews. Based on experience of formal evaluation of foresight programs, it was claimed that‘‘lack of success had very little to do with the quality of the work that has been done and much more to do with initial and subsequent political positioning''.
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
Jack Smith Government of Canada. Greg Teggart Victoria University, Australia. Sandy Thomas Foresight, UK Government office for Science.
References 1 L. Fitton, Cassandra: Cursed Prophetess, 1998, accessed at http://www. arthistory. sbc. edu/imageswomen/papers/fittoncassandra/intro. html. 2 For example V. van Rij, Joint horizon scanning:
FTA Conference, Seville, 2008.3 J. Calof, J. Smith, Critical success factors for government led foresight, in:
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government, where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime minister's Office. Findings The backcasting methodology
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
Prime minister's Office is in charge of the work for each government foresight report. The work is carried out in co-operation especially with the Ministries relevant as regards the topic of the foresight report
as well as with other ministries and public organisations. Also a large group of experts from research institutes, private companies,
and non-governmental organisations (NGOS) are consulted during this process. In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
In the course of the work for the foresight report discussed here, the government commissioned several studies on issues concerning the effects
and ways to prevent or adapt to climate change. Among the things investigated were prerequisites for the global limitation of climate change,
Before and partly simultaneously while preparing the government foresight report on climate and energy policy, the government also decided on a long-term climate
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050: development that will contribute to limiting the rise in the global average temperature to two degrees Celsius at the most,
Prior to FFRC's involvement in the task, the Prime minister's Office had collected a team of experts who were to be used as panellists in the exercise.
The people invited to futures workshops were selected in co-operation with the scenario team of the Prime minister's Office
environmental scanning Review on the background reports commissioned by the Prime minister's Office, specifying the end future state that the development paths are aiming and based on this material,
designing the first questionnaire Defining the expert group involved in the futures workshops together with the Prime minister's Office's scenario team 1st Delphi round October 2008 Delphi:
The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration NGOS, energy business and researchers of various fields,
In government foresight process, the majority of participants were experts but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
the Prime minister's Office took the scenario process further and commissioned detailed descriptions of the development paths towards the described end states that would fulfil the two-degree target,
The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
and the staff of the Prime minister's Office on whether or not attaching numerical values to scenarios stretching all the way to year 2050 is advisable.
External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009.
A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
This internal evaluation was conducted by the Prime minister's office. One has to bear in mind that the evaluation concerned the whole foresight report,
of which the FFRC's scenario work represented only one part. The Prime minister's Office also wanted to publish the scenario process as such (Lauttama ki and Heinonen
2010), since a lot of public interest was directed towards it and the full scenarios were published only as attachments in the completed foresight report.
All in all, three evaluations of the government futures report were conducted where the scenario process was discussed also:
The Committee for the Future (2011) supported the government foresight report. The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
The extent of constructing scenarios in the government foresight report was defined as unique and pioneering. Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well,
and Energy for the next government was proposed also. Concerning the application of foresight methodologies used in this kind of work
Prime minister's Office organised a gathering on March 29, 2011 for those involved in the foresight report work to discuss retrospectively the process
Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
remarked on that occasion that it was a major breakthrough achievement to have committed Finland to reducing its emissions to a sustainable level by at least 80 per cent from the 1990 level by 2050.
It is interesting to note that the results produced in the FFRC's process were altered slightly as they were presented in the final publication by the Prime minister's Office.
An open question remains how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in Government Foresight report.
Notes 1. Summary of the strategy is available on the web site of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy:
2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
He has worked on a number of futures-oriented research and development projects with several Finnish ministries and security organisations and in several EU-funded research projects.
it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government, as well as its official name:
The third level relates to the societal level, where governments, NGO's and other societal actors articulate the social, political and economic aspects of the new technological field.
Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments
and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements
governments and research institutes already have high stakes in the future application. To illustrate, it is estimated that governments
and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,
First, the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering in the UK have incorporated these issues into their study (commissioned by the UK government,
The most outstanding support elements of the urban planning process are the governance model the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills.
Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies, which take into consideration local interests
In Scenario A, there are significant improvements in the governance model at the local level. Progress is reflected by transparent decision-making, effective public participation, public-private co-operation and better coordination among different levels of administration.
Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque
A strong government, backed by a wide spectrum of the electorate, is formed to implement effective policies against the economic and environmental crisis. Regional
In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.
This governance model allows for direct feedback by citizens'groups to public authorities, its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority
so that it can implement an advanced, transparent governance model. Suggested strategies for Scenario B. In the predator development scenario
Suggested strategies for Scenario C. The back to basics scenario is dominated by a high level of social frustration due to a longstanding economic recession and the lack of an adequate response by previous governments.
B Build a governance model that is capable of effectively integrating politicians, stakeholders, social movements and citizens on an equal footing.
B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
as well as in governance and business models. The second set of findings shows the advisability of reinforcing foresight tools to make them more attractive and reliable for urban planners.
which altogether can help to improve a territory's governance. In brief the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes
His professional and academic interests are focussed on strategic planning, territorial foresight and governance studies. He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools.
or the continuous expansion of the predominant role of private governance mechanisms or the reinstatement of state-connected institutions and legal regimes.
which go hand in hand with a growing dominance of public-private or even private governance mechanisms.
Foresight is a place where governments can and will try to stabilise, naturalise their roles, institutions jostle for positions,
''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
European commission (2002), European Governance: Better Lawmaking, COM (2002) 275 Final, European commission, Brussels. Gasco'n, G. 2005),‘Compstat Plus:
and deployed with significant participation of national governments for dcustomerst in politics like parliaments or administrations.
the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed. First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
This is due to many reasons: Globalisation has altered the roles and influence of national policies and industries, political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
and new governance structures are evolving, reflecting growing interdependence and complexity and the need for decision-making under uncertainty.
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
They argue that, in addition to governments firms should also take a share of the responsibility for educating society
and sectors of society probabilistically to express their relevant uncertainties How to deepen dialogue with society How to improve governance Because of the dominant role of subjective opinion,
business government and elsewhere, is already possible but limited by human and search engine factors. Data mining is far from a new idea, the possibilities
) Table 2. Foresight objectives in relation to the arenas of governance. Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
and how this affects the decisions of engineers, businesses and governments. It investigates how researchers,
businesses and governments derive their agendas from their collectively created images of a promising technology
Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,
In companies, public organisations and in ministries foresight exercises are conducted for many reasons and with different effects.
governments tend to follow the choices of other governments. In most OECD countries, for instance, nanotechnology is listed now as top priority;
referring to the efforts other governments have planned (Berube 2006. 5. Conclusion Foresight exercises can be seen as formal articulations of possible futures,
inform and coordinate efforts in research, firms and government. These overviews allowed us to draw lessons for foresight.
Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy for their financial support and Marjolein van Asselt for her important comments.
New approaches to governance. Futures 43, no. 3: 279 91. Coates, V.,M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H. A. Linstone, C. Pistorius,
Slow technologies and government intervention: Energy efficiency in industrial process technologies. Technovation 26, no. 9: 1029 44.
civil society and governments the truth is that all three sectors have to advance more or less at the same speed and in the same direction.
In this context, the kind of dialogue required across a business network demands the inclusiiv participation of governments and overall societies,
However, both governments and firms should take part of the responsibility for educating society and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue,
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Paper prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union.
and innovation services to enterprises, governments, and other clients. Arnold, Clark, and Jávorka (2010,7) assert that RTOS play important roles in the European innovation system and in de facto European research area policies,
either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
Second, the public organisations are increasingly facing societal demands to move towards more transitional mission-oriented governance regimes,
we observe that the Japanese government did cancel solar energy subsidies in 2006. After 2006, DWPI patents resume growth,
For instance, does need a particular call for government funding or standard setting? Do any requisite developments call for partnering among certain organisations (and, if so, which?
which started in 2001 and 2006 (Government of Japan, 2001,2006), strategic prioritization was the basic principle in drawing up related policies except for those related to basic research.
In the Fourth Basic Plan (Government of Japan 2011) the focus on a problem-solving approach becomes more apparent:
Government of Japan (2001), The 2nd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Government of Japan (2006), The 3rd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Government of Japan (2011), The 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
governments provide a foundation and framework for research, set focus areas, and thus ultimately shape the future.
and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research related to transferring results from foresight and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
PAGE 20 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 B multi-stakeholder dialogues for governance on an international level, for example in the environmental area;
Table I their relevance to strategic dialogues for transferring the results of foresight activities and similar strategy processes into research policy development. 3. The situation in Germany To support research policy development the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
and guidelines that are set at higher levels of the government institutions they work in. If those priorities change either in the light of foresight results
or through unrelated shifts (e g. change of government after an election) then belief networks of research policy makers can be affected.
since government institutions need to be careful about raising expectations that may remain unfulfilled. On a positive note
Finally, beyond the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, other governmental institutions might need to be involved, for example other federal ministries, state governments and district and city councils.
if already relevant, other federal ministries. This can be achieved in a joint meeting or interactive workshop session.
and brings in expertise on the subject matter from outside the ministry. A small number of selected experts covering different aspects of the subject matter and a variety of perspectives are selected
At this point, BMBF units as well as other relevant ministries are brought together again to review the results
and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
In addition, contact with three other German federal ministries was established. To transfer the results of the focus area‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''into activities,
and for involving the public (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, 2010b). 5. 3 Strategic dialogue to develop a model for public private partnerships A third example of a successful strategic dialogue was the definition of a novel type of innovation cluster across academia and industry implemented as public private partnerships.
B consideration of the existing structure of departments within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments;
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2010a),‘BMBF Foresight'',available at: www. bmbf-foresight. de (accessed May 1, 2011.
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2010b),‘Zukunftsbild Morgenstadt'',available at: www. bmbf. de/pubrd/morgenstadt. pdf (accessed May 1, 2011.
where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences
Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
policy strategy. 5 has had your organisation contact with other governments internationally in discussing these drivers and trends?
1. Global governance and political economy; 2. Social values; 3. Climate change; 4. Demographic pressures; 5. Mobility and transport;
Table III List of thematic groups, drivers and trends identified Theme Drivers and trends Global governance and political economy Rise of the BRICS Global trade falters The emergence of new
middle classes Uncertain results for banking regulation A challenge to liberal democracy models Conflict follows geopolitical shifts Terrorism continues to pose a threat to security A multi-polar governance system Religion
Ireland‘‘punches above its weight''in international arenas achieving a strong reputation as an independent country with good governance and respect for its global commitments and partnerships.
Its strong institutional and governance arrangements are an advantage as a small, smart country. However, Ireland is challenged in maintaining this position as the smaller countries become increasingly marginalised within multilateral frameworks
and where the traditional political and governance models are being disrupted. How can Ireland maintain its standing
it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,
In 2007, the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the National S&t Foresight until 2025 to identify S&t priorities (Sokolov, 2008a,2009.
Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.
The third foresight study commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology was devoted to exactly this task:
B Direct impact (medium) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at Ministry level (corresponding decisions could concern the forming of a research agenda, budget allocation, etc..
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
were identified in the course of a special study commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology.‘‘
Also, suggestions on amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed. As an example, below are presented priorities for innovation-based development of the‘‘industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage''sphere:
and commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology (because the focus of FS3 is in the the sphere of responsibility of this Ministry).
Also, the results of FS1 and FS2 that showed the crucial support measures for the government (FS1)
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation
because the results were used for decision-making at the level of the Ministry. At the same time the FS2 project showed that for full use of the priorities identified for the natural resources sector,
Also, suggestions for amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed Update of the list of innovation priorities PAGE 50 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 create an adequate management system for the sector.
In the framework of this study proposals to amend the relevant RF Ministry of Natural resources strategic documents (for example, Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation
proposals to amend relevant strategic documents of the RF Ministry of Natural resources (e g. Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation, federal law‘‘About Environmental Protection,
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists compiled as a basis for selection of the projects to be funded.
Future challenges to the Finnish Forest Sector, University of Joensuu and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, available at:
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